Charlotte Hornets guard Kemba Walker (15) grabs a rebound against the Utah Jazz during the second half in an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016, in Salt Lake City. The Jazz won 102-73. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Eleven games in the NBA tonight with a bunch of bad defenses taking the court. Plenty to break down here on a Full Friday of basketball.
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Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 29.39 DK - 31.03
After Tuesday’s crushing loss to the Miami Heat the Detroit Pistons playoff odds have plummeted to near zero (though thankfully they eked out a win against the lowly Nets last night). The Pistons have stopped short of declaring their star point guard shutdown for the year, but it is highly unlikely he will return. Without Jackson, Ish Smith will presumably get his 5th straight start and see up to 30+ minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks. For Smith’s last four starts he has been averaging 23 FD pts per game and really this average should be much higher if not for Orlando blowing out the Pistons where Smith only saw 15 minutes. Assuming the Pistons can keep it close (Bucks favored by 9.5 pts) I like Smith as a safe cash option.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 30.79 DK - 32.56
The White Mamba has been given some additional run since Sergio Rodríguez left with a left hamstring strain. Against Brooklyn he saw 35 minutes and dished out 10 ast and in his encore performance against Atlanta he saw 37 minutes and had 13 pts and 8 ast. The coaches son is a pure PG, so it isn’t unfathomable that TJ dishes out 9 ast and grabs multiple steals against the Cav’s defenseless Kyrie Irving. I really like TJ due to the fact that he has no true PG backup with Rodríguez and Bayless out. TJ’s reasonable salary makes him a safe cash option.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 41.02 DK - 43.45
Buzz City has basically nothing to play for since they have basically been eliminated from the playoffs, but tonight they get a prime matchup against the Denver Nuggets who let up the most fantasy pts to point guards. Additionally the Nuggets let up the 2nd most amount of assists and steals and the third most three pointers to point guards. Simply Kemba has the opportunity eat tonight against old man Jameer Nelson. In Kemba’s last four games he has averaged 38 FD fantasy pts and in the one game against Denver this year he put up 42.8 FD pts. Currently this game has the 2nd highest projected total at 221 pts, so Kemba should easily be able to hit value and then some in this high tempo game. Walker is bit of a bargain on FD at $7.6K, but still reasonable on DK making him a nice play in all formats.
Consider Isaiah Thomas
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 21.65 DK - 23.76
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 21.67 DK - 23.65
Yesterday we learned that Jahil Okafor (sore knee), Sergio Rodríguez (hamstring), and Robert Covington (knee) will not play tonight and for us in DFS this opens a slew of value, but are any of these 76er’s any good? Sauce Castillo (Stauskas) and TLC (Luwawu-Cabarrot) both see a slight salary increase after going 8X and 7X against Atlanta. Stauskas came off the bench but saw 35 minutes and put up 9 pts, 5 reb, 7 ast, 3 stl for 29.5 FD pts. Is Sauce Castillo a Westbrook-lite-lite player now? No, since we can’t expect Nik to register that many reb, ast, and stls, but tonight with a very short rotation and no real backup PG Nik maybe asked to play another 35 minutes and handle the ball more. Over the last two weeks Nik has averaged 20.8 FD pts per game and I can see him having success against the Cavilers who letup the third most fantasy pts to shooting guards. TLC has averaged 17.6 FD pts in the last 11 games he has started. He has also shown a nice ceiling by putting up 25 and 33 FD pts in his last two games, but he has also had games where foul trouble limited him. If TLC can keep his paws to himself I can see him playing 33 minutes or so with a depleted 76er’s roster. Pricing wise TLC is a better play on DK, but on FD I give the edge to Stauskas who doesn’t suffer from paw grabbing like TLC.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 22.67 DK - 24.63
Hood might have finally found his stride after coming back from injury. In his last two games he has hit 30 and 26 FD pts. With George Hill and Raul Neto both questionable with groin injuries Hood could see his minutes in the mid twenties against the Washington Wizards. We shouldn’t forget that Hood this year once was a $5k+ player so on FD his $4k salary is a bargain if you think he can string together a third straight good game. The last time Hood faced the Wizards he made value by putting up 21.6 FD pts. There is definitely risk in playing Rodney since he has a pretty low floor, so for me he remains a GPP option.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.81 DK - 36.4
Batum has been in a slump for the past two weeks averaging only 26 FD pts, but tonight he get’s the Denver Nuggets who give up the most fantasy pts to shooting guards. I think at this point you should understand that the Nuggets are fantasy gold for opposing guards. Over the past two seasons Batum has averaged 33.5 FD pts against the Nuggets. Due to Batum’s slump we get the Frenchie at sub $7K, which makes him a nice bargain in the 2nd highest projected total of the night at 221 pts. I think we have seen Batum’s floor at 26 fantasy pts but he also has a ceiling of 40+ fantasy pts. I think you can stack both Kemba and Batum tonight and both of them are nice plays in all formats.
