Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - WGC Mexico Championship

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE. It is a link to a shared google sheet in "View Only" mode. It shows eery golfer and his DraftKings salary, Vegas odds, Official World Golf Ranking, raw stats, course history, current form, tournament past 4 years results(if applicable) and correlated stats. I also have weighted stats and weighted overall rankings. If you want to make your own model with the sheet go to "File" at the top and "Make a Copy". If you need help please reach out to me on Twitter or in the DFSR chatroom on Wednesday morning and evening.

 

WGC Mexico Championship

This week 77 invited players head South of the border for the World Golf Championship Mexico Championship. You may not recognize the name as it will be the first time since 2006 that the first WGC event of the calendar year won't be held at the Blue Monster at Trump National Doral. Could it be more ironic that the event was moved from one of POTUS, Donald Trump's most famous courses to Mexico? How many times do you think he or the Blue Monster will be mentioned this week? I am taking bets all week.

All political talk aside, we have a very interesting tournament to break down. First of all, we get an elite field that includes 49 of the world's Top 50 players. Jason Day withdrew early in the week. It will be Dustin Johnson's first start defending the #1 spot in the World Golf Rankings and it appears the trend of the elite players winning will continue this week. Since rookie John Rahm won the Farmers Insurance Open back at the end of January, we have seen wins from world #4 Hideki Matsuyama, #6 Jordan Spieth, now #1 Dustin Johson and #9 Rickie Fowler who won the Honda Classic this past weekend. The most interesting part about this week WGC event is the course which will be brand new for the players. Let's take a look at the specifics.

 

The Course

Club De Golf  Chapultepec - Naucalpan, Mexico
Par 71 - 7,330 Yards

*Click to enlarge*

The most interesting part about this week WGC event is the course which will be brand new for the players. There are also very few correlations due to the elevation at Naucalpan. It sits right around 7,500 feet above sea level, which in comparison is just under 2,000 feet higher than Denver, Colorado. Speaking of Colorado, I will be looking closely at the 2014 BMW Championship for correlation tied to altitude. With so many European Tour players in the field this week it also makes sense to take a peek at the past results from the Omega European Masters which is hosted at Golf Club Crans-sur-Sierre which is located in the Swiss Alps. Expect to see players gain 15-20 yards on their drives and force them to think a lot more when it comes to their approach shots as they will be clubbing down at least one more club than a regular round in USA.

Looking at scorecard we also notice that there are four Par 4's that are under 400 yards with another three coming in between 400 and 450 yards. There are three Par 5's, two of which are longer than 625 yards and the other at 575 yards. Those seem longer than average but the altitude makes them shorter than they appear. The Par 3's are pretty standard with two over 200 yards and two under 200 yards.

Outside of the tree-lined fairways, the course's biggest defense is the bunkering. There are fairway bunkers positioned in the landing areas as well as surrounding almost all of the greens(going off the course description on PGA Tour.com). The greens are a mix of Poa Annua and Bentgrass which will be bumpy and they are also described as be very undulating with a multi-tiered design on most of them.

The Stats

With so many European Tour players in the field this week I added the stats ranks from that tour and will be simplifying my model this week. With the altitude this week that will force a ton of "less than driver" off the tee shots, I will be weighing Driving Accuracy higher than Distance and following it up with a heavy weight on GIR and for the PGA Tour players I will also be looking at Proximity and Strokes Gained: Approach as it will be important to get the ball on the right tier to avoid a three-putt, especially on bumpy Poa greens. I will also be looking closely at SG: Off the Tee, Good Drive % and Birdie or Better % for those who qualify on the PGA Tour.

 

Fantasy Angle

With a no cut event, new course and record altitude for a PGA Tour event, I will be sticking to GPP's only this week. I will be max entering the $2 Chip Shot, $3 Hybrid,  and $5 Eagle as well as all the single entry contests I can get my hands on. I will concentrate on narrowing my focus to two or three golfers in each salary tier and building around those five or six players in the majority of my lineups. This gives me the best possible chance to hit the optimal lineup if my core players do well that week.

Besides the stats and current form, I will also be looking closely at salary differential from a player's season average as well as Vegas Odds to DarftKings differential. Both are available on the cheatsheet. Let's get into the picks.

 

 

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanSharSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". Don't set your lineups without checking it out!

 

High End Targets ($9,000+)

Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
Draftkings ($11,500)

I am going back to Spieth this week for a number of reasons. First of all, no matter what stat model I come up with he is right at the top of the rankings. Looking at the simplified stats that the European Tour uses combined with those of the PGA Tour, Spieth ranks Top 5 in the field in SG: APP, Good Drive %, GIR, GIR from 150-175 yards, Par 3, 4, and 5 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance and Birdie or Better %. Wow, that's elite! He is also having a fantastic year, getting back into the winners circle at Pebble Beach to go along with a three other Top 10's and his worst finish of the year, a T22 at the Genesis Open. Looking at one of the correlation events I mentioned above, Spieth finished T8 back in 2014 at the BMW Championship. Spieth also experienced sucess in teh WGC events last year with finishes of T17, T3 and T7. I fully expect to see his name on the leaderboard on Sunday witha shot at wining in Mexico.

