Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
There is a huge winter storm rolling through the east coast today. This could have an impact on the Thunder/Nets game and Pacers/Knicks game both in New York. It could potentially impact the Pistons/Cavaliers game in Cleveland too, but I don't think theyre expecting quite as much snow out there. If these games are postponed players from the games will receive 0 points if selected. Keep an eye on the forecast, check our update article out later today, and pop in the chat room for the latest on the weather and any potential postponements.
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 65.21 DK - 69.34
82 games. Barring injury or suspension, that's how many games Russell Westbrook will play in the regular season, and he probably appears in this spot around sixty or so conservatively. How many different ways are there to say play this guy? He's a scoring machine (at least 45 points in 5 of his last 8 outings), a triple double threat (2 straight, 6 in his last ten), and even at this insane price he has crushed value in three of his last 5. Tonight OKC travels into Brooklyn and we all know what that means. Two of the top seven teams in pace factor, and Brooklyn is a defensive punching bag. Particularly at point guard. You could attempt the fade in tournaments if you want to live dangerously, and there are other ways to pay up, which we will touch on shortly, but back to my original question, I'm not sure how many ways there are to say it, so I'll just put it bluntly. Play this guy.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 44.23 DK - 47.59
Damian Lillard has been playing on a whole new level since the All Star break, as evidenced by his price. He's averaging nearly $400 more per game since the break than leading in to it and for the most part has been well worth it. Sunday night in Phoenix he lit the Suns up for 39 points with 4 threes, and a perfect 9-9 at the line after dropping 33 against Washington the night before. The addition of Jusuf Nurkic has freed him up to maximize his catch and shoot skills and he should keep the points coming against a Pelicans D allowing 7% more scoring to the position this season. If you do fade Russ, this is where you want to look.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 31.84 DK - 33.8
Rose took a hit to the face late in Sundays loss to the Nets, but it doesn't seem to be anything to worry about, and as of this writing he isn't showing on any reports, which is great news, because the system is high on him tonight against the Pacers. Rose, for what it's worth has primarily been a scorer for the Knicks this year, and hasn't produced a complete game. It seems when he's snagging boards, he's not distributing the ball as much, and when he is doling out the assists, the rebounds don't seem to come. Indiana is a league average match up, and are giving up 4% more assists to opposing point guards, so as long as his shot is falling, Rose should be able to hit value with ease.
Consider Jeremy Lin going against the Thunder.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 38.79 DK - 41.8
Right there with his partner Damian Lillard in the Blazers back court, C.J. McCollum has been heating up lately. He has had 5 straight 20+ point performances. While he has seen a nearly 10 point drop in usage with the addition of Nurkic, it hasn't hurt his fantasy production in the least. He's still getting his shots, handing out assists, and protecting the ball, averaging less than a turnover per game over his last 6. Defensively, the Pelicans are a little tougher at the two, but are still allowing 4% more scoring than average. Pairing Lillard and McCollum together in a large tournament is a great way to go, and I love McCollum in cash games as well.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.26 DK - 34.13
Victor Oladipo missed six games with a sore back and based on his shooting in three games since returning, it has helped his wrist as well. Dipo missed 9 games in December with a sprained wrist and really wasn't himself when he came back, but after this recent stint on the injury report, he's shooting 55.3% from the field with 10 three pointers and 6 of 7 from the courtesy line. Tonight he draws the Nets and once again the Nets are bad. Six percent more scoring, seven percent more rebounds and three percent more assists to opposing shooting guards bad. Oladipo has gotten just a little bit hotter in each of his three games back and tonight he could very well explode. 5X is his floor and I'd put the ceiling at 6.5X. Excellent play across all formats.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 32.33 DK - 35.52
After 4 losses in 6 games, coach Kerr announced Saturday night he was going to sit his big guns in a hotly anticipated match up with the Spurs. I assume the mindset there was sit them out and they get three days to clear their heads before hosting the Sixers. Philly just hasn't been the same team since shutting down Embiid and dealing Noel to the Mavs, and the team they were wasn't anywhere near the league the Warriors are in. This game is the one true blow out game in Vegas' eyes, with a 17 point spread, but if we were to target someone from this game Klay would be my guy. He comes in at the cheapest price of the Warriors big three, even in games that get out of hand, he should be good for 30 minutes at the least. If the Sixers can find a way to keep this one competitive Klay could be in for a 6X performance, but at the very least he should pay value against a defense allowing 46 fantasy points to opposing SG's over their last 5 games. I understand if you look to the two guys above for cash but as a tournament option locking Thompson in could make all the difference.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 51.14 DK - 54.08
