United States’ Patrick Reed reacts after winning the fifth hole during a singles match at the Ryder Cup golf tournament Sunday, Oct. 2, 2016, at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska, Minn. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments.
If you have any questions for Chris prior to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can grab a copy HERE. It is a link to a shared google sheet in "View Only" mode. It shows eery golfer and his DraftKings salary, Vegas odds, Official World Golf Ranking, raw stats, course history, current form, tournament past 4 years results(if applicable) and correlated stats. I also have weighted stats and weighted overall rankings. If you want to make your own model with the sheet go to "File" at the top and "Make a Copy". If you need help please reach out to me on Twitter or in the DFSR chatroom on Wednesday's from 10:30-11:30 a.m. ET and 8:00-9:00 p.m. ET.
We are back to a three course rotation this week. Yay! Can you hear my excitement all the way up here in freezing cold Saskatchewan? Didn't think so. My wife couldn't even hear my excitement writing this and she is right beside me. Anyways here is a look at the three courses for the At&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM:
*Click to enlarge*
The biggest defense for all three of these coastal courses is the wind. Looking back at the final scores over the past few years we see some dramatic changes. Last year it was Vaughn Taylor winning with a -17, the year before Snedeker won with a -22 score but in 2014, with howling winds and some rain on Sunday, we seen Jimmy Walker win with a -11 winning score. I am expecting this week to be somewhere closer to 2014 as Pebble Beach has been receiving rain since the weekend and it's expected to continue through Friday. The winds are also expected to be in the 10-15 mph range for most of the first three days with what looks to be a complete change in direction from Thursday to Saturday(cut day).
All three courses use POA Annua greens. For a look at some of the POA Positive players for this week check out the Golf Betting System's PGA Tour Predictor. To narrow your search just reset the list and choose POA Positive only as a filter. You can also filter by West Coast Positive or eve Coastal Positive. Amazing research tool.
Due to the projected wet and windy conditions this week at Pebble Beach, I will be looking a lot closer at the 2014 results and correlated stats on my cheatsheet. The first stat that stands out and makes a ton of sense in crappy conditions is Bogey Avoidance and taking it even further, you can combine it with Scrambling or Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Everyone is going to make Bogey's but it will be the players making the least mistakes who will be finding themselves in contention come Sunday.
The other stat I weigh highly every week is Birdie or Better % as it correlates very closely with DraftKings scoring and showed up as a Top correlated stat each of the last three years. Another stat that pops up in each of the last three years is Par 5 Scoring Average. As I mentioned above POA Positive putters, although not projectable in my model (yet...), will also weighed heavily this week when making lineup decisions. Below are my Weighted Stats in my initial model for this week(in order):
**These are subject to change leading up lineup lock.**
Even though this week mixes three of my least favorite things about DFS golf(multi-course rotations, pro-am's and crappy weather), I believe there is still an edge to be had with the proper research and lineup construction. The thing with weather is that it just isn't predictable and throws a ton of variance in already high variance sport. For this reason, I will be lowering my overall bankroll exposure and playing 100% tournaments.
The overall field is pretty weak looking at the average World Golf Ranking but is loaded at the top with four of the Top 10 in the world playing this week. It dries up pretty quick, however, as there are only eight of the Top 25 and 33 of the Top 100 in the field.
The stats and all the info I discuss below can be found on my Cheatsheet which is currently FREE for a limited time. It includes weighted stats(Raw & ranked), Course History, Current Form, Odds, and much more. To make your own model with the sheet just "create a copy" from the file menu and if you have any questions hit me up on Twitter.
Jordan Spieth
World Golf Ranking (6th)
Vegas Odds (8/1)
Draftkings ($12,000)
I am sticking with Spieth again this week in the #1 spot. He is once again the most expensive option and could very well hold the same ownership as last week. He was 9th overall in ownership(21.3%) on my trends sheet and although he slightly disappointed with just 88 DK points he ranks second overall in average DK points since the Tournament of Champions. He comes in 2nd on my initial model with nice course history(T21, T7, T4, T22) mixed with some excellent form(T9, 3rd, T3) including a non PGA Tour win in Australia. The thing that really stood out to me though was his ranking in some key stats this week. He is #1 in the field in BoB%, Par 4 & 5 Scoring and GIR. He is #2 in the field in Bogey Avoidance and Scoring Average. Add it all up and you have an elite player with tons of upside that could fall out of the op 5 in ownership once again.
Justin Rose
World Golf Ranking (12th)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)
When I first put my cheatsheet together(Stats, Course history, Current Form) it is usually days before the DraftKings salaries are released and I was positive Rose would be in the $10K range ahead of Phil, Rahm and Snedeker. Vegas agreed with me as he is 4th in odds to win outright but comes with a value salary in the low $9K range(7th). I mean, what isn't there to like about Rose this week. After withdrawing from the HeroWorld Challenge in December, he returned to the Sony Open in January and finished 2nd with rounds of 66, 64, 66, 64 and then two weeks later put up a T4 at the tough Farmers Insurance Open. He played here for the first time last year and impressed with a T6 and if not for a round of 72 on Saturday would have contended for the win. Rose is also elite statistically ranking Top 5 in the field in 12 different stats on my sheet including BoB%, Scoring Average, par 4 & 5 Scoring and SG:T2G. Lock Rose in this week in all formats.
