Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James holds the ball away from Boston Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas during the second quarter of a NBA basketball game in Boston Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2015. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)
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Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.26 DK - 33.26
When we're kicking off point guard with George Hill, the kind of tells you where things are headed doesn't it? Westy is playing early, and all of the big names are going head to head on the main slate. So here we are. George Hill isn't the splashiest name, but really, you could do worse. Hill is 4 games back from a toe injury now, and we at least know for sure that he's feeling fine enough that the minutes are there. After an 18 minute return versus the Thunder, he roared back with 37 minutes against the Clippers coming 2 boards shy of a double double with 19 points. He's struggled a little since then going for 31 minutes against both the Pistons and the Cavs, Cleveland holding him to a mere 9 points and 2 rebounds and assists. Tonight the Jazz head to Chi town and the good news is not only are the Bulls bad against opposing PGs, now that they've lost Wade they have to rely on the likes of Rajon Rondo and MCW in the back court. Hill should have a nice bounce back game here and makes for a cheap cash game play.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 31.6 DK - 33.74
Speaking of Rondo, just as all the big names are going against each other, so are the mid tier point guards. Rondo will face off with George Hill and even though its not the best of match ups, we're still getting Rajon at an excellent price given his new role in the Bulls back court. In his first two starts this week he paid nearly 7X each game. Last night however he came up somewhat short, finishing with 10 assists, but only 6 points and 4 rebounds for roughly 4X against a tough Wizards defense. Utah presents a similar match up to the Wiz coming in as the 6th toughest defense on opposing point guards. I told you PG wasn't pretty. Locking in Rondo isn't without it's risk, but if he can find some semblance of balance tonight between what he did against Boston and Charlotte, and what he did last night, then that's all we really need.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.06 DK - 30.61
Tony Parker is currently a GTD and for all of our sanity, I hope they decide to give him one more day to rest his back, because if he doesn't go Patty Mills shoots to the top of the pack for point guards. In 4 games that Parker has been out so far, Mills has averaged about 30 minutes of court time and aside from that first game where he managed only 5 points a block and a steal against the Thunder, he has been filling out the stat sheet nicely eclipsing value in his last three. Memphis is a league average match up, and Mills could present us with tons of value. If Parker suits up, this selection is null and void, but should he sit another then Mills is your guy!
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.61 DK - 29.61
Patrick Beverly comes in as another mid tier play with a nice match up. Houston heads in to Denver tonight and the Nuggets are coming in behind only the Nets for fantasy points allowed per game to opposing point guards. Beverly has only hit value in 2 of his last 5 outings, those were also the 2 games that he managed double digits in scoring. Denver is allowing 6% more scoring than league average at the position, as well as 4% more rebounds and 9% more assists, so as long as his shot is falling he should be looking at a double double which at this price point would help him to easily hit value.
Strongly consider Ty Lawson and Damian Lillard in the early only.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 60.8 DK - 65.56
Saving money at point guard, so lets spend it up at the two guard spot. The bearded one is coming in as the top overall point scorer on the night according to our projection system. Which is to be expected when he is going on a slate with no Westbrook. Anytime Harden takes to the court it's really only a question of just how much is he going to roast the opposing defense? As I write this Harden is just 1 assist shy of his third straight triple double, and there is still a full quarter to go against the Pelicans. He is also only about 7 fantasy points shy of paying value. Tonight sets up similar if not just a tad more favorable to last night, in that Denver plays a slightly faster pace than New Orleans, while also being slightly worse at defending the two. The one draw back for Harden is protecting the rock. He's currently turned it over 5 times against the Pels and has given it up an average of 6 times over his last 4 contests. The beard is an elite play every time out, and would be absolutely lethal if he could just protect the ball better.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 31.79 DK - 34.14
On the other side of the Houston/Denver game we find Will Barton. Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler are already ruled out again tonight. Thursday night against the Clippers with those two out, Barton dropped 35 points while snagging 5 rebounds, dishing out three assists and a steal. Barton tends to be a streaky player, he started out the month with 5 straight single digit scoring performances, but if Thursdays performance is an indicator of what we can expect to see from him while Gallo and Chandler are out, then we have to consider him tonight. These are two of the fastest teams in the Association and among the sixth most generous teams at the position defensively. You really don't have to look any further than this game when considering your shooting guard plays for the evening.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 29.24 DK - 30.92
But you say you want options. The two guys above just aren't enough to satisfy your lineup construction needs. Then I present to you Jeremy Lamb. Nicolas Batum has not been ruled out but if he does miss another game, Lamb becomes an elite play. However if Batum does give it a go tonight, that doesn't necessarily disqualify Lamb either. Lamb has been seeing extended run even coming off the bench scoring double digit points in three of his last 4 games. Washington can be tough on opposing shooting guards, so if Batum is cleared to play, I might just take a flyer on Lamb in a large gpp and hope he keeps his hot streak going, if Batum misses a third game though, I will have exposure to Lamb everywhere.
