Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/1/17

April has arrived, the season is winding down, some teams are playing for playoff positioning, others are playing for ping pong balls. There'll be no foolin' here though. Our system has been on fire as of late and it all starts with the picks that follow below.
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Point Guards

Early

Rajon Rondo FD - $6900 DK - $6900
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 31.28 DK - 33.27
The Bulls currently find themselves on the outside looking in for the last playoff spot with time winding down. Today they host a Hawks team who finally figured out how to win a few games without Paul Millsap. It's kind of been a tale of two seasons for Rajon Rondo. He was completely pulled from the rotation back in January for several games, and then relegated to a minor bench role. Now as we come down the stretch Raj looks to be locked firmly in place as the Bulls starting point guard and saw runs of 34 and 36 in his past two outings. Most recently a big win against the Cavs in which he didn't shoot particularly well(3-13), but made up for it by dishing out 15 assists and snagging nine boards. The early word from Vegas is a 4.5 spread, so look for Rondo to see extended run in this one and even though the price is steadily climbing, he still comes in at a value with a high floor and higher ceiling for all formats.

Late

Damian Lillard FD - $9500 DK - $9700
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 44.99 DK - 48.32
The Blazers host the Suns tonight as they fight to hold on to that final playoff spot in the west. Damian Lillard has been very impressive down the stretch, most recently putting up a stellar performance against the tough defense of Patrick Beverley and the Houston Rockets. In 38 minutes against the Rockets, Lillard double doubled with 31 points and 11 assists, while also picking up 4 boards and 2 swipes. The 31 points makes this Lillards first time in 4 games scoring over 22 points, after a run of three straight games scoring over 30. The price is slowly trending back upward, and on a full slate I might be inclined to look elsewhere, but with tonight's limited options, You have to love what Lillard brings to the table, even in a game with definite blowout potential.

Tyler Ulis FD - $6400 DK - $7100
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.1 DK - 36.94
On the other side of that match up we have Tyler Ulis. Ulis continues to impress since moving in to the Phoenix starting PG role. Thursday night he went up against Chris Paul and the Clippers and in 40 minutes completed a 16 point 13 assist performance with 3 rebounds and a steal. Ulis has paid over 5X in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 40 minutes per game. Even with the blowout risk, Ulis is a plug and play for the price and the opportunity.

Shooting Guards

Early

Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5500 DK - $6100
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.79 DK - 27.66
THJ put up a real dud against the Suns on Tuesday, going just 1-9 from the field and not really doing much else with his 32 minutes. Redemption was not far off though, as the next night against the Sixers he scored 19 points going 50% from the field and 2-6 from beyond. There was speculation with Kent Bazemore returning Wednesday, Hardaway might see his minutes clipped, but he was still on the court for 37. Seeing as how he is averaging 18.2 points per game over his last 5 (2 point Phoenix game included) you have to like the idea of the Hawks sending him out there to pick up the void in scoring left by Paul Millsap's injury. I don't know that there's a ton of upside to Hardaway's game, but SG is so thin on this early slate, particularly on FanDuel where you don't have the luxury of locking Jimmy Buckets in as a SG, you just lock THJ in and move along.

Late

C.J. McCollum FD - $6900 DK - $7600
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 38.03 DK - 40.96
C.J. McCollum has been one extreme to the other in his last 4 outings with FanDuel scores of 40.8, 16.7, 50.5, and 16.7. The most recent 16.7 point game was a tough contest against the Rockets where he just could not shake Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon who were in his face all night. Tonight, Portland hosts the Suns, an average defensive opponent. With word coming last night that Jusuf Nurkic is going to be out for the next two weeks, McCollum and Damian Lillard will have to step things up to maintain the Blazers hold on that 8 spot in the west. Look for C.J. to bounce back nicely tonight.

