Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings - Genesis Open

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can grab a copy HERE. It is a link to a shared google sheet in "View Only" mode. It shows eery golfer and his DraftKings salary, Vegas odds, Official World Golf Ranking, raw stats, course history, current form, tournament past 4 years results(if applicable) and correlated stats. I also have weighted stats and weighted overall rankings. If you want to make your own model with the sheet go to "File" at the top and "Make a Copy". If you need help please reach out to me on Twitter or in the DFSR chatroom on Wednesday morning and evening.

If you are looking for a breakdown of last week's tournament, be sure to check out Chris's BLOG where he shares insight from his trends sheet. Let's get into the tournament at hand.

Genesis Open

Congratulations! That is for all of you who made it through the first quarter of the PGA Tour season(including wrap-around portion). We have seen a little bit of everything so far like Justin Thomas winning three times including a Hawaii sweep. We also saw two rookies(Cody Gribble & John Rahm) get their first wins, a 23-year veteran(Rod Pampling) get his first win in 11 years and two other players (Pat Perez & Brendan Steele) getting their first wins in 5+ years. And most recently, we have seen the #5(Hideki Matsuyama) and #6(Jordan Spieth) players in the world win the last two tournaments.

Oh Canada!

As a Canadian, I would be making a huge mistake not mentioning the plethora of talent coming from North of the border and their early 2017 success.  It starts with Mackenzie Hughes who, in his rookie season, has already picked up his first win(RSM Classic) and has made eight of 10 cuts with two Top 10's and four Top 25's. Adam Hadwin came oh so close to his first career win in his third full season tour after becoming the first ever Canadian on Tour and only the 9th ever to shoot a sub 60 round of golf. He has made seven of eight cuts with a runner-up and four Top 25 finishes. Then there is Weyburn, Saskatchewan's own Graham DeLaet who will alway be up and down due to his lower rank in putting but has already carded two Top 10 finishes this season. It's been exciting to watch and listen to the buzz all around the country, especially with snow on the ground in the middle of hockey season.  Keep it up boys!

With that, we move on to the Genesis Open(formerly known as the Northern Trust Open). We easily have the best field of the season thus far with eight of the Top 10 and  17 of the Top 25 players in the world including #6 Jordan Spieth and #9 Sergio Garcia coming off wins last weekend. The defending champion is Bubba Watson who has actually won this event with a winning score of -15 in two of the last three years. Those are easily the highest winning scores over the last five years with an average right around -10. Before jumping into my top stats and fantasy angle for this week, let's take a look at the course.

The Course

Riviera Country Club - Pacific Palisades, CA
Par 71 - 7,322 Yards
Greens - POA Annua

*Click to enlarge*

Riviera is considered one of the most challenging and rewarding tests on Tour. It forces players to make some crucial decisions of when to be aggressive and when to lay back and take what the situation calls for. One of these holes is the 315 yard driveable Par 4, 10th hole. Most guys can amp it up and go for the green but if not accurate can easily turn a birdie opportunity into a bogey or worse. Then there is the 199 yard Par 3, 6th hole with its famous bunker right in the middle of the green. You can bet we will see a player or two chipping off the green to get over. Two of the other Par 3's are 192 and 166 yards(pretty standard) but the Par 3,  4th hole is a monster at 236 yards. Riviera is not without its scoring opportunities it begins with a shorter 503 yard Par 5 which should be reachable for the entire field. The other two Par 5's come on the back nine and come between 580 and 590 yards. They are reachable by the long hitters but both are very scoreable. Looking at the last three year's results, at least 38% of all birdies are scored on these three Par 5's so expect that to be a top stat below. Speaking of the stats let's take a look.

The Stats

• Par 5 Scoring/Birdie or Better %
• Par 4 Scoring/Bogey Avoidance
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Driving Distance/Good Drive %

Because of what I mentioned about the Par 5 Scoring above it will be my top weighted stat this week with Birdie or Better percentage as both will correlate very highly with DraftKings scoring. Par 4 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance will also be important this week and I look at them together as par will be a great score on these holes this week. I am also looking closely at Bogey Avoidance and a touch of Scrambling as the greens are smaller than average and the weather is expected to be ugly on Friday and Saturday(weather update below). Strokes Gained: Approach is also a staple in my model this week with the smaller greens and fewer than normal birdie opportunities. I also will be weighing Driving Distance high as the fairways are tough to hit(around 50-55%) meaning the longer hitters will have shorter irons on their approach shots from the rough. Combine this with guys who rank high in Good Drive% and you should have a recipe for some added birdie opportunities.

