Boston Celtics guard Evan Turner, left, tries to block San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard, right, in the fourth quarter of an NBA basketball game Sunday, Nov. 1, 2015, in Boston. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)
Well it's a huge Monday slate, and after a strong weekend for the line-up optimizer, there are a ton of great value plays to start the week. The big decision will actually come down to where we want to spend up. There are value plays for miles (that I'll spell out below), but it might wind up being tough to figure out which of them to prioritize. Let's see if we can't un-muddy the waters a bit.
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 40.6 DK - 42.9
With so much value flying around tonight, I'm starting to think that point guard is a good place to invest a little bit more of your salary. Instead of going super high end, though, I'm taking a hard look at Mike Conley. Brooklyn combines playing the fastest pace in the league with the league's worst defense, and that predictably this has caused them to yield the most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. For his part, Conley has been a rock solid value on these prices recently, averaging 5.4x points per dollar in his last 4 contests (in admittedly good match-ups). No sweat about his weak schedule recently for this one - this is a dream match-up and a dream spot to play Conley in all formats.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 32.68 DK - 34.54
He's certainly no Conley, but Rose provides some excellent consistency and value on his price as well. Like Conley, he's topped 5x points per dollar in each of his last 4 games. We also have the additional information of how he's done against Orlando specifically, putting together a solid 19/7/4 against them in spite of playing the fewest minutes he's played in any of his recent games. It's no fluke, either. The Magic have allowed the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards this season. Starting your cash games with Conley and Rose looks phenomenal, and just writing it up has me excited for the value on this slate.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.01 DK - 30.78
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.25 DK - 28.23
If you want to go a little cheaper (and likely way off board for big tournaments), here are two cheaper plays you can consider. Neither is without risk, though. Brogdon seems to be the point guard du'jour in Milwaukee, playing 42 minutes against the Raptors while Dellavedova looked on longingly from the sidelines. But he also played 24 minutes in the game prior. Lawson's story is pretty similar - he's got a lot of competition in Sacramento, but he's also paid 5x points per dollar easily in each of his last 3 games. They've both got excellent match-ups, too - Denver is second to only Brooklyn in terms of FPs allowed to PGs, and Philly has been in and out of the top 10 all season. I can't sign off on either of these guys as safer than Rose or Conley, but both need to be firmly on your radar for big tournaments.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.07 DK - 30.49
Shooting guard doesn't afford us the same safety as point guard, but there's still a fair amount to like here. Fournier's been nothing to write home about recently, but he has been solidly putting up about 4.6x points per dollar in less than stellar match-ups, so a top 5 match-up with the Knicks looks pretty good here. He only scored 24.4 fantasy points against them in their recent meeting, but you have to appreciate the 15 shots (up from his season average of 13) and the increased usage he's shown recently. It's important to keep an eye on Vucevic for this selection, as odd as it sounds. Biyombo is just not involved in the offense, and Vucevic's absence opens up a decent amount of action here. With Vuc unlikely to play, Fournier tops my current shooting guard list.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 36.3 DK - 39.17
McCollum balled out of control against the Nets last night, and while we probably can't expect a repeat of that transcendent performance, we don't totally need him to pay 6x points per dollar for him to pay off in this match-up. McCollum's an interesting case, though, because this match-up actually isn't very good. The projection system is simply seeing him as too cheap for the consistent production he was putting together before this recent skid caused a dip in his price. I don't think we have much to be concerned about, though. McCollum's had several games around a 40% FG%, down from his season mark of 48%, and all of his underlying stats remain solid. He's still shooting plenty and playing plenty of minutes - so I'd be happy to play him in cash games even if the match-up does limit his upside.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 35.07 DK - 38.19
Speaking of underperforming value guys whose price is fit to rise, I present to you one Klay Thompson. Like McCollum, he's shot terribly recently, and it's caused his price to fall. Unlike McCollum, this has come at a time where his overall opportunity has actually increased dramatically. With Durant sidelined for the time being, Thompson has shot 20+ shots in each of his last 3 games, and his ridiculous 8/33 from 3 point land has simply destroyed his value overall. If we assume he's at least the player he was last year (prior to Durant joining the team), this price is about 10% too low - we'll be buyers in the meantime in any game that rates to be close enough for him to play his minutes. The Hawks are a plus match-up here thanks to being both a reasonable team and a below average team against opposing shooting guards, making Thompson a high floor play with plenty of upside to go with it.
Also considered: Gary Harris, in spite of last game's no-show.
