Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - The Masters

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE. If you are looking for some help with either sheet please go check out my YouTube video going over this week's sheet for the Masters.

 

The Masters

One of the most prestigious events in all of sports is finally here as the golf world travels to Augusta, Georgia for the 2017 Masters. It kicks off the Major Championship season in a big way and is the only Major of the four hosted at the same venue annually. It starts with the iconic drive down Magnolia Lane that opens up to the clubhouse and beautiful Masters logo that is cut into the flower bed on the hill out front.

The tournament started back in 1934 with Horton Smith winning the inaugural event. It wasn't until 1949, however, when the tradition of the Green Jacket began with Sam Snead claiming the first of his three career Masters wins. Jack Nicklaus holds the record for most Masters wins with six while Tiger Woods and the late Arnold Palmer are tied for second with four Masters wins.

The course was originally designed by Bobby Jones with help from Alistar Mackenzie and over the years has seen a ton of changes from many other architects. I found a terrific visual courtesy of Golf Digest of these changes through the years if you are interested in the history of the course.

If you are really only interested in winning a MILLION dollars this week, you came to the right place. That's right. DraftKings is giving away a cool Million bucks to the winner of their $33 Milli Maker contest this weekend. The pricing is very soft which makes almost any lineup you construct look terrific pre-tournament so we will need to be very strategic in finding ways to separate us from the field and take home the mother load. Didn't win any tickets or just don't want to risk $33 an entry into a very top heavy payout contest, don't worry as there are a ton of other contests available with much flatter payouts. Both FanDuel and DraftKings also have excellent contests that limit the entries for each participant which really helps level the playing field if you don't have the time or patience to build 100+ lineups.

Before jumping into my key stats and fantasy approach, let's take a peek at the scorecard and course information.

 

The Course

Augusta National Golf Club
Par 72 - 7,435 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass

*Click to enlarge*

The first thing to note is that nine of the 10 Par 4's are 440 yards or greater. These holes will play longer than posted with the combination of the fairways mowed towards the tee box(limits the run out of drivers) and the possible wet conditions with rain in the forecast pre-tournament. How hard do they play? Looking at the hole by hole stats for the last three years, only once has a Par 4 played under par(Hole 3 in 2015 was -.05 strokes under par). The same story goes for the Par 3's where only one played under par over the last three years(Hole 16 in 2014 played -.04 strokes under par). This will put a ton of emphasis on Par 5 scoring. Over the last three years, right around 50% of the total birdies in the tournament were scored on these four holes. This is a great segway into my favorite stats, trends and my overall fantasy approach.

 

The Stats, Trends & Fantasy Approach

My Top 5 Key Stats:

• Par 5 Birdie or Better %
• Driving Distance
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Bogey Avoidance
• Strokes Gained: Putting

In my main model that you will find on the cheatsheet this week, Par 5 Birdie or Better % will be the highest weighted stat. Eagles can be made here as we have seen 20 or more each of the last three years with 2015 seeing a whopping 47. Seven of the 11 players who finished Top 10 had at least one Eagle and four players had multiple. As I mentioned, the course will play long so I will always look at bombers over the shorter hitters. When you do target a shorter hitter just make sure they are above average with their long irons. The rough is not as penal here so for the Strokes Gained Statistics I will lean on Approach and Around the Green. The greens are undulated and while they are large, they will have tricky and tough pin placements and missing your spots on the approach could cost you a three-putt. Around the Green didn't correlate as highly as I thought it would but I still feel it will be extremely important. With the runoffs and super fast greens, a mistake around the green could lead to a bogey or worse real fast. Bogey Avoidance just fits right in there with Around the Green. Finally, the players who can hit on the first four areas should give themselves a great shot at being in contention on Sunday and those who putt better than others will show up on the leaderboard.

 

Trends

So I decided to dig into a few trends for this tournament and found some that I will share and could definitely help make some very important lineup decisions. I looked back over the last five years only. One, because of time restraints and two, because I don't totally feel confident in trends from when 3/4 of the field was not playing. Here they are.

• Each of the last five winners have gone into the Masters inside the Top 20 in the Official World Golf Rankings(Willett-#12, Spieth-#4, Bubba-#12, Scott-#7, Bubba-#18)
• Each of them came into the Masters with at least two Top 10 finishes earlier that season on the PGA Tour.
  • Willet - Two Top 10's
  • Spieth - Two wins and six Top 10's
  • Bubba - One win and four Top 10's
  • Scott - Two Top 10's
  • Bubba - Three Top 10's
• Only once in the last five years has more than two players outside the Top 50 in the OWGR finished inside the Top 10. I made a separate tab on the cheatsheet for this information.

So, what do we take from this information? The best of the best will be at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday. From a fantasy perspective, for the most part, I will be targeting Top 50 players in the world that are coming in with some form and hit on all or most of my key stats.

With the extremely soft salaries, it gives us a tremendous value from top to bottom. Concentrating on the top, there are only four players with a salary that is above their season average(DraftKings). Also of note is that no player is above $11,500 on DraftKings and this gives us a huge opportunity to build lineups with two elite players. I found no reason to fade any of the top three players(Spieth, DJ, McIlroy) and will be constructing 100% of my lineups with at least one of them. I will also have a lot of lineups stacking two of the three together. Let's jump into the picks.

 

 

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanSharSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". They have also added Salary Differential, Subject Tags and Projections. All the tools you need to help you become a better daily fantasy golf player.

