Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 2/1/17

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Point Guard

Brandon Jennings FD - $5600 DK - $5200
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.8 DK - 36.59

Derrick Rose was listed as "unlikely to play" heading into this article, so I will proceed as if he will be out out. If he does end up playing, Brandon Jennings is obviously nowhere near as good of a play. If Rose misses, he is close to a lock here. We all love targeting guards against Brooklyn, and Jennings fits the mold. He's aggressive, loves to run the floor, can shoot the 3 and pass in transition. These are all things that should come handy against a Nets team that sports the highest PACE and lowest defensive efficiency in the league. While the price has slowly risen, the mid $5k's is fair, and value shouldn't be too big of a challenge. Spencer Dinwiddie and Isaiah Whitehead will cover Jennings, and I don't think either of them have the ability to shut down anyone, let alone Jennings, who is extremely quick and agile. As long as Rose is out, Jennings is a fantastic way to go. He can be deployed in both cash games and tournaments, though the ownership will be high.

Kyle Lowry FD - $8700 DK - $8600
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 44.8 DK - 48.14

Lowry led the Raptors to an OT victory last night, and had himself a nice game in the process. With Derozan out, he shot 14 3 pointers, finishing with 33 points and 10 assists. This is an even better match up against the Celtics and Isaiah Thomas. Thomas is an absolute phenom on offense, but is one of the legitimate worst defenders in the NBA. Lowry will be able to do whatever he wants on offense, and the ball will be in his hands a ton. With Normal Powell at the 2, I don't see any chance the Celtics can put Smart on Lowry. That would leave Thomas on Powell, which is an even larger mismatch. Derozan has already been ruled out for this game, so we can sit well knowing Lowry is the safest guy on the board. Jennings and Lowry are the 2 guys that are standing out to me, and I think both of them have monstrous games in great match ups. My only concern here is ownership, but this is point guard, which is usually the most spread out position. Lowry is quite expensive, but not when you consider the usage bump he gets with Derozan off the floor. He is a spectacular option in both cash games and tournaments.

Kemba Walker FD - $8300 DK - $8000
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 41.34 DK - 44.06

Kemba will head right from Portland to the Bay Area, with a whole lot of responsibility on his shoulders. This match up with the Warriors is going to be extremely tough, and the only way they have a chance is if Kemba goes off. Kemba knows that, and will do his best to get off to a hot start. I think Walker ends up being under owned tonight, as I think most people chalk this up to a blowout. Sure, this game could definitely be a blowout. Even if it is though, I still don't think Kemba kills you. He will get his 20 points, 8-10 assists and few steals. If the game stays close, he has the upside for much more. Stephen Curry is listed as probable, which is actually a + for Kemba. The Warriors have ranked 7th worst against PG's, and Curry is a big reason. Klay Thompson won't be able to switch onto Walker, as Nicolas Batum and MKG are way too big for Curry. Kemba is a guy I plan on being way over the field on in tournaments. With so many options at PG, I wouldn't expect him to be more than 7% or 8% owned. You can also game stack this one, and win all the money if it stays close.

Yogi Ferrell, Jameer Nelson and Shaun Livingston are all viable if the respective starters don't play.

Shooting Guard

Norman Powell FD - $4200 DK - $5500
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 26.24 DK - 27.91

Norman Powell has definitely played himself into some future minutes, as I see no way the Raptors can just throw this guy back on the bench behind Terrence Ross. He is obviously the 3rd best scorer on the team, and looks to have the upside to be a very good starter. In the 4 previous games Derozan has been out, Powell has been over 30 fantasy points in 3. He has also been over 16 real life points in each game, and shown his ability to rebound and pass well. Marcus Smart is a good defender, but will struggle here in a fast paced affair. Powell is too big for Smart, and he will look to take advantage early and often. The chemistry between Lowry and Powell is great, and I think you can combo both of them together. I typically won't play 2 guards from the same team, but this is an exception with a superstar being out.

Klay Thompson FD - $6300 DK - $6800
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 32.28 DK - 35.33

This game currently sits with the highest over/under on the slate at 223. That's not too big of a number for the Warriors, but it is huge relatively on this slate. This slate does have a lot of question marks, so the consistency and upside of these Warriors are very appealing. Thompson has been consistent this year, sitting around 30 fantasy points for the most part. He will see the defense of Batum and Lamb today, who are both pretty good defenders. With that being said, they are good individual defenders. There are very few defenders that have the skill of staying with Thompson in transition, and I don't see Batum being one of those guys. Thompson will get plenty of open jumpers, and would expect him to end around that 30 mark. Thompson isn't a guy I love in tournaments, as I would rather pay down for similar upside. Thompson is a super solid cash game option, and I see the merit for him in a tournament if you are game stacking. The price is fair and SG isn't great, so we can't be picky.

