Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler (21) waits for a play to develop as he is guarded by New York Knicks' Arron Afflalo, right, during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015, in New York. New York defeated Chicago 107-91. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
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The NBA can be a very stressful DFS sport towards the end. When you combine the late scratches, resting superstars, and inconsistent play, it can certainly be frustrating. However, targeting teams that want to win are important. While not always necessary, I tend to roster players from these teams down the stretch, more and more as we get closer to the last game.
Boston Celtics
Charlotte Hornets
Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis Grizzlies
Milwuakee Bucks
Utah Jazz
Miami Heat
Denver Nuggets
Toronto Raptors
Chicago Bulls
Atlanta Hawks
Indiana Pacers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Washington Wizards
New York Knicks
Los Angeles Lakers
Dallas Mavericks
San Antonio Spurs
Philadelphia 76ers
New Orleans Pelicans
Brooklyn Nets
Golden State Warriors
Houston Rockets
Phoenix Suns
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 41.09 DK - 43.64
With season-end quickly approaching, there are multiple teams with a ton to play for. None more-so than the Hornets, who must win out to stay in playoff contention. Walker single-handedly led his team to victory against the Nuggets with an insane 2nd half scoring spree. The Hornets will rely heavily on Walker for the rest of the year, as the rest of the lineup is either banged up or flat out unable to create a shot. While Walker presumably matches up with Westbrook, I don't think he has to cover him. I expect Batum or MKG to play on Westbrook, as Walker can easily cover Andre Roberson. That should allow Walker to keep his gas tank on F for offense, where he will be able to dice up this defense. Westbrook has ben struggling on defense all year and his interior backup has now started to falter. With Steven Adams struggling of late, guards have been able to attack the rim against the Thunder. If Walker is able to get a groove going, you can expect a huge outing. While Walker generally isn't a guy I touch in cash games, this scenario is different. He is guaranteed to shoot 20-25 times and play close to 40 minutes. In a fast-paced game with a lot on the line, don't expect a disappointment.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.72 DK - 40.78
Schroder has been on fire as of late, topping 40 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5. The Hawks still have a chance of missing the playoffs, sitting just 2 games ahead of the Heat, Bulls, and Pacers, who are all tied for the 8th seed. Schroder has been a necessary offensive weapon with Paul Millsap out, who is often relied on at this point in the season. Schroder has done a good job of scoring in the paint, which has been the problem all season long. This match-up with the Nets can't be better. Both of these teams played yesterday and the Nets have no reason to try. The Hawks should be able to dominate from the gate and Schroder will have his way up top. Jeremy Lin is one of the weaker defenders in the league, let alone on the 2nd half of a back to back just a week after returning from a leg injury. Schroder is being leaned on to score for these Hawks and will have no problem doing so against the Nets. While the blowout is a tad bit worrisome, the Hawks have done a good job of letting bad teams linger around. Schroder is a guy I will have exposure to in both cash games and tournaments, If you have watched the recent Hawks games, you know why.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 35.57 DK - 38.06
Rondo played 36 minutes against the Hawks just yesterday, handing in a dominant performance and nearly 50 fantasy points. Typically, I 100% fade Rondo tonight. He;s an older player and will rarely see huge minutes on both legs of a B2B. Luckily, this isn't a typical situation. The Bulls are one of the 3 teams with identical records, with only 2 spots up for grabs. The Bulls starters will once again be forced into huge minutes, as losing is simply not an option. They control their own destiny and a loss to a subpar Pelicans team would be devastating. Rondo is obviously one of the main weapons they have and Fred Hoiberg has made it clear who he wants to have the ball. Rondo and Butler will continue to run this offense and hopefully make a playoff push. As for tonight, you can safely lock in 32 minutes for the Bulls, with the upside for 40 minutes and 55 fantasy points. Tim Frazier s way too small and you can expect Rondo to bully him until they put Jrue holiday on him.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 38.56 DK - 40.69
The Heat are one of those other teams vying for the 8 seed, currently tied with 2 others. The Heat have played Dragic bg minute sin each of the last 4 and you can expect that trend to continue. The Heat are in control of their destiny and should be able to beat a Nuggets team with no incentive. The Nuggets are atrocious against point guards, allowing nearly 52 FP per game. Jameer Nelson(if he plays) and Jamal Murray are both horrid defenders. Dragic will be able to use his speed and savviness to get around the slower guards and score. The Nuggets don't have any interior presence and Dragic should have the rim at will. While he may not be a guy you look to score 50 or 60 fantasy points, you can rely on Dragic to have the ball in his hands for 34-36 minutes in a fast-paced, must win game. You can lock in 35 fantasy points with the upside for 50. He is an extraordinary cash game play and I don't hate it in tournaments if you go risk/reward elsewhere.
