Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/10/17

Coming off the Cavs' "The Big Guys are Sitting, no wait they're playing, no wait wait they're sitting, oh ok, they're all playing" debacle from last night, let's pray for some sanity on this big Friday in the NBA.

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Point Guards

John Wall FD - $10500 DK - $10400
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 48.67 DK - 51.85
The Wiz have finally come around to the realization that their best path to victory each night is to play the starters insane minutes in an effort to ensure their putrid bench doesn’t see the light of day. It’s worked and they’ve won 13 of their last 15 games which also included a brutal overtime loss to the Cavs two games ago. Sure, the schedule’s been on the easier side but it also coincides with Wall and the rest of the starters getting a lion’s share of the run. He’s in another good matchup tonight against the Pacers who allow well above average assists to opposing point guards thanks in some part to ones getting easier to the rim around the perimeter defense. Wall’s getting expensive but his implied minutes and ability to score and dish give him a fantastic floor in what should be a close game.

Jrue Holiday FD - $7900 DK - $7800
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 37.71 DK - 40.66
Though this is still very much Anthony Davis’ team, Holiday is second in usage among the starters and has dramatically increased his shots per game over the short term. Over his last five games he’s averaging close to 18 looks from the field and putting up a 22/6/6 line in that time. Those are borderline elite numbers especially when you add in some of his defensive stats. He isn’t coming cheap, but I do think the production is sustainable as the Pels continue to increase his minutes. The T-Wolves are a bottom third defensive efficiency squad though are about league average against the opposing point guard. Even with the price increase on Holiday I’m fine buying here as long as we trust the minutes and usage aren’t short term outliers.

Goran Dragic FD - $8100 DK - $7900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.93 DK - 40.26
I like Dragic more here if Dion Waiters were to sit again. I think that’s a real possibility though I’d be comfortable playing the Dragon either way simply because the Nets have trouble stopping anyone, at any time, on defense. They’ve allowed roughly 8% more scoring and 10% more assists than league average to opposing point guards and nothing about their current makeup suggests it’s going to get better anytime soon. Dragic isn’t as steady as you’d like at these current prices even with the juicy matchup, but the latter does give him a higher projected floor. He needs to put up mid-to-upper teens shots while also padding the assist numbers in what is definitely a pace up game for the Heat.

Shooting Guards

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $10800 DK - $10800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 50.98 DK - 53.25
Completely brutal news out of Milwaukee yesterday with the team losing Jabari Parker for the year to a torn ACL. Devastating for both him and a team that was just getting Khris Middleton back. Though the Bucks have struggled this season, getting healthier had things looking up. For DFS purposes though this likely does shift even more of the offensive burden to Giannis. He and Parker were basically tied in shot attempts per game at 16 and no one else is even that close. ABC sees a usage bump with Parker off the court (5% when regressed for time they also spent together) and I suspect we could even see more minutes out of Giannis. He has a dream matchup against the Lakers who play at a top 10 pace and rank dead last in defensive efficiency. Hard to pass up Giannis in this spot and I suspect he’s somewhat of a chalk play considering the opponent and the void Parker’s absence leaves for the Bucks.

Gary Harris FD - $5100 DK - $5000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.18 DK - 29.82
Will Barton FD - $5800 DK - $6100
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.81 DK - 32.95
The last two games have seen the Nuggets basically play without Kenneth Faried (he sat one and was injured early in the other) and then opt to go with a small ball lineup that included Will Barton. I suspect they do the same tonight against as the Knicks don’t require you put a bunch of big bodies on the floor. I suspect we see bigger minutes out of both Barton and Harris with the former coming at a great deal if you think the usage over the last two games is a real thing. He’s averaging 19 shots and a 24/8/6 line in that time which could continue considering the Nuggets will be playing this one without Gallo and Faried. Mudiay might be back which could bite into some of the back court minutes, but not a ton. I like both of these guys against a Knicks team getting roasted by opposing wings.

Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $5600 DK - $5700
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.75 DK - 29.75
It looks like Thabo Sefoloshais out again tonight. He’s sat out the last six games with Hardaway drawing the starts in his stead. It’s hard to average out the latter’s fantasy production in that time considering one game was a 58 minute, 4OT game against the Knicks and another a total 4th quarter heat check game against the Rockets. But Hardaway’s been a steady source of fantasy production and does add a desperately needed scorer to the Hawk starting five. He’s getting up threes and his mid-tier pricing is helpful on bigger slates when you can’t always go full stars and scrubs.

