Daily Fantasy NASCAR Picks for DraftKings - Auto Club 400

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Auto Club 400

Auto Club Speedway - Fontana, CA
Track - 2 Mile D Shaped Oval Superspeedway
14° Banking in the Corners

If you haven't already, be sure to go check out my  DFS NASCAR Race Preview article for all the top trends and stats.

Qualifying and practice have wrapped up and data has been entered in the sheet to produce the final model. It's time to construct some lineups. The biggest story of the weekend so far was the five drivers who missed qualifying and will start at the back. It opens up a ton of place differential value and will most definitely sway ownership in a huge way. This makes it a great week to try out multiple strategies. You can easily stack two or three elite place differential plays but they will be highly owned. This opens up an opportunity to also be contrarian. This doesn't mean making dumb roster moves, it just means making smart ones. You don't have to fade the place differential guys completely just don't center your lineup around a stack of them. Let's jump into the picks.

 

Drivers to Build Around

Jimmie Johnson
DraftKings - $9,800
Practice 1 - 24th
Qualified - 37th
Practice 2 - 4th
Final Practice - 16th

Jimmie spun into the grass in the opening practice and was forced to go to a backup(1B) car. Then they elected to not even qualify after not getting any practice time and will start 37th on Sunday. Not only does he provide elite value at a sub $10K price, he also has huge place differential upside. It gets better. Because he didn't qualify, the #48 will start on fresh tires and should be able to make up ground quickly. Look for Jimmie to push close to the Top 10 early into the second stage. He will be high owned but elite in all formats with a very high floor and ceiling.

 

Joey Logano
DraftKings - $10,300
Practice 1 - 5th
Qualified - 35th
Practice 2 - 12th
Final Practice - 6th

Logano and the #22 team will also start near the back as they were not able to get through tech inspection before round one of qualifying. This will give him elite place differential upside. He has never won here at Fontana but has a Top 5 and finished each of the last two races inside the Top 10. Looking at Michigan and Fontana combined(2-mile tracks), Logano is one of just two drivers to finish all six races over the last two years inside the Top 10. Looking at post-qualifying practices, he was 12th Saturday morning and is currently 5th in final practice. He costs a little more than Jimmie but is still an elite play in all formats.

 

 

Also Consider: Chase Elliott(Place differential + fastest in final practice)

 

 

Top Place Differential Value Plays

Ryan Blaney
DraftKings - $8,300
Practice 1 - 7th
Qualified - 19th
Practice 2 - 8th
Final Practice - 3rd

Blaney will be looking to redeem himself after a disappointing 35th place finish here last year in his rookie season. His price is consistently gone up each of the last four weeks but there is still room for it to go up. The Wood Brothers Ford Alliance with Team Penske is really paying off this season as they appear to be the most consistent, speed wise, week to week. Now is a great time to jump on board as he is starting 19th and his car got better as practice closed out. I would say his floor is Top 10 with upside of Top 5 finish. Stack him with one fo the elite guys above and you got yourself a solid start to a lineup that works in any format.

 

 

Trevor Bayne
DraftKings - $7,200
Practice 1 - 23rd
Qualified - 36th
Practice 2 - 26th
Final Practice - 15th

Another team that missed qualifying due to tech inspection will result in Bayne starting back in the 36th position. He doesn't have the speed of the other guys starting near the back but he also doesn't come with the shiny price tag either. He doesn't strike you as an elite play but listen to these stats from my trends sheet. He ranks 20th in average salary this season, 17th in average GPP ownership and 13th in average DraftKings points. He has scored 30+ in each of the first four races due to picking up positive place differential points in each race. To cap it off, the #6 car got better through the final two practices.

 

 

 

Bottom Tier Value Play

Gray Gaulding
DraftKings - $4,500
Practice 1 - 33rd
Qualified - 39th
Practice 2 - 34th
Final Practice - 32nd

Call me crazy, I don't care. I am a GPP player and look for an edge everywhere I can get it. This week I dip right to the bottom of the salary and take a huge risk with rookie Gray Gaulding. He missed qualifying and will start on the back row. He showed Top 30-35 speed in the final two practices and really just needs to finish there to hit his value. It is much more about how many elite plays you can get in your lineups with his rock bottom price. I will likely get mocked when it doesn't work out but I will bounce back. I always do.

 

 

 

Also Consider: Matt DiBenedetto(Missed Qual, starting at back with place diff value)

 

 

 

 

For a limited time I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE.

 

If you have any questions on lineups or drivers prior to lineup lock scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation. Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.