James Harden de los Rockets de Houston durante el duelo contra los Wizards de Washington el miércoles 9 de diciembre de 2015. (AP Foto/Nick Wass)
Its a short three game Tuesday in the NBA today. We're looking at two high scoring affairs with double digit spreads, and one lower scoring game between two rather evenly matched opponents, so pick and choose wisely. Let's try and narrow down the options shall we?
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 42.27 DK - 44.93
Call out the exterminator, we've got an infestation of Hornets on the picks today. Charlotte plays host to the Nets tonight. As I'm sure we're all aware, Brooklyn plays equal parts fast and bad. They're particularly bad at point guard which is great news for Kemba Walker. Walker's thrown a couple of clunkers recently against the likes of the Warriors and the Jazz. He has been under the weather, but we're hopeful a few days of rest has done him good and he's ready to return to form tonight. Prior to the Golden State game where he first began feeling ill he was averaging 43 fantasy points over his last 4 games which is more in line with what we would expect from him. Tonight, I would see that as his floor with a ceiling of 50. I'd feel good with Kemba in all formats.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.22 DK - 42.51
Damain Lillard is currently listed as probable after tweaking his ankle against the Thunder on Sunday, but it doesn't seem to be serious. Just keep an eye on the updates article in case something changes. If he is cleared to go then he makes a fine play for the Blazers tonight against the Mavericks. In Sundays loss to OKC he went 9 of 22 and a perfect 7 for 7 from the line rounding out with 3 assists, 7 boards,2 blocks and a steal. Dallas is the toughest team in the league on opposing point guards, but this is also the game with the least likely implied blowout, which means Lillard will get his full run of minutes to try and reach value and on such a short slate we don't want to be scared off by blowout factor, but we also need to look for the implied safety where we can find it. Maybe not the best tournament play, but fine for cash.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 29.81 DK - 31.57
The return of Evan Fournier to the Magic lineup has seemed to have an impact on Elfrid Paytons production. Since Fournier's return he hasn't been showing the explosive fantasy upside we saw though out the end of January. That said there's still a case for Payton in your lineups tonight. The decreased production has the price dropping. Houston's a tough opponent in their own right, but they also play at one of the leagues fastest paces which will have Orlando speeding up their game. Paytons still dropping double digit points on a nightly basis, and since Fournier will be contending with the beard, Payton should get the opportunity to contribute a little more all around production.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 57.42 DK - 61.87
Speaking of the bearded one, this play pretty much writes itself. Why play James Harden? Because you have to spend up somewhere right? Not only is Harden the only player on the night over 10K on both sites, the highest priced PF on Fanduel, is more than half his price. I'm sure its possible to build a line up that would eat enough salary that you couldn't afford to put Harden in, but that brings me to the other part of the argument. Not only do you have to spend up, but even at this price, the production you get from a player like Harden just can't be found anywhere else on the slate. Look at the game logs. In his last 5 games he's topped 60 points three times. In the last 10 he's topped 50 points 7 times. Orlando is a league average match up and Harden should eat tonight. Play. Him. Everywhere.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 27.78 DK - 30.1
So who gets to contend with the Beard tonight? That would be Evan Fournier, but stacking these two opponents could be a good way to go, especially in tournaments. While there's blowout concern, this is the highest projected scoring game of the night. Since returning from injury Fournier hasn't shown much to really impress us outside of a double double (20/10/4) against the Raptors on Friday. It's no secret that Harden doesn't really do defense. So Fournier could be in line for the type of night we were accustomed to prior to his foot injury.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 36.15 DK - 39.1
The Hornets have been suffering through a pretty rough stretch over the past couple of weeks. Losers of 7 straight with a few blowouts mixed in has hurt the fantasy production of players like Nicolas Batum. Batum has seen his minutes clipped in three straight but things look to turn around for Charlotte tonight with Brooklyn coming to town. Charlotte's favored by 10 in the second highest projected game of the evening. Batum has only 1 steal in his last 7 games, but 5 in his last 8. That 4 steal game came against the Nets. That last game against Brooklyn he was also 1 rebound shy of a double double with 16 points, to go along with 6 assists. Batum could be in for a big night tonight, and should be considered everywhere.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.52 DK - 34.34
Harrison Barnes is having a fantastic year with the Mavericks. When Dirk went down he took control of the team and while there was some expectation Dirks return would hurt his production, he's showing no signs of slowing down. He's hitting 34% from beyond the arc this season, averaging 20.2 points and 5.4 boards per game. Portland's allowing 5% more points and 10% more rebounds to opposing small forwards not to mention 26% more blocks. This is the non-blowout game so Barnes should see his full run of minutes in the upper thirties and makes a great play everywhere.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 24.26 DK - 25.5
Aaron Gordon has had a very erratic season. Friday night in Orlando's win over the Raptors he managed 1 point. Singular. Uno. He didn't really do much of anything else that night either finishing the night with 3 rebounds, an assist and a block. The next night, the Magic get blown out by the Hawks, and the starters all sat the majority of the second half, but he still managed contribute 16 points 50% in the paint, and 5-6 from the line with three rebounds and assists and two steals. My point is, you never really know what you're getting with Aaron Gordon, but for the price, you don't need a whole lot either. Pretty much if we can get somewhere between those two performances we're happy. Houston is a team allowing 4% more points, 7% more steals and 5% more blocks at the position so the potential should definitely be there and with so few options tonight, Gordon is definitely worth a shot in tournaments, and not out of the question for cash games, there's risk, but it should be minimal tonight.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.08 DK - 25.66