Evan Fournier FD - $5600 DK - $5600
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 28.36 DK - 30.57
This is a game you're going to want to keep focus on when setting your line ups for the 6PM slate. There are three games in the evening, Sac/Min has a 210 total with an eleven point spread, Por/Pho has a 222 total with a 12 point spread, this game while also having a 222 total only has a 3.5 point spread providing us with a lot of fantasy production and implied safety. Evan Fournier has 3 straight games with 20 or more points scored, and has paid at least 5X value in each. Last night against the Celtics he posted a 20/1/2 line in 35 minutes. The thing with Fournier is if the shot isn't falling he can crush your evening, but the Nets are allowing 8% more scoring than league average to opposing shooting guards, so that shouldn't be an issue tonight. Fournier is a player I will be targeting in both cash and tournament contests.

Small Forwards

Early

Jimmy Butler FD - $9900 DK - $9600
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 48.58 DK - 50.94
We've already established the spot the Bulls are in at this point in the playoff hunt. Every game a this point is a must win, and Jimmy Butler will carry the city of Chicago on his back to try and get them there. Buckets has had to step his game up recently with Dwyane Wade sidelined for the past seven contests, and in that span he's averaging 39 minutes per game. Over the past 5 games Butler has averaged 53.16 FanDuel points per game and is drawing a Hawks team that is just awful at defending the three this season allowing 7% more points and 4% more rebounds and assists to the position. There is a lot of value on this early slate so fitting Butler in should be quite easy and if you like to end the day in the green is highly recommended.

Late

Andrew Wiggins FD - $7300 DK - $7200
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 33.38 DK - 35.24
I'm not a fan of this price point for Andrew Wiggins, once we start to rise above the 7K mark, I have to question if he is really worth playing. Tonight that answer is yes for a few reasons. First being the slate, we only have three games to choose from, and 2 of those games promise to get out of hand, so we can't let the blow out scare us off as easily as we would a normal slate. Then we have the match up. Wiggins has only paid 5X or better at this price twice in his past 5 games and those were both against the Lakers, who defensively rank right down at the bottom of the barrel with the Kings. While neither of these teams have anything to play for, the Kings gave up on their season months ago, while the Wolves, still come out and at least try to win. There's some risk involved with Wiggins, but on a short slate as this, you have to think his ownership will be high enough to alleviate some of that.

Terrence Ross FD - $4400 DK - $5100
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 24.15 DK - 25.9
Terrence Ross came off one of his best games of the season in a tough overtime loss to the Thunder and followed up with anther solid outing against the Celtics last night. In 38 minutes Ross dropped 17 points and 3 rebounds, an assist, a block and 2 steals. The price on Ross is slowly beginning to climb back up after dipping to near minimum less than 2 weeks ago, and yet it's still at a point that his last 6 performances have all exceeded value on. Then of course there is tonight's match up, the Nets. Brooklyn's allowing 10% more scoring, 9% more boards, 4% more assists and 21% more steals than league average to opposing small forwards. Cash or tournament, doesn't matter, Ross is my guy.

Power Forwards

Early

Ersan Ilyasova FD - $5000 DK - $5900
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.52 DK - 32.59
Paul Millsap remains out, and that means once again Ersan Ilyasova becomes a fantastic play. In the 7 games that Milly has been sidelined with a knee injury, Ily has seen a steady increase in minutes, averaging 32.5 over his last four. Despite a slight drop in production against his former Sixers team where Dwight Howard just Dominated around the glass and he only managed 3 rebounds, Ersan has been consistently at or over value in each of those. Chicago's coming in as an average match up defensively at the four, so while there may not be much upside, there's no denying the appeal for Ilyasova for the implied safety he brings at a bargin price.

Nikola Mirotic FD - $5500 DK - $6000
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 27.72 DK - 30.53
I'm not going to lie, I used to dread having to justify Mirotic in this spot when the system would recommend him, but looking over his recent game logs, It's hard to deny him right now. Like Rondo above, he was dropped from coach Holbergs rotation completely and it has really sparked his production to a point we haven't seen from him in the past. Since those three games he was shut out of in early March, Mirotic is averaging 18.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 30.1 minutes per game. The minutes are steadily on the rise as well as he has seen 39,27,35,38 in his last 4 games. While he hasn't been without his regression outings (5 points, 4 rebounds against Utah, 8,2,2 against Toronto) more often than not he has been completely crushing value, paying over 6.9X in 3 of his last 5 games. The salary is slowly climbing, but for what we are seeing from Nikola right now he's still a good $500-$700 underpriced for the production. Get in now while the value is still there.

