Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol (33) gestures during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Brooklyn Nets Saturday, Oct. 31, 2015, in Memphis, Tenn. The Grizzlies defeated the Nets 101-91. (AP Photo/Brandon Dill)
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38.96 DK - 41
Ulis has been locked into 40 minutes over the last 4 and it's simply something we can't ignore. Even in a blowout, Ulis played 42 minutes and shot the ball plenty. While the price has definitely risen, you can play him in this match-up. Jeremy Lin and Spencer Dinwiddie are some of the absolute worst defenders in the league on the perimeter. Ulis will be able to use his speed and agility to get past the likes of Brook Lopez and Trevor Booker on screens. This game between the Suns and Nets has the highest over/under by far at 223, a full 17 points than the 2nd higher game. The point guards benefit most in fast-paced games and Ulis should definitely have a great game. Ulis did have an off night against Goran Dragic, but you can't really blame him. The Suns were getting blown out and he was the only starter left on the floor. This should be a far more competitive game and we should see Ulis approach 40 like we have come to expect.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 37.49 DK - 40
Dragic and the Heat are coming off an astounding victory against the Suns where the starters didn't have to be pushed in the 4th quarter. Dragic ended up playing 24 minutes, which means he should have no reigns for at least a game or two. This match-up with the Raptors is a great one, as CoJo is a much worse defender than Lowry. Allowing nearly 52 fantasy points per game to point guards over the last 10, Joseph has struggled. He is not used to playing this many minutes and could be compensating on defense for spent energy. Dragic is the leader of this Heat team and he's been pretty consistent as of late. While the upside might not be there for 60 or 70 fantasy points, nobody offers that outside of Lillard. Dragic does give you a 35 fantasy point floor that locks you into a good spot in cash games. Dragic makes a lot of sense on a slate with so much value and not enough expensive options.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 30.83 DK - 33.02
Jeremy Lin hit his quota of getting injured twice this month, so he should be good to go for at least a couple more days. I don't rally think the Nets care about Lin as he certainly isn't part of the future plans. That's not to say he's bad, as he actually is a very good scorer. he's just atrocious on defense and you're not winning anything with Jeremy Lin at PG. As a result, I don't think they monitor his minutes too harshly. He is listed as probable to play and I don't think they force him back unless he's close to full health. Tyler Ulis is actually a better defender than most, but is still way undersized and lacks the NBA experience needed to deal with the savviness of a Lin/BroLo pick n roll. Make sure to keep an eye out for late news on Lon, as it is certainly possible he will be on a minutes limit. As long as he's playing with no holds barred, I will have plenty of exposure in all formats.
Derrick Rose was originally a write-up here. He left the game with a brace and a limp, so I doubt he plays. Ron Baker could be an interesting play, but I don't see the need on this slate. Damian Lillard could also get a bump if Ron Baker is covering him at home.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.2 DK - 39.94
There could have been a Trail Blazer at every position, but there were just too many good options at point guard. Shooting guard is a different story. With only 4 or 5 somewhat trustworthy guys, the ownership will be pretty concentrated. McCollum will be around 35% owned, which is still a bit too low for my book. McCollum has been extremely efficient lately, topping 30 on a nightly basis and hitting 45 every so often. You know he will be just fine in this match-up and the price is very fair. This slate has plenty of value and I see no reason to pay down for someone you are not extremely confident in. McCollum is the 2nd most expensive option at SG, sandwiched between DeRozan and Booker. That could drive his ownership down a bit in tournaments, where McCollum is a stellar option as well. Courtney lee is a pretty good on-ball defender but struggles mightily with off-ball and on-ball screens. McCollum and Nurkic should be able to work together and get open. McCollum has done a great job recently of spreading the ball around and taking some point guard minutes when Lillard is one the bench. That should pay off against a Knicks team that has sported the league's worst defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. McCollum is a great option in both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.18 DK - 34.58
