Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/6/17

The MLB throws us the first curveball of the season with this weird all-day slate. While I love baseball all day long, I would prefer 1 or 2-time slots where a majority start. Still, it's pretty cool to have so many options. Remember, we are in the 3rd/4th game for most of these teams, so the gas cans are coming out to play. We have a whole bunch of gas cans on the mound today with only a couple somewhat reliable arms. Let's take a look at the top plays from each position. Feel free to comment below or join the live chat at the bottom of the page. You can also find me on twitter @ VarneyDFS.

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Pitcher

Early

Brandon McCarthy FD 6300 DK 7200
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @LAD
FD - 34.52 DK - 22.57

The Padres are a team we will be targeting a lot with pitchers this year. If you play NBA DFS, think the Nets. The Padres only have 1 or 2 guys in positive match-ups each night and even those guys aren't great. Brandon McCarthy isn't great either. He's a slightly above-average pitcher with a whole lot to prove this year. He returned from Tommy John last year, but only pitched 40 innings. It will be interesting to see how he can handle a fresh season from start to finish. However, fatigue shouldn't be a problem today. McCarthy is a very smart pitcher and should be able to work around this lineup extremely easily. He's worse against lefties, but not by much. The Padres currently have the lowest implied team total on the all-day slate at 3.13, which is barely less than the Braves at 3.36. When Matt Harvey is facing a team as bad as the Braves and the Padres STILL have a lower total, you know how bad they are. McCarthy is a superior cash game play in the early slate and makes sense in tournaments on a slate with no good pitching.

Gio Gonzalez FD 8400 DK 8400
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @WSH
FD - 31.12 DK - 20.51

Pitching on this early slate is absolutely horrible. I don't really like Gio Gonzalez and neither does the optimizer. With that being said, it likes guys like James Shields and Jered Weaver a lot less. Admittedly, Gio Gonzales has a lot of upside. This Marlins lineup is pretty atrocious and does have the upside to strikeout a ton. Giancarlo Stanton is obviously the one huge issue and Gio should be in for a solid game if he can get around him. Gonzalez was good against both righties and lefties in 2016, but struck out lefties at a much better clip. He also holds runners well, which is a big deal when the offense is somewhat hinged on Dee Gordon and his speed. McCarthy is a lot cheaper and safer, so in cash games, that's where I'm going. In tournaments, however, nobody on this early slate has anywhere near the upside. If you do roster Gio and have any heart problems, please don't watch the game. No matter the outcome, he will have a couple innings where he almost falls apart.

Main

Matt Harvey FD 8300 DK 8100
Opponent - ATL (Garcia) Park - @NYM
FD - 32.49 DK - 21.29

Pitching is not good on this late slate. Outside of Matt Harvey, good luck. We will touch on a guy with some upside, but he's as uncertain as the rest. Harvey is the only guy I have trust in on this slate and will have him in 100% of my cash games. The Braves aren't necessarily horrible against righties, but they do lack the power to hurt them. They don't strikeout a ton, which is usually worrisome. For Harvey however, he doesn't have issues getting strikeouts. He will still average his 1 K per inning and will just have to make sure he avoids the big inning. Harvey is a top 3 pitcher in baseball when his stuff is working. He can be a pretty average one when his fastball can't be located, as his movement decreases and he can get absolutely smacked. He has looked good in the spring training, which speaks more to his health than it does his actual performance against AA players. Harvey will be really highly owned and rightfully so on the late slate.

Joe Musgrove FD 7400 DK 7000
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @HOU
FD - 29.6 DK - 19.53

Joe Musgrove is kind of like a mini Lance McCullers. The K rate isn't as crazy but it's still very high. He has a ton of upside in any match-up and with the Mariners struggling, I don't mind him. The Astros will have no problem putting up runs against Ariel Miranda and as long as Musgrove can last 5, he should get the win. With that being said, Cano and Cruz could easily put some in the seats and have him out by the 3rd inning. With Harvey likely being 60-80% owned even in tournaments, there's something to be said for the fade. This is baseball and nobody will be surprised if Harvey stumbles. Musgrove allows you to grab a few expensive bats and get a high-upside pitcher at 10% owned.

Catcher

Early

Victor Martinez FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.29 DK - 6.86

James Shields is a lot like Jered Weaver. Atrocious. While he used to be good. he is now a HR machine that gives up nearly a .400 wOBA to lefties. Martinez may not be the power hitter he once was from the left side, but still has the poise and approach he has always carried. I expect Martinez to have a solid year after a somewhat rocky 2016 season. On FanDuel, you plug him in. He's far too cheap and we're lucky to have him at catcher. He is far and away better than any other option on this slate. On Draftkings, there is definitely more of a discussion. James Shields gave up a .370 wOBA to lefties in 2016, which is impressive next to his .384 wOBA against righties. Kidding aside, get V-Mart in there.