 

 

High End Targets ($9,000+)

Rory McIlroy
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
Draftkings ($10,600)
FanDuel ($10,400)

While I will be playing all three top options fairly equally, I lean McIlroy if I had to choose just one to play this week. He is $700 less than DJ and $900 less than Spieth. The extra money can help you make a more balanced lineup as $700 can go a long way to getting to a much safer option. The narrative for Rory will remain until he completes the career Grand Slam. He has won the Open, US Open, and PGA Championship with just the Masters left on the checklist to join Woods, Player, Nicklaus, Sarazen, and Hogan as the only players in history to do so. He has finished Top 10 here in each of the last three years and looking at the trends he comes in with three prior Top 10 finishes this season. Rory for the win.

 

 

Rickie Fowler
World Golf Ranking (#8)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FanDuel ($9,200)

Whether you are fading the top three players or looking to pair one of them with a high-end value, Rickie Fowler makes perfect sense. He is in the low $9K range on both sites and compared to his Vegas odds is a +3 value this week. Before missing the cut here last year, Fowler had made five straight in his career including a T12 in 2015 and T5 in 2014. Statistically, he is #3 on my model with a ranking of 4th in SG: Approach, 15th in SG: Around the Green, 16th in Driving Distance, 11thin Par 5 BoB% and 4th in Bogey Avoidance. He also ranks inside the Top 10 in SG: Putting this season and if he can avoid the double bogey's that cost him the win last week, he has a great shot at winning a Green Jacket.

 

 

Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (#4)
Vegas Odds (20/1)
Draftkings ($9,900)
FanDuel ($9,700)

If you are looking to go ultra-contrarian in the top tier this week just roster Jason Day. He should be extremely low owned but comes with a lot of risk as we just don't know where his head is at. I think you can also grab some separation in tournaments with much less risk by rostering Hideki this week. Outside of Day, no one is getting tagged less on FanShareSports in the upper tier. He is seemingly flying under the radar and that is great news for us DFSers as he fits the model outside of his most recent form where he made an early exit at the Match Play and T45 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Since the end of last season, he has won five OWGR tournaments and comes back to Augusta with back to back Top 10's. Statistically, he only trails Dustin Johnson in my model as he is ranked 1st in Par 5 BoB%, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 13th in Driving Distance, and 9th in SG: Around the Green. As it always is, putting will be key for Hideki this week and the fact he is 63rd in the field in SG: Putting on my sheet, I will be using him in GPP only.

 

 

Also Consider: Justin Rose

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Paul Casey
World Golf Ranking (#16)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($7,800)
FanDuel ($8,300)

All things considered, Paul Casey is probably going to be my highest owned golfer this week. He is one of just six golfers in the entire field that rank Top 20 in my stats model, five-year course history ranks and current form ranks. After missing the cut at the Masters in 2010 and then again in 2012, Casey didn't play the following two years. He returned in a big way the past two years with finishes of T6 and T4 and is poised for another strong finish this year. He has the Top 10 trend qualification, even if just barely as it was back in October at the Safeway Open. He has also made nine of 10 cuts this season and also finished T9 at the Match Play two weeks ago. He falls outside the Top 40 in Par 5 BoB% but ranks 11th in Bogey Avoidance, 14th in SG: Approach and 5th in SG: Around the Green. I don't think he will win but I can definitely see a third straight Top 10 finish which would be more than enough to make value.

 

 

 

Bill Haas
World Golf Ranking (#39)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($7,200)
FanDuel ($7,100)

Haas, like Casey, is also one of the six players that ranks Top 20 in stats, history, and form. To be honest, if I blacked out their names on my sheet I would almost not be able to tell the difference between them statistically. Haas also ranks outside the Top 40 in Par 5 BoB% but is elite in Bogey Avoidance(1st), Around the Green(4th),  and Approach(16th). He checks out with course history as well, with four straight Top 25 finishes which is more than enough for a low $7K price tag. Safe in all formats.

 

 

Also Consider: Charley Hoffman

 

Low End Targets (Min Price - $6,900)

Kevin Kisner
World Golf Ranking (#37)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
FanDuel ($6,800)

When it comes to the sub $7K golfers this week, I am not really interested in taking too many risks with the first timers. Kisner broke his Masters cherry last year making the cut and finishing T37 which was an accomplishment for a first timer. He is poised to best that finish this year, coming in with some nice form with a T2 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T11 at the WGC Mexico. Overall this season, he has three total Top 10's and ranks 24th in my stats model highlighted by a 9th rank in SG: Approach and 19th in SG: Around the Green.

 

 

Sean O'Hair
World Golf Ranking (#85)
Vegas Odds (250/1)
Draftkings ($6,500)
FanDuel ($5,400)

There are three golfers(O'Hair, Tanihara, Kjeldsen) in this range I will be using heavily in my GPP lineups. I mention O'Hair in the article as I feel you get the same upside at much less ownership. He has only been mentioned once on FanShareSports so far and there is, even more, evidence. Tanihara was not well known until his incredible run at the WGC Match Play a few weeks back and Kjeldsen will be popular for his T7 here at the Augusta last year. O'Hair isn't coming in with great form but does check the trend box with two Top 10's this season. He hasn't played here in five years and most people will forget he has made four of six cuts including a Top 10 in 2009.

 

 

 

Also Consider:  Hideto Tanihara

 

 

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

The Masters Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.