Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
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Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 55.81 DK - 59.81
We have a pretty interesting 4 game slate tonight, and Westbrook is going to come is as our top point guard. The price is obviously tough, but the numbers don't lie. He is consistently the top scoring player on the board, and will very rarely kill you. This game does come in with a 201 over/under, which is very low for the OKC Thunder. That does worry me a little bit, but I do think he is easily the top scoring play of the day. Deron Williams got hurt last night, and Wesley Matthews has already been ruled out. That leaves Pierre Jackson and Seth Curry for PG, and neither of those guys can play defense. Westbrook is going to absolutely obliterate both of them, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Harrison Barnes on him by the end of the night. With so much value on this slate, Westbrook will be a staple across my lineups.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 35.7 DK - 38.51
Teague has flown under the radar for the majority of this season, but has been very good. You could make an argument that he's been the best player on this team so far, and you would probably be right. The Pacers haven't played in 3 days, so these guys should be pretty well rested. I would expect big minutes from Teague, who is the catalyst and heartbeat of this offense. He has a good match up too, facing off with Ricky Rubio and Kris Dunn. Both of them are great at getting steals, but not too great at real defense. Teague will be able to get to the rim at will, and the open shots will be available. His price is pretty fair on both sites, sitting in the mid $7k's. He should hit value with ease, and the ceiling in tournaments is there as well. We have seen big games from Teague this year, and this could be one of them. You will have to get point guard right on this slate, and there are a few different ways to go.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.01 DK - 33.81
You are going to see quite a few Jazz here, and rightfully so. Though the Lakers have slightly improved from last season, they are still bad on defense and still play pretty fast. With D'Angelo Russell out, George Hill will see the defense of Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkson. He will have no problem against either of them, and should be very safe for cash games. His price is pretty low across the industry, and he might be the safest guy on the board. With that being said, there are a lot of ways to go at PG, and you may be in some trouble if you fade Westbrook and he hits 80, whether or not these cheaper guys "hit value". All in all, Hill is a fantastic play across the board, but there is a big opportunity cost that needs to be acknowledged.
Consider Pierre Jackson if he gets the start
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 33.09 DK - 35.53
Devin Booker is a really good scorer, and knows how to take advantage of his defenders weaknesses. He faces the Nuggets tonight, in a game that has the highest over/under on the slate. Sitting 17 points above the 2nd game, you will certainly want exposure here. Booker and Bledsoe have both been great for the Suns recently, but we're leaning Booker. SG is a worse position than PG, and the 2 guys have similar upsides. Booker is also cheaper, and could help you pay up elsewhere. His price has risen recently, but rightfully so. he was cold for a little while there but is back to his normal self now. You can play him in all formats, and he has the most upside at this position.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 21.66 DK - 23.75
Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews are both expected to sit out tonight, which leaves us with a ton of minutes at PG and SG. Seth Curry should get most of them, as he is trusted and can actually create a shot and score the ball. He started last night, and saw 34 very productive minutes. I would expect a similar output tonight, except the upside is much higher. He will have the ball in his hands all night, and the Mavs see a huge PACE upgrade against the Thunder. Victor Oladipo is a pretty decent defender, but Curry is no slouch either. This has to be one of the safest options on the board, as I just don't see any chance he plays less than 35 minutes. Pierre Jackson has been recalled from the D-league, but I highly doubt they push him out there for 30 minutes. Curry will end up being my highest owned SG, and that's a guarantee.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 25.02 DK - 26.49
