Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/31/17

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Point Guard

Kemba Walker FD - $8300 DK - $7900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.68 DK - 43.25

There are a few strong ways to go in the upper tier of PG, and Kemba comes in as our top option. The Hornets will travel to Portland to take on the Blazers, who don't have the stoutest of defenses. Damian Lillard has been a poor defender throughout his whole career, and this season has been no different. The Blazers give up the 6th most real life points to PG's, and the 3rd most over the last 30 days. The Blazers will be forced to put Lillard on Walker, as Batum requires just as much attention from C.J. McCollum. I expect Walker to take initiative on offense tonight, and he could have a huge game. Lillard on the other side is a good play as well, as Kemba Walker isn't a lock-down defender himself. This game has a ton of upside, as the over/under is high and the line is close. You can definitely consider a game stack in tournaments. As for a lone Kemba, he can be deployed in both cash games and tournaments. His price is fair, and the great floor and ceiling is there tonight.

Jrue Holiday FD - $7800 DK - $7700
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 31.4 DK - 33.95

Jrue Holiday is sitting right below the likes of Lowry, Lillard and Walker, who will all presumably be way higher owned. Holiday offers the same upside, and a floor that isn't far off either. This match up with the Raptors is a good one, as we know Lowry can struggle against opposing scorers. The Raptors have been league average in terms of FPPG, but are in the bottom third in terms of rebounding and AST/TO ratio. Holiday derives a lot of his upside in his peripherals, as we saw against the Cavs a week or so ago. Holiday may not be as easy of a choice as these other guys, but it won't matter what name you have when the games start. With the bevy of quality options at PG, Holiday is by no means a must play, but I will say I think he is one of the most over looked plays on this slate. I will certainly have plenty of exposure in both cash games and tournaments.

Jameer Nelson FD - $5100 DK - $5600
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.45 DK - 28.81
Brandon Jennings FD - $5600 DK - $5100
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 26.49 DK - 29.1

Both of these guys are contingent on someone missing this game, so keep an eye on twitter as the day winds down. For Nelson, we are looking at a questionable tag on Mudiay. He did travel to LA, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him suit up here. If Mudiay does end up taking another game off, Nelson would see another 30 minutes and be a great play in all formats. He did see a price bump, which keeps him out of the must play category for me. As for Jennings, we need the brittle Derrick Rose to take a seat. He is questionable is well, but would consider him a bit more doubtful. Jennings will start at PG and get solid minutes, and I like him a tad bit more than Nelson. He's a better overall scorer, and is in a game I am targeting more. All in all, these are 2 guys who becomes very popular, and for good reason. Make sure you stay informed on breaking news at slate lock comes close.

Shooting Guard

James Harden FD - $12500 DK - $12200
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 59.44 DK - 64.18

This is one of those games that has a lot of potential for Harden. The Kings may not play at the fastest pace, but they are willing to match there pace with there opponents, who is the Rockets. The Rockets play very fast, and Harden continuously looks to push the ball towards the rim. He will see the defense of Aaron Afflalo and Garret Temple, who are both guys that are just too slow to stay with Harden. They might be able to stop him down low, but that won't matter when he is dancing at the 3 point line. The Kings have given up the 3rd highest 3 point efficient to point guards, and allow the 2nd most assists as well. The Kings also struggle against the pick n roll, which is what Harden is a maestro of. This all just sets up well for Harden, who has a floor of 55 and a ceiling that we don't know of. Harden is my 2nd favorite way to pay up tonight, to only Boogie Cousins. He will be in both my cash games and tournaments, as I don't want to look back again and wonder how I missed a near 100 fantasy point game. Never again. I hope...

Nicolas Batum FD - $7300 DK - $7400
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.55 DK - 37.34

C.J. McCollum is a much better defender than Lillard, but still won't be able to stop the speed and size combo that Batum brings to the table.  Batum has been playing well since returning from injury, topping 32 fantasy points in 5 of the last 7. He may not have the same upside as some other guys in this price range, but he's as safe as they come, and he won't break the bank. This game currently sits with a 214 over/under, and the Hornets are favored by 3. In other words, this will be a high scoring, close game. Batum thrives in these types of games, as he derives his upside from peripherals. They should be easy to grab here against a Blazers team who shoots a lot of wild 3's and gives up a lot of points in transition. Batum is a supreme cash game play and is a fine play for tournaments on this slate.

