Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/24/16

Well we are clear from the trade deadline and I have to say it was just a little bit underwhelming. Sure, I wanted to see another big name like Buckets or PG move, but alas we are left with the Bojan's and P.J.'s of the world changing locations.

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Point Guards

Russell Westbrook FD - $12700 DK - $13000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 62 DK - 66.45
Back from the All-Star, still the same old Russ. The Thunder made a couple of non-insignificant moves at the deadlines losing Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow and King Joffrey in exchange for Taj Gibson and Dougie McDermott. While it likely helps them as a squad, I don’t think it impacts Westbrook’s fantasy output at all. He’s still the triple-double machine and tonight faces a Lakers’ squad ranked seventh in overall pace and second to last in defensive efficiency. Because there are more than a few cheaper options available because of yesterday’s player movement, fitting Russ’s salary shouldn’t be all that difficult and we’ll want to pay up for a guy who went into the ASB averaging a cool 31/11/10. Not bad.

Mike Conley FD - $7500 DK - $7500
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 36.64 DK - 38.97
This is an interesting night in the NBA for DFS purposes considering we have a lot of good defenses (Utah, Memphis, San Antonio, Atlanta) playing which effectively eliminates much of the player pool we’d want to consider. In close games we do see Conley play mid 30’s minutes and he’s been solid in the scoring department for a Grizzlies team in a seemingly constant state of flux with minutes and injury issues. Conley isn’t an exciting play by any stretch of the imagination but he’s a solid upper-middl-tier play against a very average defensive team in the Pacers.

George Hill FD - $5900 DK - $6100
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 28.54 DK - 30.4
I know you don’t want to see a name like George Hill on your daily plays list. I get it. Save the comments. But Hill is one of those guys who, while uninspiring and not exactly exciting, does get the job done in close games. He’ll see minutes in the mid 30’s and is good for mid-to-low teens shot attempts if he’s on the court. Hill is a score-first point guard who’s shooting close to 40% from three on the season. He rounds out as a price play on the expected minutes and should be out there in a close game.

Shooting Guards

DeMar DeRozan FD - $8100 DK - $7800
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 42.01 DK - 43.73
Derozan was straight up awful leading into the All-Star Break shooting a combined 10-38 over his last two games and even enduring a curious crunch time benching against the Hornets on the 24th. That could have just been a streaky thing and I’m willing to chalk up the shooting just to a little run bad. It’s led to a slight price dip on Demar and I’m looking for a bounce back game against the Celtics tonight. We will for sure get separation on this play because of the recent performance though there is some concern that the addition of Ibaka eats in a bit to his usage. I’m
Oladipo

Victor Oladipo FD - $6000 DK - $6500
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.47 DK - 31.26
This one is all about the matchup. Like I said with Westbrook, the Lakers are close to the dream situation we are looking for when targeting DFS plays. They play fast and loose on defense and don’t have much in the way of stopping opposing offenses. Oladipo needs to score to hit value at these prices, but his minutes are running in the upper 30’s. He’s helped some by the Thunder losing both Payne and Morrow yesterday at the trade deadline (and I think it’s a little early to see McDermott) and Dipo should see plenty of shots against this defense. Again, with so many very good defensive teams on the slate and with the trade deadline throwing other teams into flux I think paying for the safety of Oladipo’s minutes against this team is totally fine.

Brad Beal FD - $7100 DK - $7100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.28 DK - 37.06
A lot like Oladipo we are paying for the safety in Beal’s minutes. Philly isn’t quite the matchup the Lakers are but they are still below average against shooting guards on the season. Beal is seeing plenty of run in the short term with the Wiz much more committed to playing their starters the lion share of the game because the bench is a total and complete mess. Sure they are made better having Bojan, but it’s unclear if the latter will get any run tonight. Beal’s averaging 36 minutes per game over the last five and putting up 17 shots per games. He’s also getting the line a bunch (8.4 attempts per game) and he needs to score to hit these prices.

Small Forwards

Gordon Hayward FD - $7800 DK - $7300
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 37.92 DK - 40.31
Small forward is very thin tonight (at least at the time of this writing) and this is the position that likely presents the biggest issue when making lineups. Even with the Jazz getting healthier as a unit, Hayward is seeing plenty of minutes over his last ten games is averaging right around 18 looks per game from the field. Scoring is the key for him as he isn’t a huge contributor across the box score (relative to his price). This isn’t an ideal matchup against the Bucks, but like I said, the position is very thin. I like the price a bit more on DraftKings and am counting on him playing minutes in the high thirties.

