Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler (21) waits for a play to develop as he is guarded by New York Knicks' Arron Afflalo, right, during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015, in New York. New York defeated Chicago 107-91. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
Welp, the NBA is completely insane right now, but tonight actually doesn't look too off the wall tonight thanks to some of the crazier teams taking a night off. Still, some positions look a little dicey and some situations remain unknown as of this writing, so be sure to stay tuned as it gets closer to lineup lock tonight.
Or maybe my brain is just fried because I'm trying to juggle baseball and basketball at the same time. Either way, let's get to the picks!
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Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 35.68 DK - 38.64
Real talk - point guard is pretty rough tonight. You have some overpriced guys (like Wall), others with less than attractive match-ups (like Lillard), and then a host of unknown situations. The diamond in the rough for me? Dennis Schroder. Schroder has been a relative constant in a see of uncertainty in Atlanta recently, posting 5x points per dollar on these FanDuel prices in 5 of his last 6 games, and flexing considerable upside above that as well. The Celtics haven't been a conventionally great match-up for opposing point guards this season, but any potential opportunity to square of with Isaiah Thomas has to be considered a plus. There's a decent chance he'll draw some of the other tough wing defenders (like Bradley and Smart) at some point, but even in a league average match-up Schroder has to be considered the best mid-high tier option tonight from where I'm sitting.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 42.51 DK - 45.05
You're not getting a discount on Thomas at these prices, but you get a level of security here that you don't get from a lot of the other options. Thomas has been locked into 19-21 shots recently, and with Boston clawing for the top seed, you can bet he'll see his maximum run in this game. Atlanta has become a sneaky good match-up for opposing point guards with Dennis Schroder seldom up to the task of shutting them down. With most teams playing for little to nothing, I'm happy to take a ball handler who is shouldering a heavy burden here.
Also considered: Matthew Dellavedova and Jeremy Lin. I still trust the minutes for both even though both got blown out in their last contests. Dellavedova is still just so cheap that it's tough to ignore, and Lin has significant upside here.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 49.81 DK - 52.21
I was all about Mr. Antetokounmpo after he averaged 65 fantasy points across two starts, and was naturally more than a little bummed when he disappeared off the face off the Earth against OKC. Still, it's tough to blame Milwaukee's woes on Giannis' play, considering he racked up 31 fantasy points in the 24 minutes he was on the floor. I mentioned this on Tuesday's podcast, but I'm very encouraged by the energy Giannis is bringing to the game right now. With Brogdon out of the picture he's been piling up assists, and 3 straight games with double digit rebounds has me thinking he's very actively engaged. It's relatively tough to spend up profitably tonight, and Giannis is one of the first places I'll look.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.07 DK - 27.35
I don't want to damn Timothe with faint praise here, but he's gone from being someone whom I literally had never heard of to being a DFS value staple. So, good job by him and the Sixers, I guess. He's starting to get a little expensive on DraftKings, but he's still very affordable on FanDuel, particularly against Chicago's back-up shooting guard crew. Luwawu was a tremendous value against the Nets, and while that was a great match-up, he was more than solid in much tougher spots against the Raptors and Cavs. I figure he'll split the difference here, playing mid-30s minutes and returning 5x points per dollar.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.86 DK - 33.25
It makes me sort of sick recommending a guy who's managed just 2 rebounds and 1 assist over his last 56 minutes on a basketball court, but here we are. Maybe I just hate him because that happens to be my pick up game as well. Don't leave me open in the corner, though. Fournier is a pretty boring recommendation primarily because he's priced pretty much fairly. He's been scoring something like 4.5-5.5 points per dollar on these prices and this opportunity for a while, but we're getting him here in the single best possible match-up for an opposing shooting guard. I wouldn't mind locking Giannis and Luwawu into my shooting guard slots tonight, but if something changes with either Fournier isn't a bad consolation prize.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.24 DK - 49.32
You may not have noticed the Bulls fighting for their playoff lives, but they certainly have. Jimmy Butler has been playing nearly 40 minutes a night recently, and he's been up around 20 shots a game consistently - up from his season average of 16.5. The absence of Dwyane Wade and the Bulls' inability to trust anyone at any other position has the heavy burden of carrying this mess of a team resting squarely on Butler's shoulders, and it appears as though he's up to the task. Butler is going to be a strong consideration in even league average match-ups, and looks like a phenomenal play against the dilapidated wing situation in Philadelphia right now.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 27.9 DK - 29.95