Strongly consider Victor Oladipo against the Kings in the early slate.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 51.54 DK - 54.79
Kevin Love returned to action on Thursday night, only for Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert to leave the Cavs game against the Jazz early with injuries. Irving traveled with the team to L.A. but his status is still uncertain. So even with the return of Love, LeBron James may continue to see increased usage for the Cavs as they continue to fend off the Celtics for that number one spot in the east. Since the break, James has been playing out of his mind, 5 triple doubles and 4 double doubles in 10 games played. The Clippers are the 8th worse team in the league when it comes to defending the three, allowing 2% more scoring, 4% more rebounds, 5% more assists, and 7% more steals to the position. I don't have an early line on this game, but if you think the Clippers can keep it competitive, and I for one do, then you have to consider James. The system like James Harden both for raw points and ppd, but if you need that little bit of salary relief then fitting James in instead shouldn't hurt you any in cash contests.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 21.49 DK - 22.95
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 22.54 DK - 24.35
Its the Joe and Joe show in Utah. When Rodney Hood is out, Joe Ingles steps in and performs nicely. With Hood out against Cleveland on Thursday, Ingles put up a 12/4/4 line for his third straight 5X performance. Joe Johnson meanwhile, has been reaping the benefits of Derrick Favors extended absence. Outside of a game against the Thunder last Saturday where he only saw 19 minutes, he has averaged 29 minutes in the other four games he has started with Favors out, scoring at least 12 points in each of those games. Favors has already been ruled out tonight, so expect Johnson see his sixth straight start. Hood's status however is still up in the air, if he misses another, Ingles is a great value, if Hood plays, I would limit Ingles to large tournaments.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 25.19 DK - 26.93
In case you haven't caught on yet, this is a game we are going to target heavily from both sides. Houston plays the 4th fastest pace in the league while Denver is 8th fastest. Early showings from Vegas has this one at a ridiculous 238 total and a mere 3 point spread. Defensively, the two teams rank anywhere from average to flat out bad when you go position by position. The Nuggets, are an average defense against the three. Ariza, after having a abysmal February, seems to be finding his old self in the early part of March. He struggled last night in the Rockets loss to the Pelicans, scoring in single digits for the first time in 6 games, in the previous 5 games, he not only scored a minimum of 11 and upwards of 20 points, he paid value in all 5 of those as well. Once again, these are two fast paced teams with weaker defenses in one of the highest projected scoring games of the season. Ariza should have no trouble making his shots in this one and is a solid play in all formats.
Consider Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore in the early slate.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 40.24 DK - 42.57
The Dubs have to be feeling a little bit better about themselves than they were this time last week. After coach Kerr rested this studs against San Antonio, following a 2-4 stretch, they returned with a win against Philly. Granted, that one was closer than anyone anticipated. Then they made the Magic feel like a bunch of Muggles, defeating them 122-92. When looking at the Warriors from a fantasy perspective, Draymond Green tends to always be at the top of the list. Partly because he comes in at a reasonable salary, that while not blowout proof, certainly provides us a little buffer. He fell just short of value in 25 minutes against Orlando, but not enough to really kill a lineup. In closer games though, the sky is the limit for Drays ceiling. That closer than it should have been game against Philly was good for over 7X ppd. This game tonight has a 217 o/u and an 11 point spread, but call me crazy, I think Milwaukee keeps it closer than that, at least long enough to allow Dray to see his full run of minutes. I'm loving Green in this spot and will have him in all formats.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 46.58 DK - 49.13
Well look at that, it's another pick from the Rockets/Nuggets game. Even though the price is bordering on ridiculously high, Nikola Jokic is coming in as a fantastic option tonight in this fast paced high scoring affair. He picked up his 5th triple double in his last 20 games on Thursday against the Clippers. With Gallinari and Chandler sidelined he is taking control of the Denver front court. The Nuggets offense is the second best in the NBA since the All Star break, and Houston is coming in among the league average in defense against opposing fours. I'm not sure that there is a whole lot of upside for Jokic at this price point, but for a cash game play, he is definitely in the conversation.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 23.18 DK - 24.5
At the opposite end of the price spectrum for Denver, we have Juan Hernangomez. Hernangomez got the start for Gallo Thursday night and put up a 9/5/1 line with a steal in 26 minutes, which while it doesn't look like much, it's all that you really need from a 4K player. Also, once again I'll say it, this game is going to be producing ridiculous fantasy output, so when we have a value play like Hern starting we just have to lock him in and watch the ceiling shatter. Juan is a cash game must and is looking at crazy upside in this one. Just play him everywhere.
