Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - Shell Houston Open

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE. If you are looking for some help with either sheet please go check out my YouTube video going over this week's sheet for the Shell Houston Open.

Shell Houston Open

Here we are just one week away from the biggest tournament in golf and a chance to win a cool Million Dollars on DraftKings. Before we get ahead ourselves, however, we have to get through one more week which turns out to be an excellent rehearsal for the Masters. The Shell Houston Open and this course(now named Golf Club of Houston) has hosted this tournament for over 10 years now and tailored the course to represent a very close comparison to Augusta National. From the shaved banks to the overseeded Bermuda greens that come very close to the speed of the Augusta Bentgrass tops. These are just some of the reasons why the tournament director has no problem drawing some of the best golfers in the world. This year we have four of the Top 10 and 15 of the world's Top 50 golfers. Let's take a look at the last five year's winners and the scorecard before jumping into the fantasy approach.

• 2016 - Jim Herman(-15)
• 2015 - J.B. Holmes(-16)
• 2014 - Matt Jones(-15)
• 2013 - D.A. Points(-16)
• 2012 - Hunter Mahan(-16)

The Course

Golf Club of Houston
Par 72 - 7,457 Yards
Greens - Bermuda

*Click to enlarge*

The Stats & Fantasy Approach

My main model will once again be leaning heavily on Ball Striking 2.0 (Strokes Gained Off the Tee+Approach) with a sprinkle of Driving Distance, Par 4 and 5 scoring and of course Birdie or Better %. The rough is short and won't hurt the players who aren't as accurate, for the most part. I say this as there is water in play on about half the holes.

Looking at the cheatsheet and the last three years results with year-end stat correlation, Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Par 4 Scoring and Birdie or Better % were the only stats that showed up each year inside the top five. I will be weighing each of them together and separately in different models(If you are wanting to make you own model be sure to check out this week's YouTube video for the Shell Houston Open). When it comes to the Par 4's, six of the 10 of them are under 450 yards and this is where golfers can make or break their tournaments if they fail to score on them. Also note that Par 5 scoring is going to be very important as well as 40% or more of the birdies have been scored on them over the last three years as well.

Having Jordan Spieth sitting $1,300 more than any other golfer(on DraftKings) is going to, in my opinion, push a lot of people down to start a more balanced lineup. If you know me or have read my articles in the past, you have probably noticed that I always favor Spieth, especially this time of year.

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanSharSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". They have also added Salary Differential, Subject Tags and Projections. All the tools you need to help you become a better daily fantasy golf player.

High End Targets ($9,000+)

Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (6.5/1)
Draftkings ($12,000)
FanDuel ($10,500)

No surprise here at the top this week as I roll with Spieth as he prepares to take back the Green Jacket in Augusta next week. He ranks #1 on my sheet and hits on everything I am looking for this week. He ranks fourth in SG: OTT + APP, first in Par 5 Scoring, second in par 4 Scoring, and first in Bogey Avoidance and Birdie or Better %. I could go on but that sums it up pretty well. He didn't have much success here early in his career with a T50 and missed cut but finished T2 here the year he won the Masters and T12 last season. He comes into this week with a win, four top 10 finishes and has just one finish outside of 12th place. I also believe the gap in price at the top will also help keep his ownership down. My suspicions appear correct as he has been mentioned eight times on FanShareSports, three of which were sit recommendations. Lock and load in GPP my friends!

Rickie Fowler
World Golf Ranking (#9)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($9,500)

If you are looking for the chalk this week, look no further than Rickie Fowler. His price has reached the $10K mark for the first time since the Honda Classic where he took home the trophy and comes back to a course where he has had success. He has picked up a Top 10 in two of his last three trips here to Humble, Texas. He has one missed cut back at the Farmers Insurance Open in January but responded quickly with a T4 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open followed by his win at the Honda and now two straight Top 16 finishes. Statistically, he fits the model perfectly ranking Top 10 in SG: T2G, SG: OTT + APP, SG: Putting, GIR OTF, Par 4 scoring and Bogey Avoidance(3rd in stats model). Look for Rickie to get on track for another big Majors run like 2014.

J.B. Holmes
World Golf Ranking (#37)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)
FanDuel ($8,400)

While his stat rankings of 65th in Bogey Avoidance and 9th in BoB% would suggest he is very inconsistent that is far from the truth. He has made the cut in all seven tournaments this season with three Top 25's and Two Top 15 finishes. In fact, he hasn't missed a cut since the Wyndham back in August. Think that is the best part? Wrong! He comes back to the Shell Houston Open with a fantastic track record. He won here in a playoff in his last trip back in 2015, finished T12 in 2014 and 8th back in 2012. Nothing else really stands out from a statistical standpoint besides his bomb drives and elite birdie and eagle making ability. His salary has peaked at $9,200 on DraftKings and hopefully, that steers some away. Either way, he is a great play here in Humble, Texas.

Also Consider: Adam Scott

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Nick Watney
World Golf Ranking (#287)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($8,100)
FanDuel ($6,800)

My angle here was originally geared towards ownership as I think Henley, Howell, and Mickelson will command a large majority in the $8K range. For cash games, I think any of those guys make great plays in a balanced lineup but I don't play cash games and will lean towards the ownership edge for GPP's. That is definitely not the only thing to like about him this week as he returns to the Golf Club of Houston with a T25 and T27 in his last two trips. Statistically, he only really stands out in my main stat this week where he ranks 17th in the field in SG: APP + OTT. Even with a T14 finish in three of his last four tournaments, I don't trust him in cash but love the upside in tournaments.

Patrick Reed
World Golf Ranking (#12)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($7,700)
FanDuel ($8,700)

First of all, he is one a handful of players who has a FanDuel salary higher than his DraftKings salary. Obviously, DraftKings works more on current form as his salary has dropped $2,000 since his last appearance at the Valspar. Since opening the 2017 portion of the season with a T6 and T12 at the Tourny of Champions and CareerBuilder Challenge, Reed has been very disappointing with four finishes outside the Top 30 in five tournaments and an early exit at the WGC Match Play. This will drive his ownership down as well opening a window to grab an elite player( I say this as he is 12th in the world rankings) at low ownership and salary. All he really needs to do is get the approach game rolling and he will be back in the winner's circle in no time.

Also Consider: Cameron Smith

Low End Targets (Min Price - $6,900)

Chris Stroud
World Golf Ranking (#302)
Vegas Odds (175/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
FanDuel ($5,200)

Stroud headlines my low-end values this week as he saw a decrease in salary that puts him in the bottom tier. He is coming off a T8 at the Puerto Rico Open which I know was a weak field but it had to be lifting as it was his first Top 10 since the FRYS.com Open at the start of last season. He will now look to continue his hot play at the Shell Houston Open with his fourth straight Top 30 finish. There is, even more, value using him on FanDuel with a low $5K price tag.

Jamie Lovemark
World Golf Ranking (#92)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)
FanDuel ($6,400)

For the first time in nine tournaments(start of 2017 at Sony Open) Lovemark has seen his price drop below $7K. This is great news as his game is beginning to trend in the right direction with a T27 and T23 finish in his last two tournaments(Valspar and Arnold Palmer Inv). He checks out statistically ranking 14th in driving distance, 8th in Par 4 scoring and 11th in Par 5 scoring. He finished T18 here last year and there is no reason he can't duplicate that this time around.

Also Consider:  Michael Kim

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

Shell Houston Open Update Thread

**Weather Update**

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.