Devin Booker is definitely one of the harder NBA players to figure out. He can go for 40 fantasy points in 10 straight games and absolutely nobody will blink. He can also go for 20 in 10 straight and disappoint daily. He has been a bit inconsistent lately, though the shot hasn't been completely off. The Nets give up the most open 3's in the league and also give up nearly 53 FP per game to SG's. Caris LeVert will eventually be a good defender but is unpolished and a bit too slow to stay with Booker. Booker has been seeing huge minutes and should continue to as long as the game stays relatively close. Without Eric Bledsoe, Booker has seen a slight uptick in usage. I think that number continues to go up and I definitely expect a few monster games before the season is over. When Booker gets hot, he can drop 40 real-life points with Melo-esqe ease. The Nets won't have anyone to stop him 1 on 1, which will just ignite the flame. The Suns are only favored by 4, so Vegas expects it to be high-scoring and competitive. If that's the case, you will want exposure to Booker. He can easily eclipse 50 fantasy points and win you a tournament.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 23.86 DK - 26.07
Seth Curry is officially questionable to play tonight, so Wes Matthews could be a super great play if he misses. If Curry misses, Matthews should see 36 minutes and shoot a ton. Even if Curry plays, Matthews is a good option at SG. Matthews has been over 20 fantasy points in 2 straight and finally saw his full allotment of minutes last game. The Clippers are decent against SG's, allowing nearly 49 FP per game. Redick does cover the 3 point line well but lacks any type of presence inside. Matthews does have a decent post game for a guard and he shot 3 shots out of it last game. Matthews definitely doesn't have anywhere near the same upside as a Booker or McCollum but he isn't priced like he does. He is under $5k on both sites and makes for a great value play, especially if Curry is out. This game between the Mavs and Clips may not be too high scoring, though it will be close and the FP should be concentrated on the Mavs side.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 30.25 DK - 31.95
We will stay right with the Mavs and take a look at Harrison Barnes. While it may not seem like it, Barnes is only $1100 more expensive than Wes Matthews. I'm willing to take Barnes at this price any day of the week, especially against a Clippers team that struggles most against small forwards. Without any real small forward, the Clippers will toss a number of different defenders at Barnes. He should be able to toss around the likes of Mbah a Moute and Jamal Crawford, who are both easy match-ups for Barnes. With that being said, Barnes should be very highly owned. Small forward is a pretty weak and I expect plenty of people to flock towards a cheap and consistent Harrison Barnes. I'm willing to make sure I'm over the field and get 100% exposure, as I don't really see him flopping at under $6k. The Mavericks are 4 games out of 8th and even though it doesn't really matter, they will be pushing starters out there for plenty of minutes.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 21.58 DK - 22.79
I tend to pay down at positions I lack confidence in, which is undoubtedly small forward on this slate. I have a lot of excitement and confidence in guys at other positions, so I would rather go for the cheap options here and pay for the guys I think will have a huge game. Harkless has been very inconsistent lately, scoring in single digits on multiple occasions. With that being said, I think he's a little bit safer than that tonight. He will be covering Carmelo Anthony and should see at least 30 minutes. Harkless has shown his ability to hit 30 fantasy points on a consistent basis, so we're really just waiting for him to regain his footing. Once his shot starts falling, you will see this price rise. The Knicks are a fantastic match-up for Harkless as they allow a ton of open 3's, especially to teams that spread the floor so well. You can expect 0 out of Harkless with the upside for much more. I do like Harkless more in cash games than tournaments on this slate.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 18.83 DK - 20.37
The Grizzlies have been giving Vince Carter big minutes recently, for whatever reason. While there really isn't too much to say here, it's just a typical case of minutes = money. With that being said, not all minutes are created equally. Carter does have a low floor and I will avoid him in cash games because of that. My exposure will come in tournaments, where I will hope this game stays close and Carter is needed to stretch the floor. He is close to minimum priced on both sites and only needs about 20 to hit value. The Spurs are obviously a slow and good defense, but they do lack the 3 point coverage they have showed in previous years. Carter can get hot from the corner and hit 30 fantasy points. While Carter isn't my favorite value play on the board, he's definitely one to consider.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.64 DK - 34.39
Porzingis and the Knicks got beat by the Jazz last night, though Porzingis only played 31 minutes. That should allow him to play a full complement of minutes tonight against a Blazers team that is very weak on the interior. Nurkic is a big body at center, but Porzingis should be able to use his length to get at least 10 boards. The open shots will be no problem, as guys like Noah Vonleh and Jusuf Nurkic won't be able to follow Porzingis to the perimeter. He will have as many open 3's as he can find and it will just be a matter of whether he is hitting them or not. Porzingis has actually been low-key consistent since returning from injury, staying between 35-45 in all but one game he saw big minutes in. Porzingis is also a bit under-priced for the player he is. The Knicks look to him late for offense and will do that especially tonight where it will be quite evident here the mismatch is. While a 7 foot 2 power forward is always a match-up problem, it's definitely magnified tonight.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 31.42 DK - 33.13