Yasmani Grandal FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.25 DK - 6.65

Grandal started off the season on fire, hitting 2 home runs from both sides of the plate on opening day. Since, he's gone 0-for-7. You can go ahead and ignore both the 2 HR game and the 0 for 7. Both are a great example of how sample size can change how so many people think of a guy. His ownership has slightly decreased each day since the HR's and he should be pretty low here, especially on FD where most will be on V-Mart. Grandal is good against righties, sporting a .351 wOBA in 2016. Jered Weaver has managed to find a way into the Padres rotation, which will allow us to target him every single time he pitches. He is easily one of the worst pitchers in baseball against both lefties and righties. This entire Dodgers lineup is in play and I will likely have 3 or 4 of them in my cash game lineup. Grandal is a great place to start at catcher.

Main

Buster Posey FD 3700 DK 4200
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.98 DK - 8.16

The Diamondbacks keep tossing lefties and we'll keep tossing Posey. While he hasn't had a huge game just yet, he has had a hit in each of the first 3 games, with 2 last night. Robbie Ray is the worst lefty to face Posey yet and I don't see it turning out well for him. Posey has demolished left-handed pitching for years now and ended with a .381 wOBA in 2016. Chase Field is a huge bump for these Giants hitters, as AT&T Park is probably the worst park in the league for righties. Posey is priced fairly around the industry and I see no reason to fade in cash games. He's an extremely safe bet at a position that lacks just that. Posey will be a lock in my lineups. If you need to get off of him for whatever reason, take a look at Evan Gattis. He faces a lefty in Ariel Miranda and has 2 HR upside on any given night.

First Base

Early

Adrian Gonzalez FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.57 DK - 6.98

With MLB starting up and the NBA being an absolute mess every night, my brain has joined. I say that to ask for forgiveness if I call the Dodgers the Clippers or make one too many MLB-NBA comparisons that make no literal sense. All joking aside, Adrian Gonzalez is a lot like Mike Conley. At least perception-wise. Gonzalez is at a flashy 1B position that offers a lot of high-upside sluggers Gonzalez is the opposite of that. As a guy who has hit righties to a +. 300 AVG and +.360 wOBA in most years, he's as consistent as they get. He now finally gets some protection. Gonzalez had to deal with being the only good hitter on his team for a while and now that Corey Seager is there, Gonzo isn't the priority anymore. He will have a couple chances to drive in runs here and I fully expect him to take advantage against Jered Weaver. We will talk about just how putrid he is in a little bit. For now, just know he's atrocious. You ever watch Jeremy Lin play "defense"? There you go.

Eric Thames FD 2300 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.41 DK - 8.67

Eric Thames is a sensation in Korea. He has been the biggest power bat there for a couple years and the brewers are hoping he's able to translate to the majors. He hit his first homer of the year last night and has definitely looked good at the plate. This isn't a guy who is going to be dominated by American pitching. He is making strong contact every at-bat and the Brewers obviously trust him, handing him the keys to the 2 spot in the order against righties. Sentazela is a bit of an unknown, but did struggle a little against lefties in the minors. Thames is nowhere near as good of a play on DraftKings as he is on FanDuel, sitting at just $2.3k. Miller Park is a power-friendly park and Thames has too much power for his price. I will have a tough time deciding between Thames and A-Gon in cash on FD. I will likely go 50/50.

Main

Brandon Belt FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.6 DK - 7.76

For a position that usually gives you a headache for all the right reasons, is going to give you a headache for the opposite reason on this slate. Sure, you still have some very talented hitters to choose from. Still, they aren't in great match-ups and don't offer a ton of safety at a position that usually does Brandon Belt is our favorite of the bunch, facing off with the weak lefty in Robbie Ray. Belt is average against lefties and so is Ray. The reason I'm looking at Belt is I think Ray is out in 4 or 5 innings. That give shim 2 at-bats against an average lefty with guys likely on-base and then 2 at-bats against a bad bullpen that has only 1 lefty. You can't really get to Belt with a lefty out of the bullpen either, as he's surrounded by 2 lefty killers in Buster Posey and Hunter Pence. Belt is a better hitter than he's priced for an I'll continue to targeting these Giants bats until they gain some traction in pricing on FanDuel.

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4400 DK 5200
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.53 DK - 8.89

Paul Goldschmidt isn't in a good match-up here. I would still rather have Goldy in a bad match-up than any of these other options. Goldy can hit the ball off of any pitcher in the league and Samardzija isn't elite. He is good against righties and I wouldn't be targeting him in any typical situation. With that being said, Chase Field is very hitter-friendly and Samardzija did struggle there last season. In cash games, I will be sticking with Brandon Belt. I love the situation he's n with the Giants and should be in a great spot in the order. In tournaments, I'll mak sure to get some Goldschmidt exposure. he should go low-owned due to his price and has more upside than any hitter on the slate.

