Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) drives on Detroit Pistons guard Reggie Jackson during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 2, 2016, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/R Brent Smith)
We've got a full slate of Friday basketball with an picks article jam packed with me trying to find new ways to tell you the Pacers are a good play against the Nets.
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 40.05 DK - 42.95
Playing the Nets. End of analysis. That’s the short version at least. The longer version involves all of the projected bumps a player gets when facing a Brooklyn team running at a fast pace and playing almost no defense. Teague is a complete bargain and will likely be in all of our cash games on both sites. He’s good for about 34-36 minutes per game and takes the second most shots on the team behind Paul George. His assist numbers are way up over the career averages with the move to Indy this season and he’s rebounding more as well. I suspect he’s the chalk play on both sites tonight because of the matchup and reasonable mid-tier salary.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 38.17 DK - 40.28
He’s rarely a popular DFS play but dude’s putting together a fantastic season thanks in large part to more focus on his role as a scorer in the offense. He’s taking about 11% more shots per minute this season and almost 50% more three pointers. That’s a significant shift in approach and he’s been deadly from behind the arc with a 41% 3PT% which ranks up there with among the best in the league. He’s also top ten in time on ball which is all to say that in a game that could stay close, Conley is an excellent option. I much prefer his DraftKings price but he’s in play on FanDuel as well. OKC’s about an average matchup for point guards but they’re playing a top ten pace in the league which should help Conley’s volume.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 32.2 DK - 34.89
With back-to-back amazing performances since returning from injury it sure looks like we can count on Russell getting solid minutes with the starting unit. That’s always a little risky with Luke Walton and the Lakers quietly tanking this season but Russell’s been a monster in his last two games averaging a 20/10/7 line. In fact his last two games were nearly identical in the box score with the one issue against the Wiz being the turnovers. He should draw a lot of Isaiah Thomas tonight which is great news considering how bad Thomas is on defense. The price hasn’t fully corrected for him playing low 30’s minutes and we can still take advantage.
Strongly consider Kyle Lowry if Demar Derozan sits again but his price has climbed quite a bit in the short term.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 52.16 DK - 54.26
The Bucks are losers of four straight and Giannis has had some underwhelming performances in that time capped off by an atrocious game against the Jazz. It’s bounce back time tonight though. Denver plays a top five pace in the league and are tied for last place in defensive efficiency. Much like the Nets, we want to target guys against this kind of team profile. This is really just about the perfect time to buy a guy like ABC who still has an elite minutes floor. Among the upper tier salary guys I think you are getting the best bargain on Giannis who’ll face the Nuggets sans-Gallo in what should be an up and down game.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 25.17 DK - 27.41
He has a high minutes floor in games that stay close and this one has the makings of a close one on paper. It’s not a revenge game narrative (though I know folks love that crap) but Wes see run in the high 30’s and can get 15+ shots up in the right scenario. Portland is below average against SF types (more of what Matthews has been playing this season) and are particularly susceptible to scoring on that front. I like the multi-position eligibility on DK where it can be tough to find guys in those F positions and Wes has the mid tier salary often times needed to round out a lineup. It’s a pace upgrade for the Mavs (really every team is) and I think he sees a lot of court time.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.64 DK - 26.09
With Gallinari out and Will Barton and Nikola Jokic both questionable, there could be a lot of minutes minutes available for the Nuggets tonight. Harris is a low ceiling, higher floor guy if he’s on the court for mid 30’s run. He lost time against the Grizz in a blowout, but the two games before had him put up 11 and 15 shots respectively. He needs to score in order to hit value, but I do think the opportunity is there for him tonight with the Nuggets likely in desperate need of offense. Again, this changes some if both Barton and Jokic play but I don’t think that’s going to be the case.