Johnson played for the Raptors last year and provided a spark off the bench. This year, he's doing so for the Miami Heat. He will face off against his former team tonight in what is expected to be a very good game. With a -4.5 line, Vegas does expect this to stay close. Johnson is a big match-up problem for the Raptors and he showed that 2 weeks ago when they played, scoring 30 fantasy points in 28 minutes. He should see closer to 34 tonight and see a lot of time against some weak defenders. The Heat have Johnson on the bench, so he can come in with Dragic on the bench and run some point forward. Dion Waiters is also expected to miss this one, which gives Johnson a +3.5% usage bump when on the floor. With Serge Ibaka serving his suspension tonight, the Raptors will be left with PatPat at the 4. Johnson is far too physical and fast for Patterson to stay with, which should result in some transition buckets and early foul trouble. I will have plenty of exposure to Johnson in my cash games, as well as a few shares in tournaments.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 19.89 DK - 21.81
Noah Vonleh was a very high draft pick and it was only a matter of time until the Blazers started force feeding him the minutes. Playing around 28 lately, Vonleh has done a good job on both sides of the ball. Scoring in double digits 3 of the last 4 and staying around 7-9 rebounds, Vonleh is showing the upside h has as an athletic big. He fits well with Nurkic, as Vonleh can cut towards the baseline while Nurkic is working the top of the key with Lillard and McCollum. he is also a transition menace, outrunning opposing bigs on nearly every possession. He is extremely cheap and sits at a position with some uncertainty down low. Vonleh should be pretty low-owned as well, as many will go with the more expensive options or Marquese Chriss. I will go with Vonleh and hope he sees close to 30 minutes again. With a floor around 18 and a ceiling over 30, I see no reason to avoid Vonleh in any format. Stotts and the Blazers obviously want to get him involved in a big way.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.17 DK - 37.12
This guy is pretty awesome. As someone who was fully aware of his capabilities in Denver, it was always frustrating to see him getting consistently screwed over by the coaching staff. Th Blazers have handed him the reigns at center and he has certainly impressed. He has been a huge upgrade over Plumlee at literally every aspect of the game, especially defense. Nurkic has been a big help for this team who was struggling to guard the rim. He will be needed out there with guys like Porzingis ready to put it back at any time. The Knicks are going to have a ton of trouble with Nurkic, who is about 200x stronger than anyone on the Knicks roster. That might not be an exaggeration either. Hernangomez may be able to get in his way a little bit, but expect Nurkic to bulldoze him down low and be on his way to another huge game. Nurkic has been one of the more consistent big men in the league over the last month or so and I will continue riding the train. The Nicks are an elite match-up for Nurkic and he will almost certainly take advantage. He will be my highest owned center in cash games and tournaments, depending on the status of Alan Williams.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.5 DK - 31.19
Alan Williams wasn't with the team against the Heat, though nobody seemed to notice until well after tip-off. While I'm not sure how that's possible, NBA injury reporting is a completely different subject. If Williams happens to miss another game, Alex Len is nearly a must. He picked up 36 minutes against the heat and turned it into a double-double and 30 fantasy points. He gets an elite match-up with Brook Lopez and the Nets, who can't guard anyone down low. Len is a great rebounder and should be able to score as well. The Suns run a ton of pick n rolls and Ulis has done a great job getting his big men the ball. Like I said, Brook Lopez is completely uninterested in playing defense. If Williams does play, I would be very hesitant to play Len. We still don't know how the minutes will be allocated once he returns. With that being said, Len could still be an interesting tourney play if Williams is active.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 36.25 DK - 37.75
Gasol doesn't have the same shine as a guy like Nurkic or Len, but he's just as great in a different way. When Gasol takes the floor, you know he's going to produce. With 30+ fantasy points in every game and a ton with 45+, he has a fantastic scoring range. The Spurs are a known defensive stalwart, but they are also known to struggle against good centers. Gasol is one of the best in the league and I see Gasol and Aldridge struggling. Gasol is a far better rebounder than both and will be just fine in terms of scoring. The offense runs through Gasol late in the game and I expect this one to stay close. it may not be too high-scoring, but the line is small and both teams want to win. Gasol is a fantastic cash game play and definitely has the upside for tournaments. With that being said, Len and Nurkic are still preferred.