Second Base

Early

Daniel Murphy FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - MIA (Koehler) Park - @WSH
FD - 9.76 DK - 7.44

Daniel Murphy was just as good as Bryce Harper last year. While last year may have been the last one that stands for, Murphy is a phenomenal hitter, especially against righties. In 2016, Murphy managed to sport a .419 wOBA against righties, which was top 3 in the MLB. Tom Koehler is nothing to be afraid of. He has been a below average pitcher for years now and his spring training games showed no hope for improvement. Koehler allowed a .332 wOBA to lefties in 2016 and backed it up with some gaudy batted ball rates. Murphy is very expensive but likely worth it. He's a fantastic cash game option and has plenty of upside in tournaments. I don't think he's too highly owned on a slate with some good 2nd base options.

Ian Kinsler FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.58 DK - 7.42

Kinsler is usually a guy we want to target against lefties. He rakes them and has a somewhat elevated price that makes him too expensive for most match-ups.This isn't most match-ups. Shields has been atrocious against righties over the last 2 years, with a combined .384 wOBA. Kinsler on the other hand, hit righties to a .340 wOBA clip in 2016 to back up his 21 homers against them. The Tigers are right up there with the Dodgers as the top offense on this early slate and you better get plenty of exposure. If you're playing the all-day slate, I do like the Tigers a lot as well. Shields will try to start off the season on a good note, against one of the best lineups in baseball. Personally, I don't think it turns out well. Kinsler is smack in the middle of the lineup and will see countless pitches to hit with runners on.

Main

Jose Altuve FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.41 DK - 8.82

This is technically the "main" slate, but definitely the worst of the two. Second base is another spot without a bevy of options. Luckily, Altuve is a pretty sweet option. Against lefties, he is one f the bets hitters in baseball, undoubtedly. In 2016, Altuve sported a .378 wOBA against lefties. He backed that up with a .885 OPS and a 39% hard contact rate. While the power numbers may not carry into this season, he will continue making solid contact and driving the ball. His price is pretty fair as well, as we saw Active over $5k a few times on FanDuel last season. He is at home, which gives him a little more HR upside as the Crawford boxes in left field ar only 330 feet out. Altuve is the only guy I will have exposure to at 2B on this late slate. Robinson Cano has upside against Musgrove but I'll stick with Altuve.

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Shortstop

Early

Corey Seager FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.3 DK - 7.68

If I could only play 1 guy in 100% of my lineups today, it's Corey Seager. Pretty easily too. On a day that I don't love too many offenses, the Dodgers are one I will be attacking a ton. Jered Weaver is simply HORRIBLE. His fastball is now at 82 MPH and what used to be his relied upon pitch, is now one he only throws about 40% of the time. Weaver relies on his changeup and cutter now, as they at least don't look like there coming out of a broken pitching machine, like his fastball and curve does. I'm not saying you can't be good with an 82 MPH fastball. Jered Weaver just can't be good with an 82 MPH fastball. In 2016, Weaver gave up a .365 wOBA to both righties and lefties, along with a ridiculous 39.7% hard contact rate. Seager is legitimately one of the better all-around hitters in the league and should approach a .400 wOBA aginst righties this season. Seager is a guy I will target almost every game against righties and this match-up with Jered Weaver could be the best possible match-up in the league. Good luck to Jered Weaver.

 

Main

Troy Tulowitzki FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 8.85 DK - 6.5

Tulowitzki, like a lot of guys, is way too cheap on FanDuel. In cash games, you can go ahead and lock him in. The Blue Jays face off with Blake Snell, who is a promising young lefty that struggles against right-handers. While he will continually get better, he isn't very good just yet. Over 70 innings in 2016, Snell gave up a .330 wOBA to righties. The Blue Jays are one of the most dangerous teams in the league against lefties and Snell will probably have some real trouble in this one. Tulowitzki sported a .330 wOBA against lefties in 2016 as well, which was a huge step down from his .392 a year before that. I expect Tulo to straighten himself out and end up in the middle between the two. As for tonight, he's a solid option across the board.

Carlos Correa FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.98 DK - 7.71

The Astros are likely the top offense on this main slate, right up there with the Giants. The problem with this match-up is Ariel Miranda. Miranda is no classic lefty. He is actually better against righties, which you almost never see out of a southpaw. That's not to say he's good against righties, because he's not. With a .297 wOBA, some may think he's good against righties. Looking at just the .183 BABIP should give you a pretty clear picture of what's going on here. You can expect some major regression by righties and the Astros will ave no problem doing the honors. Correa is dominant against lefties with a .352+ wOBA in each of his first years. Correa is a great cash and tournament option on this slate, though not a must with Tulo right there.