T.J. Warren FD - $5000 DK - $4600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 23.07 DK - 24.12
It’s never easy to trust the Suns’ minutes because even the starters aren’t safe for this organization. But yesterday they shipped off P.J. Tucker to the Raptors and that should (in theory) open up a bunch of minutes for Warren who did see his run buzzed by Tucker coming in off the bench. Warren is still coming in the lower middle tier for a guy who could return to some of his mid 30’s minutes ways and there was a time this season when he was one of the highest usage guys on the Suns. I don’t think he gets all the way back there, but Tucker leaving does have me thinking about Warren as a speculative play at a short position.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson FD - $4500 DK - $5000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 20.99 DK - 22.06
Again, this speculative but that’s what we need to do after the trade deadline. The Nets traded away Bojan Bogdanovic to the Wizards yesterday and he was one of the few guys who actually saw steady(ish) minutes for Brooklyn. The Nets, across the board, see usage bumps when Bojan is gone and RHJ was already in the starting lineup before that move. Again, he and the Nets all suck so I don’t throw this play out there with any great confidence. But in the old “someone’s got to play” camp Hollis-Jefferson should be able to creep towards value if he can see minutes just in the high 20s. He’s a much better deal on FanDuel where you are forced to start two small forwards on a day I don’t even want to start one.

Power Forwards

Dario Saric FD - $6200 DK - $6400
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 27.42 DK - 30.04
With Joel Embiid still sitting and Ersan Ilyasova and Nerlens Noel both traded at the deadline, there should be plenty of minutes for Saric at the four for the Sixers. He went into the All-Star Break as the human representation of a fire emoji with his last five games seeing him averaging a 21/7/2 in 28 minutes and shooting shooting 37% from three. Those minutes seem like the absolute floor for him considering Philly shipped off a ton of big man minutes. The problem with Saric is he saw a dramatic price increase because of the recent short term play which could cap his upside. But it’s also reasonable to assume he plays solid low 30’s minutes as an excellent mid tier play. He sees a solid usage bump when guys like Ersan and Embiid are off the court and he could be primed to take over lead scoring duties for the Sixers in the short term.

Bobby Portis FD - $4200 DK - $5000
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 20.77 DK - 22.11
Before the break we saw a Bulls team starting to trust Portis with more minutes. In two of the last three games he’s played 26 or more minutes and in those affairs averaged a 17/7. Then yesterday the Bulls traded away Taj Gibson, one of the few guys blocking Bobby from seeing more run in rotations. There’s some speculation Portis takes over the starting position and if nothing else he stands to see significantly increased minutes. I’m happy to grab him at near-punt salaries at a notoriously thin power forward position. Plus he gets a solid matchup against the fast-paced Suns team and we have all the makings of a high floor cheap play.

Nikola Jokic FD - $10900 DK - $10800
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 48.24 DK - 50.7
He’s expensive but this is the Brooklyn Nets we’re talking about here. Jokic is there very definition of a points per minute beast with the only risk being the actual minutes he’s on the floor. That’s what makes these salaries (even with his skill set) very risky even in a dream matchup. Of course if he saw a steady diet of high 30’s run then I’d consider this a no-brainer, but that’s simply not the case. And in that lies the risk. But when he plays he’s among the best in the league, a player who can literally do it all from a fantasy perspective. The Nets are the best DFS matchup in the league (along with the Lakers) and paying for Jokic is very much in play.

Strongly consider Julius Randle
 

Centers

Marcin Gortat FD - $6800 DK - $6400
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.19 DK - 35.64
There are a couple of things working in Gortat’s favor here. The Sixers will be without both Embiid and Noel, leaving precious little in the way of center defense for Philly (lol, Okafor). He should be able to work the glass for the Wiz in this matchup. Plus, the Wiz have been much more inclined to play their starters major minutes because, you know, the bench sucks. Seven of his last ten games have seen Marcin with double digit rebounds and he’s averaged a 14/11 in his last five games. A double-double is clearly in the works for this game considering the lack of size on the Philly frontcourt.

Steven Adams FD - $6000 DK - $6400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.45 DK - 35.96
Again, the Lakers and all. Adams is a candidate to play big minutes in close games though this might not be exactly that kind of scenario. The Lakers are allowing 5% more scoring and 4% more rebounding than league average to opposing centers mostly because they’ve been running out some combo of Mozgov/ Black/ Zubac and some other losers over the course of the season. Those aren’t exactly defensive stalwarts and Adams is in a good spot. He does need all of the minutes though because he’s not exactly a focal point of the offense.

Strongly consider Mason Plumee

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