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View Comments
Joe you here today?
Stallworth played offense, you mean stalwart.
Sure whatever?!?!?!?
Why is everyone so obsessed with Joe? Just curious, but his Kyrie/Lebron stack busted badly. Anyways, just wondering why people are so obsessed with his picks.
The Kyrie + LeBron was mentioned as a GPP stack. Obviously there is a risk in playing anyone due to variance but when two guys in theory could put up a combined 100+ points it should be looked at as an option.
Now, by no means should my picks be followed 100% since a lot of the time they are linked to "What if scenarios" or are GPP/Contrarian plays. Like DFSR has mentioned in the past, at this time of the year especially in 50/50 & head to heads lineups are so similar it's like playing 6 vs 6 sometimes. So taking a risk and speculating for those 1-2 GPP plays goes a long way, but they are far from safe.
Bets of luck though
Thanks Joe. I was just curious what basis you are making your picks on. You explained further down, so it makes more sense. Appreciate the insight.
Good luck to you as well.
My thoughts exactly. It's not hard to scan rotowire and find value. Ppl are just lazy
Because between DFSR, Joe and your own research, you should be doing well ;)
I am doing real well. I was more so just curious why people were so eager to get his feedback when it was far from accurate last night. I feel as if doing your own research pans out much better. Thanks DFSR for the tips.
No one is going to hit on 100% of their picks and if they did they wouldn't be here... but for the most part DFSR and their opt does well and last night a good portion of my suggestions hit.
Nikola Mirotic 44 FD Pts 10X
Paul Zipser 25.8 FD Pts 7.3X
Rudy Gobert 60.10 FD Pts 6.8X
Kelly Olynyk 26.6 FD Pts 6.6X
Buddy Hield 29.8 FD Pts 6.4X
Thabo Sefolosha 22.8 FD Pts 6X
Ish Smith 24.7 FD Pts 5.7X
Kristaps Porzingis 36.4 FD Pts 5.6X
Skal Labissiere 23.1 FD Pts 5.5X
Al Horford 36.6 FD Pts 5.4X
Nik Stauskas 20.5 FD Pts 5.4X
Bobby Portis 21.2 FD Pts 5.3X
My picks are merely suggestions and they are a combination of value, contrarian, cash, and GPP. Some of them will be speculative and others deal with "what if scenarios".
Chasson Randle $3,500 & Ron Baker $3,700. If Rose misses tonight's game due to a foot injury than Randle and Baker both will be thrown into the PG spot. Randle is probably a deep dart GPP play and Baker a tad bit safer but risky none the less since Randle has never played above 15 minutes in a game and Baker has never gone above 27. Also, both aren't true PGs, but on a short slate at min/near min salary in a game that has the 2nd highest total of the night I would consider these guys if Rose sits in a deep GPP. Baker preferred if he starts.
Mike Conley $7,600 faces SA tonight and the 199 projected total is very generous. Conley has been playing well as of late averaging 39 FD pts in his L5. His last game he did dud for 25 pts but I did mention in the chat that Jru Holiday is a sneaky good defender and his game logs against NOR have not been great. Tonight presumably he gets Tony Parker who I am not scared of at all plus Conley against SAS has averaged 33 FD pts over the past two seasons. As long as MEM keeps it close I like Conley for cash.
Tyler Johnson $6,300. The Dragon has disappointed us in the last two games but tonight he is in a nice spot against TOR, but if you want to be contrarian and spend less TJ should be considered. In his L6 he has averaged 25 FD pts per game and in this time span he has basically had three 30+ FD pt games. In the two games against TOR this year he has put up 32.8 and 23.1 FD pts.
JJ Barea $4,100 if Seth Curry sits with a shoulder injury, which is never a good sign for a shooter, I like Barea in a GPP. His minutes have not been stable as of late but again if Curry sits I can see him playing 25 or so minutes and possibly lighting it up. Since coming back from injury the two games he played 20+ minutes he went 6X and 8X. Minutes equal money.