If Markieff Morris is out again, Jason Smith becomes a fantastic play against the Hornets.
The system loves Paul Millsap in the early only.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 33.47 DK - 34.97
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.25 DK - 30.46
The Denver front court is becoming one of the most formidable in the NBA. Jokic and Miles Plumlee are proving to be a lethal combo. When paired with the Joker Plumlee is averaging 10.3 points, 5 boards and 8 dimes over his last 4 games. He's also paying 6X fantasy points per dollar in 3 of those 4. In his last 2 games he has seen an increase in minutes and managed 2 straight double doubles. If this type of production continues it won't be long before we see the price rise, so get him now while he's coming in at a bargain. Clint Capela on the other hand is only seeing minutes in the mid twenties, but has been making the most of them. He fell short against the Pelicans last night, but prior to that he managed to double double in 4 of his last six outings rewarding those who roster him with 5X to 7.5X performances. There isn't much more I can say about this game that I haven't already covered. Ultimately, regardless of the position, there is an abundance of fantasy value and upside to be found on both ends of the court.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 26.42 DK - 27.42
Frank the Tank Kaminsky has been back for two games now, in the first he saw 24 minutes compared to 34 for Cody Zeller. Wednesday against Indiana however Zeller only saw 27 minutes to Kaminsky's 31. Of course the Hornets were humiliated by the Pacers in that game, and Kaminsky coming off the bench was the only Hornet to really perform well. As long as the Hornets are going to use a three man rotation at the four and five however, then we are getting Cody Zeller at a bargain for what he brings to the table. Washington is an average match up for opposing big men and if you want separation from the Denver/Houston game or just want to go really cheap at center to fit some of those top tier plays from above then look no further than Cody Zeller.
Dwight Howard and Steven Adams are coming in as the top plays at center for the early only.
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View Comments
VALUE PICK GUY WHERE ARE YOU!?
Thanks Jerry and DFSR for another great write up. (Also for including some info on the early slate). Cheers!
There are six games but really only one solid game with the 240 projected total with the Houston & Denver. I could see you stacking this game 75%-100% for some lineups.
John Wall $10,400 played last game when he was questionable with an ankle issue. His FD price of $10,400 makes John Wall a solid cash guy but what puts him over the edge is if Morris sits out again (sinus infection) since without Morris Wall's usage rating sky rockets to 38.7% and he averages 1.3 fantasy pts per minute making him a possible GPP play too.
Jamal Murray $4,400 price has risen $400 since his last game but I still think there is value in the DEN PG who plays in the best game of the night (240 projected total). In his L3 Murray has been averaging 24.5 FD pts and in his L2 averaging almost 27 minutes per game without Chandler and Gallinari who both are out again tonight. Murray is cash and GPP for me
Manu Ginobili $3,900 I like as a semi punt play more so for cash. Without Parker and Murray Ginobili has had his usage rating pushed to 22% two out of the last three games. I think there is going to be a ton of overlap in lineups today so maybe swerving to Manu who has 6X potential is worth a look. As you can see I am really reaching here which really says a lot about the slate...
Denzel Valentine $3,700 again no Wade so everyone on the Bulls gets freed. Last game played 31 minutes has averaged 28 minutes in his L3. He has scored double digit points in his L4 and averaged 5.46X over his L5 on FD. He has only managed not to make 5X+ once in that timespan. Cash and GPP for me for my man Denzel!
Bradley Beal $8,500. FD has totally lost it. $8.5k is absurd for Beal plain and simple. On paper Beal is a straight fade since he in on a B2B and since this year in the two games he faced CHA only has averaged 32 FD pts. The silver lining is he probably doesn't have to face Batum (most likely out) and his ownership should be very low at an elevated price tag with everyone probably focusing on the DEN HOU game. Beal needs 50+ pts to be worth while so I am not buying a lot of stock in him but heck give me maybe 1-2 shares in a GPP since the guy has dropped three 50+ FD pt games since the start of February.
Kawhi Leonard $9,900. Personally I like Leonard better than LeBron tonight and that's my finally answer. Ok I get the fact that SAS and MEM have the 2nd lowest projected total at 197 but at $1,200 cheaper than LeBron I will takes my chances. Leonard has been en fuego for the month of March averaging 50 FD pts per game and that includes the game he left with a concussion and only put up 24 FD pts. With the Spurs being only 1.5 games back from the wobbly GSW I don't believe anyone is going to get Popped and sit tonight. All systems go cash and GPP.
