Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
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Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 65.73 DK - 69.84
Yep, another day where we have to weigh whether or not Westbrook is worth it. He comes in at $13k+ on both sites, which is as high as he's been over the season. Westbrook had one of hs worst games of the season against the Warriors, finishing with 34 fantasy points in only 27 minutes. The Warriors absolutely blew them away and the Warriors had no chance entering the 2nd half. He also suffered a blister, though Billy Donovan has already said there is no risking of him missing this game. Looking past that 1 fluke of a game, Westbrook has 60+ in 10 of the last 14 and 70+ in 2 of the last 8. The 76'ers are a fantastic match-up for Westbrook, who is far stronger and faster than T.J. McConnell and Sergio Rodriguez. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot may get a few minutes on Westbrook as well and will struggle quite a bit. This Thunder team hasn't been playing well and I certainly expect the game to stay close. Westbrook is definitely a guy you can play in all formats, though there is definitely merit to fading him in both.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 47.53 DK - 50.45
John Wall is definitely expensive, though nowhere near the same level as Russell Westbrook. He's $3k cheaper on both sites and it will definitely be hard to pay the extra $3k with Wall sitting here. Dennis Schroder is one of the absolute worst defenders in the league and has allowed nearly 54 FP per game to opposing PG's. Wall is going to be way too fast and shifty for Schroder, who has trouble moving laterally around on-ball screens. Gortat is one of the best screeners in the game and should be able to obliterate Schroder on a consistent basis. Wall will then switch onto the likes of Dwight Howard and Ersan Ilyasova, who obviously have no chance. Wall is going to have a very solid game tonight and I absolutely love him in cash games. Westbrook does have a lot more upside and it is a very close call. If enough value arises on the day, I may be willing to play both.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 39.77 DK - 42.26
Kemba was absolutely atrocious in the 1st half against the Hawks, shooting just 3 times and scoring 8 fantasy points. He realized who he was and went for a very solid 2nd half, finding a way to not single-handedly destroy my lineups. Walker has been playing well outside of the last 3, finishing with 40+ in 7 of the last 8. This match-up with the Magic is pretty great one as they give up nearly 5 FP per minute to opposing PG's. Elfrid Payton is a fine defender, though a tad undersized. he also loses a lot of match-ups in transition, as guys like Walker are just a little too quick for him. The Hornets are extremely reliant on Walker for production and I certainly see him coming through tonight. Walker is also a big cutter, so the fact that the Magic have no shot blockers is great. Biyombo can come off the bench, but then the Magic have no offense. Either way, I think Walker hits value and definitely has upside for tourneys.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32.14 DK - 33.87
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 31.76 DK - 33.71
Danilo Gallinari is currently doubtful and Wilson Chandler is questionable. If either misses, both Harris and Barton get usage and minutes bumps. If both Gallo and Chandler miss, these guys are fantastic options. Harris has been extremely consistent lately, topping 30 fantasy points in 6 of the last 7. He is a very good player and will consistently hit value with the minutes. Will Barton is a little more variant, as he is a bit more reliant on real-life scoring. With that being said, the Nuggets will need scoring against the Cavs. Both of these guys have a ton of appeal in all formats and I will definitely have a ton. Harris will likely be in 100% of my lineups and Barton will be in the bulk of my tournaments. Shooting guard is a pretty spread-out position and I expect the ownership to reflect that.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.47 DK - 30.71
Fournier and the magi have been pretty steady lately, finishing with a whole lot of average performances. Fournier has been consistent as of late and he usually is when healthy. Facing off with a Hornets team that has been average against SG's, I'm not worried. Nicolas Batum is a pretty good on-ball defender but switches onto the ball handler a lot, which will leave Fournier for Kemba and MKG. While one is a plus and one a minus, I'm willing to bet Fournier obliterates Kemba when given the opportunity. Neither of these teams love to play in transition or avoid it, so it should be a pretty loose affair. Fornier is my favorite Magic on the board and I like him in all formats. The ownership should be fair and the production should pay it off well. Fournier is still way too cheap on both sites, mostly due to him being somewhat underwhelming since returning from injury. You can expect Fournier to slowly return to the scoring beat he was last season.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 27.26 DK - 29.3
Kent Bazemore has been ruled out for the next week or so, which opens up a bunch of minutes. Tim Hardaway Jr. saw 33 minutes against the Hornets and even though he only scored 14 fantasy points, the fantasy points are promising. Hardaway is a very variant player and for that reason is a guy I only have in tournaments. he has a ridiculous amount of upside in this match-up, as the Wizards play extremely fast and can give it up on the perimeter to good shooters. Bradley Beal is a fine defender, but isn't anything to write home about. Hardaway will go way under-owned and makes a lot of sense in tourneys. His price has come back down and he doesn't need to go crazy to hit value. Hardaway has been over 50 fantasy points twice this season and they were in ver similar match-ups. While Hardaway is far from safe, he should see 12 shots and 30 minutes which will usually equate into at least 20 fantasy points.
