Detroit Pistons' Andre Drummond (0) scores as San Antonio Spurs defenders Boris Diaw (33) and Patty Mills (8) look on during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2015, in San Antonio. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Monday hoops, y'all! We have a solid 6 game slate to dig through - a few teams that are normally blowout risks should see their minutes, and several teams that play slow and play solid defense. I think there's still plenty of value to be had here, though, so let's do this like Brutus.
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Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.36 DK - 32.39
A simple case of which track record you trust - Hill's season long averages of 28 fantasy points per game, or the recent stumble? Hill's last tilt with the Clippers was a complete disaster, but there are actually a lot of positive signs if you peer back just a little bit further. He shot 17 and 18 times in the two games prior while posting healthy rebounding and assist totals, and we potentially get a little bonus here if Gordon Hayward winds up having to take a night off. What really drives this ranking, though, is the match-up. If you accept Hill as a 28 fantasy point per game guy, it's trivial to give him a few extra points on account of him playing the 3rd best match-up in the entire league for opposing point guards. This looks like a solid (if slight) value that I'd be happy to gobble up for cash game purposes, particularly with how shallow this position appears to be at first glance.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 30.51 DK - 32.31
Rose's minutes had been sort of all over the place, but he managed 36 of them against the Spurs in what wound up being a close game. Vegas hasn't set a line for this game just yet (probably based on the Melo news), but with Detroit's pace I don't foresee a blowout being the average case in this one. If Melo plays I don't think he's nearly as good a value, but the extra shots to go around make a big difference here. It's also worth noting that the Pistons are leaning toward starting Ish Smith again, and while I'm a well documented believer in Ish's ability to run the point, he's an incredible liability on D against an athletic ball handler like Rose. I don't know if I'd be thrilled with Rose for big tournaments since this rates to be a pretty slow contest, but I'm fine accepting whatever risk there is here for cash games.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 58.93 DK - 63.3
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 34.8 DK - 37.47
I (rather oddly) admit that these two seem like a weird pairing, but I have my reasons! Holiday is underpriced to his current opportunity thanks to the looming presence of Cousins, but with Cousins likely missing this one, there are a heck of a lot more shots to go around. Westbrook, meanwhile, has been an absolute man on a mission all season, and recent returns suggest that he could stomach a $500 price increase and still be a value in a league average match-up. But that's the fly in the ointment for both of these fine young gentlemen. I'd be slam dunking these guys if they DID have league average match-ups, but both have managed to land well below league average ones, leaving us in a fairly tough spot here. I still don't mind either for cash game purposes, but it's relatively tough to see them winding up in big tournament winning lineups tonight.
Also considered: Ish Smith, if he starts and you think his true minutes target is 30 minutes.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 43.26 DK - 45.21
I'm not sure shooting guard is really where we want to pay up tonight, but if we decide that the below guys are too risky (and you might decide they are too risky), I view DeRozan as a fairly high floor option in his current situation. Cries of DeRozan's much-ballyhooed demise seemed to be ultimately premature after back to back great performances against Miami and Chicago, but he paraded back to Stinksville with an underwhelming 18/3/6 line against Dallas. I'm more a believer in the prior two games, though. Dallas has played the 2nd slowest PACE in the league this season, where Orlando plays a league average pace. DeRozan still looks underpriced to me thanks to a bad stretch in early March, and if you believe in his gigantic post-Lowry usage he should be a terrific big money value on a night where we might be light on exactly those.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 24.11 DK - 25.69
The hate has simply gone too far. It's been a rough couple of games for KCP for sure, but can we really buy that a guy who's played 35-40 minutes a game for what feels like an eternity is finally getting the axe after two poor performances in blowout games? I call shenanigans. You'd have been thrilled if you played him against Phoenix or Brooklyn, and while those are admittedly great match-ups, the Knicks are no great shakes themselves. They've allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards this season, and are, as always, playing for stone cold cold nothing. Courtney Lee is a slight step up from the defenders they've featured there for much of the season, but on a slate filled with bad match-ups, this one is certainly on the upper end.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 22.22 DK - 23.53
This pick comes down to one major factor - I'm a believer in the current minutes. Lee has played 35, 40, and 41 minutes in his last 3 games, and he's blatantly a much better option than Sasha Vujacic and company. Lee has put in workhorse minutes in the past, and the Knicks don't really have any young guys they are trying to get minutes the way some punting teams are. He's put up 5x and 6.5x in each of his last two games, and while the Pistons aren't a fantastic match-up, they aren't enough to scare me off some significant value here. It's important to keep an eye on Carmelo Anthony's status, here, as even on limited minutes Melo chews up quite a bit of usage. If Melo's out, though, I'll be happy to play Lee in any format.
