Wow. Baseball is back. I can't believe it either. And we enter a spring where hope springs eternal and DFS MLB is back in our lives. It's a great time to be alive. We've got a three game Sunday slate before the real deal kicks off on Monday but there's plenty to dissect. Let's get back into baseball y'all.
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Opponent - TB (Archer) Park - @TB
FD - 36.12 DK - 23.77
It’s always a little weird to promote both sides of a pitching matchup, but our system really sees that as the play in the Yankees/ Rays affair. It has the lowest over/under on the day at 6.5 and Tanaka is coming in at a slight -120 favorite even on the road. Tanaka wasn’t a big strikeout guy last season, K-ing only 7.44 per nine but he made up for it some with elite control only walking 1.61 batters per nine. He pitched to a respectable 3.51 xFIP and the story today for this game (as I’ll mention with Archer) is the park depressing runs. The Rays aren’t much of an offense and didn’t do anything in the off season to really improve it. Tanaka is a fine price play in cash games and I like that Vegas has him giving up the least runs on the day.
Opponent - NYY (Tanaka) Park - @TB
FD - 33.71 DK - 22.27
Archer is coming off a solid 2016 season that saw him pst a 3.41 xFIP while striking out more than 10 batters per nine. It was a carry over from his 2015 campaign that saw him slightly worse in xFIP while running bad in ERA (4.02). He’ll start the season facing a Yankees squad who added Matt Holliday in the offseason but still feature a weaker bottom of the order. The park helps a ton here with Tropicana Field ranks in the bottom third in terms of park factor home run rates. It suppresses scoring and power all around. On such a short slate with ace-level (ish) pitchers all around, picking the best of the bunch is tough. I’ll take Archer in the middle of the salary pack and look for the K upside.
Opponent - ARI (Greinke) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.88 DK - 7.34
With six solid-to-excellent starting pitchers going today we need to take small edges when we can find them. While still one of the best offensive catchers in the league (the position is crazy short to being with) it’s worth noting that Posey only hit 14 home runs in almost a full compliment of games last season and barely scraped the OPS over .800. He plays in a pitcher’s park for half his home games though and today gets to play in Chase Field which rates out as one of the best power parks in the game. He also gets Greinke who I see as the weakest pitcher on the slate (weak being a relative term here). We usually want to target Posey in lefty matchups, but the pick-ens’ are thin at catcher and the pricing on Posey is rather soft.
Opponent - STL (Martinez) Park - @STL
FD - 9.24 DK - 6.99
I’m writing this under the assumption Contreras is batting fifth for the Cubs today (and that he’s starting). Willson made a name for himself after being called up last season, entering an already high-powered Cubs’ offense and mashed to an .840 OPS and .206 ISO. He strikes out a bunch (around 24% of the time in limited PAs last season) but the power upside and slot in the order having him as an excellent value. I like him a lot here against Carlos Martinez and the Cubs should have one of the highest implied run totals of the day.
Opponent - STL (Martinez) Park - @STL
FD - 11.96 DK - 8.77
You are going to see a lot of Cubs on the list today and for good reason. They were the best offense in baseball last season and short of Dexter Fowler, are returning basically the same team. Rizzo’s been a model of consistency over the last three seasons averaging about a .900 OPS and 32 home runs like clockwork. It’s actually kind of scary how similar he’s been year over year since 2014. Carlos Martinez has one of the lowest K rates of any pitcher on this slate and though we usually wouldn’t target hitters against him, this first day of games features good pitchers up and down. Stack the Cubs.
Opponent - ARI (Greinke) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.63
Speaking of low pitcher K rates on this slate, Zack Greinke has the lowest of the group from last season, striking out only 7.6 per nine. It’s one of the reasons I do like getting the Giants in on some value plays today. Greinke was just an average pitcher last season and San Fran gets to hit in the best hitter’s park on the slate. Belt carried a nearly elite 16% BB rate last season that helped him reach base nearly 40% of the time. His .868 OPS is impressive considering his home park and I do like him coming cheap here.
Opponent - STL (Martinez) Park - @STL
FD - 10.09 DK - 7.56
The Cubs moved Zobrist around in the order last year (usually either second or fifth) but I think he’ll stick in the cleanup slot to start the season and that makes him a fantastic play in cash games against Martinez. Zobrist actually walked more than he struck out last season (15% to 13%) a rare feat in modern day baseball. That kind of points expectation on top of his slot in the order make him an incredibly “safe” play going in. We can’t recommend too many Cubs here really and he’ll be a chalk play in cash games.