Keep an eye on the Gerald Henderson situation. If he sits, Nik Stauskas could be an elite play once again.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.74 DK - 30.71
Small forward just has a glut of mis-priced talent, but starting with Ross seems pretty straightforward. He's locked into a mid-30s rotation with the Magic, has destroyed these prices in 4 of his 5 games, and only seems to be earning more of his team's trust as time progresses. He's getting a little pricey on DraftKings, but on FanDuel his price has remained static for some reason. The Knicks have been a top ten match-up for opposing small forwards this season, but make no mistake about it - Ross is basically match-up proof on these FanDuel prices.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.38 DK - 35.57
Another guy who is to cheap for his current role, albeit for different reasons. Middleton has sort of a rotating minutes cap, playing more minutes when he's well rested, and fewer on the 2nd half of back to backs. Well, after a night off, we can expect him to play 33-35 minutes against the Sixers, and we can also expect that he'll likely play to a level that's worth about $1,000 more than his current FanDuel prices. I'd guess Middleton's floor was the 5x points per dollar performance that he chipped in against the Raptors on the 2nd half of a back to back, and if we are going to get him for 10%+ more minutes in a much better match-up against the Sixers, it's hard to imagine not including him in cash game lineups.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 23.5 DK - 24.89
But, hey, maybe Harkless could unseat him? Like Middleton and Ross, Harkless is priced to a totally different role than the one he current inhabits with his team. He's playing 34-38 minutes, and exploded for nearly 7x points per dollar against Brooklyn in just 30 minutes of playing time. Minnesota represents a tougher match-up here to be sure, but I suspect that Minny's more competent wing defenders will have their hands full with McCollum and Lillard, leaving Harkless free to do his thing from the perimeter. With a gun to my head I'd say I prefer the above guys, but wouldn't be surprised to see Harkless show up in winning lineups across multiple formats tonight.
If you want a more expensive option, Kawhi looks awfully attractive in a fast paced match-up with Houston. He's no stranger to playing big minutes in close games, and Houston is one of the few teams that could facilitate a competitive 4th quarter for Kawhi to thrive.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 29.55 DK - 31.82
Value, value everywhere! With Kaminsky likely out for this contest, it's very hard not to go back to the well on Marvin Williams. Lacking other suitable big man options, the Hornets felt compelled to trot Marv out there for 38 minutes against Denver, and Williams didn't disappoint. He put up 14/12/3 (35 fantasy points), en route to an appearance in big tournament winning lineups. And tonight? The match-up only gets better - the Pacers have allowed a top 5 fantasy point per game total to opposing power forwards this season. I love Williams in any kind of contest tonight assuming the Charlotte front court situation remains the same.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 27.42 DK - 28.78
Another fella who looks like a terrific play if the guys standing in front of him can't take the court, Gordon put up an easy 6x points per dollar against the Wizards on Sunday with Vucevic sidelined. It's not a direct 1-1 swap, of course. Biyombo is getting Vucevic's minutes at the 5. The thing with the Magic, though, is that they've left themselves perilously thin in terms of bigs, and without Ibaka or Vuc, they simply have to give Gordon solid minutes. The Knicks have been fairly bad against power forwards this season, but it's another case of a price/opportunity mismatch.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 36.19 DK - 38.9
If the situations change for either Marvin or Gordon, I could see going back to the Saric well, here. Okafor looks doubtful, and Saric managed to pay this price in spite of losing most of his minutes in a blowout to Detroit. With the Embiid-less Sixers a blowout is always in play, of course, but with little else to be excited about right now it's hard to imagine that they take Saric off the court more than they need to. The Bucks are also a little thin at power forward right now, particularly power forwards who can chase Saric out to the perimeter, so I think we could be in line for an excellent game here.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 29.37 DK - 30.76
Biyombo absolutely took over against the Wizards, putting up 10x points per dollar on his FanDuel price, putting together his classic package of rebounds and the occasional bucket in a tough match-up with Marcin Gortat. Well, today he gets a much better match-up against an undersized Knicks front-court, and you can bet your bottom dollar that he'll be the highest owned center if Vucevic misses this one as well. The only risk in playing Biyombo is foul trouble, and frankly, I'm more than comfortable taking that sort of risk.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 34.5 DK - 36.72
Nurkic is sort of a rich man's Biyombo. He brings more security to the table thanks to his secure role in Portland (no surprise injury news will unseat him), but he has the problem of having a decidedly worse match-up with Towns and the higher price tag to go with it. Still, Nurkic arguably has higher upside in terms of raw points, and given that it might be tough to spend up tonight with all of the excellent cheap plays, he's certainly a guy to keep on your radar for big tournaments.
A good pricey option: Listen, the above guys are excellent value plays, but if you just need to spend up somewhere I love Karl-Anthony Towns against a soft Portland front court. Still, it's going to be tough to pass up on Biyombo in particular if Vucevic is out.
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View Comments
I'm looking to buy a private island...HELP.... Thanks!!!
Oh mark, u silly rascal
Thinking of buying full access how consistent are the projections?