Yes, Russell Westbrook is a mad-man and can put up 100 fantasy points in any match-up. His price is extremely high and we don't think he makes sense for cash games. For $19,000 at PG, you can either have Westbrook + McConnell or Wall + IT2. In tournaments, give me the two guys with 65 fantasy points upside. In other PG news, Jameer Nelson is questionable. If he misses, Jamal Murray will see big minutes at an exceptional price.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 22.7 DK - 24.95
Timothe "TLC" Luwawu-Cabarrot has been thrown into the fire that is the Philadelphia 76ers rotation. He has seen over 30 minutes in 3 straight and Brett Brown has shown plenty of confidence. While the Raptors aren't the greatest match-up for SG's, they aren't the worst either. DeMar DeRozan will be using most of his energy on offense and I doubt he will focus too hard on stopping TLC. Luwawu is a better play on FD, where he is only $3900. He is a near-lock for cash game value over there and makes sense in tournaments as well. With 30 minutes locked in, this fast-paced match-up should present plenty of fantasy points. Luwawu has shot well and been pretty successful in transition, where the Raptors love to be. Robert Covington has been ruled out for the rest of the season and the locked in minutes will be full of as many shots as he wants. He has been given the green light to fire and while he may not be the most efficient shooter, we don't care how many he misses.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 29.76 DK - 32.53
Eric Gordon and Lou Williams have been pretty popular targets over the last two games, as there seems to be appeal in this fast-paced offense. With James Harden being the only big performer on the Rockets, we have been trying to find out who will be the guy who steps up as number 2. Gordon has a great chance to do so against the Suns, who may actually play faster than the Houston Rockets. With James Harden at the 3 and Gordon at the 2, Devin Booker will cover Gordon. Booker is a fine defender, but doesn't have much to play for and is on the 2nd leg of a strenuous B2B. Gordon will once again see 30 minutes and shoot 10-15 times. He will soon obliterate value at this price and likely hit it until then. With Harden saying his hand is bothering him, I don't see him playing huge minutes in what figures to be a blowout. Gordon has no problem shooting a ton and playing big minutes, which he has done in blowouts for the Rockets. Gordon is simply way too cheap and I don't see too many paths to failure for Gordon on this slate.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 45.75 DK - 48.08
DeRozan has dominated every team he has faced in the last two weeks or so, with 40+ fantasy points in 5 of his last 6. He has also flashed 55 and 65 in there, so you can be sure the upside is there. The 76ers are at a point where they are just waiting for the season to end, and with Robert Covington out, I have no idea who will cover DeRozan. I guess TLC will do his best to cover DeRozan, but he is far too inexperienced and slow to stay with DD. While the price has definitely risen across the industry, I see his ownership going down because of it. There are a lot of ways to spend money on this slate and DeRozan is one of my favorites. The Raptors are locked into the playoffs, but are playing for seeding and homecourt advantage. You can expect DeRozan to play close to 40 minutes and shoot almost 30 times. DeRozan is a safe cash game play and has as much upside as anyone not named Russell Westbrook or James Harden on this slate.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 46.91 DK - 48.91
I have played Butler in every game since the 21st, with it paying off every single time. With the Bulls in such a must-win spot, you can guarantee Butler will see close to 40 minutes and 25 shots. The Pelicans don't have anyone that can cover Butler, either. Solomon Hill will likely draw the job and do his best. He will not have much success and I expect Butler to go for the Pelicans throat from the beginning. I don't think the Bulls will be able to pull away and blow the Pelicans here, even though they are the far weaker team. Boogie and AD will give the Bulls a lot of problems and I think it stays close for that reason. Butler has shown the type of floor and upside he possesses, ranging from 45-65 on multiple occasions in the past week. I would look towards the higher end in this game against the Pelicans, who can't guard the perimeter. Butler will be one of the more popular plays on the board and rightfully so. Don't get too cute with this one.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 20.66 DK - 22.59