Tim Hardaway Jr. FD - $4900 DK - $4200
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 24.5 DK - 26.31

Thabo Sefolosha ended up missing the game against the Knicks, which resulted in Hardaway Jr. playing 58 minutes. 38 of those were during the first 4 quarters, which is what we will see again if Sefolosha is out. Sefolosha is currently questionable, so make sure to keep an eye out for news on twitter as the day progresses. The Heat play very slow, but lack defensive wing-stoppers and give up a lot of open 3's. Hardaway will see the defense of Dion Waiters and Wayne Ellington, who are some of the least talented defenders in the league. I'm not sure Hardaway has the crazy upside today purely due to pace, but the safety is there. This is a guy who can score, and has no problem heaving the ball up 15 times. I definitely like Powell more, but Hardaway is still a great way to pay down. I do prefer him in cash games over tournaments, as not many guards have monster games against the Heat.

Small Forward

Kevin Durant FD - $10700 DK - $10000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 51.88 DK - 55.39

We have Durant and LeBron on top at SF, and we went with Durant here. I think most go with James , who will face off against the T-Wolves. While I think these guys are similar in terms of floor tonight, Durant blows him away with the upside. We know Durant can go for 50 at any point, and if this game stays close, is a real spot he can do it. Kidd-Gilchrist is a great defender vs "small" forwards, but doesn't hold a light to what Durant offers on offense. Durant is extremely expensive, but don't think that will be too big of a problem with some good ways to pay down across the board. There will also be some more injury news as the day goes on, which will result in a few more cheap guys you can pivot to. The stars on this slate come with a bit of uncertainty, and Durant is the guy we will lean on most to get us to the promise land. On the high-end, I do like Westbrook and KAT, along with Durant.

Carmelo Anthony FD - $8500 DK - $7500
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 47.72 DK - 49.95

Carmelo immediately rose to the top of my list yesterday once Porzingis was ruled out, and he did just fine. However, the game got out of hand, and Melo wasn't able to rack up any peripherals. That should be no problem tonight, against a Nets team that seems to hand over assists and rebounds. Anthony saw a 8% usage increase last night, with the combo of Rose and Porzingis sitting out. While we can't confirm both of those guys will miss again, I assume at least 1 will. Anthony will shoot the ball at least 20 times tonight, and the Nets have nobody to put on him. Rondae-Hollis Jefferson has the size, but lacks the skill and footwork to stay anywhere near 'Melo. While he may not have the floor or upside that Durant does, he is extremely safe in cash games and we all know Carmelo Anthony has the upside in tournaments. I'll have 'Melo more on DraftKings, as he's $1k cheaper and gets the 3-point bonus upside.  Small forward is pretty rough after Carmelo, so he definitely has some appeal in this spot. I would certainly be nervous if it was 7:01 and Carmelo wasn't in most of my lineups.

Marcus Morris FD - $5200 DK - $5300
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 24.57 DK - 26.25

Small forward is a bit of a wasteland once you get past Carmelo, so we'll just be looking for the guy that has the best chance of hitting value. Marcus Morris is likely that guy, as he will be needed against this Pelicans team. Morris has been below average in his last 3, but was way above average in the 4 before that. I see him evening it out tonight, and finishing with a solid, not spectacular stat line. The Pelicans throw Solomon Hill and E'Twaun Moore at the 3, and Morris will bully both. I expect him to grab around 32 minutes, take about 12 shots and grab a few boards and assists. Morris is a guy I will have more exposure to in cash games, as I am doing my best to pay up at SF in tournaments. I just see those guys having a lot more upside for the dollar than other positions. The opportunity cost of paying up is less as I will not be sad fading all of these cheap guys. All in all, this is a position that could make or break your night.

