Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler (21) waits for a play to develop as he is guarded by New York Knicks' Arron Afflalo, right, during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015, in New York. New York defeated Chicago 107-91. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
Saturday night in the NBA. The Sixers host Detroit in a 6:00 start for the early only junkies, but the real fun begins with the 8:00 main slate where we have LeBron James taking his talent back down to South Beach. On to the picks!!
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 45.33 DK - 48.61
Damian Lillard gets us started tonight at the point. Portland welcomes the Nets to town tonight and we all know what that means. If you're new to this whole DFS thing, we like to target fast paced that are teams poor on defense and the Nets are among the fastest and the poorest. Portland on the other hand has won only 2 of their last 6 contests, and will come in riding high on the tail of a win against the Thunder Thursday night, a game in which Lillard scored 33 points going 11 of 23 from the field and 3 of 9 from beyond the arc. Round out the night with 4 rebounds 5 assists and a steal and we have Lillard paying value in his third straight game. The minutes are secure, the production has been consistent and the match up is phenomenal. Need I say more?
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.7 DK - 50.4
So, we now have CP3 with three games back from a lengthy absence and we see that so far, the shooting has not been pretty. He's only making 33.3% from the field to this point. Before you question his appearance here among these fine Saturday night picks, lets look at the match ups to date. His first game back was against San Antonio, the Spurs are the third toughest defense against opposing point guards and in 31 minutes Paul managed a mere 3.3X points per dollar. Next up, Charlotte a more average match up and even with his poor shooting Paul still managed a 5.5X performance and came a rebound shy or a triple double. Most recently, the Rockets, another top ten defense, and another sub-par performance. Tonight the Clippers head to Chicago and the Bulls are more on par with the Hornets of the world, allowing 3% more assists and 31% more blocks to opposing point guards. I like the pricing more on DraftKings by a mile, but feel the argument can be made on both sites for cash games.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 42.45 DK - 45.07
The Hornets have been in a downward spiral since January, most recently suffering a 17 point loss to Phoenix. They finally get Cody Zeller back in a limited capacity, and then lose Frank Kaminsky who was filling in beautifully for Zeller while he was out. Kemba Walker, for his part is doing all he can to hold his team together. He's out there every night running the boards for 34 minutes or more dropping around 30 points and picking up peripheral stats when he can. He's paid value at these prices in 5 of his last 7 games. Tonight the Hornets travel to Denver to face the Nuggets, a team almost on par with Brooklyn in just how poorly they defend the point guard spot. Vegas has this game with the second highest implied total of the evening (221) and with less risk of blowout than the Portland Brooklyn game which has the highest total so safety should be no concern. Walker presents some slight salary relief if you can't fit the two guys above together, and any combination of these three guys should work just fine.
If you need even more salary relief then strongly consider Malcolm Brogdon against the Raptors.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38.48 DK - 41.32
There isn't a whole lot to love at shooting guard tonight, Harden and the Freak both have less than ideal match ups that make spending up risky so these cheaper guys may still feel a little iffy but the value and the match ups help to off set each other. Here we have another pick against the hapless Nets. C.J. McCollum has cooled off a little in the second half of February but the price has dipped down along with the production. He actually hasn't even payed value at these prices in his last 5 games, though he hasn't been far off either. Tonight could be a perfect night for him and Lillard to pair off against a defense allowing 23.4 points and 6.5 assists per game to opposing guards this season. I'm fine with rolling the dice on McCollum in all formats.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 36.46 DK - 39.16
Nic Batum is another player who has struggled to pay value as of late, but who is also presented with an ideal match up tonight against the Nuggets. While our point guards above have been performing much better, stacking them with their shooting guards who may go under the radar thanks to recency bias could help make the difference in a tournament. Denver's allowing 9% more points and 13% more assists per game to opposing SG's. Batum has scored only 17 total points over his last two games, but scored at least 15 in 7 of the 8 games leading up to this current slump. If there is a night for him to shake it off and return to form, no better opponent than the Nuggets to do it against.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 27.74 DK - 29.33
On the other side of that Charlotte/Denver match up we find Gary Harris. Harris has been on quite the roll lately, He put up a career high 25 points against the Nets back on the 24th. While he has cooled down a bit since then he's still dropping double digit points per game, as well as contributing across the stat sheet. He's done all of this in an average of 33 minutes per game over his last 5 outings. Harris probably presents the most safety of the three guys against a Charlotte team that is in the bottom ten defensively at the position.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.88 DK - 43.81
In three of four games since the All Star break, Jimmy Butler has been the model of consistency. He's going at least 35 minutes with 18-22 points scored per game. He followed a triple double against the Cavs last Saturday with a forgettable 8/4/3 line against the Nuggets on Tuesday. Definitely an off night against a mediocre defense, but he bounced back nicely against Golden State Thursday night. He finished the night with 22 points 5 rebounds and 6 assists in 35 minutes. Tonight, the Clippers come to town, defensively, the Clippers are the seventh most generous to opposing small forwards in the league. Among the top pricing tier of players, Buckets is coming in on the cheaper end of the spectrum, has arguably the nicest match up, in a game with little to no blow out risk making him my cash game play of the day.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 48.95 DK - 52.19