Small Forwards

Wilson Chandler FD - $6700 DK - $7100
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 33.31 DK - 35.62
Outside of the blowout against the Spurs, Chandler’s played in 36 or more minutes in three games since Gallinari went down with injury. In two of them he played over 40. He’s such a bigger part of the team with Gallo out of the picture and is contributing all the way across the stat line. He’s rebounding well with at least 8 boards in three of his last four while also contributing on the defensive end. The Knicks struggle with this specific type of player and Chandler’s in line for big minutes once again. While he’s seen a significant price uptick thanks to the new opportunity I still think he’s cash game viable because of Mike Malone’s willingness to give him elite run in close games.

Carmelo Anthony FD - $8100 DK - $7700
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 36.58 DK - 38.56
I’m much more interested in Melo on DraftKings where he’s still coming at a decent discount against a Denver team only slightly above average against SF/PF types like Anthony. Dude’s still jacking up a ton of shots with at least 20 looks in three of his last four games. The rebounding and assist numbers are down over last season though that’s reflected in his price. Again, I’m more interested in playing him at a slight discount on DK especially considering he’s multi-position eligible over there. With the Nuggets still without Gallo and likely going even smaller than usual tonight Melo’s in a fine spot to hit value.

Rodney McGruder FD - $3800 DK - $3900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 19.13 DK - 20.73
He’s really only in play if Dion Waiters were to sit again tonight but if that’s the case then you can play McGruder on the cheap. The Nets are obviously brutal on defense and Rodney’s played 39 and 36 minutes in the last two games. He’s averaging a 12/6/4 in that time which is more than enough to pay his near min-level prices. He needs all the minutes he can get considering he’s the fourth or fifth option on offense but he should be able to pay value in this game if the Heat need to run him major minutes without Waiters.

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis FD - $10900 DK - $10100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 51.31 DK - 53.44
I suppose there could be some debate about who to play at the power forward position in this price range: Davis or Jokic. While I think the Joker presents more per minute upside than Brow, it’s very tough to trust Jokic’s minutes (which is really saying something as compared to Davis who gets pulled from games for just about any reason). But Davis gets a solid matchup against the T-Wolves who allows big men to score at more than a league average clip and Davis has seen something in the way of a price dip in the short term (especially on DraftKings). There’s always the injury risk for Davis but I do

Kristaps Porzingis FD - $6800 DK - $6900
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 32.26 DK - 34.19
Foul trouble has really bit the Zinger in the short term with the dude racking up 5 fouls in three of his last four games. Each of those times it’s led to a reduction in minutes. When he stayed out of the hacking zone he played 33 minutes in a blowout loss to the Lakers. I’m willing to roll the dice and trust he can stay away from the fouls here against the Nuggets. The recent struggle with minutes security has led to reduced prices and when we can get him under 7K I think he presents a great deal of upside. Look, I understand it hasn’t all been great in the short term for Staps, but there’s some contextual reasoning why the game log looks below average. Let’s buy low on the guy in a good matchup against Denver.

Paul Millsap FD - $7800 DK - $7600
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 38.4 DK - 40.6
It never feels good rostering Millsap mostly because there are times you will watch the Hawks and (from a fantasy perspective) it’s like the dude’s not even on the court. But that keeps the price on the lower end and he has an ok matchup here against the Kings. I suspect he’s tasked with guarding Boogie (never a good thing) but should be able to work on the offensive end and on the glass. The Kings are decent against power forwards this season mostly because of their slow pace and not because the defense is especially good. I do like Millsap on the price dip though and think you are buying safer on him at a power forward position that’s always tough to fill.

Strongly consider James Johnson especially if Dion Waiters is out again. Also consider Julius Randle if you think the minutes are bouncing back.

Centers

Myles Turner FD - $6400 DK - $5800
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.66 DK - 35.95
When the Pacers play in closer games they are fine leaving Turner out there for around 35-36
minutes which does help raise his floor. He needs the minutes because he doesn’t do any one thing exceptionally well. He’s not much of a rebounder for the position though he does score at an above average clip thanks to a solid mid range game. Turner will throw in blocks especially on the weak side and I like the cumulative effect of his fantasy scoring if he gets the run. The Wizards are about league average defending opposing centers with Gortat and company generally keeping big men from going nuts. But I love the price dip we’ve had with Turner and I do think there’s some separation as he isn’t likely to be a popular play.

Brook Lopez FD - $7200 DK - $6800
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 33.98 DK - 35.49
His minutes are hard-capped right around 31 so you can never really get extreme upside on the guy, but I do like this matchup for him tonight. Whiteside is a good block defender, but he’ll have to range out with Bro-Lo to control the high pick and roll and the Heat are also allowing worse than average rebounding to opposing centers. Lopez’s price has come down in the short terms and he’s really a deal on DraftKings where centers are typically underpriced.

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