Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler (21) waits for a play to develop as he is guarded by New York Knicks' Arron Afflalo, right, during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015, in New York. New York defeated Chicago 107-91. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
We've got a full Friday in the NBA coming down the pike with a ton of upper tier guys to consider. Harden, Butler, Wall, Cousins, Thomas and more are all on the table.
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Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 35.54 DK - 37.56
As long as DFS sites don’t count FG%, Tyler the Creator is an elite option even at his elevated price. In his first four starts Tyler has averaged 41 minutes per game and 33 fantasy pts. Against MIA he attempted 11 FGA which is a bountiful amount, but in his prior three starts he took 18, 17, and 24 attempts and for a guy that has shot only 36% from the field in his first four starts it will be imperative he gets a full load of shots in order to make value. Facing Isaiah Thomas, Ulis gets one of the easiest PG matchups in the game (Thomas has a -4.31 Defensive Real Plus-Minus) but he faces the upward battle of keeping the game from blowing out since the Celtics are favored by 15 pts. Even if the game turns lopsided I still think Tyler will see his full set of minutes and with 40+ fantasy pt upside I like Tyler in all formats.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 43.04 DK - 45.84
Isaiah Thomas shouldn’t have a problem against the pint size 5’9” and 150 pound Tyler Ulis. So let the battle of the tiny point guards begin! While Ulis will safely see anywhere from 35-40 minutes I can’t say the same for Thomas who has averaged only 31 minutes per game in the last two weeks. Additionally with Boston being favored by 15 pts, the fourth-quarter killer might be limited to only three quarters if the Suns can’t keep it close. Earlier this month when Eric Bledsoe was still playing the Suns managed to only loose by three points against Boston (106-109) and Thomas scored 48 fantasy pts at a $9k+ salary. Thomas can get it cooking in a hurry so a floor of 30 fantasy pts will not kill you but lets hope he can play all four quarters for GPP value.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 48.78 DK - 51.92
Wall is another stud that has a cake matchup against the Brooklyn Net’s who could pass a D-League team on most nights. With an up-tempo game and the 2nd highest projected total at 224 pts for the night, John Wall could possible go ham on the defenseless Nets. Against the Net’s this year Wall has averaged 48 fantasy pts. There is blowout concern since Vegas has the spread at 12.5 pts, but none the less the Net’s have been able to hang around games all year even against some of the league’s better teams. Wall’s high price tag is another concern since he only has made value against the Nets one out of three games this year. Still it’s hard to deny Wall’s 70 pt ceiling in a plus matchup so I am considering him a GPP option.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.07 DK - 34.2
Rajon Rondo has been his typical elusive self, giving us some great games and others that had us screaming WOAT. Since being reinstated as the Bulls starter in the L6 games Rondo has averaged 29 fantasy pts. Against CHA, MEM, TOR Rondo averaged 36 minutes, 15 FGA, and 38 fantasy pts. Against WAS, UTA, and DET he averaged 27 minutes, 5 FGA, and 18 fantasy pts. So which Rondo do we get on tongiht? My guess is that the 76er’s TJ McConnell will not be a problem for Rondo and he can be considered in all formats.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 55.98 DK - 60.81
