Charlotte Hornets guard Kemba Walker (15) grabs a rebound against the Utah Jazz during the second half in an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016, in Salt Lake City. The Jazz won 102-73. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
I waited until this morning to write the picks hoping some pieces of injury information would at least begin to crystallize a little. That didn’t happen. Even at the time of this post (8 AM EST) half of the games lacked Vegas lines. And so we are left with a ton of question marks. This picks article is going to look a little different than normal as for some positions there will be more “if this, then that” scenarios.
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Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 37.85 DK - 39.99
With the Grizzlies a little banged up and overall lacking much in the way real scorers, even more of the offensive load has fallen on Conley’s shoulders this season. He’s averaging more shots per minute this season as compared to last and been much more efficient from beyond the arc (40% from three as compared to a 37% career average). He’s also rebounding the position much better this season, roughly 13% more than what he’s done over his time in the NBA. Portland isn’t a fantastic matchup though Lillard certainly isn’t known for his on ball defense. Conley’s a relative value especially considering the Grizz have needed to play him minutes in the mid-to-high 30’s over the short term. Look for that to continue tonight.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 35.03 DK - 36.99
I’ve never seen a point guard dribble the ball off his own legs for a turnover in one game more than Elfrid did in his last one against the Bulls. It was straight up brutal to watch and he was a TO machine for the whole affair. And yet I’m going right back to the well here against the Celtics. I like this play significantly more if D.J. Augustin is ruled out again for Friday, but the Boston D versus point guards this season is such that I’m almost willing to take Payton even if the Magic come into the game full strength. They are allowing more than league average scoring to opposing ones and Payton’s minutes (for now) are trending in the right direction. I know that isn’t saying much considering the state of the Magic rotation but you have to like Payton’s recent shot volume and this game should give him opportunity to score.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 39.58 DK - 42.09
Walker’s really struggled from the field over his last three games (34% well down from his 46% season average) and that’s cut into his scoring. Now is a great time to buy on the guy considering the shooting looks like nothing more than running a little bad in the short term. He’s still a top-20 scorer in the league facing a Knicks team average at best against opposing point guards. Walker’s upper middle tier pricing can look weird on a bigger slate especially if punt plays come in throughout the day, but I do think we are buying a little low and others will be turned off by the rough looking game log over the last three.
The “If this, then that’s”
Consider Kyle Lowry if Demar Derozan sits again. Lowry sees a somewhat dramatic usage bump when Demar is off the court. Also Goran Dragic is a play if Tyler Johnson sits out as there are more point guard minutes to go around.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 36.57 DK - 39.54
There is a lot of safety in Batum’s minutes night in and night out. In close ones you can expect 35+ minutes of run out of the guy. He’s behind only Kemba in shots per game and that volume is making up for the fact that he’s running off his career averages in field goal percentage. Batum also greatly raises his floor chipping in along the rest of the stat sheet and he’s seen something of a price dip in the short term. The Knicks are well below average on the season defending SG/SF types and allow greater than league averaging scoring across the whole fantasy line. Nic went 18/9/9 in their first meeting this season and should be in line for similar production tonight.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 56.09 DK - 60.74
There’s blowout risk here for sure, though Harden has the highest implied total of any player tonight. But you’ll have to pay for it. Philly’s been frisky of late, winning five of their last six and staying in games thanks to solid play on both ends. That will be put to the test against the Rockets who, when they’re hot, can blow just about anyone in the league out of the water. Harden’s minutes, if the game can stay even remotely close, are locked into the high 30’s and Philly doesn’t have anyone in the backcourt who can really hope at all to stay with him. He shredded them for a 33/9/7/1/1 line earlier in the season though it’s worth noting that even that line falls short on his current price. With enough punts on a bigger slate you can make the case for him though he isn’t a total lock for cash because of the inflated price tag.
The “If this, then that’s”
If Demar Derozan is out again then strongly consider Norman Powell who’s played a ton of minutes with the former off the court. He’s also picked up some many of the scoring duties.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 37.56 DK - 40.86
He played 37 minutes on the front end of a back-to-back last night which could leave some uncertainty about his run tonight. Though the Pacers haven’t been to conservative with his minutes on other b2b’s this season so I’m not overly concerned. The Kings aren’t an ideal DFS matchup because they play at one of the slowest paces in the league this season (25th) though they have up for some of that by also being a bottom five defensive squad. PG is coming off two games of putting up more than 20 shots from the field and over the seasons he’s shooting well above his career averages from beyond the arc. His per minute fantasy stats are down sharply from last year, especially in assists and rebounds, but that’s factored into his price now. He’s a value at these tags especially if he runs minutes in the high 30’s again.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 28.03 DK - 29.84
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 21.35 DK - 23.13
One can never really know the Magic plan on a night-to-night basis so putting trust in their “process” can lead to a lot of heartache. Sometimes we just need to trust that when all information is equal they plan to do the same this as the game before. Fingers-crossed, but if that was the case then Green is looking at solid minutes again tonight. He ran with the starters last game and put up a 13/7/1 line, more than enough to pay these prices. A good sign for him and minutes security is he saw plenty of action off the bench already. When this is the case it’s a bit easier to lock in the starter’s minutes (though never an absolute sure thing). He’s an easier punt tonight especially if we have the Magic starting lineup ahead of lock.