The Grizzlies realized that Vince Carter is 94 years old and they have finally decided that he may need a game off. With Marc Gasol and JaMychal Green also ruled out, this team is very short-handed. James Ennis is now the only active SF on the Grizz and will also see some backup minutes at the 4. This isn't even a guy we are hoping to get minutes. He has seen 30 minutes in recent games with Carter playing, so he could legitimately be forced into 40 tonight. He fits in well against the Lakers, who love to run and shoot a lot. The Peripherals are what Ennis derives his upside from, as a guy who seems to be involved at all times when on the court. Ennis is one of my favorite options on the board tonight and I don't see him not paying off. The Lakers are an ideal match-up and Ennis should be over 25 fantasy points with ease at minimum price.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 32.03 DK - 33.47
With Ryan Anderson out for a couple weeks, Eric Gordon has slid into the Rockets starting lineup. Why does this matter for Warren? Well, this has caused James Harden to cover the 3. T.J. Warren will absolutely destroy Harden on offense, as he is way stronger and Harden will have no interest in playing lockdown defense against the Phoenix Suns. While the B2B is slightly worrisome, The Suns have been playing Warren a ton in every game. I think he will see big minutes once again as the Suns can wait 5 or 6 games to rest Warren for a few months. The Rockets are one of the few teams to match paces with the Suns, who love to run. Warren has been playing great lately and his price is very fair on both sites. I like him more on FanDuel, where he's a bit cheaper and gives you a higher ceiling. While Carter and Butler are both preferred for their respective prices, I will certainly have Warren exposure in both cash and GPP's.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 38.1 DK - 39.44
Marc Gasol and JaMyChal Green have already been ruled out, along with Vince Carter. This will force Zach Randolph into another 32-minute game. Randolph could be the only big man left and the Grizz will find a way to keep him at 32 minutes. With that being said, I don't think it will matter tonight. If Randolph sees 32 minutes, that means the Lakers kept it close and Z-BO likely has 40. In a worst-case scenario, Randolph sees 26 minutes and puts up 30 fantasy points. He will be able to dominate when in the game and I see no way Randolph avoids a double-double. Conley has done a great job getting him involved off the bench and he gets the opportunity to face off with some of the worst interior defenders in the league. As an extremely savvy veteran, Randolph should have some fun here. He is a top option in cash games and has plenty of merit in tournaments.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.46 DK - 33.17
Nikola Mirotic has replaced Dwyane Wade as part of the big 3 down the stretch, flowing with Rondo and Butler quite well as of late. Mirotic is usually a guy we only want to play in tournaments, as he will often play an invisible 25 minutes. That's simply not the case right now. He is a huge part of this offense and has no choice but to get involved. The Bulls have relied on him as an outside threat and also as a rebounder which has given his fantasy game some diversity, which heightens his floor and ceiling. The match-up with Anthony Davis is obviously a scary one, but shouldn't b e according to the numbers. The Pelicans have only been slightly above league average against PF's since the beginning of February. They have also allowed the 8th most 3 pointers to PF's. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have kept Mirotic at a very fair price, needing about 30 to hit value. I would say Mirotic hits that number far more often than not in this must-win game where he will see upwards of 36 minutes and 15 shots.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.35 DK - 35.56
