Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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Las Vegas Motor Speedway - Las Vegas, Nevada
Track - 1.5 Mile D Shaped Oval Intermediate Track
20° Banking in the Corners
Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy NASCAR. Starting this week I am going to be doing things a bit different. I will be publishing an early look/preview article on Wednesday with a look at the track, stats, trends and some pre-qualifying & practice picks. Then after qualifying and practice, I will publish a more in-depth picks article which will be focused around place differential and dominator picks along with some lower tier value for GPP's. Let's dig in!
This week the Monster Energy Cup series heads to Las Vegas this week to start the three-race West Coast swing. The Las Vegas race weekend holds a special place in my heart as it was where I not only got to see my first ever NASCAR race, but I also married my wife the next day. I joke with her all time that if I ever forget the date of our Anniversary I just have to go to historic Vegas races and find Carl Edwards win. She doesn't find it as humorous as I do. Back to racing.
Las Vegas Motor Speedway is another mile and a half intermediate track like Atlanta but the comparisons end with the length. Las Vegas has less four degrees less banking in the turns and much more grip than we saw at Atlanta Motor Speedway last weekend. One of the biggest challenges at LVMS is the bumps that are very prevalent between turns one and two where the tunnel goes underneath the track. The track is also one of the fastest mile and half's on the circuit and hold a track qualifying record of 196.328 mph(Kurt Busch in 2016).
Let's take a look at some of the stats and trends going into this week's Kobalt 400:
Brad Keselowski is the defending champion after starting 4th last year and making a last lap pass of Dale Earnhardt Jr. to pick up the win. From a "Dominator" standpoint, it was Joey Logano(74) and Jimmie Johnson(76) leading the most laps. In 2015 it was Kevin Harvick crushing everything DFS as he started 18th, picked up 17 place differential points and then led 142 laps before grabbing the checkered flag.
Joey Logano has never won here but his time is coming when looking at his career history. In eight races, he has four Top 10's and has only finished outside the Top 15 twice giving him an impressive 10.8 average finish. You definitely have to give the nod to Jimmie Johnson here at Vegas, like most tracks, as he has four career wins and nine Top 10 finishes in 15 career races. Johnson has also led the most laps(576) of all the active drivers with Matt Kenseth(526) right behind. In a small sample size, Ryan Blaney has been impressive here at LVMS starting 30th in 2015 and finishing 19th and then last season started 14th and finished 6th. He is trending in the right direction.
A few things stand out here. First of all, Jimmie Johnson has been boom or bust over the last 25 intermediate track races with a whopping seven wins but only ranks 8th in average finish(12.6). Kyle Busch has been incredibly consistent in his last 21 intermediate tracks races with four wins and an 8.1 average finish. No surprise who has led the most laps. Kevin Harvick right at the top with 1,497 laps led with Martin Truesd Jr. the only other driver with over a 1,000.
Kevin Harvick($10,700) & Kyle Busch($10,100) - They rank #1/#2 on my initial model. Harvick is the most expensive but should once again have the best shot at dominator points. Busch saw a $300 price drop and coems in 4th insalary this week making him a nice high-end value for GPP's.
Dale Earnhardt Jr($9,200) - After back to back races where newlyweds have won I guess it's Dale Jr's turn? He comes at a nice value this week as his salary has trended down in back to back races. He has the 4th best average finish(6.0) over the last two races and has 10 Top 10 finishes in his 17 career races. You can bet he will be looking to jump start his season after falling outside the Top 20 in both races so far. He was oh so close last year and could be as under-owned as you will ever get him this week due to that poor form.
Paul Menard($6,800) - My favorite play in the sub $7K range this week. He hasn't tallied a Top 10 in the last two years but also hasn't finished outside the Top 20 since back in 2009. Pretty impressive for a value range driver. If he qualifies outside the Top 20, he will be a near lock for me this week.
For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
Thank you for the Cheat sheet, it was very interesting, especially laps led. I knew Harvick was good , but never realized just how dominant at leading he has been, or how few Earnhardt Jr. has led at these tracks. Kind of an eye opener, and great insight to how these drivers and teams perform. I play Harvick often , especially when he is off in qualifying, Jr., I usually only play on the big tracks. Blaney has been one of my fav picks even though it was up and down last year, the Wood Bros. always bring a good car, and this year it appears they have let Blaney off the leash to go for it. So far my DK season is off to a mediocre start, basically I'm playing for free from past winnings, but this year I've won 90$, but in actual sense, I lost approximate 30 $ from what I began with. : ) Hope this weekend will be better.
Cheers !!
Thanks for reading Kevin. I absolutely love Harvick from a fantasy perspective on intermediate tracks and other tracks when he starts back in the field. I also think there is going to be an edge with Kyle Larson at intermediates for awhile. This new package is right up his alley.
You would never have heard me say that before DFS as I am a die hard Kyle Busch fan while my wife is a Harvick fan only to spite me. LOL. She would!!