Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
Big old Friday in the Association tonight with 10 games going. Of course we've got the Nets playing so we'll want to consider anyone lucky enough to take the court against them. Plus Westbrook against the Suns, Toronto without Lowry, and much more. Let's get to it.
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 63.45 DK - 67.98
I mean what explanation do we really need here? It’s a daily struggle to find new and “creative” ways to write up Mr. Trip Dubs and explain why he’s a solid cash game play. Tonight he plays a Phoenix squad playing the fourth fastest pace and fourth worst defense in the league. This is just about the perfect matchup to target Westbrook who has a crazy high floor and even at $13K is firmly in play and considered “safe”. With such a big slate there is typically enough marginal cheap plays to fill in the gaps throughout a lineup to justify paying the absurd cost. But if anyone can pay it, it’s Westbrook.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.73 DK - 36.79
He was a complete bottom feeder against the Timberwolves on Wednesday and was benched early because of the blowout. I suspect people look to that game (and the general feeling about Hill not being all that exciting a player) as a reason to not target him here. But this is the exact matchup we want to play a point guard (or really anyone) against the Nets.
They’re allowing about 7% more scoring and 8% more assists than league average against opposing point guards and Hill is coming at a fair mid range price considering his relative minutes floor and the opposition.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 31.83 DK - 34.27
While the Cavs are a solid defensive team all around, they do struggle against point guards mostly because of Kyrie Irving. They are allowing about 3% more scoring and 3% more assists to opposing point guards on the year. The concern, as always with Schroder is if Coach Bud will keep him in the same long enough to hit value. The Hawks have played in two blowouts in their last three, but the close one against the Mavs saw him run 33 minutes with a 17/6/2 line. His price has come down a bit because of the variable performances (including the one game suspension against the Heat last week) and that leaves him as a solid buy as long as the Hawks can keep this game close.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.92 DK - 29.38
Minutes are of course never safe on the Magic. But Fournier is one of the only guys who does actually see his run on a somewhat consistent basis. He’s solid for minutes in the mid-to-high 30’s though scoring is where his bread is buttered (to use that age old DFS jargon). This isn’t a fantastic matchup against a slower Heat team but the state of the Magic roster necessitates playing Fournier for large chunks because he can transition between the two and three depending on rotations. He’s been running real bad from three in the short term which has knocked his price down some because it’s effected the scoring. I see that more as a blip than a reality and do think we are buying low on the guy tonight.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 27.9 DK - 30.53
Shooting guard is pretty damn grizzly on this slate and really after Fournier there isn’t much I’m willing to trust. Booker does seem to have a higher minutes floor than most in this range, but much like Fournier, he needs to score to stay relevant at these prices. He's still not playing a ton of minutes which is a bit worrisome along those fronts, but this game has the highest total on the night (225) and looks like it should stay close (OKC -4.5). I don't mind Booker here considering you are getting him in the cheaper end of the middle tier.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 42.27 DK - 44.15
He represents a pretty massive overpay on FanDuel but I do think he’s a solid DraftKings play at these prices. Derozan sees a massive usage boost (about 10% in our system) with Lowry off the court. He’s taken 25 and 20 shots in the last two games and he’s scored 33 or more in four of the last five. The matchup against the Wizards isn’t ideal considering they are well above average defending the shooting guard position this season. But the DraftKings price puts Derozan firmly in play considering the shooting volume he’s likely to see in this game. Derozan, much like other shooting guards mentioned here, is a score first guy who needs to get the ball in the hoop early and often to eclipse value. But considering the Raptors are missing their best player, Demar should continue to see tons of looks from the field.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 40.62 DK - 42.83
The Jazz got smoked by the Timberwolves on Wednesday night and that cut into Hayward’s (and the rest of the starter’s) minutes in a serious way. Don’t expect the same tonight though I suppose we could see a blowout going the other direction. The Nets suck of course though this is a major pace up, defense down game for the Jazz and we are often targeting plays against Brooklyn. Hayward is helped if Rodney Hood sits again as the former sees a roughly 5% boost in usage with the latter off the court this season. The Nets are allowing about 11% more scoring than league average to opposing small forwards and just stink in general. Hayward is a solid play on both sites but I do like the slight discount on DraftKings.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 26.98 DK - 28.86
He was the overwhelming chalk on FanDuel the other night (somewhere in the 90% in cash games) and ended up with a disappointing 6/5/2 line in 37 minutes. I see this as an almost extreme outlier in what we can expect from Ross with this and of run. Since being traded to the Magic he’s averaging 35 minutes per game and a 14/5/2 line buoyed some by a great shooting game against the Hawks. For a team with serious rotational and minutes fluctuations, I do see Ross as a safer commodity in these price ranges. He needs to score to hit value, but the usage has been there. The ownership percentages will be lower tonight because of the poor performance on Wednesday, but that isn’t swaying me off of Ross too much.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 21.93 DK - 24.03
Though the Lakers are in full on tank mode (along with some other teams) Ingram is one guy they’ve been somewhat committed to playing actual minutes in the short term. He’s played 35 or more in three of the last five games and is averaging a respectable (though unspectacular) 10/4/2 in that time. That’s about enough to get him to value at his seriously depressed FanDuel price. It’s a little closer on DraftKings where I don’t see him as much as a value but Ingram has also been somewhat blowout proof in that time frame as well. If we are looking for court time safety in the under $4K range on FD then he should be a popular play.
