Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
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Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 41.36 DK - 44.39
Lillard will start us off here at point guard on a slate with only 5 games. Out of those 5 games, this affair between the Blazers and 76ers should be one of the more fruitful in terms of DFS. Lillard has been playing extremely well lately, topping 38 points in 6 straight and a few games over 50. He gets a match-up with the 76ers tonight, who are one of the weaker perimeter defensive teams in the league. Giving up over 47 FP per game to PG's, Sergio Rodriguez and T.J. McConnell are not good on-ball defenders. Lillard also plays much better at home, scoring over 2 points per game and 1.5 assists. He has been shooting the ball more as well, which has led to a usage bump since last month. While there are only 5 games on this slate, there are plenty of ways to pay up at PG. Lillard is our favorite on the board, though you can definitely look up to a guy like Westbrook or down to a Chris Paul or Conley in tournaments. With that being said, the ownership levels should be lowered by the many options available. Lillard is a very solid option in both cash games and tournaments, with a 4.5x floor and a 7.5x ceiling.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.27 DK - 36.16
There are 5 elite PG's listed above $8k on FD and $8.6k on DK. All 5 of those guys can be considered and obviously have the ability to put up huge numbers. Chances are at least a couple of them will have nice nights, but none of them really stand out, outside of Lillard. Taking a step down in salary from those guys, we will take a look at D'Angelo Russell. Russell has been playing extremely well for the Lakers, finishing with 30 fantasy points in 6 of his last 8, with only one game under 20. Russell has been notoriously inconsistent, so it's great to see any level of consistency out of him at this point. It looks like the Lakers finally understand that Russell is the future and must be played quality minutes on a consistent basis. This matchup with the Suns is one I'm pretty excited for, as they play extremely fast and aren't worried about stopping anyone, let alone point guards. The Suns have allowed the 3rd most FP per game to PG, at a pitiful 51.7. Russell is a guy I will have exposure too in both cash games and tournaments, though he still holds a bit of risk. You can also play Jordan Clarkson, who's a bit cheaper and has been playing well as of late.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 27.43 DK - 29.48
Reggie Jackson has scared a lot people away this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go under-owned here because of it. There are definitely some legitimate reasons to be concerned about Jackson, one of which being his coach saying he may get benched for Ish Smith. However, he's since put in some nice games and saw over 30 minutes twice in the last 4. He should be able to have success against the Cavs, as Kyrie Irving is the weakest link on this defense. They will also need Reggie Jackson on the floor for defense. Ish Smith is super fast and good in transition, but is a putrid defender that won't be able to stay with Kyrie. Jackson is definitely more of a tournament option, though one I have a ton of interest in. If you need to pay down even further, I would look to Tyler Ulis. The Suns could match the Lakers and play small, which they are more than willing to do.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 27.29 DK - 28.98
Caldwell-Pope was absolutely atrocious last night. Finishing with just 5 fantasy points in 27 minutes of action, he did a lot of people wrong, including me. It was easily his worst game of the season and he wasn't feeling it at all. Both Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris also got hot, which let them take as money shots as they wanted. KCP's ownership will certainly take a huge hit tonight, which we will take advantage of. This is a guy we know Van Gundy loves, and I think he sees almost 40 minutes in this contest. Looking at the box scores, it seems to me that KCP plays more in "big games". This game against the Cavs certainly constitutes and it will be interesting to see how this turns out. He will likely see the defense of Kyrie Irving, as I would expect the Cavs to play Liggins or Shumpert at the 2 and put him on Jackson. All in all, KCP is a guy I will have everywhere tonight. Here's to hoping for a bounce back performance! Please.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 37.18 DK - 40.2
McCollum is the most expensive SG on the slate, even at just $7k. Like Lillard, McCollum is facing off with some very weak defenders in Nik Stauskas and T.J. McConnell. McCollum has played well all season long, averaging 24 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists. McCollum is a guy who is heavily pace-dependent, relying on transition buckets and steals for his upside. McCollum is also cheaper than Lillard on both sites, with similar upside, though a much lower floor. This game between the 76ers and Blazers has a total of 221, which is the 2nd highest on the slate. McCollum is definitely more of a SG, but will step in and play the point when Lillard is on the bench. The Blazers do a pretty good job of staggering the rotation so one of them is always manning the point, with Allen Crabbe taking the 2 over for whoever needs rest. While I do prefer Caldwell-Pope for his price, McCollum is an extremely solid option here.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.74 DK - 30.05