Consider Klay Thompson
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 25.61 DK - 27.43
Not looking to break the bank? Let me present you Justin Anderson who started for the 76er’s last game due to Covington missing time due to knee soreness. Last game against Atlanta Anderson played 25 minutes and scored 10 pts. Listen, Anderson is a lot like an Arizona Ice Tea that you commonly find at a bodega for a $1, it’s cheap and you can semi stomach it. In his three starts this year Anderson has averaged 20 FD pts and really this is what you can expect from Anderson who can’t shoot like Stauskas and doesn’t pick up peripheral stats like TLC. I expect Anderson to see double digit FGA but I just don’t see him making many of them or doing anything beyond that, still at his price tag and with his opportunity I think he makes a good value option.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 46.58 DK - 48.89
The NBA’s dark horse MVP candidate has been hit or miss in his last nine games since coming back from a concussion. In those nine games Leonard has only made value three times. If you don’t count the last game against OKC where Leonard suffered his concussion and only played 24 minutes, he has averaged 47 fantasy pts per game against OKC in the last two years. Since the Spurs are within striking distance of the GWS I don’t think anyone will get Popped but which Leonard do we see? Leonard for me is a big game type of player and with this game being nationally televised I think Leonard shows up and we all will be singing Katy Perry’s Dark Horse as Kawhi makes value tonight.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 31 DK - 32.36
Marc Gasol is day to day with a foot injury and if he is unable to go against Dallas Z-BO could start or at least see some more run. In the three games with out Gasol, Randolph has started in two of them and averaged 30 minutes, 16 pts, and 10 reb. In the Grizzlies last game JaMychal Green was out and Zach came off the bench to give the 2nd unit scoring power and he produced 17 pts and 6 reb in only 24 minutes. Ideally we would like to see Randolph start and play as close to 30 minutes as possible. I don’t love the match up against Nerlens Noel who is quicker than Z-BO, but strength and body fat wise Randolph should overpower the Noel and be able to score close to twenty points and grab at least ten rebounds. I like Randolph on FD in all formats but on DK just for cash.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 24.55 DK - 25.66
If any of you are Pacers or Thaddeus Young fans you would know that Young has been pretty god awful for what seems like forever (due to injury), but it seems Young has turned the corner in his last two games hitting 5X and 9X. The last game against the depleted Grizzlies, Young had 38 fantasy pts. At $4K, now is a great time to buy low on Young who started the year as a $6k player. The Pacers get the Toronto Raptors tonight who aren’t an easy match up PF wise, but with the Pacers still in the playoff hunt I see Young getting 30 minutes, double digit FGA, and making value. So how many Thaddeus Young shares can I get you tonight?
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 38.91 DK - 41.43
With no Ryan Anderson (ankle), Trevor Ariza gets the privilege of guarding the nut slapper Draymond Green who has been great against the Golden State Warriors. The last game against Houston without Anderson, Draymond went to work and put up 39.8 FD pts with 19 pts, 9 reb, 4 ast, and 3 stl. Trevor Ariza should have his hands full since Green is basically a puffy Swiss Army Knife that can do a little bit of everything. Match up aside Green has had success against the Rockets averaging 44 FD pts in the three games this year. Every once in a while Green shows up and does a Westbrook-lite performance with a triple double, giving us a nice 50-60 pt ceiling. With this game having the highest projected total at 231 pts, I like Green in all formats.