**These are subject to change leading up lineup lock.**

Fantasy Angle

Thankfully we are done with the multi-course rotations but unfortunately, we are nowhere near done with mother nature. Looking at the weather update at the bottom of the article, the golfers are in for a very windy and rainy Friday(cut day) which could force some delays. This unpredictability has me playing more GPP's than usual with my cash game exposure coming in the form of head to heads. Why? If things don't go right in 50/50's or double ups you are done but in head to heads you still have an opportunity on the off weeks to bring back some of the bankroll if you are playing multiple head to heads instead. What I will normally do is play 10 $5 head to heads rather than 10 $5 double up entries or two $25 double up entries.

It also appears DraftKings has adopted a new major like salary structure, which is fine by me. It makes playing cash games tougher as we have seen guys in the 70-80% ownership range for double ups which, in my opinion, is even more reason to play head to heads. For tournaments, I feel you just have to analyze all the information that we look at for ownership and make some pivots off the projected high owned players in the same range. This is the best way to be contrarian. Now, you don't have to go contrarian with every pick but two or three pivots can really separate you from the field if the chalk plays miss the cut. An example of this is the Bubba Watson who comes with a very intriguing mid $8K price tag and has won this event two of the last three years. He is most likely going to command 25% or more ownership in GPP's and the form isn't exactly there so pivoting to someone else in the $8K range is an optimal play.

Another note when looking at ownership, don't be scared of the high ownership projections in the top tier, especially on weeks where there are multiple elite players. I will touch on this with my first pick below.

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanSharSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". Don't set your lineups without checking it out!

High End Targets ($9,000+)

Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#3)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
Draftkings ($11,400)

He has been, by far, the most tagged golfer on FanShareSports and will most likely command Top 3 ownership(30%+) this week. This is one player I am not worried about ownership at all. I will differentiate elsewhere. DJ has been so close to winning this event multiple times and it feels like it is just a matter of time. Playing here nine times in his career, he has made seven cuts including six Top 10's and four Top 5 finishes in his last five trips. He has nearly perfected the power fade without really giving up too much distance(ranks #2 in field in Driv Dist on my sheet) and has an 85.8%(weighted '16/'17) Good Drive %. To top it off he has been a master around the greens(7th in SG:ATG in field) which is going to come into play this week. After unexpectedly missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, he bounced back with a T6 last week. The good news for DFS is he was tied for 3rd in Birdies(21) and was ranked 4th overall in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.

Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
Draftkings ($12,600)

I have been riding the Spieth train all season and now that he has got the win, I find myself wanting to stay on board. I mean, he looks absolutely locked in right now as he lead the field in Birdies(21), Bogeys(just 4) and he was absolute money on the greens. The biggest reason, in my opinion, why he has gotten back to his 2015 ish form has been the approach shots. During his five-win(Two Majors) 2015 season, Jordan was ranked 11th in SG: APP, then fell to 87th last season and is currently ranked 4th going into this week. Even more impressive is that he is hitting all those greens while hitting just 60-65% of fairways(ranked 5th in Good Drive % on sheet). He missed the cut here last year but finished 4th in 2015 and 12th in 2014 for course history is not an issue. With a price increase of $600 after the win, there is a chance he may fall outside the Top 10 in ownership once again. If this continues to be the case, I will be rostering him every time out.

Jason Day
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)

For my final top tier pick, I am going to go a bit contrarian. I say contrarian as I feel course history is going to be a factored heavily across the industry which should most likely push Day down the list, at least in my model it did. I am not too worried about his course history here as he hasn't played Riviera in five years and is a totally different player now. Last week was a terrific sign of good things coming for Day as he definitely did not have his best game at Pebble(it showed on Saturday with a 75) but tied with Spieth with the most birdies(23) in the field and finished Sunday gaining close to 1.5 strokes to the field putting which is much more like his 2016 form. Anytime you can get the #1 player in world with a $1600 price decrease and projected lower ownership(in the top tier at least) you have to consider it in tournaments.