Power Forward

Draymond Green FD - $7300 DK - $8100
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 38.01 DK - 40.38

Power forward is a pretty lame position tonight, and i'll be happy finding a way to not shoot myself in the foot at the position. If you can find a couple guys that will settle in right at value, you should be good to go at the position. Green should easily be one of those guys, facing off with the Hornets and the likes of Marvin Williams and Spencer Hawes. He will obliterate both of them in all facets, and could bee in for a triple double if this one stays close. Green has been one of the blowout proof guys this year, as he typically has a big game if the Warriors blowout the other team. He is the glue guy of this team, and is a damn good one at that. The floor is around 35 tonight, and I see the potential for a 60 burger. He will be a fixture in most my lineups, both cash and tournaments.

Zach Randolph FD - $6300 DK - $6000
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.81 DK - 35.18

If you want to talk about consistency, let's take a look at Zach Randolph. Z-Bo has been Mr.consistent over the course of his career, and this season has been no different. With Green battling injuries for the past couple months, Randolph has done his best to fill in and play like the 2012 Zach Randolph. That might not be too tough here, as the Nuggets are pretty atrocious against big men. I expect Jokic to miss this one, which leaves Kenneth Faried and Jusuf Nurkic to play defense on Randolph. Neither of them have a chance, as he has insane advantages over both. Randolph should get at least 30 minutes and I wouldn't be surprised to see a monster game here. The floor is pretty nice as well, as he has been above 25 FP in 17 of his last 20. This match up should be a close one, and I like the game stack in tournaments. As for Randolph, I will have him in every format across the industry.

Serge Ibaka FD - $5800 DK - $6100
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 31.73 DK - 33.46

Ibaka is a bit priced down here, and I can't seem to figure out why. He has been somewhat uncertain as of late, but what's new? This is a guy who has played like 2 different players on a regular basis since 2012. If the dominant Ibaka comes out tonight, we could be in for a fun one. Thad Young is a very underwhelming defender at PF, and I don't see Ibaka having a problem getting involved. The Pacers struggle down low, in terms of both rebounding and allowing baskets. We haven't touched on this game just yet, but it has upside and can be targeted. The over/under is the 4th highest, and the line is only -2.5.  The Pacers get blocked at the 3rd highest clip, which is a little upside bonus for Ibaka, who got his reputation from blocking tons of shots. I will only have exposure in tournaments, but do get the merit in cash games if you need to pay down.

Center

Brook Lopez FD - $7400 DK - $6700
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.37 DK - 38.95

Center is a bit of a weirs position tonight. You can pay up for Towns or Gasol, but those guys just aren't in fantastic spots. That takes ut Brook Lopez, who is kind of to swallow in general. However, we have to look at this objectively. Lopez has the reputation of being an uncertain, inconsistent player, which may hurt our perception of him. Lopez has been over 28 in nearly every game he has played in, and is consistently over 40 as well. As long as he plays, I highly doubt he misses value. This Knicks team is one that struggles against centers, as both Noah and Hernangomez are slow on foot and can't do  much jumping. Lopez is a scoring machine, and will do his thing against the Knicks. If Lopez has his 3 point shot is falling, Joakim Noah will be out of the game in minutes. Lopez is a guy i'm willing to get exposure to in both cash games and tournaments.

Myles Turner FD - $6800 DK - $6800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.47 DK - 36.78

Myles Turner is a guy the optimizer is constantly high on, and rightfully so. Turner has been great as of late, and consistent at the same time, which is very rare for him. This match up with the Magic is a terrific one, as Nikola Vucevic is one of the worst big man defenders in the league. I'm not sure if hes bad or just doesn't care, but either way gives up a lot of buckets. I see the pacers getting Turner involved early, as Vucevic is the weakest link on that defense, and also one of the only guys that can beat them on offense. I do prefer Lopez for the upside, but will have a lot of exposure to Turner as well. This game has a lot of potential and could see it going way overlooked on this slate. Get some exposure in tournaments and hope it stays close.

Guillermo Hernangomez FD - $4300 DK - $3900
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 27.22 DK - 28.54

Kristaps Porzingis was a late scratch last night, and Guillermo "Willy" Hernangomez stepped right in and had a very productive game against the Wizards. The Nets have a much worse interior than the Wiz, and if Porzingis misses again, I will be all over Willy. The Nets interior of Brook Lopez and Trevor is pretty talented on offense, but don't play much defense, and aren't great rebounders either. Hernangomez is a guy who has been extremely efficient while on the floor, averaging well over a FP per minute. The price here is just too good to pass up, and I see myself with a lot of Hernangomez if Porzingis is out. He will help you pay up elsewhere and has the same floor as a lot of these more expensive guys. While he might not have the 60 point upside, you can find that elsewhere with the savings.

 

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