Strongly consider Norman Powell if Derozan is out again.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 32.56 DK - 34.88
Danilo Gallinari was ruled out early Thursday afternoon so we have a ton of lead time to figure out some of the value on this Denver squad. And even with Nikola Jokic possibly coming back for this one I still see Chandler as close to a must play in cash assuming he slides into the starting lineup. With Denver that latter piece is always a big if, but it stands to reason Chandler sees an increased workload with Gallo on the shelf. Chandler already gets heavy run in situations as the sixth man with a usage bump from 22.8 to 25.3 with Gallo off the court. Expect minutes at least in the low 30’s at the minimum with the potential for major upside if they just give him a vast majority of the small forward minutes.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 32.91 DK - 34.72
Not the first Mav on the list tonight and he won’t be the last. Barnes has a terrific matchup tonight against Portland who struggles to stop really anyone on defense, especially SF/ PF types like Barnes. Harrison’s continued his crazy shooting volume ways in the short term with two of his last four games seeing him take 20 and 26 shots respectively. He leads the team going away on this front and they’ve made it a point to get him the ball over and over in half court sets. He’s a solid mid tier price and hasn’t sacrificed much of the usage even with Dirk back in the mix.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 41.2 DK - 44.4
Again, it’s Brooklyn and that on it’s own is just about all you need to know about this play. The other big piece for George is just how much he’s been shooting in the short term. Much more of the offensive load has gone his way with three of his last five games seeing him with more than 22 shot attempts. We aren’t too worried about the blowout with the Pacers only a -7 heading into Brooklyn. George does see a price increase thanks to the matchup and his recent performances (the Orlando game withstanding) and he could be a chalkier play because the 114 or so implied points for the Pacers are one of the highest of the day.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 31.05 DK - 32.7
Could it really be that the Magic starters’ minutes are now *gasp*deepbreath*heavy sigh* “safe”? Things seem to be shaping up that way with Ibaka seeing 33 or more minutes in four of the last five games. The one outlier was a blowout to the Celtics. Frank Vogel might just be starting to trust the starters and if that’s the case we’re buying low-ish on a guy like Serge. He’s coming off a 20/9 game against the Pacers and he’ll add steady defensive numbers. Toronto is about average against power forwards in scoring and below average on the glass. I’m starting to trust the Magic situation here mostly because there’s almost no excuse anymore for Vogel to play their garbage of a bench. Famous last words and all.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 28.59 DK - 30.25
Dallas has been careful in managing Dirk’s minutes since returning from injury and he’s definitely ceded a lot of the scoring burden over to guys like Harrison Barnes and even Seth Curry. But that’s also led to a price drop for the big guy and even at a projected 28 minutes he’s in a good spot against the Blazers. Portland is just garbage defending big men this season. They allow about 8% more scoring to power forwards and are below average against centers as well (where the Mavs have started Dirk in the short term). Again, the thing holding Nowitzki back is the run and he needs to bump up close to 30 in order to truly exceed his price. But I just love the matchup and the short term price dip.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.32 DK - 27.53
Honestly I’m kind of sick of writing the same reasoning over and over for all of these Pacers guys so instead I’ll tell a little story: In my old job, before DFSR came along, all the employees had to wear picture IDs. Each year we’d have to have our picture taken and get new IDs. The last year before I left mine came back from the printer with the name “Bong Norrie” as my name. I have no idea why it came back with my name like that but I didn’t ask to get it changed. Instead I wore the ID “Bong Norrie” around for a year and then quit. So long story short, play Thad Young tonight.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 39.06 DK - 40.43
See Teague, Jeff / George, Paul / Young, Thaddeus above. That’s all you need to know.. I could tell another story I suppose, but that’s boring and really nothing is going to beat the Bong Norrie thing. Turner torched the Nets in his last game against them putting up a 25/15/5 (blocks) line that was among the best lines of the night. That was also his best game of the year. Probably not a favorite to repeat that performance but a great play nonetheless.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 36.02 DK - 37.52
Much along the same lines as Ibaka, the minutes for Magic starters are starting to come around and Vuce is the other guy seeing steady run. Four of the last five games have him playing 33 minutes or more. Over that stretch he’s averaged a 17/10/4 line and with it hopefully the realization in the organization that he is the guy who should be playing a majority of the center minutes. Toronto allows more than league average scoring to the opposing center and of course Vuce is a score first five I love the DK price and really think he’s cash game viable on both sites.
Strongly consider Andre Drummond and Brook Lopez on DraftKings
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View Comments
The writes have been spot on this week. Thanks guys! 💯‼️
Huh? 5 pretty bad recommends yesterday. Zubac, Anderson,Milsap, Ariza and especially Schroder! Hardaway and Howard great ones.
here's to a better night for ALL of us!!!!
Last night best night ever with a total of 366. If Griffin plays in the fourth, who knows what would have happened
No Jimmy Butler? He's going to have a huge game
I've got Jimmy 😁
What does Proj Pts. FD and DK mean?
Projected points for draft kings and fan duel
FUCK YOU JIMMY BUTLER! What a fucking joke dude.