On a slate with so many shiny options, you may be compelled off of Ersan Ilyasova. I get it, he's boring and lacks upside. In tournaments, I don't think you need to go here. There are plenty of guys around $5-$6k with 45 fantasy point upside, which Ilyasova simply doesn't have. In cash games however, you won't find many options better than Ersan. The Hawks are in a spot where they need to win and with Paul Millsap out, Ilyasova gives them their best shot at the 4 to win. It's not like these Nets are gonna play any defense, at least they haven't all season long. Power forwards have constantly tormented the Nets, who gave up 50 fantasy points just yesterday to Aaron Gordon. Ilyasova is a safe option for 25 with the upside for 30-32. On a slate with a ton of variance, I don't hate plugging in one of the safer options on the board at one of the weaker positions. You don't need everyone to blow up. You need 2 or 3 guys to exceed value and the rest to hit.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 48.2 DK - 51.06
The vengeful DeMarcus Cousins ended up with 63 against the Kings, which is WAY out of the norm for the best center in basketball. Of course, he only scored slightly more than his season average because he was playing his ex-team. All kidding aside, the Pelicans did feed Cousins the ball and let him go to work against his former team, whom he felt treated him unfairly. With that being said, we shouldn't be surprised by a 63 fantasy point game. This is DeMarcus Cousins and he will do that every night. He sees a fantastic match-up with the Bulls, who will offer an inept Robin Lopez to cover Boogie. Lopez isn't a guy who loves leaving the paint, as his athleticism doesn't allow it. Cousins will surely use his speed and strength against Lopez, who I see getting 2 quick fouls. Felicio is a bit more athletic and will likely see a few more minutes on Cousins. He still won't be able to stop him and Cousins will be on his way to 50-60 points. The Pelicans are basically running a 3 man game with Holiday, Davis, and Cousins. They are all in play here as I expect some determined Pelicans wanting to stump the Bulls.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38.48 DK - 40.7
Since the absence of Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard has stepped up in a big way. Outside of the stat sheet, Howard has given the Hawks a somewhat legitimate low-post game, as well as a serious shot blocking threat. Both have retroactively shown in the stat sheets, where he has been around 35-45 fantasy points. Playing close to 38 minutes on a nightly basis, you can expect Howard to see close to 15 shots in a game that should have a lot more possessions that usual. The Nets play at the 2nd fastest PACE in the NBA, which is a big difference from the Hawks average rate. Brook Lopez is one of the better scoring centers in the league, but doesn't really care about anything else. The Nets rank dead last against centers in terms of both rebounding, shot blocking and scoring, dating back to the start of the year. While Howard has nowhere near the upside of DeMarcus Cousins, he does have a 35 point floor with a 50 point ceiling. The Hawks need to win and Howard will be on the court as much as necessary.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32.82 DK - 34.03
Myles Turner has finally started playing well, which resulted in his price dropping across the industry. While I'm not really sure why, we should take advantage. Turner has been putting up 30 on a nightly basis and the Pacers need to win, so you can bet Turner will be out there. The Cavs may not be the best defense to exploit, but they haven't been perfect. I expect this game to be heavily contested and Turner will play a big role. Thompson does struggle outside of the pain and Turner could have a big game if his shot is falling. He is a bit risky in general and foul trouble is scary against the Cavs. Turner is a guy I will have in tournaments and I can see the merit in cash as well. He is way too cheap and is guaranteed to see 32 minutes in a positive situation.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 36.63 DK - 38.3
If you look at the recent box scores of Hassan Whiteside, you will see exactly why he makes so much sense tonight. There isn't anything in-depth here to look at. The Heat are in must-win mode to make the playoffs, which will result in Hassan Whiteside playing huge minutes. These minutes will come in one of the best possible match-ups, against the Nuggets. The Nuggets have definitely mad some improvements down low on the offensive side, but have still kept their reputation as an atrocious defensive interior. Jokic will get outrebounded by Whiteside and I think he has another 15-15 game, at least. He has been seeing the ball a lot on offense as of late and could see a big scoring game here soon. Whiteside has one of the better floors at center and does have the upside to go for 20/20 with a few peripherals. The Heat starters are a group I love in cash games tonight.
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