Wesley Matthews $4,500 will be a big benefactor if Curry sits and if this is the case I can see Matthews in theory playing 34 minutes and taking double digit FGA. Really it comes down to Curry sitting since Matthews has not been stellar as of late w/ Curry. GPP play
Allen Crabbe $4,300 gets the NYK in the 2nd highest total of the night at 217 protected pts. Remember minutes equal money and while Crabbe is not the most consistent guy he has been averaging 30 minutes per game over the L2 weeks. Additionally in the L3 games he has taken 11, 9, and 10 FGA. If Crabbe keeps getting minutes and near double digit FGA I like him in a pretty stinky pool of SGs as a GPP play.
Justin Holiday $4,400. Maybe no Rose and if you are scoffing at the abilities of Randle and Baker at PG then Justin Holiday should see some extended run with 20+ minutes. I like Baker more at $3,700 due to his price and I am speculating he will start over Holiday, but the Knicks have given Holiday more run in the past plus in the two times Holiday started this year he averaged 25 FD pts per game.
TJ Warren $6,600 pretty steep for Warren but if the Suns only run 9 deep tonight I like Warren for a GPP and then some. L5 games he has averaged 13.8 FGA and 38 minutes per game. In the highest total of the night (224) and w/ Brooklyn w/ a +4 spread I think Warren will see enough court time and looks to pay off his price tag.
Lance Thomas $4,100 if he starts I think is a decent GPP play. In the 9 starts since the beginning of February he has averaged 21.5 FD pts per game. As a starter for the year he has seen about 29 minutes per game. Vonleh or any of the POR big men shouldn't be a problem for Thomas who will mainly play on the perimeter.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,300 gets PHO for the battle of the ping pong balls. Both RHJ and Marquese Chriss are nice PF GPP plays since they can put up 30+ pts up, but they also can have three fouls in the 1st quarter and not break 20 fantasy pts too. If RHJ doesn't get into hand to hand combat with Chriss I think he can eat. In the one outing against PHO this year he put up 42 FD pts.
PJ Tucker $3,800. With no Ibaka tonight I would think Tucker sees minutes in the 30s. In Tucker's L3 has averaged 28.5 minutes. Tucker loves using all his fouls so he could easily be riding a lot of pine if he gets handsy, but again minutes equal money folks.
High priced SF I like Kawhi Leonard since sooner or later I think he is going to break out of his three game skid and if Rose is out a $6,500 Carmelo Anthony might be too low of a price not to play at least in a GPP.
PFs DFSR really has covered well. I do like Marquese Chriss as mentioned before in a GPP and LaMarcus Aldridge $7,100 as more cash.
Center Again DFSR has covered well but Pau Gasol against his old team and brotherI think is interesting since he has played well against MEM last year. His current roll on SAS limits his value since he plays only 25 minutes per game but at $5,800 he is a decent GPP if he can get going on offense and get at least double digit FGA.
For you revenge addicts DeAndre Jordan $7,700 at DAL, the team he bailed on during free agency.
Also DeMar DeRozan should be considered since he should see a massive usage rating without Lowry and no Ibaka tonight
Appreciate everyone's insight and feedback. Who are you feeling as "must plays" tonight Austyn and Joe?
No one strikes me as a must play but for a GPP DDR has had a massive usage (60%) in a small sample size when Lowry and Ibaka are not present. A lot of the plays will depend on PHO and NYK Injuries.
Also reading more into Melo I would probably fade since they will restrict his minutes for the rest of the year plus the Knicks are on a B2B, so it's possible* ALL speculation that he MIGHT sit. If he does Mindaugas Kuzminskas at $3,500 would probably get the start. In the three starts this year Mindaugas Kuzminskas has averaged 20 FD pts.
In a GPP I could see myself stacking 3-4 PHO guys. Booker does worry me a tad since he has been so off and I think an ankle injury to a jump shooter is terrible, but he gets Brooklyn and as long as he keeps getting 20 FGA and the minutes he is worth a look.
I agree with you Joe. Booker has been ice cold lately. Do you think Ulis is must? If Al Wil sits, then I think Len will go off.