Not as exciting as the Butler play on a raw points basis obviously, but there's a lot to like here. Ross is locked into a 33+ minute rotation, even in games that get out of hand (as evidenced by the Cleveland game). He's been good for 5x-6x points per dollar on these prices for 2 weeks, and he'll get the best match-up possible against Brooklyn here. I don't want to repeat myself for one guy in every single position, but all the benefits bestowed upon fantasy players when they're up against Brooklyn obviously apply for Ross here as well. They play the league's fastest pace at a bottom 5 defensive efficiency, and there should be more than enough fantasy production to go around here.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 30.82 DK - 33.21
Middleton has been sort of up and down since returning from injury, but a lot of that has had to do with wonky game scripts as much as anything else. He seems to be playing 35+ minutes per game when things stay close. Vegas has this one as a 4 point game, so we should be in good shape there. There are two main drivers behind the Middleton recommendation, though. The first is his current situation. With no ball-first point guard and no Jabari Parker, the Bucks are desperately in need of shot creators. The second driver is the match-up. In spite of a big name in Paul George theoretically locking down the position, the Pacers have actually allowed the league's 6th most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards. I'd be fine with Middleton in all formats tonight.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.11 DK - 32.59
You're #1 chalk option at power forward tonight, and I'm not even sure it's close. He managed to play fairly healthy minutes in a huge blowout in Cleveland, and he should have no such worries against the Nets here. I'm not going to go off on any more Brooklyn stats, but you can believe you're going to see a ton of Gordon across the industry tonight.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 29.76 DK - 30.92
You won't see as much Gorgui Dieng as you will Aaron Gordon, but there's some chance you should. Dieng is a hair cheaper, and he's been steadily paying 5x-6x+ points per dollar on these prices since the Lakers' game on March 24th. He's been topping 40 minutes on occasion thanks to the Wolves' lack of front court depth, and flirting with double-doubles on a nightly basis. Tonight he'll go up against the depleted Portland bigs, who are looking a lot sorrier now that Jusuf Nurkic is out of the picture. I love Dieng in any format, and particularly as a less chalky option than Gordon for big tournaments.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.39 DK - 25.48
Realizing now that I'm recommending all guys in the 5k-6k range here, but if that's where the value is, who am I to disagree? Thad's price doesn't reflect his recent upward drift in minutes, and while Milwaukee hasn't been a great match-up for opposing power forwards this season, they've lost a lot of depth there. Really, though, this is just a price and opportunity mismatch, making Thad a solid option if you need a power forward in his price range.
A solid upside play: Nikola Mirotic. The Bulls are pretty damned annoying when it comes to deploying power forward minutes, but you're getting a significant discount on his upside here.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 34.85 DK - 36.09
Center is one of the trickier positions tonight, and many of you won't be reassured to see Turner's name on this list. I can't really explain Turner's ineffectiveness in big minutes recently, but we're going to be put to the task of figuring out whether we want to trust a 2 game sample or a season's worth of performance. I get that it won't feel great to push this button for cash game purposes, but on DraftKings in particular it will be tough for me to get away from.
A paragraph on the state of center tonight elsewhere.
There are a handful of other guys people will consider, so let's give you a line on each of them.
Karl-Anthony Towns. A lot of people are going to want to go here tonight, and for pretty good reason. As noted, the Portland big man situation is less than optimal right now, and they truly have no one that can compete with Towns. I very much suspect that he'll be the highest owned center tonight.
Nikola Vucevic. My pick for the highest upside center play of the night, but man, the price is really getting up there. Still, a lot of extra possessions vs. Brooklyn and their generally bad defense is worth quite a bit, and I could see this being an excellent play.
Dwight Howard. Probably a more palatable option than Turner for those wanting to stay in the mid-tier price ranges, but I'm a little concerned about where his post touches go if Millsap is going to be playing more minutes. I don't think I'm in for this one.
Robin Lopez. True separation territory, but the minutes have stayed relatively constant even as some of the other bigs have come and gone. He's not really a part of the offensive scheme right now, but he's cheap enough that he could pay his price on rebounds, blocks, and put backs. Not for the faint of heart though, obviously.
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View Comments
I'm just going to load up on Minny and Orlando. Thibs keeps running his guys out there and so does Orlando.
I'm thinking the same thing Vince, Minny and Orlando with some Luwawu sprinkled in!