Harris saw 35 and 27 minutes after returning from injury. so it looks like he is good to go for full minutes. This match up with the Suns is phenomenal, as they give up the 4th most FP to SG's in the NBA. Devin Booker is an improved defender, but the struggle is mostly due to the extremely fast pace he Suns at. It increases the amount of possessions per game, and therefore causes everything to be inflated. Harris is way too cheap on both FD and DK, as he was sitting about $2k higher before his injury. I will have a hard time getting off of Curry and Booker, but will make sure I do get some exposure here. Harris is a very good player, and a key piece of this Nuggets offense. You can play him in all formats. You can also consider Will Barton if you want a bunch of upside and low ownership.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 39.36 DK - 41.91
Small forward and shooting guard are the 2 positions without an elite option, and that should spread the ownership around. I definitely expect Hayward to be the most highly owned, but i'm perfectly fine with that. He has a ton of upside tonight, and on a 4 game slate, could easily be a must have at SF to win a tournament. He should see Brandon Ingram and Luol Deng (if he plays) defense, and should have success against both. Ingram will eventually be a good defender, but is not strong enough just yet. Outside of Hayward, Barnes and Gallinari are really the only guys who produce consistently and also have the upside. Hayward is the most expensive SF on the board, but he's worth it, and you should strongly consider playing him tonight. He is my 2nd favorite Jazz, behind only Derrick Favors.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 29.28 DK - 30.89
Barnes is a guy I have been using all season long, and he is very consistent. He is probably the best player on this team, and can certainly create his own shot best. They will need him tonight with the starting guards out, and I see Barnes stepping up in a big way. He could see some minutes at point guard as well, and the upside is just limitless at that point. He should see 35 minutes, and easily hit value in this match up. I wouldn't say Barnes is a must play, but he is a very very good one. I am willing to pencil in 30 FP tonight, and the upside for 50 is absolutely there. The price is fair, and the ownership shouldn't be too crazy. You can count on Barnes in both cash and GPP's.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 27.76 DK - 29.66
Gallinari is actually pretty consistent, even though it seems like he has a different ailment almost every single day. Still, he generally sits around 25 fantasy points, and occasionally steps up for a classic 2012 Gallo game. The Suns are a team I could certainly see that happening against, as they plays fast and lack perimeter defenders. I expect P.J. Tucker to spend most of his time on Wilson Chandler, which leaves T.J. Warren and Devin Booker. Gallinari has advantages over both down low, and will certainly take advantage. His price has fallen, and the upside he offers here is unquestioned. I think his ownership could be all over the place tonight, which is something I will try to peg as the day moves on. Gallinari is good for all formats, but you will have to fade some valuable assets.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.17 DK - 25.16
Favors is easily one of my favorite plays of the night, and I really don't expect him to be that highly owned. He is still on a soft minutes restriction, which may keep some people off of him. However, this is a guy who was price in the mid $8k's all of last year, when healthy. He is slowly getting back to that point, and we have saw some nice games over the last couple weeks. The Lakers have no chance of stopping him, as he is a very skilled post scorer, and Randle is way too small. He saw 27 and 25 minutes the last 2 games, so I would say somewhere between 25-30 is where he lands tonight. H has the ability to put up 45 in that time, and at his price, is an absolute lock for value. Some may argue that the upside isn't there because of the minutes restriction, but I would argue back that no PF in his price has that upside, even if the game goes to OT. He is sandwiched between Kenneth Faried and Darrell Arthur, which should tell you how under-priced Favors is. He will be in 100% of my cash games, and a lot of tournaments as well.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 26.51 DK - 27.81
Thad Young is still just too cheap. We did see a slight bump a few days back, but his price is now stagnant. With only 4 games on the slate, we don't have the best options at PF, and Young looks like gold tonight. Gorgui Dieng has not been a good defender this year, and the T-Wolves have been below league average vs PF's with pace-adjusted. This game should be more of a neutral pace, as the Pacers tend to play pretty fast. Young is a safe bet for 25 tonight, and we know he can go off at anytime. Derrick Favors is by far my favorite PF of the night, but Young is not too far behind in cash games. He has only been under 20 once in his last 30 games, and it was due to foul trouble. I will lean on Thad tonight, and am willing to go down with the ship.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 42.78 DK - 44.82