Everyone is talking about Russ, the beard and Kawhi in the MVP conversation, and right there in the mix is the King. It's no coincidence the Cavs are again leading the pack in the east. LeBron is shooting .540 from the field which has him on pace for his best season outside of South Beach. Saturday night in Orlando he completed his second straight triple double and his ninth on the season. The next night the Cavs headed in to Houston where from a fantasy perspective James fell a little short in his performance with a still impressive 30/7/5 line with 2 steals, but turning the ball over 8 times. Prior to that however, he paid value at this price tag in 5 straight contests, including Thursday night when he went 29/13/10 against these same Pistons. I don't think the ceiling goes much higher than the floor here at this price, but as a cash game play you can do much worse than bowing to the King.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.48 DK - 40.85
As the Pacers look to solidify their spot in the postseason, look for Paul George to be the determining factor. Sunday, George nearly defeated the Heat single handedly scoring 28 points, nearly double all of his teammates, while grabbing 10 rebounds, an assist, a steal, and a block in 37 minutes. This was the 5th time in 6 games he scored at least 20 points and the third time in 4 games he double doubled. Tonight the Pacers head in to New York to take on the Knicks. Defensively these two teams match up pretty evenly on the lower end of average and both sides of the ball are a good place to look when considering small forward.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 35.49 DK - 37.72
Which brings us to Melo. When looking at these guys as ppd options in our system, they're coming in almost identical, with George the slightly better play on FanDuel, and Melo over on DraftKings due to the drastic pricing difference over there. When comparing the two, George has been much more consistent than Anthony over the past several games, but Melo does have some factors in his favor. As I mentioned the teams match up evenly defensively, and Anthony is coming in off a stellar performance against the Nets on Sunday. His second best performance since the break. From a safety standpoint, I would go PG in cash on FanDuel, while both are in play on DraftKings, and Melo could make a sneaky tournament play on both sites.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 36.01 DK - 38.09
Knicks fans haven't had a lot to smile about this season, but you have to feel optimistic having a young talent like Kristaps Porzingis as your power forward. Even with all of the chaos and confusion of the Kicks season, KP has been quietly rolling along recently topping both 100 blocks and 100 3 pointers. His 19 points and 10 rebounds against the Nets on Sunday led him to his 11th double double of the season. He finished that game out with 4 assists and 5 blocks. The most interesting thing about Zinger however is his price. It really hasn't budged. He's been a mid 6k player on both sites since before the break despite his exceeding value in three of his last 6. If he's going to continue playing as he has and the sites aren't going to correct then we have to take advantage while we can. Especially against a Pacers team allowing 8% more rebounds and steals and 23% more blocks than average at the position. KP is about as safe as you can find with plenty of upside at the price.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.29 DK - 39.57
I said above that Klay is the play to make from the Warriors/Sixers match, but at a weaker PF position, we can also consider Draymond Green. Dray, like Klay, sat out Sundays loss to the Spurs following Golden States fourth loss in six games, and returns tonight, fully rested and head cleared to take on the Sixers. Prior to the game off, Green was in a bit of a funk, he put up a mere 5/6/7 line in the loss to Minnesota on Saturday, so if anyone needs a bounce back game tonight it's him, and Philly presents the perfect opportunity. While they've been tough at the four this season, with the loss of Embiid and Noel, over the last ten games Philly has fallen to a bottom 7 defense. The recent performance, coupled with the insane blowout factor makes this one a little risky, but again, this is one of the tougher positions of the night and if this turns out to be Draymonds bounce back game, and Philly can keep it relatively close, this pick could pay dividends.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.85 DK - 25.94
We round out power forward with a cheap escape. Al-Farouq Aminu comes in as a Blazers bench player, but that is really in name only. While Noah Vonleh draws the starts for Portland, Aminu runs the boards for at least thirty minutes per game. Aminu isn't really an offensive force, but he does have his flashes, scoring from 2-23 points in his last six games. His fantasy value is dependent primarily on the rebounds. When he's grabbing boards he's good, when he's making baskets he's better, unfortunately he doesnt do both all too often, making his last double double just over a month ago. Tonight he'll spend time contending with Anthony Davis who along with the Pelicans defense is allowing 7% more rebounds, 18% more assists and 8% more steals to opposing fours. There are plenty of positions to pay up at tonight, so if you're looking for a fine value play to save some salary do it at PF with Aminu.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 49.17 DK - 52.34