Consider Avery Bradley. He will be needed on defense and should see Monta Ellis on offense.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 43.73 DK - 45.64
Jimmy Butler went nuts last night, scoring 64 fantasy points against the Raptors. While the back to back is definitely scary, I don't think Hoiberg has an option. The Bulls are trying to make the playoffs and they have absolutely no chance if Butler isn't on the floor. He is by far the best player on the team and will be needed for rebounding as well tonight with Robin Lopez expected to be suspended. Butler has played well against this Pistons team, causing a problem for the likes of KCP and Marcus Morris. Butler should see at least 36 minutes here and has a floor around 40. His ceiling is well over 60 and always has triple-double upside. Rondo and Butler have been playing well together and I expect it to continue. Butler is the top SG option in both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 21.63 DK - 22.89
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 21.39 DK - 23.17
Kent Bazemore and Paul Millsap have already been ruled out for this game, so you can lock the minutes in for both of these guys. Sefolosha is one of the more difficult players to roster, mostly due to his perception as a defensive specialist that just sits in the corner. However, he doesn't do that in this offense. He gets involved quite a bit more and has been better in terms of FP per minute. Sefolosha will certainly be needed in this match-up as I could definitely see them putting him on Beal and switching Hardaway to Porter. As for Prince, he has a lot more upside. Sefolosha is still a safer, cash game option, while Prince is the guy that can take you to the promised land. The Wizards are an extremely fast-paced match-up and Prince should have the ball in his hands plenty. Seeing over 30 minutes recently, I'm willing to have some healthy exposure to Prince, as long as he isn't as popular as he was last game.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 28.92 DK - 30.22
The Sixers are pretty good at finding big men. With Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, Dario Saric, Richaun Holmes, and Ersan Ilyasova all running through the 76'ers this season, you can be sure the production will be there from Holmes. Okafor is currently questionable to play and he will cause a big impact on Holmes. If Okafor plays, Holmes will likely get around 28 minutes and hit value. If Okafor is out again, Holmes should see around 38 minutes and destroy value. He was forced to play 42 minutes against the Magic and exploded for 50 fantasy points. Holmes has been an amazing FP per minute producer when on the floor and the minutes are a guarantee at this point. Holmes is a great way to goin both cash games and tournaments.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.81 DK - 31.99Holmes become locks if Okafor gets ruled out.
With Millsap ruled out, Ilyasova is a lock for 28 minutes. While we definitely expected more last game, the Hawks elected to play small for much of the 2nd half. He matches up much better with Markieff Morris, who's a similar offensive player. While Ilyasova doesn't control the ball or run the floor, he does see an uptick in production with an uptick in pace. He relies on 3-point shooting for upside, which is a big reason we want him in fast games. He does a great job finding the 3-ball in transition and should be able to do that extremely well against the Wizards, who are a pretty bad defense in general once they get running. A lot of people will likely be off of Ilyasova, which is a mistake. He is still going to produce with Millsap out and I'm willing to have exposure in both cash and tournaments.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 21.37 DK - 22.42
Gallinari is doubtful and Chandler is questionable. Chandler plays more power forward, so his status is a bit more important for Hernangomez. Hernangomez is a guy who is guaranteed to produce when on the court. The problem is you never really know how many minutes he will play. If Chandler and Gallinari are both out, you can lock in at least 28. He matches up well with Kevin Love and should be able to score just fine. If Chandler does play, I will be a bit more hesitant. He has the floor to play 8 minutes and it wouldn't be crazy. With that being said, he could still see 28 minutes and destroy value. For that reason, I will make sure to have tournament exposure, even if Chandler does return. If neither Chandler or Gallinari play, make sure to plug in Hernangomez.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.8 DK - 30.2
The Thunder ended up getting the starters rest against the Warriors in what turned into a blowout very quickly. Adams will be able see a full load of minutes tonight in a terrific match-up against the 76'ers. With Jahlil Okafor questionable, Adams will either see Okafor or Holmes down low. They are both below average defenders that don't have much of an interior presence. Adams has been seeing over 34 minutes on a consistent basis and at his price, is a near lock for value. Sitting under $5k on both FanDuel and DraftKings, Adams only needs about 25-30 to make you happy. He also has plenty of upside here if the game stays close, topping 40 points on multiple occasions this season. You can target Adams in both cash games and tournaments. While he may not have the same upside as these next two guys, he gives you confidence at a cheap price and lets you pay up elsewhere.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 38.13 DK - 39.9