Gary Harris FD - $5000 DK - $4800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 22.95 DK - 24.31

As always, Gary Harris is coming off of an injury. I'm pretty sure every part of this guys body has been injured multiple times in just the 2 years he has been around, but let's not get sidetracked. He gets a great match up here with the Lakers, and looks like a guy that is back to his normal self. He saw 35 minutes last time out vs the Suns, and finished with 34 fantasy  points on 15 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists. Harris is a talented offensive player, and the Nuggets get him involved heavily when healthy. The price is low, the upside is there, and the floor is there as well against a Lakers team who can't stop any guards. Harris also sees a bump if Mudiay is out, as he saw a few PG possessions last game, which carry a lot of value. At a fair $5k price tag, Harris can be leaned on in both cash games and tournaments.

Small Forward

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist FD - $5500 DK - $5200
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 26.58 DK - 27.9

Possibly one of the ugliest positions of the season, I present you small forward. Kawhi Leonard is the only way to pay up, and he has a tough match up with Andre Roberson, who is a top 5 perimeter defender in the league. You then have guys like Carmelo and Gallo, who are both old, tired, and coming of a stretch of high minute games. That takes us to the range of MKG, Ariza and Evan Turner. Those will be the 3 guys we look at here, and I think a lot of people will be in the same boat. MKG will face off with the likes of Maurice Harkless and Al-farouq Aminu, who both have distinct disadvantages. Kidd-Gilchrist isn't a guy who will create a shot and initiate the offense, but he will run the floor, attack the offensive glass and hit open shots. This Blazers team gives up a ton of boards and random peripherals, which fits perfect into MKG's game. He is my favorite SF of the day, and we will have a lot of exposure to this entire game, though mostly from the Hornets side.

Evan Turner FD - $4800 DK - $4700
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 25.7 DK - 27.22

Evan Turner is coming in as the top option at SF in the optimizer, which should tell you just how ugly this is. Turner has been getting quality minutes off the bench recently, and he has always been a guy that produces when on the floor. This match up with the Hornets is pretty average, and he will face off with Nicolas Batum and Jeremy Lamb. He should do just fine against both of those guys, as he has different big advantages over both. Turner is a guy the Blazers lean on off the bench, and will need his production here if they plan on staying with the Hornets. He will also finish the game over Harkless if playing well, so the upside is definitely there. You can play Turner in all formats, and that could be the last time I ever say that.

Trevor Ariza FD - $5100 DK - $5100
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 27.08 DK - 29.15

Ariza is the guy you plug in when you get down to the end of building your roster and have $5100 left for small forward. My point is that you're not going to go look for Ariza, but he's fine. This match up with the Kings is a nice one, as they have been 2nd worst against SF since Rudy Gay went out for the season. I am more likely to play Ariza if I have Harden or other guys from this game, as Ariza is a guy who tends to have good performances when the game stays close and is high scoring. He is a product of Harden, and relies on him to distribute the ball to him when is open. Harden is quite good at that, and should have no problem finding Ariza open against the Kings, who give up open 3's at will. Ariza is a solid cash game play, and is fine in tournaments solely due to this position just being awful.

 

Power Forward

Anthony Davis FD - $11200 DK - $10500
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 47.7 DK - 49.69

We are going to look at 3 ways to pay up here, and Davis comes in as my least favorite of the 3. That's not to say I won't have exposure, but I just see more opportunity to pay down at this position than I do at others. Davis will face off with the Raptors, in what figures to be an excellent match up for him. He will face off with Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valunciunas for most of the game, and will obviously utterly destroy them both on a regular basis. His price is pretty fair on both sites, though he does need one of his better games to hit value. There are a lot of ways for things to go wrong for Davis, who seems to head to the locker room at least once every single game. If he stays in this game and it stays close, Davis could easily lead you to the promise land tonight. I like him in both formats, but will likely only have exposure in tournaments.