Consider Dario Saric and Richaun Holmes
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.06 DK - 28.11
There are a lot of big name centers on today’s slate, but if you don’t want to spend up for names like DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gobert, or Hassan Whiteside than Cody Zeller might fit the bill. I suspect that Zeller will not have a ton of ownership since he isn’t a household name and due to the fact that that he duded in his last two games. His 13 fantasy pts in last game against the Raptors was mostly due to foul trouble where he fouled out, but overall this season he has been solid averaging 23.5 FD pts per game. Additionally, his last game against Denver he put up 25 FD fantasy pts. This game has the 2nd highest projected total of the night.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 39.05 DK - 40.81
The Bucks give up the 10th most fantasy pts to opposing centers and tonight Andre Drummond is coming to town. Maybe I should have started off with the fact that Drummond has been pretty bad as of late only averaging 29 FD pts in his last five games, while in contrast he has averaged 36 FD pts for the year. I see this as a possible bounce back spot since there is no one that can contain Drummond when he is rolling. In the Pistons first game against the Bucks this year Drummond went off with 20 pts, 23 reb, and 3 blk for 59 FD pts. In his other two games against the Bucks he had 28 and 37 FD pts, so which big man do we see tonight? I like Cousins (revenge game), Gobert (just a beast), and Whiteside (against NYK) but they are all $8k+ so if you need a value GPP option look to the Detroit big man.
Strongly consider Demarcus Cousins if you think he sees minutes anywhere close to the 40 he saw last game.
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View Comments
These picks suck. Yesterday's picks were awesome I cashed out big time but these picks are kinda bass lot of hit or miss guys that mostly miss I guess today I'll have to find my own good plays smh horrible article
These seem like decent if you wanted to round out your roster picks or were looking to get away cheap. If you are paying up for Westbrook or Harden you are going to need to find inexpensive options. I completely agree on Kemba, he is a MUST. They won't go out there and tell you the obvious like Westbrook or Harden. Whiteside versus the putrid Knicks same thing, it's obvious.
Whiteside is obvious? He didn't do much against the Knick a game ago, I don't get why D Cousins is not on here, hes going up his former team and i think he got revenge on his mind, I see him putting up 60 fantasy points easily
Revenge narratives are basically a myth. That being said, we were a little low on Cousins' minutes in the original run of projections. He's a good play tonight.
I don't see Westbrook and/or Harden as must/ obvious picks tonight. Both are very expensive and Westbrook's in a very tough matchup.
after doing a little more research, I see what you mean about Westbrook. San Antonio gives up the 2nd fewest points to PG's?
Thanks for reading. Glad you had success yesterday with the picks. Rather than just deeming the entire article "horrible" care to elaborate on who you would have written up instead?
You need an enema. Grow up ingrate.
Why does every player in the write up have the same theme every write up is like this guy has been bad but he might have a good game today I know it's a huge slate but these picks are suspect this is the donation to the sharks line of picks. I'll pass on the picks today hopefully you guys get it together by tomorrow and give some good picks.
Who would you have written up instead?
some of these picks are good i like the Kemba pick and Mcconnell pick i was just reading the picks and the comments i'm a long time subscriber i agree with everything that everybody said LBVS i will agree Austyn Varney picks yesterday were dead on he damn near put up the perfect line-up in his article today is a much lager slate but we will see how things pan out guys good luck to you all
Thanks Alonzo. System definitely wanting to fade the bigger money guys tonight for a variety of reasons (cost, matchup, etc). Like I said, the one omission who is showing up more now is Boogie that I raised his minutes. That one's my bad.
Thanks Doug and especially J.R. Had my lights cut off yesterday and I hit big with min stack with Lillard at point and now have money to pay bill thanks and can use a helping hand today
Yeah system on a nice little heater.
I have been cashing frequently..... I like using the system to round out my picks.
hey Doug ask Austyn for me who he likes today lbvs
No one is making you guys read the article. If you don't like the licks do your own research or look elsewhere. Y'all sound like little spoiled children
Nine of yesterday's 16 picks were in winning lineups in the gpp's
I played in. I hit 300 right on the nose in two of 3 but didn't cash which shows 5x value often doesn't do it anymore
Great job Joe. Lots to think about tonight. Always easier writing up a 5 game vs an 11 gamer. Keep up the good work guys.
I should note these write ups aren't a Bible for who to play. For a little perspective these articles are all written the night before so new value is bound to show up. As you could tell some of these picks I was a little skittish on but at the moment this is what the projections are pushing out. On a big 11 game slate there are plenty of alternatives.
And for the record I only contribute to DFSR as myself (the one and only Joseph Rasero). If you have any questions catch me in the chat or cash me outside.
Best of luck to everyone
Good article except white mamba , not the face that you put him there . But the fact that you would diss Kobe lol