Late

Aaron Gordon FD - $5400 DK - $5500
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 27.68 DK - 29.07
Aaron Gordon was uncertain coming in to Friday's tilt with Boston, with some discomfort in his shoulder, but he felt good enough to play and play he did. In 36 minutes Gordon dropped 32 points and snagged 16 rebounds, rounding out his night with 1 assist, 2 blocks and a steal. Tonight the Magic travel into Brooklyn in a high scoring game with little in the way of defense. I'll keep an eye on twitter for any news of discomfort, or if he becomes a game time decision on the back to back, but if Gordon is good to play the tail end against the NBA's punching bag, I plan to have a lot of exposure.

Gorgui Dieng FD - $6000 DK - $6200
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 28.46 DK - 29.71
Gorgui Dieng is another of those players that I used to have a hard time justifying what the system saw in him, but now, you can't argue against him. The Wolves have been running him out there for an average of 38.6 minutes in his last 5 games and he has been producing hefty returns for those that have been locking him in on the regular. Thursday against the Lakers he recorded his 13th double double of the season (11/15/6/3 blocks) paying over 8X. Now the one thing to keep in mind here is the price, while he continually hovered around the low to mid 5k range, he has suddenly spiked to a 6K player on both sites, and while I'm willing to roll with him in this spot, if the price continues to climb any higher I may have to hit the brakes. Tonight however against a terrible Kings defense with nothing to fight for, I'll ride with Dieng all the way to the bank.

Centers

Early

Dwight Howard FD - $7600 DK - $8000
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.84 DK - 38.78
The Hawks are trying to hold on to that number 5 seed in the East, and without Paul Millsap, it hasn't been easy. They rode a 5 game skid after PM went down, but recently managed to put together a few nice wins against the likes of the Suns and the Sixers. Dwight Howard massacred Philly almost single handedly finishing Wednesdays contest with 22 points and 20 boards paying over 7X. The price is up, but with Millsap out for at least two more games, the opportunity for Howard to produce remains and he still isn't priced out of consideration. At his current price he has paid value in 4 of his last 5, exceeding it in his past two. The one caveat here is that the Bulls for what it's worth are one of the leagues tougher match ups for opposing fives.

DeAndre Jordan FD - $8200 DK - $7700
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 38.42 DK - 39.79
That brings us to Deandre Jordan. If you don't feel confident in Howard's match up, then you can give some consideration to DJ. If you've been paying attention, you noticed all of our early picks to this point came from the Bulls/Hawks game, that's primarily due to the fact that this game unlike that one, has blowout written all over it. That said, with only 2 games on the early slate we do have to look at the battle of Los Angeles. While the Lakers have essentially been out of playoff contention since Halloween, the Clippers are currently on the fringe determining whether or not they will have home court advantage in the first round. Jordan has been seeing minutes in the upper thirties in 4 of his last 5 games, and has paid at least 4.5X in those same four. Last time out against the Lakers, Jordan double doubled, but the 12/11/1/ with 2 blocks in a mere 23 minutes wasn't quite good enough. The Lakers are terrible at the 5 and if they somehow find a way to keep this one close Jordan could explode, that's a big if, but again, we have to give some love to this game on the early slate, and while I'll stick with Howard for cash games, I'll take a shot on DJ in some large tournaments. Crazier things have happened.

Late

Brook Lopez FD - $7000 DK - $6700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 33.3 DK - 34.82
Brook Lopez has been rather hot and cold recently, but when he's hot he's been the Human Torch. Prior to Thursday's loss to the Pistons, BroLo was averaging 22.7 points over his last ten games. Thursday he only managed 11 points against a stingy Pistons defense, and was just a board shy of a double double. Tonight the Nets host a Magic team that not only are the 9th worst team in the league defending the 5 this season, they're actually allowing 6.4 more fantasy points to the position over their last 5 games. This is one of two games on the main slate with a 222 point total and is the only one with a single digit spread, coming in at only 3.5. I like BroLo in all formats in this spot.

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