Andre Iguodala $4,800 will the real Iggy please standup? You would think with no Durant, Andre would have flourished but really Iggy has been hit or miss. Really the only hot thing about Iggy has been his locker room comments. Either way Iggy always has 40+ fantasy point upside and get's MIL tonight so let's leave him as an intriguing GPP play.
Otto Porter $6,400 without Morris last night, Porter was decent putting up 14 pts 8 reb in a massive 38 minutes. Really the safest part of Porter has been his minutes and his FGA since in his L5 he has averaged 36.8 minutes per game and 11 FGA. He also has made 5X+ value four out of the last 6 games. I think the last game where he only 4X was an outlier since he only shot 42% from the floor and his L2 week and season average is 52% from the field. I like him for cash w/ room for 6X.
Tony Snell $4,200 oddly enough has been decent. I think I have lost my mind now that I have written this. With this said he has hit double digit pts in six out of the last seven games and averaged 31 minutes per game. I don't know why but Jason Kidd likes Snell and taking any consistent thing away from Kidd's madness is a blessing. Snell is defiantly not cash worthy for me but is a guy who could register high twenties to even thirty fantasy pts any given night making him a decent GPP option.
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,100 is a shooter and WAS has been letting him shoot since he has been averaging almost 10 attempts and averaging a 22% usage rating since coming over from Brooklyn. Furthermore Bojan this year has averaged 25 FD pts against CHA, now in some of these games Bojan started for the Nets but with possibly no Morris today I think Bojan gets his. GPP due to his wonky hibachi nature.
Nikola Mirotic $4,300 is like playing with fire, sometimes tantalizes other times he simply burns you. Last night or really in his L3 he has been great averaging 32 FD pts. It's very apparent that with no Wade the shots are going to him since in his L3 Mirotic has averaged 14 FGA. Even if Nikola shoots 37% from the field as he did last night Hoilberg has given him a longer leash since in his L3 he has averaged 29 minutes per game while in contrast only averaged 23 minutes per game for the season. I am hesitant to call this guy cash since he faces Utah and due to his volatility but maybe this is the risk you need to take tonight.
Marvin Williams $6,600 ah yes the real Marvin revealed himself last game. After putting up three straight 44+ FD pt games in his last five he burned me by putting up 16.7 FD pts last game. So which Marvin Williams do we get? Kaminsky is back but somewhat limited so I think Williams still receives a ton of run at 34 minutes but my question is, can he replicate his hot streak since in the games he registered 44+ FD pts he shot over 50% from the field, yet for the season he is a 42% shooter. Price and signs of cooling down make Williams a GPP play.
John Henson $4,000 I guess Henson is alive after all. Personally I think Henson is better than Thorn who is the Bucks starting center but what do I know Jason Kidd? Anyways Henson has made 5X+ on FD three out of the last 5 games. The problem is in those 3 games where Henson made value he played 19+ minutes, so do we think Kidd has the capacity to play Henson a meager 19+ minutes. For me worth a look at $4,000 in a GPP
JaMychal Green $4,200 gets SAS which is fantasy poo but Green is expected to start. By no means is Green a lock to do anything but as a starter he has flashed 30+ fantasy pt upside. Again the match up is gross but he will be low owned.
Jason Smith $3,500. Sadly I only got one Jason Smith lineup in before lock yesterday with the news of Morris being out. If Morris sits again Smith is a lock at $3,500 FD. Facing CHA I don't think he will have any problems operating and will be as close to as a must play as they get besides maybe Patty Mills (if Parker Murray sit).
Juan Hernangomez $4,000 no Chandler or Gallinari tonight again which hopefully pushes Juan back in as a starter. Juan has hit at least 5X on FD four out of the six times he has started and he has hit 6X+ three out of those six games as a starter. I think people thought Juan would smash last game (only 17.5 FD pts for 4.8X) which hopefully will lower his ownership tonight in a nice match up against HOU
Zaza Pachulia $4,400 really is the only competent true big man on GSW without Durant since Draymond Green really is only 6'6" even if they do call him a PF/C. Arguments aside has averaged almost 25 FD pts over his L4. He also gets MIL which will leave me screaming at my TV tonight, "You just got Zaza'd!"
Ian Mahinmi $3,500 wow what a difference no Morris makes who usually plays 30+ minutes per game for WAS. Ian has been stealing minutes from Gortat as of late game anyway and last game he served as the main reserve big and put down 24 FD pts and was .03% owned in GPP last night. I don't know if he will get 11 FGA again or have a 25% usage rating but at $3,500 I am getting me some Ian Mahinmi for sure if Morris sits.
Great article, also appreciate your write up Joseph. Quick question for FD, which SF combo you like better for single entry GPP? LBJ/Ariza or Kawhi/Middleton?
Bloody great read joesph, the fantasy poo call had me on the floor!