Consider Khris Middleton but this isn’t an ideal matchup against the Clippers. Also consider TJ Warren against the Thunder.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.18 DK - 36.19
The major concern with Porzings in the short term is just how many minutes he’d see considering the injury issues that keep cropping up. But he played 33 last game (first one back from a two game absence) and rolled to a respectable 20/9/2 line. The Knicks need him to play more considering Noah’s out for the season and Wily Hernangomez is banged up and doubtful for this game. New York started Staps at the five against Orlando and that should be the case again tonight against a Philly team which has size issues without Embiid. I love the discount we are getting on him for both sites and even at minutes in the low thirties I see him as one of the best PF values on the slate.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 34.66 DK - 37.27
The Homie Dario took a night off from his sans-Embiid crushing tour mostly because the Sixers were crushed by the Heat. I don’t see that as much of an issue tonight against the Knicks who are having some organizational issues (to say the least). I suspect he gets back to the mid 30’s in terms of minutes and he’s been putting up insane lines over the short term. Outside of the Heat game he’s been basically a double-double on lock with scoring and rebounding and even getting into the assist game. The Knicks are allowing about 5% more scoring than league average to opposing power forwards this season and Saric’s price came down just a hair because of the rough game on Wednesday.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 32.93 DK - 34.53
He’s stepped into the Raptor uniform and been exactly what they needed when they traded for him. In the two games since Lowry went down he’s averaged 15 shots per game and has posted double digit rebounds in two of the last three games. He’s playing major minutes and I think at under $7K on both sites he fits a need for a PF position that’s often tough to trust anyone at any price. He posted a 22/12 just last game against this very same Wiz team. I’d put him below both Staps and Dario in the upside range considering they are all around the same price, but any combo of these three feels fine for cash games.
Consider Paul Millsap against the Cavs.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 36.66 DK - 38.43
Well, like I’ve said for the other Jazz guys (and what we’ve been preaching all year) is when you are in a matchup with the Nets then pretty much everyone becomes fantasy relevant. Brooklyn struggles to defend the center position (like every other position) and allows about 10% more scoring and 8% more rebounding than league average to the position. As long as the game is close then Gobert is nearly guaranteed a double-double in this matchup and of course adds the defense upside (with blocks) to the mix. Stacking Utah in cash today is a completely viable option considering the opponent and I see Hayward, Hill and Gobert as the backbone of that strategy.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.17 DK - 29.37
Joel Embiid is out for the rest of the year and Nerlens Noel’s been shipped off to Dallas. That (in theory) should leave a bunch of center minutes to Okafor. It just depends which guy we get. Is it the 28/10 game we saw against the Knicks or the 4/3 with 7 turnovers disaster against the Warriors? The 6/7/2/1 line against Miami feels like the baseline and I think it’s a good sign that he’s headed back to face the aforementioned Knicks tonight. New York doesn’t have much of anything in the way of size and I do think Okafor sees at least minutes in the mid-to-high 20’s which should be enough to make him a cash game play.
Consider Al Horford
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View Comments
Do we get Okafor or Chokafor???