LeBron is going back to Miami, but don't go burning your jerseys just yet, he's taking the Cavs with him to face off against the Heat. Last night the Cavs beat the Hawks in a 135-130 shoot out and LeBron exploded for 38 points in 39 minutes while snagging 13 boards and handing out 8 assists. This following Wednesday night against Boston when he picked up his seventh triple double of the season. Back in December when the Cavs hosted Miami, LeBron dropped 27 points, and had 8 rebounds and assists each in 37 minutes for 51.6 FanDuel points. Even at this price point, the King has paid value in 3 of his last 4 outings, and while I prefer the slight discount on DraftKings, I feel comfortable with him across the industry. Buckets is my guy for safety but you never know when LeBron is going to just completely go off and put on a shooting clinic which night in and out makes him an excellent tournament play.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 29.94 DK - 32.11
Kenneth Faried remains out and Wilson Chandler continues to run with the Denver starters. In three games Faried has missed Chandler is averaging 33.6 minutes per game. Chandler has scored double digit points in 11 straight games, going for at least 20 in two of his last 4. The Hornets are a league average defense allowing 4% more points and 13% more assists at the position. As long as Faried remains out look for Chandler to see added minutes and opportunity and continue to be an excellent value option. Since it may not be easy fitting Butler and James together in a line up, Chandler pairs nicely with either providing ample salary relief.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 26.02 DK - 28.03
This is purely speculative at this point. Milwaukee is on the tail end of a back to back after defeating the Clippers last night. The Bucks have been easing Middleton back from a lengthy absence due to a hamstring injury. Since returning he has played in 7 games, and started 2. His first start came against the Suns on Sunday, he then took the next night off against the Cavs. Wednesday he saw 31 minutes off the bench against the Nuggets returning 6X points per dollar, then he started against the Clippers last night putting up 8X points per dollar. They could very well rest Middleton again tonight, or at the very least monitor his minutes, possibly off the bench. If you think they start him and give him a reasonable allotment of minutes then he makes a phenomenal play against a Toronto defense allowing 2% more points 8% more assists and 5% more blocks to opposing small forwards.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 33.37 DK - 34.95
With word coming that Kyle Lowry is going to miss several weeks, newly acquired Serge Ibaka becomes the most desirable Raptor behind DeMar DeRozan. Tonight, DeMar will likely be dealing with the Greek Freak for much of the night which could open even more opportunity for Ibaka. The Bucks are among the bottom three teams at the position defensively and this game is nearly a pick'em with a mere 2 point spread. Ibaka's got 2 double doubles already in just 5 games as a Raptor, and I'm looking for his third tonight. A great cash game play with potential for 6X upside.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 26.22 DK - 27.42
Woof! After Ibaka, power forward becomes a real dog. To get away cheap and hopefully painlessly, consider Gorgui Dieng. Dieng has seen his minutes clipped in his last two outings. His performance during those games has been whatever less than less than stellar would be called, but with that, his price has taken a nose dive. Particularly on FanDuel where he's down $700. While he hasn't done much lately, he doesn't have to do much to reach value at this point anyway. Plus, if he does snap his slump tonight and in turn gains back those 10 or so minutes he has lost he could make a big difference in a large tournament. Definitely worth the risk, this is a guy who produced nearly 42 FanDuel points against the Rockets last Saturday.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 19.24 DK - 20.41
On the flip side of the drastic minutes adjustment we find Bobby Portis. He has seen an increase of nearly 15 minutes in his last two games, outplaying Nikola Mirotic. Thursday night against the Warriors Portis nabbed a double double with 17 points and 13 rebounds, while going 2-4 from beyond and 3-4 from the line. The question we need to ask is can we trust that? If you think the answer is yes than Portis is a tremendous value even against a tougher Clippers defense. If I had to choose I would take Portis in cash games and limit Dieng to tournaments. If you're feeling particularly gutsy, lock them both in to a tournament for some real boom or bust action.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.8 DK - 36.17
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 33.87 DK - 35.49
You didn't think we were going to leave you with only two Blazers against the Nets did you? Man, are they loving them some Nurkic in Portland. We've felt the same way in DFSLand since the trade from Denver. in 5 games with the Blazers Nurkic has paid value in all but one game, most recently going off against the Thunder to the tune of 8X points per dollar. On the other side of this match up we have BroLo. Brook Lopez went in to the All Star break with a stellar 36 point performance against the Bucks in which he paid 8X himself. Since the break he's been at a slow crawl to perform up to expectation, but flashed a return to form against the Kings on Wednesday when he scored 24 points, 8 rebounds and a block. As good as Nurkic has been with Portland, they've been average defensively at the 5 since bringing him on. Personally for the price I prefer Nurkic, but if you want a little separation I can see going BroLo in this one.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 40.39 DK - 41.92
Finally, we wrap things up with Marc Gasol. Gasol underwhelmed in Dallas last night providing a 13/6/4 line in 36 minutes. Prior to that he was going off at a pretty nice clip scoring at least 17 points in 5 of his last 7 games. Over his last 6 games he's been handing out an average of 6 assists per game and snagging 7.3 rebounds. Tonight Memphis heads in to Houston and Clint Capela and Nene should struggle defending against him. While I prefer Jokic here unless some earth shattering news comes across, Gasol is certainly a consideration if you want a different play and have the salary to spend at center.
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View Comments
After watching Chandler lock up ABC, I want no part of Batum.
Out of all the cab who is the best play.
Cavs
Would you rather have Lou Williams and nurik or Kyle korver and Marc gasol