Shooting guard is certainly one of the more limited positions of the night, offering only a couple of options to feel comfortable in. Booker is one of those guys for me, as he is just too good to not pay off this salary in this match-up. The Lakers have been atrocious against guards for about 5 years now. This year they rank 5th worst, allowing over 42 fantasy points per game to SG's. Booker has been a bit cold lately, but stepped it up last game and shot the ball well. He has the upside to put up 50 fantasy points with ease and even went on a stretch earlier this year where he regularly put up 40 fantasy points. Sitting below $7k on both sites, I do expect Booker to be very popular in this match-up. For that reason, I do see the merit in a fade. All in all, I think Booker is a fantastic option and I will have plenty of exposure.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 47.23 DK - 49.61
You have to absolutely LOVE Kawhi Leonard in this spot. After being rested last night, you have to expect Popovich to play Leonard big minutes in what figures to be a very competitive game. Leonard has been dominant lately, topping 50 in 4 straight. Leonard has finally cemented himself in the MVP discussion and it'll be interesting to see how the rest of the season turns out. As for tonight, I guess Andre Roberson will cover him. Roberson is a very good defender, but not against guys that have the type of size Leonard does. I expect Leonard to post-up all game until they send a different defender, who will likely be Jerami Grant. Leonard will have no problem with him either, as he is way too skinny and weak to contain Kawhi. I guess Westbrook could take a shot as well down the stretch, but he's not the greatest defender in his own right. This game may not have the highest over/under on the slate, but will be very high-tensioned and competitive. This should allow Leonard to play huge minutes and shoot a lot. Leonard is easily one of the top options on this slate and I will probably have 100% of him.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.98 DK - 27.13
Warren has been phenomenal lately, sitting around 30 fantasy points every single game. That is more than enough against the Lakers, who he will probably see some extra minutes and production against. Warren is still far too cheap on both sites, sitting around $6k. He only needs to get you 3o to hit value, which should be easy against this putrid defense. Warren isn't a guy who relies on scoring ton, which is why he is so consistent. Warren is a fantastic defender that can also hit 3's and slash to the basket. Bledsoe and Booker love playing with him as he set fierce screens as well as hit a pick n pop 3. The Lakers have ranked as the 4th worst team in the league against SF's, allowing 43 FP per game. Warren is one of the safer options on this slate and easily a top cash game option at SF. Leonard and Warren will be a mainstay in my cash games.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 22.39 DK - 23.71
As you can tell by now, the Blazers are a team we will be targeting a ton on this 5 game slate. Harkless is one of the better value options to choose from, coming in at just $4.8k on FanDuel and $5.5k on DraftKings. Harkless has been extremely consistent and productive, regularly sitting above 23 FP. The Blazers have relied on Harkless to hit 3's and play solid defense, often matching him up with the opposing teams' superstar. Since the 76ers don't really have one of those, he should be a bit more rested on offense and possibly get more involved. The match-up is great for Harkless, who excels in fast-paced environments. He's still a raw player that relies on athleticism and 3-point shooting to make the bulk of his offensive impact. That can be very effective against the 76ers, as they give up a ton of peripherals and 3's to everybody, let alone a team that spaces the floor like the Blazers. You can safely expect 30 minutes out of Harkless with the upside for many more. He is a viable option in all formats, though I prefer him in cash games.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 35.07 DK - 37.49
Dario Saric is really the only guy we can consistently rely on from Philly anymore. Covington and McConnell certainly have some good nights, but lack the consistency and production to warrant cash game consideration. Saric on the other hand, has been the focal point of this offense since Joel Embiid went down for the season. This match-up with the Blazers is a solid one for Saric, as they've struggled mightily against stretch 4's this season. Dating back to the start of the season, the Blazers have allowed the 6th most 3's to PF's, followed by allowing the 3rd most FP in the league to PF's at 46.8 per game. Saric is a huge mismatch for whoever draws the responsibility. Assuming Okafor plays, Al-farouq Aminu would start on Saric. While a good team defender, he is too small and lacks the footwork to contain Saric. Dario is pretty fairly priced, so the ownership shouldn't get too crazy. At a position that lacks both value and a good superstar, feel free to pay up for Dario Saric in all formats.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.11 DK - 35.16
The top 2 guys at PF are pretty cut and dry up top with Saric and Randle. Blake Griffin always has huge upside, but takes on the Grizzlies in a huge pace-down game for the Clippers. Randle on the other hand, will see an uptick in pace from the Suns, who are one of only 8 teams that play faster than the Lakers. This game currently has the highest over/under of the slate at 230 with a very close line. Marquese Chriss, who we will touch on soon, will match-up with Randle. He's an insanely good shot blocker, but lacks the footwork and power to stay with polished forward. Expect Randle to put his head down and take it to the rim, while keeping Chriss on his toes by nailing a few jumpers. He could also see some time on Alan Williams if the Lakers play small, which will be a decent match-up. He won't be able to do much down low, but will have a huge advantage on the outside, where he has shot well recently. Randle is one of the safest options at this position and I'll have exposure everywhere.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 22.03 DK - 23.09