Drummond has actually been somewhat consistent as of late, which is very weird to say. He hasn't shown the classic 60 fantasy point game, but also hasn;t showed us the 15 in a good match-up. He's been sitting right around 38-45 fantasy points, which is fine in cash games, though you would like a little bit more. The Bulls are likely to be without Robin Lopez tonight. Christiano Felicio also took a nasty hit to the hip and his status is in question. Drummond will be the only big body down low with any skill and should be able to absolutely dominate. He has the ability to hit 20 rebounds without much effort and the points will follow organically. Drummond is a guy I will have exposure to in both cash games and tournaments. he has a floor around 35 and a ceiling over 65.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 35.96 DK - 37.79
I know, a lot of Atlanta Hawks. They are without Millsap and Bazemore and face off with one of the fastest teams in the NBA. Howard may benefit just as much as anyone from Millsap being out, as he saw nearly 40% more looks down low in the last 2. Marcin Gortat is definitely a good defender, but it won't really matter if hers behind Howard. Even in the halfcourt set, Howard should be able to get it done against the Wiz. Howard has been extremely consistent lately and I think it's the real deal. the Hawks have done a great job of suppressing his ego and forcing him to be a team player. With the uptick in usage and shots, I'm willing to give Howard a whirl in all formats, though there might not bee too much space left.
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View Comments
We all know it takes at least 5X value to cash. Of todays top 20 players, 6 have not hit value once in their last 5 games (4 of the top 5), 5 have hit value once in their last 5 and six only hit 5X twice. Butler, Vucevic and Saric were the only players to hit value more than 50%. As soon as a player has one good game their price jumps $6-700. The player should not be priced on potential only performance. Somebody is going to win these GPP's - why doesn't fanduel make these salaries more accurate?
FanDuel is already pretty loose in terms of scoring, so I would personally hate to see any of the top 20 players come down too far in price. It's a pretty tough job and I can see where some complaints come from. All in all, it's MUCH better than in years past.
JOE WHERE ARE YOU BABY!?
Good job with suggestions guys especially you Austyn. I must admit tho since Joe R has been posting his value picks those combined with the studs. I have been winning every day big or small. Thanks Joe!!!!
Just wondering why the "STUD" George Hill wasn't recommended again today?? Will he be even worse than only 2X value?
Where ya at Joe???
we miss you Joe...:)
joe? joe are you ok? we need you, joe. i hope you're not dead, joe. joe, please talk to us. JOE!
"Optimal" lineup came in 858th place out of 914 last night. I've had the lineup optimizer for a month now and used it 5 times.. it's 0/5 for cashing and 3 of them have been 3 of the worst scores I've ever had in 2+years of dfs basketball. I like this site for it's suggestions articles but I'll be cancelling my optimizer subscription asap
5 times over a 30 day span? you picked the wrong 5 nights.
Welcome back. I followed the chat somewhat last night and it looked like a bunch of guys pooped their big boy pants. Remember DFS is a grind... Only if I stacked the TOR CHI game!
Kyrie Irving $9,000. Price is very high which makes him a nice GPP option. In the highest projected total of the night I love stacking Kyrie and Lebron in a GPP since both have 50+ pt upside. Also stacking this game in general is recommended. In a semi pace up game Kyrie could go ham for 50-60 pt upside.
Rajon Rondo $5,400 I wrote up yesterday as a GPP play since his previous two games he only saw a combined 11 FGA, so a course Rondo came back against TOR and got 16 FGA, 40 minutes, and three 3s. I don't think he gets that kind of output tonight but against DET in the past two seasons he has averaged 37 FD pts per games. I don't mind gambling on Rondo for B2B good games.
Jamal Murray $4,000. His price is down $400 and I like targeting Murray even though he didn't do great against HOU last game, but with Gallinari out and Chandler questionable Murray might get more run. He faces CLE PGs which isn't difficult at all plus over the past week he has had a 26% usage rating and averaged 11.7 FGA per game. Also consider Malcolm Brogdon $5,000 as a deeper GPP play. On the flip side for cash I do like
Jameer Nelson $5,200. While I wish DEN would bring Nelson to the farm where all old dogs go to die a match up against Kyrie in a pace up game is almost too good to pass up. Nelson's last game against CLE he scored 40 FD pts. Stack this game! While I prefer Murray as a player Nelson will start and get 30+ minutes making him a safe bet.