Kenneth Faried FD - $6600 DK - $5400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.39 DK - 27.44

Jokic has already been ruled out for this one, which puts Faried in a spectacular spot. He saw 37 minutes last game, finishing with 47 fantasy points and a dominant performance. He can easily do the same tonight, against a Lakers team that is far inferior to the Suns. With Julius Randle out as well, Faried will see a lot of defense from Zubac and Mozgov. Both of those guys are way too slow, and I see no way they can stay with Faried on the offensive boards. This game against the Lakers has the 2nd highest over/under on the slate, and has the 2nd highest combined pace. Faried is one of the most active bodies in the league, and his pure hustle will get him to value in the 1st half tonight. The rest will be cake, and that cake could get you to the top of the leaderboard. Faried will certainly be popular, but ill ea the chalk tonight and play him everywhere. This is almost like Terrence Jones when Anthony Davis is out.

Ryan Anderson FD - $5000 DK - $5000
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.67 DK - 27.98

We all know the crazy upside is here, and we saw a little flash of it last game. This game with the Kings is GREAT for Anderson, and I think he has the potential for a monster game. He will start the game matched up with Cousins, which is a mismatch both ways. Anderson is going to get open at the 3 point line, and he will destroy value if his shot is falling. He will only see Cousins for a few possessions, and will then get a lot of defense from Willie Cauley-Stein and Matt Barnes. Those guys are no more equipped, and will struggle in the same fashion. This price is insane, as Anderson only needs 25 to hit value here. You can play Anderson in both cash games and tournaments, though I do prefer him in tournaments.

Center

DeMarcus Cousins FD - $11400 DK - $11200
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 52.39 DK - 55.26

Yes, please. Cousins only played 32 minutes yesterday, before fouling out with a minute left in the game. He still put up a monstrous game,and dominated every single person who got in his way. He will do the absolutely same thing tonight, but against the Rockets interior. Clint Capela and Ryan Anderson are going to get embarrassed early and often, and Cousins is by far my favorite way to pay up tonight. Center is horrible after him, offering up not a single option you can be confident in getting you 35. The price is definitely up, but the value on this slate is good, and you can make it fit. The opportunity cost of fading Cousins is too high for me, and I will have 100% exposure in cash games. I will also have a ton in tournaments, and could end up just playing him in every single lineup. Make sure you get some exposure to Cousins if you want to win some money tonight.

Steven Adams FD - $6000 DK - $5400
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 27.77 DK - 29.1

Steven Adams is a steady producer for this Thunder team, and I expect nothing less here against the Spurs. The Spurs give off a vibe of being a a team you want to stay far away from, but it's really not necessary. They throw out Aldridge and David Lee down low, who are both guys that don't okay much defense, and aren't too concerned with rebounding. Adams is just fine here at a position that lacks upside outside of Cousins, and I don't think paying down for Adams will hurt you too much. I will only do it in tournament where I have Westbrook, but do see the merit in getting exposure elsewhere. Enes Kanter is also out for the nect 6 weeks, so Adams has his minutes secured over 34. The price is cheap, the floor is there, and the ownership will be down.

Jonas Valanciunas FD - $5800 DK - $5400
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 26.75 DK - 28.11

Like I said, center gets pretty ugly after Cousins. Valunciunas will be the 2nd guy I get some exposure to in tournaments, as he has shown the upside and the ownership will be insanely low. I would expect it to be sitting around 5% on both sites, and this match up against the Pelicans has a lot of potential. I see this going 1 of 2 ways. 1, Anthony Davis moves to the 5 and the Pelicans stay small, which kills Val and will likely cause him to have a bad game. The other scenario is AD stays at the 4, and the Pelicans stay big. This would be great for Val, who would see the defense of Terrence Jones, Donatas Motiejunas and Omer Asik. He will eat against all of them, if he does get the chance to. Val will only be in tournaments for me, and I wouldn't recommend going there in cash games.

Consider Ivica Zubac. He has been getting some nice minutes recently, and looks like a guy that can score FP quickly.

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