Consider: Wesley Matthews.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 45.97 DK - 48.39
Oh, baby. Kawhi comes into this game with a mixed track record of performing on these prices, but it's important to remember that the Spurs play a normal game script something like once a week. This is one of those rare instances where the Spurs are squaring off against a team who can (more than?) hang, and in times like these, we can typically pencil him in for 36-39 minutes. He happens to be going up against the greatest player of a generation, but King James and the Cavs have actually allowed a top 6 total in terms of fantasy points per game to opposing SFs this season. I still think Kawhi is about $500 cheaper than his true value in a non-blowout match-up, and since he's got one here, I suspect he'll be pretty highly owned in 50/50s and double-ups.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 21.91 DK - 23.24
Tucker is frankly just underpriced relative to his current opportunity. He's played 33-34 minutes in each of his last 3 games, and handily paid these prices in each of those in spite of having a bad match-up in each. It's no fluke, either. We've seen Tucker put up big totals in minutes like these in his previous stop with Phoenix, and while the fun might not last forever when Carroll is healthy, it doesn't look like that will be the case on Monday. Even when Carroll's played recently he's been out there for just 20 minutes a game, and 30+ minutes from Tucker makes a fantasy total over 20 feel almost guaranteed. Okay, busted. No guarantees in daily fantasy basketball. But in a top 8 fantasy match-up for opposing small forwards, there's way I'm fading Tucker if he's starting again.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 30.08 DK - 31.71
Barnes has become a bread and butter player in our projection system recently, and my ongoing confusion about his pricing continues. He's not exactly the sexiest play in the world, sure, but he's averaged better than 5x points per dollar on the season, and you've really only been disappointed on these prices in 4 or so games since the beginning of February. After a brief usage dip in 3 consecutive weird games (blowouts with GS and PHI, and an odd one with BKN) he's back to his old ones, putting up 17 and 18 shots in his last two games and hanging 40 fantasy points on the Raptors in a very well rounded performance in his last go around. It's a league average match-up with the Thunder on paper, but the 1 point spread and the fact that the Thunder have played the league's 7th fastest pace this season are enough of a tie-breaker for me that I'd be pumped to put Barnes in any of my lineups.
Keep an eye on Carmelo Anthony - if he sits again, Mindaugas Kuzminskas would be a great value (and would be very highly owned) once again.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 36 DK - 37.47
As of this writing Z-Bo has paid this price in 3 quarters against Golden State, and with no established time-table for Gasol's return, I'm assuming we'll get at least one more game out of him on Monday. It looks like Randolph is going to be on a 32-35 minute rotation in close games, and there's no reason to think this one will be anything but. He should have a very favorable match-up against the presently undersized Kings, and again, we're just looking at a plyer who's priced like he's going to play 20%-30% fewer minutes than he likely will here. No need to belabor the point - if Gasol sits and Z-Bo starts, just play him.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 33.15 DK - 34.99
Kristaps (and his daily fantasy owners) got positively buried rolling him out there against the Spurs, but that was at least partially to be expected. The Pistons are a below league average match-up, sure, but the Spurs are one of the very worst in the league, and Porzingis was still nearly showing up in our optimal lineups. He was also owned by 51% of the field who managed to not play him as well. Why? The absence of Carmelo Anthony and Joakim Noah. All signs point to Porzingis being worth nearly 10% more with those two off the court, and even Melo's potential return might not be enough to sour this one.
Also considered: Tobias Harris. The performance has been sort of all over the place recently, but this is a top 8 match-up with the Knicks, and with how crazy the Detroit situation has been recently I believe things will start normalizing soon.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 32.63 DK - 34.46
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 41.41 DK - 43.15
These two will square off against one another tonight, and both make for interesting DFS plays for different reasons. Billy Hernangomez is of course your upside dream. He's coming off a 44 point breakout against the Spurs, where he drew the start and almost single handedly kept the Knicks in the game with a 24/13 performance while Porzingis dealt with foul trouble. I don't think we can count on the 36 minutes he saw, but if we think he tops 30 minutes he'll be a great value here. As for Drummond, we're on back to back games where he hasn't paid these prices, and honestly that's probably what we're going to have to expect from him any time we run him out there. I won't bother you with the excuses as to why Drummond lost minutes - they're well documented at this pint - foul trouble, can't play the last few minutes of a close game, you get the idea. Still, in 10/10 match-ups like this one it's really hard to not dream on his considerable upside. He put up 40+ fantasy points in back to back games against Brooklyn and Phoenix in spite of averaging fewer than 30 minutes, and when we get the perfect storm of a great match-up and him playing his full minutes we might be in line for a 60+ point monster. Not sure if that will be tonight, but you can bet that I'll put a few tourney lineups in and give it a shot.
Also considered: No one, really. Pau is somewhat interesting after his last performance, but all that does is make him less of a secret. All in all I'm just going to split the top guys unless I get a reason not to.
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View Comments
nice picks james!
A lot of my guys I drafted in my lu's are mentioned in the article. Thought I was getting away with something w/ Z-Bo lol