Another guy who has been all over the place this season is Evan Turner. E.T. has dropped single digit buckets in 3 of his last 7 outings. However, the best performance in that span was the 24 points he dropped in 32 minutes against these same Mavericks on Friday night. He paid nearly 7X that night. Small Forward is a tough one tonight, and just like Aaron Gordon, there's risk with Turner tonight, but it should be minimal. He may not duplicate Friday night's performance against Dallas, but as long as he comes close then we have what we need. Also, on the off chance Damian Lillard does in fact miss then I like Turner even more.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 31.16 DK - 32.8
Remember when I said the highest priced power forward on Fanduel was more than half the price of Harden? Say hello to Serge Ibaka. Ibaka, like the rest of the Orlando starting 5, played some uninspired ball against the Hawks on Saturday night, but prior to that he was burning up the court. In the three games leading up to Saturday, he produced his 7th and 8th double doubles of the season, producing an average of 39.06 fantasy points in that span. This one has the potential to get out of hand again, but the price took a hit after the Atlanta game, so if Ibaka and the Magic can find a way to stay competitive he could pay off handsomely. Power forward, like small forward is pretty dicey tonight, so we have to look for the most potential and Ibaka has definitely shown the potential to outperform expectation.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.6 DK - 29.22
Dirk certainly isn't the player he used to be, and he's fallen in to a bit of a slump over the last few games, but you have to expect he bounces back from that soon. He's scored in single digits over his last 3 games, but prior to that, he managed double digits in 12 of 13. What better night to bounce back to form than tonight on his home court against the Blazers, a team he scored 9 against in Portland on Friday night. The Trailblazers are allowing 14% more points than league average at the position and 14% more assists. They're the third worst team in the league at the position and while I don't expect Dirk to put up ridiculous upside, he should be able to manage enough to pay value.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 29.44 DK - 31.2
One more from the Hornets nest. Frank the tank has stepped in with Cody Zeller sidelined and has done a very nice job in the short term. Saturday he went up against the Jazz and Rudy Gobert in one of the toughest match ups in the league for opposing centers and over 32 minutes of play he went 6 of 15 with 2 boards, an assist and 2 steals before fouling out. After that match up, tonight will feel like a vacation against the Nets. Kaminsky is coming in at a complete bargain and I have a feeling he'll be showing up everywhere in our projection system tonight.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 36.24 DK - 37.76
So, we've already established that the Magic were absolutely horrible against the Hawks on Saturday, so lets just move on from that. Vucevic draws the best match up of the night at the five. The Rockets are almost as bad as the Nets at the position. In the four games leading up to the Atlanta game Vucevic was playing out of his mind, paying over 6X points per dollar at this price twice, with three double doubles. The Rockets are allowing 4% more rebounds and 11% more assists to opposing bigs, even if this one does get out of hand I would expect Vucevic to have plenty of opportunity to pay value before it gets to that point as he has been seeing extended minutes over the past several games.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 32.92 DK - 34.22
On the other side of the Houston Orlando match up we have Clint Capela. Capela has been playing pretty well recently as well, picking up a double double against Sacramento last tuesday, then coming one rebound shy of a double double in the next two games. He's also been seeing extended run lately getting nearly 10 extra minutes in each of his last two games. If you think that continues, then for the price he's nearly a must play. While Houston's pretty bad defensively at the five, Orlando isn't all too great either, allowing 3% more points 8% more steals and 7% more blocks. Depending on how the rest of your lineup shakes out, I'd feel confident with either of these guys dependent on what you have to spend. If I had to choose, I'd go with Capela as having the bigger upside.
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View Comments
Jerry! Great stuff as always DFSR! Quick question, not worried about Dirks minutes on a B2B? I mean they are still trying to make a playoff push but still thinking he will get the minutes he has been averaging?? Looking at January I found only 2 B2B games and he played 4 less minutes. Appreciate it yall! Keep up the great work!
Hey, thanks for the kind words! Looking at the system the guys have Dirk projected at 27 minutes tonight which is three more than he did last night. That last b2b you referenced he ran 28 the first night and 24 the next, so it could be Dallas ran him lighter last night and he gets more run tonight. May all depend how he feels. Power forward as I said is dicey tonight, so it could be a risk worth taking.
He could be a late scratch for rest too. Risky business....
Fading Harden tonight I will let you know what happeneds he is due for a let down and played poorly the last few times out against a depleted Orlando team which is now at full strength. Not to mention that I have been seeing GPP winning lineups missing the high dollar guys. Cousins last night is a great example.
Hey Brilliance, I don't know if you play FD, DK or both, but fading Harden may be a good move especially on DK. I play both, but mainly FD and thats what I'm thinking when I write, but the more I look at Harden on DK I think he may be worth fading. FD I'll still have him everywhere. Good luck tonight!
Anytime a guys ownership is pushing 60% he's fade worthy. But will it pay off or does he go all James harden and drop 80.