Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Tonight is appointment television with the Rockets and Warriors playing. That's about all you need to know about how exciting it can get in the NBA. But there's plenty of other value beyond that game and we've got a lot to dissect for a full slate in the NBA.
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 33.22 DK - 35.72
Let's start with teams who’re just straight up awful at defending. The Nets make every other bottom feeding squad look like defensive stalwarts. They’re getting shredded in every facet of the defensive game and point guards just rip them apart. They’re allowing 7% more scoring and 10% more assists than league average to opposing ones. Holiday put up a 21/4/4 line in 31 minutes when they played last week and that strikes me as on the low end of what could happen here tonight. That game was without Davis, so a usage bump saw him get more shots, but also resulted in a few less assists than his baseline. Look for those numbers to meet in the middle here and the minutes to tick up some.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 42.12 DK - 45.35
In the short term, Lillard’s been on the wrong end of a couple of blowouts and a few of bad shooting nights. That’s pushed the price down and he’s now coming as a value play against the Sixers who are about league average defending point guards this season. I’m mostly looking to buy Lillard at a discount considering four of his last five games have seen him play less than average minutes because of games getting out of hand. That will make the game log look rough, but also will turn other folks away from the guy. He’s an elite scorer in the right situation and the Blazers are fine running him big minutes if the game is close. This is a fantastic time to scoop him when others might be soured on the recent performance.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.94 DK - 38.65
It’s hard to know exactly how a player feels about an off-season move from one team to another, but you have to believe Teague likes at least one part of coming to the Pacers. Namely, that unlike in Atlanta, he’s playing set minutes in Indy and become more of a distributor on the offensive end. His assist numbers are way up this season compared to last and he’s also getting to the glass more. Teague’s price is up since the beginning of the season, but it’s merited and tonight he gets an excellent matchup against the Lakers. LA’s allowing about 3% more scoring and 9% more assists than league average to opposing point guards this season and Teague’s in a perfect spot to hit value.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 32.44 DK - 35.58
Shooting guard’s awfully tough tonight and Klay’s coming a bit cheaper than normal thanks to a healthy run of Warriors’ blowouts. He’ll likely draw Harden on D with Beverley presumably covering Steph. We want pieces of this game simply because the Warrior implied total is through the roof (121, wow wee whaa) but the prices on GSW make it tough to fit everyone. Klay hoisted up 20 shots in their first meeting of the year but only knocked down four of them and went 3-13 from three. That’s some run bad right there and look for him to chuck all day in this one especially if he’s getting the Rockets’ worst defender on that end of the court. Again, you want exposure to this game and Klay is a perfect spot to grab it.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 55.43 DK - 59.74
I’m putting him lower on the list here and honestly not all that enamored with paying these prices for Harden even in a matchup featuring roughly a billion points going in. But shooting guard on FanDuel is rough and there’s a case to pay all the way up for Harden. The last time these two teams met it went to OT and Harden ended with a 29/13/15 line. I’m pretty new to this NBA thing, but that seems pretty good. That game had 2 OTs and it’s an upper-ceiling performance, but it speaks to Harden’s ability to find creases in this GSW D. It’ll be interesting to see the ownership percentages on Harden in this one as he’s not anything close to affordable. But the Rockets have the second highest implied total on this slate and the game projects as close. In the end, I think you go a different route because filling out the rest of the lineup is tough when you run the Beard, but oh man he’s a tough fade.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 20.57 DK - 22.14
Looking for cheaper value play and Swaggy might fit the bill. In closer games he’s more of a 30 minute per game guy and that’s what he should see in this one. The trouble you have with Young is how much his value wraps up in his scoring. He does almost nothing else in the box score (2.2 rebounds and 1.0 assists is laughable for how long he’s on the court) so you need the three ball to fall. But that kind of variance has also driven the price down close to the bare minimums. I don’t love it, and there’s a chance other punt plays come to the forefront before lock, but you could be buying low on a Swaggy mini heat check and there’s a lot of upside at his prices.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 52.96 DK - 56.43
Yes please. Even with the price increase on the matchup, Durant is likely the chalk play tonight and it’s correct. He’s an every lineup guy for me tonight and I suspect the rest of the industry sees much of the same thing. The Rockets don’t have a good one-one-one foil for KD (no team does, he might be the best 1-on-1 guy in the league) and expect big minutes from Durant in this one. He hasn’t needed to play much in the short term thanks to the Warrios blowing the doors off folks, but ratchet it back up for this one. Durant blitzed OKC on Wednesday and he’s been shooting the lights out in the short term. In theist five games he’s shooting 55% from three (!) and 61% from the field. He’s the chalk cash game play tonight almost for sure.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.81 DK - 41.19