 

 

Henrik Stenson
World Golf Ranking (#5)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($10,300)

Stenson ranks #1 in model, just ahead of Spieth but it was very close depending on what stats were used(PGA or Euro). He ranks #1 in Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation and is #3 in overall Scoring average. Henrik hasn't played a PGA Tour event(technically a world event ut it shows up on PGA Tour results) since the last WGC event in China back in October where he finished in a tie for second. Since then he has been playing on the European Tour and has been red hot with finishes of 8th, T9, T8 and most recently a runner-up at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. He has also scored 97 or more DraftKings points in each of his last three starts and most of all is a great value as the fifth-ranked golfer in salary.

 

 

Adam Scott
World Golf Ranking (#7)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)

From a salary trend perspective, Adam Scott is my favorite play in the top tier. His price dropped $3K from last and is $1,367 under his season average(since Tourny of Champions). It feels like he is on the cusp of winning with four finishes inside the Top 15 this season with his last win coming at this WGC event last season when it was sponsored by Cadillac and was at Trump's Blue Monster. Statistically, he fits the bill with Top 10 ranks in SG: OTT, SG: APP, Putting Average, Good Drive %, Scoring Average and Birdie or Better %. Building your core around Scott in the low $9K range creates an opportunity to build a very high upside and balanced lineup.

 

 

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Sergio Garcia
World Golf Ranking (#10)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($8,500)

Leading the way in the sub $9K range is Sergio Garcia who is also sporting a price over $1,000 less than his season average. That isn't the only thing to like about the Spanish star as he is the only golfer over $8K on DraftKings that ranks Top 15 in both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy. He also ranks Top 20 in SG: OTT, GIR, Good Drive %, Par 5 Scoring, Scoring Average, and Bogey Avoidance. He has been trending in the right direction since the lastWGC event in China where he finished T9. He finished T19 at the DP World Challenge in November and followed that up with a win at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic in January. He struggled a bit when he returned to the USA with a T49 at the Genesis Open but rebounded nicely at the Honda last week with a T14. Another excellent option if you are running a balanced lineup.

 

 

Bill Haas
World Golf Ranking (#42)
Vegas Odds (70/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)

Next up in the middle tier, we dive right to the bottom where Bill Haas ranks #3 overall in my initial model. He hasn't won a tournament since the 2015 Humana Challenge but has been extremely consistent missing just 10 cuts in 49 official events since that last win.  Looking at just this season he has recorded a Top 20 in all six of his tournaments. While he ranks outside the Top 20 in SG: OTT and APP he is Top 10 in SG: ATG, SG: Putting, Par 3 and 4 scoring, Bogey Avoidance and is #1 in Scrambling. Don't overlook hi at just $7,000 this week. He may not win but we will take a Top 20 finish in DK points all day long.

 

 

Bernd Wiesberger
World Golf Ranking (#36)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)

I am absolutely in love with the European Tour value this week and it starts with Wiesberger in the low $7K range. He ranks #7 on my model which has a ton to do with his recent form. Coming into this week, on the European Tour, he has recorded finishes of 3rd, T32, T37, T4, T4 and 4th since the start of November. Statistically, he ranks inside the Top 20 with a nice Total Driving combination and 3rd rank in the field in GIR %. He makes a terrific projected ownership pivot off of Louis Oosthuisen at $7,200 who is being mentioned a lot this week with his reduced price.

 

 

 

 

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Danny Willett
World Golf Ranking (#14)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($6,700)

In looking at the correlation of the Omega Masters, there has been no one in this field better than Willet at Gold Club Crans-Sur-Sierre. He has played the event in each of the last four years with finishes of T12, win, T5 and T26. He is definitely going to be a GPP only play as he hasn't been very consistent lately with a missed cut at last week's Honda Classic after falling short at the Maybank Championship(Euro Tour) with a T5 after a final round 73. Willett also had a tremendous 2016 season that started with a two World Golf Championship T3's followed by a Green Jacket in April. I mean, how can you not play a major winner for under $7K?

 

 

Joost Luiten
World Golf Ranking (#66)
Vegas Odds (175/1)
Draftkings ($6,800)

One more European Tour player to cap off the article. The big hype in the lower tier this week is Johnny Vegas and don't get me wrong he deserves it with his recent form.  My thought is that we can gain a big ownership advantage with Luiten in GPP's and he comes in with very similar form. His last six finishes including the WGC HSBC Champions looks like this. T23, T21, T29, T13, T14, T16. Looking at his stats, he ranks 17th in the field in Driving Accuracy, 8th in GIR and 27th in Scoring Average and 21st in Sand Save %.  In a smaller field, we will need to get lucky to take down a GPP and it helps if we can find a few players who are going to be low owned. According to FanShareSports "most Tagged" list, Luiten provides just that.

 

 

 

Also Consider: Chris Wood

 

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

WGC Mexico Championship Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

**Tee Times**

 

 

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.