I love this guy. He has to be one of the most entertaining watches in the NBA, and it is 500% more fun when you have him on your team. Jokic has been an absolute monster recently, topping 50 in 4 of his last 6. He gets a solid match up with the Suns here, who lack interior presence outside of Tyson Chandler. This game also has a 230 over/under, so points won't be too tough to come by. Jokic has as much upside as anyone, and this match up is one of the best. With all of that being said, the price is astronomical. Westbrook will remain my priority here, which leaves Jokic for tournaments. I don;t hate Jokic in cash though, and I like it a lot of you are fading Westbrook. All in all, Jokic has a bunch of upside, but is also insanely expensive.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 36.91 DK - 38.73
This is the 4th Jazz play we have looked at, and they have all been in great spots. There is no difference for Gobert, who will match up with the likes of Mozgov and Zubac. He will absolutely demolish both of them, and 20 rebounds is not out of the question. Gobert has actually been a little off recently, which will hopefully keep some people off of him. I would expect at least a few blocks tonight as well, which is a big source of his upside. He is in play for all formats, but you also have to consider how many Jazz you can play in cash games. I will likely limit it to 3, and Gobert will likely see half of my cash games. The safety is definitely there in this match up, and the upside is undeniable. The price is up, but you can definitely fit him if your roster construction is right.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 28.3 DK - 29.77
Chandler is a guy who will be very highly owned tonight, and i'm willing to eat the chalk. Chandler has been absolutely phenomenal lately, and takes n a Nuggets interior that isn't great at defense. Jokic is a superstar on offense, but lacks h strength to stay with Chandler on the boards. Chandler has over 15 rebounds in 8 of his last 9 games, and I se no reason for this to be the game that he falls short. The Suns have also been playing him big minutes, and his defense will be needed against Nikola Jokic. He is the only one who has a chance of slowing him down, and he could see a minute boost because of it. Either way, Chandler is VERY safe, and has the upside to destroy value, as shown a few times just this week. As noted, this game is going to be very high scoring, and the possessions should come fast. I wouldn't blame you for playing 100% Chandler, and would consider it if I just played cash games.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 35.04 DK - 36.36
Yes, Karl-Anthony Towns is a really good defender. However, he does give up fantasy points. There have been 5 centers with over 26 real life points against the Wolves this year, and another 7 guys with 14+ rebounds. Turner has been a big part of the Pacers offense recently, and he has looked really nice with Teague and PG13. Turner is not a guy I will have in cash games, but the tournament upside has to be considered. Turner has been pretty good as of late, and has hit 50 fantasy points twice in his last 10 games. This game should stay close, and does have the 2nd highest over/under on the board. Chandler, Adams and Gobert are all preferred in cash games, but Turner will be VERY low owned, and the upside is there for tournaments.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.3 DK - 31.7
Steven Adams was someone we wrote up last night, and he paid off in a big way. He finished with 20 points and 11 boards, which put him near 40 fantasy points. His price is still depressed tonight, and this is just as good of a spot. Sure, the Mavs play slow, but they also are just plain horrible. Andrew Bogut used to be a competent defender, but lacks the speed, athleticism or anything else needed to stop a Westbrook/Adams PnR. I love the the game stack here with Barnes and Curry. I could see this one staying very close, and Adams will get plenty of minutes. His injury was a concussion, which I think is completely behind him by now. There are a lot of ways to go at center, but you have to consider Adams.
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View Comments
What do anybody think about J.Nelson if Mudiay sits?
T.J.Warren or P.J Tucker
I don't think warren has ever not burned me
That's because he's a bum Cory.
Nelson, and finney smith value plays tonight
Hey guys. Rotowire is showing Rickey Rubio is inactive for tonights game but i see no mention of it on FD. Any newa on this?
Also, i am on Fanduel and want to know if i can see the results of a contest i did not participate in. Is this possible? Ex; i played in the $3 GPP last night and want to compare the results of the $25 GPP which i did not play. Anyone know how?
You gotta play the contest to see it Al. They don't let u window shop
Anyone else thinks turner going to go off against min?
Is this rhetorical as in mocking the author or are you really asking?
your 'lock' of Seth Curry cost me. Didn't even hit value.
damn