Elfrid Payton $7,100 at this price he is more cash oriented for me, yet over the L2 weeks he has averaged 38.6 FD pts. Oddly in the three games Payton faced CHA this year ORL got blown out by 40, 19, and 21 pts. CHA apparently has ORL's number so the Magic will need to keep it close (Vegas has 5 pt spread) in order to make value.
Sergio Rodriguez $3,600 I recommended him yesterday and the Magician simply pooped his big boy pants missing all 8 of his FGA. I like Segio again as a GPP for the reason that Philly could get blown out allowing Segio to increased minutes. Even if the game stays close I think Segio can make at least one FGA and hit value at near stone minimum.
Ish Smith $4,300. One of my favorite value plays of the night. One Reggie Jackson just doesn't look right after coming back from injury and as a starter Smith has been averaging 25 FD pts. Smith gets Rondo who is one of the easiest match ups not named IT3. Even if you ignore Smith's last game where he had 38 FD pts he has averaged 24.73 FD pts over the past two seasons against CHI. Nice cash play with GPP upside of 40 pts.
Nik Stauskas $3,800. A guy I hate to love. Over his L3 he has averaged 25 FD pts per game. Last game was a tad fluky since TLC got into foul trouble (tilting) and Nik got 39 minutes. Regardless I like the minutes, usage, and his floor tonight especially if Henderson sits tonight.
Buddy Hield $4,600 Stephen Curry lite has made 6.6X+ in three out of his last 6 games. In that span he has averaged 22 FD pts per game. If Afflalo and Evans sits I think Hield has way too much potential to not play in a GPP.
Jeremy Lamb $5,100 even with Batum back I still like Lamb. His $5k+ salary on FD is overpriced but I like him for a GPP play. Against ORL as a reserve over the past two seasons he has averaged 26.74 FD pts. Lamb will easily be overlooked making him a sneaky SG play.
Denzel Valentine $4,600. With last games dud and the jump to $4,600 from almost stone minimum I think many people will be off Denzel. Over the L2 weeks he has averaged 27 minutes and had a 17% usage rating. What really has hampered Valentine in the L2 weeks is his meager 36% shooting percentage. Simply Denzel needs to make his shots to make value, story of my life.
Rodney Hood $3,900. At his lowest price for the last two seasons Hood is a deep GPP play. Obviously injury has hampered Hood's output but the silver lining is that Hood scored 11 pts in only 15 minutes and have a massive 32% usage rating. If Hood ever sees 25-30+ minutes ever again 30+ fantasy pts isn't unthinkable. Listen Hood could bust and you will be slamming your laptop on the ground calling me WOAT, so just know this guy is a deep GPP play.
Taurean Prince $3,700 was a bit disappointing a couple days back. Many played him as their defacto punt play (w/ TLC). I think Prince was a trap since against POR and MEM he has a combined 7 blocks. None the less I think a lot of people will be tilting hard on Prince so at $3,700 in the third highest projected total of the night (215) I like Prince as a punt SF play just don't expect 3+ blocks tonight. If you are so tilted and just want more security, Thabo Sefolosha who should start at $3,800 might be better for you.
Robert Covington $7,400 price is sky high but Bob Cov takes a good 23% or so of the usage so and he has averaged 35 minutes over the L2 weeks. By no means is Bob Cov cash oriented but considering that this guy can put up 40-50 fantasy pts in a GPP stacking him, Saric, and Holmes is a decent strategy for GPP.
Jae Crowder $6,000 In his L3 has averaged 34 FD pts. Now in two out of those three games he faced Brooklyn and Philly but the third game he faced WAS and had 35 FD pts. Why I am excited about Crowder is the fact that in the past three games he has averaged 36 Minutes per game and in comparison for the season he has only averaged 21 minutes per game. Even with IT3 back last game Crowder took 12 FGA. I think w/ BOS in striing distance of CLE and teams zoning in on IT3 guys like Crowder will be called upon more, thus making him a nice play.
Paul Zipser $3,500 at the bare minimum 32 minutes in his L3. Yes last game against TOR went into OT and he did play 40 minutes also due to Felicio injury and Lopez ejection, but in his prior L2 he played 27+ minutes. Tonight Felicio might be out and Lopez is suspended for throwing bows like a hockey player I think Zipser will get a hearty 30+ minutes. Now Zipser just isn't good at basketball but with a possible short rotation I like him as a min salary punt tonight.