Gordon isn’t in the exact same category considering he’s been in the starting lineup all season and still had his minutes jerked around all over the place. But that hasn’t been nearly as big a problem in the short term. He’s looking at steady run in the low 30’s and getting up around 14 shots per game in the last four. The rebounding is just there enough for him to maintain a solid floor.
The “If this, then that’s”
If Evan Turner sticks in the starting lineup then I think he’s still coming cheap enough to consider. I know he’s playing the Grizzlies, but Vegas still has Portland putting up close to 105 points and Turner’s coming cheap if he’s now playing minutes in the mid-30’s.
If Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor sit again, we’ve seen Robert Covington play extended minutes. He’d make a solid play again tonight if the Sixers are not at full strength.
Honestly, this whole position is an “if this, then that” tonight. It’s awful. There are so many question marks that it’s hard to pick even one (much less two or three) solid options at the position right now. I’m going to run down a list of guys you can consider with their caveats.
- Nerlens Noel would likely draw the start again if Joel Embiid sits. Okafor out would also help though I could see Noel starting again even if the latter plays. Noel has seen a price increase but at around 30 minutes of court time he’s still a bargain.
- Kevin Love is interesting but there’s significant blowout risk in this one. The Cavs are -14.5 to open and though they’ve struggled of late, this is Brooklyn we are talking about. It may end up just be worth the risk on Love considering the rest of the position and he’s a fantastic play if the Nets can keep it even a little close entering the fourth.
- Lamarcus Aldridge and David Lee both see solid minutes and usage upgrades when Kawhi Leonard sits. The latter is questionable and they draw a good matchup against the Pelicans. I much prefer Aldridge seeing as how Lee isn’t a lock to play in crunch time.
Some other names to consider if/ when all else fails: Taj Gibson and Thad Young are steady if unspectacular.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 34.41 DK - 37.57
You like your Magic players tonight? Because the system sure does. Vucevic is starting on the regular now and if Orlando can avoid the blowout then he’s seeing minutes in the low thirties. The blowout piece is a big “if” though considering how often it happens to this team. No line on this game means we are a little in the dark right now, but the matchup favors the big man. Boston is allowing about 2% more scoring and 4% more rebounding than league average to opposing centers and Vuce can definitely score in the right matchup. His price has stagnated because the minutes uncertainty in the short term. Like I said though, that’s all been blowout relevant.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.88 DK - 33.35
Unlike some other center types, Turner relies much more on scoring than rebounding to meet value. He doesn’t crash the boards and like many modern day centers, spends a decent amount of time beyond the arc and along the perimeter. But he can score and his minutes are locked in around 33 per game. The Kings allow more than league average scoring to opposing centers. Vegas has the Pacers scoring around 108 points and Turner comes solidly in that mid range we often need to round out lineups.
The “If this, then that’s”
If Cody Zeller sits again then we’ve seen Spencer Hawes play solid and productive minutes off the bench. He typically outplays Hibbert who gets the starting nod.
If Hassan Whiteside sits with the ankle injury then you could see a lot of Willie Reed who has played in the big man’s absence before.
If you think Greg Monroe sees mid-20’s (or more) minutes off the bench then he’s still a per minute beast on these prices.
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View Comments
If I play Vucevic it's a guarantee that he will go 2 for 20 with 12 turnovers and a bruised thigh.
Let me know if you are playing him then. Definitely want to avoid that line!
Khalil Okafor will definently be sitting tonight. Not so sure about Jahlil though!
Lol, my text editor has a bad problem with names. Fixed and thanks for the catch.
Value play for tonight...frye...since its probably gonna be a blowout
I took t.j Warren last night over p.j Tucker and it paid off. How is this so when he has been playing garbage just like Dirk N did the other night.
Greg Monroe get time tonight? Or what you think McConnell
Monroe has been getting less time but is #1 or #2 option when on the floor. He is closing out games too. Great value. Also look at Brogdon - price dropping and points coming back up.
You cant expect a 12,000 players value to be a full x5. Harden hit value against the Sixers last time he was over x4.5.
To Doug. How do I set my tool range on our dfs pro. System. I just joined today. Like pts/$ and expected points