Opponent - NYY (Tanaka) Park - @TB
FD - 9.63 DK - 7.27
When the Rays traded Logan Forsythia in the off season it opened up the second base slot for Miller who used to be a SS of DFS choice last season. That’s because he saw a massive spike in power, hitting 30 HRs which tripled his previous best for a season. Don’t expect the same kind of power output considering his 20% HR/FB rate but he should still hit second for the Rays which has him at an excellent plate appearance expectation. Again, the 2016 home run tally is almost assuredly an anomaly (he still only slashed a .243/.304/.382) but I think he’s the best 2B value on this short slate. (Note: Miller is a shortstop on DK)
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Opponent - CHC (Lester) Park - @STL
FD - 9.97 DK - 7.6
He projects to start the season in the two hole for the Cardinals, sandwiched between Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter. That’s an excellent spot to accrue fantasy points and Diaz rates out as the best shortstop value on this short Opening Day slate. He put up excellent numbers last season for anyone, but especially a shortstop. He OPS’d .879 with 17 HRs and got the ball in play a lot (only a 13% K rate). He ran a little bad in BABIP against lefties so it’s a little early to make any true judgments on his splits because of the small sample size. So I wouldn’t read too much into that facing Lester today.
Opponent - ARI (Greinke) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.86 DK - 6.64
I suspect he hits fifth for the Giants today and is already going in the best hitter’s park on the slate. I much prefer his $2400 tag on FanDuel where he’s coming basically as a punt play. He’s an above average hitter for a shortstop (.742 OPS last season) and did have a little pop with 12 home runs. He’s essentially platoon neutral for his career and I see him mostly a price play today.
Opponent - STL (Martinez) Park - @STL
FD - 12.05 DK - 8.97
One of the big money hitters I’ll be rostering on this small Sunday slate of baseball. He’s far and away projected for the most points at the position today (and likely for many days this season). Bryant’s coming off a tremendous 2016 season that saw him slash .292/.385/.554 (oh and also win the World Series). He clubbed 39 home runs, reduced his K rate from 30% to 22% over the previous season and mashed a sick .262 ISO. He’s on the short list of superstar hitters in the league and I suspect he’s the chalk play at 3B considering the pricing is rather soft to start the season.
Opponent - CHC (Lester) Park - @STL
FD - 8.12 DK - 6.04
I’ll be honest, Bryant is so far and away the best play at third that I considered not even writing anyone else up. Peralta is a distant (very distant, like can barely see him) second in terms of value plays and even that’s a stretch. But I wanted to give at least one other option. He projects to hit sixth for the Cardinals. The upshot on him here is he’s been better against lefties for his career with a 109 wRC+ and .780 OPS so facing Lester does give him a slight boost in the platoon split. Mostly to be used in Cardinals’ stacks but makes for an ok cheap play if you for some reason fade Bryant in cash.
Opponent - STL (Martinez) Park - @STL
FD - 13.54 DK - 9.89
Is the system bullish on Mr. Kyle? Uh duh. It’s easy to see why he’s such a value play on this short slate of game (and over the long term as well) considering he’s going to presumably leadoff in front of guys like Bryant, Rizzo, etc. This is the essentially the perfect time to buy on the guy. Schwarber’s a relatively known commodity at this point, sporting a 13% walk rate and career .832 OPS (only 278 PAs but man were they good ones). I suspect on this short slate he’s a very popular play considering the price and the slot in the batting order. It should be a great season for the guy.
Opponent - ARI (Greinke) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.13 DK - 7.39
Opponent - ARI (Greinke) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.53 DK - 7.1
I get that there’s a running theme with these picks (Cubs and mostly Giants) but that’s the way it goes with a day like this one in the majors. You won’t have another small slate, for probably the rest of the season, where every pitcher is so good. But like I said with some other San Fran guys, Greinke is probably the worst of the bunch and they get a power boost in the park. Assuming Span is hitting leadoff and Pence is slotted in the four hole, I like rounding these guys out in the OF for cash games. Pence is an above average, .800’s ish OPS guy who will take a walk here and there. Span actually showed a little pop last season hitting a career high 12 home runs.
Strongly consider A.J. Pollock
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