The off-season additions of Jeff Teague and to a lesser extent Thaddeus Young has taken some of the offensive weight from George this season and it’s led to a moderate price drop on the guy. He just isn’t asked to shoulder quite the offensive load and he’s getting to line less than last year. Less of the offense is running through him as well which has led to decreased assist numbers. But that’s also helping to explain the price drop. A mid-7K PG is right where we want him against the Lakers who rate out as the worst defensive efficiency team in the league. This is the perfect time to buy an upper-middle tier George who still can dial in the scoring in the right matchup.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 27.81 DK - 29.23
Do you trust the Magic minutes? Me neither. But here we are with a guy like Gordon. Six of his last eight games have him with 30 minutes or more (sometimes much more) and the Magic do seem like they’re stabilizing their rotations some (fingers crossed). The big issue with Gordon is he’ll disappear in the offense too often to consider safe. It’s more of an over-arching Magic issue than it is Gordon specifically, but the issues are there nonetheless. It’s kept his price in the value zone if you think he sees low-to-mid 30’s minutes and I do like the value here. But you need to prepare yourself for the downside of his usage numbers dive bombing.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 56.2 DK - 58.39
Yeah, I don’t love it either. Davis is one chipped cuticle away from heading to locker room and carrying with him all of your hopes and dreams of cashing. Such is the way with this guy as the injury concern is a very real thing at this point. He’s just an injury prone guy who happens to be among the NBA elite in fantasy production. It leaves us in this weird fantasy hinterland where we want to play the guy but are also extremely concerned about rostering the insecurity. He draws the very best matchup you can have in the Brooklyn Nets who are bottom three in defensive efficiency and top one in pace. Davis, when things are rolling, has as much upside as anyone the game and I’m including the Harden’s and Westbrook’s of the world. But man, the injuries really make you wonter. This is an NBA slate chocked full of high upside plays so you likely aren’t paralyzed by choice with AD, but if he ended up as the highest scoring play of the night I wouldn’t be surprised.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 33.26 DK - 35.26
You always need to worry about the Luke Walton tilt-pull of his best players and that includes Randle. It happens to often with the Lakers’ best players and that’s the one thing keeping Randle out of the safe zone at these prices. He’s struggled in his last three games, averaging only four points per game and that can really shake your confidence in a guy. I’m not totally concerned with the shot volume dip in the short term. This is a guy averaging double digit looks per game in around 30 minutes and two of the last three games saw him facing the Pistons and Clips who play ultra slow. The Pacers are a bottom half defensive team in general and particularly bad against power forwards this season. I love buying low on Randle in a plus matchup.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 29.07 DK - 30.39
Speaking of plus matchups, it goes the other way for Thad Young and the Pacers against the Lakers. LA gets crushed this season in the front court and are allowing about 5% more scoring and 12% more rebounding than league average to the position. I’m not so concerned with Young’s lack of minutes in the short term as the Pacers found themselves in a bunch of blowouts. This is such a good matchup for him and I love how he’s nearly doubled his three point attempts this season. The corner spot up has been a plus shot for him and he should be able to space in this matchup.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.53 DK - 36.91
He draws one of the best DFS matchups you can get with the Lakers here who allow about 5% more scoring than league average to opposing centers. Turner is an offensive first center who will step back beyond the arc if Teague can get him into the right pick and roll set. He has double digit rebounding upside in the right situation (this is one of them) and among all of the Pacers I do think his minutes are rather safe. I think you see Turner as one of the chalk center plays tonight considering the matchup and his recent returns. He’s a bit of a better deal on FanDuel but his double-double upside has him as a DraftKings value as well.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.95 DK - 37.05
Sometimes buying someone at value means staring down the barrel at a couple of recent bad performances and not conflating that with what a player can actually do. I think that’s the case with Dwight who got buzzed off minutes last game in a random blowout and sat out the game before. He has double-double upside in a close game and the Bulls don’t go small enough to make Dwight a total liability. I like Turner much more and will go there in cash games, but I do like the upside on Howard who is often underpriced because of the Hawks’ game flow.
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View Comments
Embiid is a great play against Portland tonight who is one of NBA's worst against NBA's frontcourts
I'm playing Anthony Davis in 1/2 line ups, but he scares the living shit out of me every time. I've gotten burned many times. Tonight is the night though, because with that absurd over-under on Houston-GS, everyone will load up there.
what is absurd is risking any real cash on the bitch ass Anthony Davis, he gets touched in any way he is hurt. FK THAT with his sorry ass