Mid Tier Targets ($7,000 - $8,900)

Justin Rose
World Golf Ranking (#12)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)

He was the highest owned player last week and seen a $800 price decrease but I have a feeling he will be a lot less owned this week. He disappointed for the most part at Pebble Beach finishing with a T39 and ranked 43rd overall in DraftKings points. Combine that with two-time winner Bubba Watson coming at $100 less and there is your reason for the lower ownership. The good news for those using him is that he has decent form here, making nine of 10 cuts in his career including a T16 last season. Statistically, he fits my model almost perfectly with field rankings of 11th in BoB%, 19th in Par 5 Scoring, 13th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in GIR% from 200+, 12th in Driving Distance and 10th in SG: ATG. Don't let the below average performance last week cloud the fact you are getting a near elite player at a big discount.

GPP Pivot: Paul Casey

Ryan Moore
World Golf Ranking (#30)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($7,300)

For the next two mid-tier picks I will dip down into the low $7K range where there is a ton of value this week. It starts with Ryan Moore who picked up a Top 10 here last season and has made eight of 10 cuts in his career. Even though he ranks 84th on my sheet in Driving Distance, he comes in 16th overall in the weighted stats due to his elite long iron play, Top 20 rank in SG: APP and Top 30 ranks in Par 4 & 5 Scoring, BoB%, Bogey Avoidance and Total Driving. From an ownership perspective, I feel he isn't going to be too popular as his most recent T61 result at the Waste Management Open should still be fresh in people's minds. To confirm these thoughts, I took a look at FanShare sports most tagged in the $6K/$7K range and he was tied for 25th most tagged. He is averaging 26% in his two events played in 2017 and should come in well under that at Riviera. He is safe in all formats.

GPP Pivot: Branden Grace

Brendan Steele
World Golf Ranking (#54)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)

Steele is going to be much more chalky than Moore if you are going not only by most tagged but also by recent form, course history, and stats. That's right Steele checks absolutely every box this week.  He picked up his first win nearly six years at the Safeway Open and has been feeding off that all year with six straight cuts made since including two Top 10's and no finish worse than T31. That in itself is enough to get him in your lineups. He has played Riviera six times, missing the cut in his first attempt back in 2011 but has made every cut since with two Top 15's in the last three years. Then there is the stats where he is ranked 8th on the sheet in SG: APP, 22nd in Driving Distance, 12th in Good Drive %, 18th in BoB%, 18th in Par 4 Scoring and to top it off 6th in Par 5 Scoring. He is also safe in all formats this week.

GPP Pivot: Harold Varner III

Low End Target (Min Price - $6,900)

Adam Hadwin
World Golf Ranking (106th)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($6,600)

When digging into the bottom tier guys, which will play a huge part in my stars and scrubs lineups, I always start by looking for mistakes in pricing compared to Vegas odds. The first guy that stood out was Canadian Adam Hadwin who ranks 99th in DraftKings salary while ranking 33rd in Vegas Odds to win outright. That is the biggest differential in the field this week(+66). I could stop there but digging even deeper there is a reason he ranks #10 overall in my model. That has to do with the incredible 2017 form combined with excellent course history(T16, T22). Oh Canada!

Luke List
World Golf Ranking (185th)
Vegas Odds (225/1)
Draftkings ($6,400)

After an incredible early season run, that saw List make seven straight cuts, he has fallen off a cliff but luckily so has his ownership. It has been the flip-flop effect as he was 2% owned at the Sony where he finished 13th and then seen a huge bump to 30% followed by a big drop to below 2% at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. While I don't think he will be that low owned, I don't see him over 5% this week making him an excellent GPP target. Statistically, he fits the bill ranking Top 20 in SG: T2G and BoB%, 1st in Driving Distance and 5th in Par 5 Scoring Average. He also impressed in his first trip to Riviera last season with  T20 finish.

Also Consider: K.J. Choi(Min Price + Course History)

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

Waste Management Phoenix Open Update Thread

**Weather Update**

• Also calling for 15-25 mph winds on Saturday throughout the entire day.
• All three other days calling for just 5-8 mph winds

**Tee Times**

Genesis Open Tee Times

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.