Third Base

Early

Mike Moustakas FD 2700 DK 3200
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.23 DK - 6.8

Kyle Gibson used to be one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He has since fixed a few problems against righties and managed to contain them in 2016. Lefties were a whole other story. In 2016, Kyle Gibson gave up a .380 wOBA to left-handers. He gave up 9 homers in just 61 innings with a 4.69 xFIP. Moustakas has always been a very consistent hitter for the Royals, spring a .300 average during the world series runs. Against righties in 2015, his last full season, Moustakas held a .353 wOBA against righties. The Royals are a persistent bunch and I expect Kyle Gibson to have a lot of trouble. Moustakas should be in the top of the order and is way too cheap on both sites. I will have exposure in both cash games and tournaments.

David Freese FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BOS
FD - 8.19 DK - 6.02

It feels like a throwback writing about David Freese. He's still really good against lefties and has the pop to take them yard. Eduardo Rodriguez is a good up and coming pitcher, but does struggle with the longball. In Fenway Park, that's trouble. Freese is under-price don both FD and DK and is a great tournament option. I expect the Pirates to hit Freese in the middle of the order and you Rodriguez will feed him pitches to hit with Marte and McCutchen looming. Freese has sported a ridiculous .380+ wOBA against lefties for a while now and I don't see a reason to think this is the year he suddenly can't see left-handed pitching. Freese is definitely too risky for cash games but makes a fantastic tournament option at third.

Main

Josh Donaldson FD 3900 DK 4600
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TB
FD - 11.17 DK - 8.15

Josh Donaldson was at $5k on FanDuel for a lot of last seson. Sitting at $3.9k, take adavtage. Donaldson is the only guy in the league I would consider just as good as Giancarlo Stanton against lefties. He might be better. He's deifnitely better in terms of getting on-base and batting average. He has the power as well, as he's shown in 3 straight season. In 2016, Donaldson hit lefties to the tune of a .396 wOBA. We Talked about Snell, who is a youngster with plenty to prove. He has struggled against righties and will likely continue to do so as he gets a grip with this pitches and command. Donaldson is far and away the best option at 3B on a slate that doesn't offer much.

Outfield

Early

Giancarlo Stanton FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - WSH (Gonzalez) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.35

Gio Gonzalez is the most talented pitcher on this early slate, so it doesn't make much sense to target him on the surface. When you dig deeper, it makes a whole lot more sense. Stanton is the best power bat in the league against lefties and he has the advantage against every single left-hander in baseball. Stanton didn't see anywhere near a full season in 2016, but still bashed lefties with a .391 wOBA. Over the last 5 years, Stanton has managed to hold a 51% hard contact rate. If you don't know that means, he hits the ball extremely hard over half of the time. That is insane. An average hard contact rate is around 25%, with most elite hitters around 35-40%. 50%+ is just absolutely unheard of and speaks to the level of power Stanton has. Stanton can hit 2 homers in any game and should get at least close to 1 against Gonzalez.

Odubel Herrera FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - CIN (Davis) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.11 DK - 6.74

Rookie Davis is a decent prospect for the Reds who profiles as an eventual 3 or 4 starter. In the minors in 201, he only struck out 80 batters in 131 innings. He will have no success in the majors if he doesn;t get that up to at least 0.8 K per inning. The Phillies may not be a great offense but have the weapons to put together a strong performance. Odubel Herrera is the best bat in the order and has a ton to offer against right-handers. In 2016, Herrera hit righties for a .359 wOBA to go along with some fantastic batted ball rates. Aside from hitting, he can steal bags with ease. Davis will likely have some jitters and I could see Herrera swiping 2nd and 3rd, especially if Devin Mesoraco is catching.

Main

Hunter Pence FD 2600 DK 4300
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.05
Gorkys Hernandez FD 2200 DK 2900
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.31 DK - 6.84

FanDuel heard a lot of complaints about Hunter Pence being priced down at $2500. Fortunately for us, they went ahead and fixed that with a crazy $2600 tag on Pence now. I know, the price might be a little too high now to consider. I don't really know what FanDuel is thinking, as it's quite obvious a guy in criminally underpriced when he's seeing 70% ownership in baseball. Either way, Pence has to continue being on your radar. He faces off with the worst lefty yet in Robbie Ray, who has struggled against right-handers all career long. Pence smashes lefties with a +.360 wOBA and has the power + speed combo that few posses. Gorkys Hernandez hit leadoff against Patrick Corbin and makes for a fantastic cash game play if he's there against. The Giants offense is one of the top spots to look on the main slate, especially in the outfield.

You can contact me on twitter @VarneyDFS, thanks for the read!

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