LeBron James $11,100 price still a little high for my tastes but he gets a nice match up in DEN tonight in a game that has the highest projected total. As I mentioned before with Irving I like stacking them as GPP play for their 50 pt upside. For the L2 seasons he has averaged 51 FD pts against DEN.
If Wilson Chandler plays consider him as a deep GPP play since he gets LeBron but also will see a nice bump due to the Rooster being out.
Richaun Holmes $6,100. Note to self, when Embiid and Okafor are out PLAY Holmes! As of late whether Holmes is starting or not he has been crushing. For the month of March he has been averaging 27
Nikola Mirotic $4,400 the L2 has been horrible, maybe as a reserve he was better suited since the three games prior to starting he averaged 32 FD pts per game. Still there is hope for Mirotic since even in his L2 he has had a 20%+ usage rating and tonight there might be no Felicio and Lopez has been suspended. If Mirotic can get back up to double digit FGA tonight I like him to bounce back as a nice GPP play.
Marvin Williams $6,700. I will admit I have also seen Williams as the guy who got drafted over CP3 and a guy that is only good for 20 fantasy pts game at a $5k salary, but MV have been smashing that stigma as of late. Well at least the fantasy aspect (CP3 still better). Even with Kaminsky back he has played 35 minutes per game and in his L2 averaged 32.5 FD pts. Really one of his best games of the season came against ORL for 45 FD pts so heck Williams even at a bloated $6.7k could be a nice cash/gpp play.
Skal Labissiere $4,200. Pretty much all the SAC big men are GPP plays but what I like about Skal is the fact that he is cheap. He is seeing more run getting three 20+ minute games out of the last 5, but even as a starter he has only 17.7 minutes per game so don't expect 25-30 minutes. If you like throwing darts at $4,200 you could do a whole lot worse.
Kristaps Porzingis $6,500 if Favors sits do you really expect the Joe's (Ingles & Johnson) to contain KP? Obviously KP's Charlie Horse wasn't bad since he played over 30 minutes last game. Utah pace is always a concern but with the game above 200 I think GPP just is too tall for the Joe's to handle.
Bobby Portis $4,000 with maybe no Felicio and defiantly no Lopez, Portis probably will draw the start. W/ this being said I don't love the match up whether he gets Harris or Drummond but 30 minutes might not be out of the question tonight. Remember money equals money folks. Tobias Harris $5,400 on the flip side I can see Harris smashing tonight if he gets Mirotic who plays as much defense as Rondo.
Willie Cauley-Stein $6,200, wow what a difference no Cousins makes. The price and production have defiantly risen. WCS has 40 fantasy pt upside and I like WCS against the Bucks. Still a GPP since he still tends to dud everyone now and then in the teens. L2 weeks he has been averaging 33 minutes and a 19% usage rating. Has scored double digit points seven out of the ten games played in March.
Mason Plumlee $6,100 besides last game against HOU Plumlee without Chandler and Gallo has been great. As a starter in the month of March he has averaged 33.94 FD pts. With Gallo doubtful and Chandler questionable I like Plumlee again if they both sit or even if Chandler only plays.
Al Horford $6,700 Boston smells blood in the water and are only two games back from CLE. Like Crowder, Horford has really picked up his game as of late averaging 41 FD pts in his L5 compared to 32 Fd pts average for the season. Tonight they get IND who and as long as they keep Horford engaged w/ double digit FGA I think he could have a nice night.
Georgios Papagiannis $3,600, the near min price Greek freak? Probably not but in his L2 he has averaged 26 FD pts. Again SAC big men all have GPP upside but with two straight games of 20+ minutes and double digit rebounding it's not unthinkable to think this guy can 6X. Plus no one will have him, well besides me....
Rudy Gobert $8,800 massive price for the French Prince of Utah but damn has he been good as of late averaging 47 FD pts over his L3. He gets the Knicks who are pretty terrible against opposing big men. This is where you have to pick recent production versus a hefty price tag.
Kelly Olynyk $4,000 while Brad Stevens is brillant I never understood why Kelly isn't played more, since he defiantly is their best big man not named Horford. A course his defense isn't top notch but good lord dude this guy can rip it. Kelly has been pretty solid as of late doing 5X+ in three out of his last five games and averaged 24 FD pts against IND this year. The sub 20 minutes disgust me but Kelly is defiantly a nice low priced GPP play.
* should be note for Portis I meant to say minutes equal money!
But yes money equals money too...
All Bulls big men GPP plays tonight at low low prices
Joe, all your work and efforts are greatly appreciated!! Thanks, plenty.