Outside of Saric and Randle, there are questions on everybody. Marquese Chriss certainly provides some reasons to worry, like his inconsistent minutes and his foul problems. With that being said, Chriss has been playing well lately and his price has stayed the same. Seeing over 25 minutes in each of the last 3 games, Chriss has taken advantage and put up 17+ in each. While we won't be happy with 17, I think he does much better here. This will be his best match-up yet and should be able to dominate the glass. The Lakers drive a ton as well, which should turn into a block party. Chriss will also help you pay up elsewhere, which can make a huge difference in the long run. Don't et me wrong, Chriss is risky. He can easily get into foul trouble and play 10 minutes. He could also play 30 minutes and score 35 fantasy points. make sure you get at least a little bit of exposure.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.34 DK - 38.47
It looks like the Blazers made an excellent trade sending away Mason Plumlee for Nurkic and a 1st rounder. Nurkic is a far better player than Plumlee, on both offense and defense. The Blazers have shown their willingness to play Nurkic big minutes, topping 30 in 3 of the last 4 and 35+ in 2 of them. This is one of the better possible match-ups for Nurkic, as the 76ers don't have anybody with similar size, strength or skill down low. Dario Saric is phenomenal on offense, but is far too brittle and light to cover Nurkic. I assume Jahlil Okafor will return tonight, which is great news for Nurkic. Okafor is widely regarded to be a putrid defender and it's said to be the reason he was benched in the first place. Nurkic is a solid option in all formats and is fairly priced around all sites.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.5 DK - 35.85
The Suns are obviously a team we are targeting a ton tonight. Alan Williams will close it off here for the Suns at center. He may be one of out favorite of the 4, due to his insane consistency as of late. His price is also very fair, especially on FanDuel where he is still under $6k. Williams is a very talented big man and can rebound with the best of them. The Lakers lack an interior presence and I find it hard to believe Timofey Mozgov or Ivica Zubac (if he plays) have a chance of stopping him. The Suns have done a great job of making sure he gets minutes, as they know the impact he has on the game. The coaching staff has already said he will continue to see minutes until Alex Len is ready, which could be some time. Williams is a safe cash game option and you can play him in tournaments as well. He hasn't showed the 50 point upside yet, but it could be coming. Center has a few good options and Williams is right there.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.38 DK - 39.72
Gasol is a guy I rarely target, as he doesn't have too high of a ceiling. However, he is always a great cash game play. Today, he takes on the Clippers and DeAndre Jordan. While Jordan is a good shot blocker, he lacks defensive footwork and the ability to stop any center with a smidge of offensive talent. Gasol has a lo more than a smidge, as one of the top centers in the league. With Chris Paul back, this game should have no problem staying close. In return, look for Gasol to see at least 35 minutes and 14 shots. He has a good sense as to when he needs to step up and play well and this is definitely one of those games. I don't hate him in tournaments either today. The masses will be on Williams and Nurkic, which will leave Gasol under-owned. Gasol is a solid option in all formats, though he makes more sense in cash games.
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View Comments
I like Bledsoe. His matchup is too good to pass up.
I usually have most of your picks in one of my lineups but I'm not cashing very often. Getting the right combos seems to be getting harder
What defensive metrics are u guys looking at to claim Ish Smith as a putrid defender? I have watch my fair share of piston games and seems to me that Jackson is the putrid defender since in tight games the pistons almost always have Ish running the point so that would suggest to me that he is the superior defender of the 2.
I was referring to these defensive metrics
DFG% (% of field goals contested)
RJax - 50.3%
Smith- 44.1%
Jackson has also held 3-point shooters to 33% FG%, to Ish Smith's 41%. Smith is sometimes the better defender for the specific match-up, but in general, Jackson is better.
Top player of the day?
Kawhi!!!!!!!!!
I think stacking the last two games of the night makes total sense hence your picks, but I think the lack of Bledsoe for a pick is alarming since (1) I think it's temping to look at Lillard's L5 at 46.26 FD pts and just pencil him against some seemingly bad McConnell defense but I wouldn't say he is a lock since his L3 against Philly he has averaged a paltry 27.4 pts. That's not to say I wont get some LIllard especially if your playing the late slate but more contrarian (ever so slightly) play would be Bledsoe who get a DVP dream in facing the Lakers and in his L3 he has averaged 45.4 Fd pts with two 50+ games.
Also I really like Aminu for the late slate. While Saric and Randle are great if you can fit them both in I wouldn't mind fading Saric at $7400 isn't some amazing value and while his first outing against Philly wasn't as a starter he did take 12 attempts and shot a paltry .083%. Now the law of averages is bound to be in effect here but Portland's athletic and long bigs could damper his play. Now Aminu probably will not do 6X but but in his L5 he has been averaging 24.42 FD Pts with an average of 29.4 minutes per game. I really don't see this changing w/ Davis and Turner out.
Who has a higher owner % in drake kings gpp LeBron or kyrie
Bledsoe is GTD. No injury update today?
Wasn't anything at all relevant before that Bledsoe. Ulis and Booker take direct bumps and everyone in the starting lineup is in play against the Lakers. Bledsoe could also end up being extremely low-owned in a good match-up if he plays.
Patty Mills is gonna be my dude tonight with parker resting.