Jimmy and the Rockets get to face the New Orleans Pelicans in the highest projected total game at 228 pts. Even at his high $12k price I still like Harden in all formats due to him averaging 38.7 minutes, 24 FGA, 14 FTA, 40% usage rating, and 67 fantasy pts in the last three games. The Beard has made value in four out of his last five games and the last game against NOLA he put up 73 fantasy pts. For the year against NOLA he has averaged 57 fantasy pts. The only real flaw in Harden’s game is the fact that he has averaged 6.3 TO in the last three games, but considering the fact that he has triple-doubled in four out of his last six games Harden can more than makeup for his sloppy paws in multiple ways. Roster this dude.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 24.88 DK - 26.5
If you can guess which games KCP will go off you need to be playing the Powerball frequently. Simply there isn’t any true science on figuring out when the DET sharpshooter will pop off. In his L2 weeks he has been averaging 31.5 minutes, 11.1 FGA, and an 18% usage rating. Detroit is still in the playoff hunt and gets a pretty easy matchup against the bottom feeding Magic. I can see DET and KCP coming out early swinging. I do however prefer KCP on FanDuel at $4,600 compared to DraftKings $5,200, but either way due to KCP’s volatile nature he is a GPP option only.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 26.02 DK - 28.2
On the other hand we have Fournier who is more of a cash game play compared to KCP. In Fournier’s L3 games he has averaged 34 minutes, 14 FGA, 19.7 p/g, 24.4% usage rate, and 28 fantasy pts per game. Simply put the French prince has been ORL’s guy recently, but DET has not been an easy matchup for him since over the past two seasons he has averaged only 15.5 fantasy pts against them. So do we trust Evan’s recent success in the last three games or is his poor success against DET an indication we need to fade him? I tend to believe that Evan’s minutes and usage is too good to be overlook but I will only be playing him in tournaments.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.82 DK - 49.92
Jimmy Buckets got into a shoot out with DDR two games ago and he flashed his huge upside by putting up 64 fantasy pts. This whole season Jimmy has been getting plenty of minutes (37 m/g) and plenty of FGA (16.2 fga/g) though at times he has looked disengaged and looked like he could care less. But with Dwayne Wade out of the picture Jimmy has regained control of his team and is now looking to make a playoff push. Over the past two seasons Jimmy Buckets has averaged 43 fantasy points per game against Philly and last year he had a massive 76 fantasy pt outing where he dumped in 53 baskets. The price tag is high but as Chicago’s top dog I think Jimmy can pay off his salary and then some.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 23.91 DK - 25.77
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 23.2 DK - 24.45
Taurean Prince & Thabo Sefolosha are both priced almost identically on both sites and they both have played well at their low priced tags. Prince in his L3 games since Millsap has been out has averaged 29 minutes, 10 FGA, and 19.27 fantasy pts. Prince’s most successful games have been hinged on getting blocks and he has had at least one block a game in four out of his last six games. Thabo on the other hand has averaged 25.8 minutes, 6.7 FGA, but averaged a slightly better 20.63 fantasy pts in the L3 games. Thabo does have the advantage of starting over Prince, but both guys by no means are offensively gifted players so really it is a tossup on which guy will get the most peripheral stats.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 30.99 DK - 32.43
Man, Porter has been in a funk as of late averaging only 16 fantasy pts over the L2 games, but today he gets a cake matchup against the Brooklyn Nets. There is always a chance of a blowout against the Nets but in the L3 games they played Porter averaged 35 minutes, 11 FGA, and 30 fantasy pts per game. Porter’s price allows us to consider him for cash and his ceiling makes him a very nice GPP option in the 2nd highest total projected game of the night (224 pts). As the old saying goes, if you are playing like crap play the Nets to get your groove back. That’s how Stella did it right?