How exactly does Boogie fit in to the Pelicans offensive plan? It seems, the Pels themselves are still trying to determine the answer to that question. Boogie sat out the final 14 minutes of the game against Charlotte on Saturday to combat the Hornets smaller line. That shouldn't be an issue tonight against Portland, meanwhile, some less than Boogieesque performances coupled with sharing court time with Anthony Davis has dropped Cousins salary down below 10K on both sites. Even following his dismal 11/4/4 line with six turnovers against Charlotte, I still feel we're getting Boogie at a value here. Portland's allowing 4% more scoring and 3% more rebounds to opposing big men. I'm expecting a nice bounce back for Cousins, and with the depressed salary it could pay off in a big way.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 32.92 DK - 35.01
While the Pelicans and Cousins are experiencing growing pains, on the other side of this game, we have a trade that is paying off in a big way. Since coming over from Denver, Jusuf Nurkic has made a huge impact on the Portland front court. Even with the performance dipping down a little in his last couple of outings, he is still performing well enough to satisfy fantasy standards. Most recently, Nurkic double doubled against the Suns, having his way with Marquese Chriss, tearing up the paint and throwing down dunks. Tonight, he could be looking at another big performance against a Pelicans front court struggling to find its identity and allowing 11% more rebounds, 15% more assists, and 8% more blocks than average. Both of these players make for good options in all formats, basically just comes down to how much salary you have to spend at the position.
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View Comments
Weird slate and please be aware NYC games could be cancelled. With that said let's assume they play.
I love Westbrook cash and GPP but if you want to Fade I like going Lillard + Teague. Like DFSR has stated Lillard has been LIGHTING up cats (straight tilting) and Teague get the Knicks PGs. Teague has been struggling as of late but has had some success against the Knicks in the 3 games he has played against them this year averaging 33 FD pts (mostly due to a 19 pt dud).
Do you like Russian roulette? Well if you love guessing which guy on Kenny's crazy 20 minute allocation goes off for the Nets then maybe you might like Isaiah Whitehead. Defiantly a GPP and not for the faint of heart but the last three out of the four games Whitehead has scored 20+ FD pts and at $3,600 we call that making value.
No Bob Cov for the 76s tonight so SG Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot at $3,700 graces us with his presence. Last three games he has made value twice. Should see some usage bump a great value GPP play to get Westy and LBJ in our lineups.
Jordan Crawford is back! At min salary NOLA Crawford has been a heat seeking missile. In his first three games he has hit value and registered 28.7, 17.1, and 29.2 FD pts. Let's face it maybe NOLA has AD and Boogie but they have zero shooting and this is where JC our lord and savior comes in.
IMO I prefer PG over Melo if it was a debate...
Saric at $7,700 is crazy expensive but remember no Covington, 50 Pt upside, and last game out against the GSW he put up 40 FD pts. Due to salary GPP but borderline cash for me.
By now you might think I crazy with some of my value picks but hold on... for PF may I present you Quincy Acy $3600 and Taj Gibson $4000. Quincy has hit value in his last three games at near min salary. Taj on the other hand ha been pretty inconsistent on OKC, but he is coming home to Brooklyn (if you buy into that kind of stuff) and as a Bull he has averaged 20 FD pts (mostly due to one 1.2 pt outing) against the Net's. Where Brooklyn at?
Now let me present you Myles Turner who is averaging 35 FD pts against the Knicks this year I think Turner will be less owned than Nurkic, Boogie, and maybe Drummond. Turner IMO makes a great GPP play in not cash. Now here is my long shot, Jahil Okafor. While Okafor has been putrid in the two times he has played GSW in his career there is no Bob Cov tonight and in those two games he took a combined 11 fga, that's right 11. In his last 3 he has averaged 12 shots per game and averaging 28 FD pts. It could be Okafor can't handle GSW or it could be with no Noel and Covington he could actually be useful
Thanks JR. You provided me with so interesting insights into tonights games. Should be interesting. Covington is listed as probable (Cabarrot out.)
ALL GAMES GO TONIGHT!!!
Hope everyone had some luck last night, now just so everyone knows my picks that I posted last night was my early picks with no research which did pretty bad at 266 dk points but my final lineups before lock did pretty good as my best lineup had 333.75 dk points which had last minute additions butler56,towns62,payton51,carter 41, lamb 38, mills 36?,harris 33 ibaka 14 now ibaka obviously screwed me but I will soon post my early picks. Good luck
By the way the new York game is a go
I highly doubt that covington will play tonight