Brandt Snedeker
World Golf Ranking (27th)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
Snedeker seems a bit over priced seeing as he doesn't rank higher than 19th in the field in either Course History, Stats or Current Form. The course history ranking for Sneds is a bit suspect as it includes all golfers, even if they only have one year of history. He has only made six of nine cuts here in his career but has won twice in the last four years. Outside of a missed cut at the Sony Open, it has been a great start to the season for Snedeker with three Top 10's in four official tournaments. To cap it off, I looked at the PGA Predictor tool and sure enough Sneds ranks #1 in POA Positive, #2 in Coastal Positive. If his price in the $10K range pushes people down to Rose or up to one of the Big 3, Snedeker will be a huge value for GPP's this week.
John Rahm
World Golf Ranking (42nd)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($9,600)
He has been a popular pick early in the year and I don't see that changing this week. Looking at my sheet, he is the lowest ranked golfer(19th overall) in the upper tier and surrounded by other elite players with experience here, making him an excellent fade option this week. I get that he has made all but one cut since the start of the 2016 season, but not even the best golfers in the world can keep up that pace. This could bite me in the ass, but I am 100% off Rahmbo this week.
Jimmy Walker
World Golf Ranking (23rd)
Vegas Odds (30/1)
Draftkings ($8,800)
First of all, this pick is for GPP's only! I will make that clear right from the get go. Jimmy is NOT having his usual stellar start to the season with three missed cuts in five events with just one Top 10 and it was in the limited field Tournament of Champions. After seeing ownership in the 25% range for the Hawaii swing, it dramatically dropped off to around 11% for the Farmers two weeks ago. You can expect another drop ownership this week making him an elite GPP play. If you need to make yourself warm and fuzzy for rostering him, just take a look at his course history. After missing the cut in two of his first three years here(2008-2010) he has been close to dominant here with a win in 2014(similar conditions as forecasted for this week) and three other Top 10 finishes in six years.
Patrick Reed
World Golf Ranking (10th)
Vegas Odds (30/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
Am I missing something or is Patrick Reed grossly under priced this week? Looking at my trends sheet his average salary for the year(back to TOC) is $9,475 and now he is in the low $8K range? Umm ok. I am definitely not making the mistake of fading these mispriced players this week. I hurt way too much last week. Price isn't the only thing to like about Reed as he has excellent course history with finishes of T22, T4, T7 and T21 last season. He ranks inside the Top 1o of West Coast Positive players and although the stats don't show it thus far, he is an amazing scrambler. I also like the fact that he is coming off a poor T68 last week which should help keep his ownership normalized for those that ranking current form high.
Shane Lowry
World Golf Ranking (53rd)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
The $7K range is loaded with options but I go right to the bottom of the tier for the final pick. The first thing that stood out was his salary to Draftkings salary differential. According to Vegas Lowry is another underpriced option sitting63rd in salary while ranking 13th in Vegas odds. That is a big difference and I will take Vegas's word for it. I mean have they ever let us down? If you say yes, you have never been my friend! Ok back to Lowry. He also checks off nearly every other box me with nice form(T16, T33, T23) and decent course history(T41, T21) in his two trips to Pebble Beach. Statistically, he ranks Top 1o in the field in SG: T2G. SG: OTT, Ball Striking and Scoring Average. For $7,000 it doesn't take much for him to hit value and he comes with winning upside. Take it and run to cashier on Sunday afternoon.
Vaughn Taylor
World Golf Ranking (149th)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
Talyor comes back to Pebble Beach as the defending champion after shooting a final round 65 and beating Phil Mickelson by one stroke in 2016. He followed the win up with five straight missed cuts(hangover?), and the win ended up being his only Top 10 of the season. While he hasn't recorded a Top 10 yet this season, he has made all seven cuts with two Top 25's which is a much more realistic expectation this week. I will take for a sub $7K price tag. Statistically, he is nowhere near elite but does rank 10th in the field in Scrambling, 20th in Bogey Avoidance and12 in SG: Approach. I will go as far as to say he is safe in all formats.
David Hearn
World Golf Ranking (180th)
Vegas Odds (300/1)
Draftkings ($6,500)
With fellow Canadians Mackenzie Hughes(Win at RSM Classic), Adam Hadwin(59 at CareerBuilder Challenge) and Graham DeLaet(Two Top 10's this season) stealing the spotlight, Hearn will mostly likely be overlooked. Don't be fooled, there is more than enough room for more Canadians to steal the spotlight(insert wink). Hearn is having a horrible start to the season with five missed cuts in seven official events with a T58 at the CareerBuilderChallenge his best finish. He is definitely a GPP only play this week but comes back to Pebble Beach after a T21 in his first trip last season.
If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/NHL talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!
For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanSharSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". Don't set your lineups without checking it out!
**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**
**Weather Update**
**Tee Times**
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tee Times
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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