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.49 DK - 38.39
Andrew Wiggins was on fire for the month of February averaging almost 40 fantasy points per game but has fallen back down to earth for the month of March only averaging 27 fantasy points per game. The good news is that Wiggins is averaging a wicked high 37 minutes and 18.4 FGA per game over the L2 weeks. Minnesota gets to face the pathetic Lakers who got stomped by the Wolves at the beginning of the year by 26 points. Wiggins had a huge hand in the large win by tossing in 47 buckets and 56 fantasy points in 41 minutes played. If real estate is all about location, NBA DFS tonight is all about matchups and Wiggins has an elite one which he should dominate in hopefully making him a great play in all formats.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 29.19 DK - 31.19
Ghost face killer in his first start since Paul Millsap went down was great with 34 fantasy points for 7.6X, but sadly he followed up with two straight games of 4X value. I like Ilyasova to bounce back candidate against MIL since he probably will get the start and I don’t think he will shoot 25% from the floor again like he did against WAS. In his last three starts he has averaged 27 minutes and 10 FGA and I think tonight is no different. I believe due to the recency bias Ilyasova will go overlooked in a lot of contests which makes him a nice GPP option.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 40.99 DK - 43.39
Draymond Green has only averaged 27 minutes and 28 fantasy pts in his last four games. A lot of this is due with the fact that the GSW blew out their opponents and Draymond simple was not needed. I think the casual game log watchers will see this and fade Green which might be a mistake since he is one of the few big men that has triple double potential any given night. Green doesn’t have to face DeMarcus Cousins anymore and as long as the Kings can keep the game close (17.5 pt spread) and Green gets 30+ minutes, a classic line of 11 pts, 8 reb, 7 ast, 2 stl, and 1 blk should be in his cards. With the spread being so high I think I will reserve Green for GPP only.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.27 DK - 26.51
Nikola! After two straight duds Nikola came back and played 38 minutes against DET and poured in 28 buckets for 44 fantasy pts in his third straight start. Now I don’t think Nikola gets 38 minutes (Felicio might be back) and shoots 80% from the floor again but if Nikola gets the start I think he can get 27+ minutes and defiantly make value. Nikola has made 6X+ value in four out of his last six games. In the games he did not smash he failed to reach double digit FGA with 9 and 7 attempts while his 6X+ performances he averaged 14 FGA. In order for Nikola to succeed the Bulls need to let him shoot from every place on the court.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 38.35 DK - 40.4
D12 gets a nice matchup against the Bucks who don’t farewell against opposing centers. While Howard isn’t the elite center he once was, he still is stronger and more skilled than Thon Maker on the opposing end and in this spot Howard could dominate without Paul Millsap. Without Millsap, Howard has averaged 34 minutes, 10 FGA, and 37 fantasy pts in his last three games as opposed to his season’s averages of 29.8 minutes, 8 FGA, and 32.75 fantasy pts per game. Over the past two seasons D12 has averaged 35 fantasy pts against the Bucks and I think he can do that and more tonight. I have Howard in all formats.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 23.55 DK - 24.38
Ivica Zubac is a much better Fanduel play at $4,300, which seems low for a guy that has averaged 25 FD pts over his last 6 starts. In the six starts Zubac has hit value five out his six games. While Karl-Anthony Towns is a phenomenal talent by no means is he a pinnacle of defense. His minutes have bounced around a bit from anywhere from 19-30 minutes so it’s hard to call Zubac 100% safe. As long as Zubac’s price stays this low I love his ability to payoff his salary and hit 30+ fantasy pts.
Strongly consider Demarcus Cousins coming off a big game.
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View Comments
Nice article Mr. Rasero. Hope they're paying u well.
Congrats Joe, looks like you got a column!! I noticed the writing was different and happened to see it was you.
Nice write up today. Picks are solid. Best write up I've seen in a while from this site
Hey Joe, nice too see you got your own article on DFSR. Congrats!
Brilliant Joesph, absolutely brilliant!!!
Well done Joe...Well deserved...
Good write up Joe. Any insight into value picks for tonight? Thanks.
I got 30 picks...
Kidding aside, if Wall can't go due to headaches Bradley Beal will see a nice bump but his $8K salary limits him to GPPs mostly. Porter and Morris see decent bumps but the guy I would almost lock in is Brandon Jennings at $4,200 FD.
Defiantly monitor the PHO injury news since if they might only run w/ only 8 guys again you could see starters hit 40+ minutes. I know I will get flack for this but Barbosa and Dudley could see large minutes if the PHO roster is thin. Williams is a great bounce back tournament play as long as he doesn't three fouls in 4 minutes again.
If Okafor for the 76ers sits, Holmes is another great bounce back guy I like, just fouls really hurt him
and I love Matt Barnes. I don't really by into revenge narratives but this dude hates SAC and w/ huge blowout potential I think he can get some nice run
oh another paw grabber I like is Marquese Chriss
This is an awesome right up. Thank you Joe! Great stuff right here!
Sounds good.. I thought it was a typo the first time but I've seen it multiple times now. When u say defiantly you mean definitely. Otherwise, good job