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The Nats could be showing up in this space pretty often this season, because unless you subscribe to the dubious notion(s) that Bryce Harper forgot how to hit, Trea Turner was a one-year wonder, and Daniel Murphy is doomed to regress to his pre-second half of 2015 norms, there's an awful lot to like in the top of half of this lineup. More specific to tonight's game, there's an awful lot to like about most lineups facing Dan Straily. The 28-year-old righty had a solid season last year based on the surface numbers. He went 14-8 with a 3.76 ERA, and the 1.42 HRs/9 can be excused to some degree by the fact that he had the misfortune of throwing his home games in the Great American Smallpark. That said, we're not really buying it. His career FIP and xFIP are dangerously close to the 5.00 mark, due to an average K rate, below average control, and extreme fly-ball tendencies that portend homers in just about any venue. Vegas is expecting the Nats to take advantage tonight, tagging Washington with one of the highest run totals on the board, and we tend to agree. The lefties (Adam Eaton, Harper and Murphy) are clear targets, but don't shy away from Turner or Anthony Rendon either, assuming the the latter makes it into the lineup after missing Opening Day.
If you're a frequent reader here, you know we haven't been shy about picking on Wily Peralta over the last couple of seasons, as his homers allowed have climbed and his xFIP has hovered just shy of 5.00. He's not the league's worst gopher baller or anything, but combined with his average command and inability to make guys miss, it's just hard to resist stacking bats against him when he's in a hitter-friendly spot like Miller Park. Outside of Coors Field, you won't find many better places to hit when it comes to home run and basic park factors. Speaking of Coors Field, its regular inhabitants aren't always a shoo-in when they leave home, but we like them here. Sure some of their firepower is boosted by the stats they accrue in Coors, but there's enough true-talent thump in the Rockies lineup to make them appealing against a soft target like Peralta. All the usual suspects in the top half of the order are in play here, highlighted by Nolan Arenado, who we've got as one of the top plays of the day at 3B.
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We've already seen two afternoon games postponed due to ugly weather in the midwest, and the Reds/Phils looks like it's in danger as well. But if clouds dissipate, don't be surprised if they're replaced with deep fly balls in the Cincinnati skies. Weather, including an inbound breeze, (and, well, a mediocre Phillies offense) is just about all that's working in Brandon Finnegan's favor in this one. The 23-year-old lefty has some decent stuff to work with, but through 227 big-league innings he hasn't yet made us believe he knows how to put them to use. Last year's 3.98 ERA looks semi-respectable on the surface, but there's little in the peripheral stats to suggest he's ready to repeat, much less improve on, 2016's results. He walked 4.4 per 9 last season while giving up 1.52 HRs per 9. Sure homers were up across the league and we don't know if that was a one-year outlier or what, but a 38 percent ground ball rate tells us Finnegan is vulnerable, especially in the Great American Ballpark, one of the best home run venues in baseball. As alluded to, the Phillies aren't exactly an imposing lineup, but they've got pop at nice prices (ahem, Tommy Joseph), and could be a nice combo stack with more expensive bats and a decent arm.
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