Jon Rahm watches his shot from the second tee during the final round of the Quicken Loans National PGA golf tournament, Sunday, June 26, 2016, in Bethesda, Md. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings and FantasyAces. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games(head to heads/double ups) as well as upside plays for tournaments.
If you have any questions for Chris prior to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments sections, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
**If you are looking for a rundown of last week's tournament head over to my BLOG where I take a look at ownership and DraftKings points to try and find some trends to exploit moving forward.**
PGA West TPC Stadium Course
Par 72 - 7,300 Yards
PGA West Tournament Course
Par 72 - 7,204 Yards
La Quinta Country Club
Par 72 - 7,060 Yards
It's a new week and the PGA Tour has made its way back to the mainland for the CareerBuilder Challenge from La Quinta, California. This event is a bit different than other tour events as it has a three-course rotation and 54 hole cut. The first three days of the tournament are also played as a Pro-Am event so expect a ton of celebrities on the broadcast. I will be sticking to shot tracker myself. If you are playing cash games you will want to target more upside in your lineups this week as the 54 hole cut somewhat downplays the ability of cut making and increases the importance of birdies and eagles. The average winning score over the last five years has been -25 and this course lead the tour in eagles last season(per Pat Mayo Hour). With three different courses, it makes it really tough to nail down specific stats so I will be rolling with a fairly straightforward model this week on my cheatsheet. I will be weighing Birdie or Better % as the most important with Par 5 Scoring right behind. For the Strokes Gained metrics, I will be relying on a combination of "Off the Tee" and "Approach". I am leaving SG: Around the Green out of the equation this week as I feel if you are scrambling consistently there is no way you will score -20 or better. It's really that simple this week. Roster guys who have form and make tons of birdies. One thing to note is that if you are looking at the cheatsheet I have now implemented a heavier weight on 2017 stats as most players have now played three or more tournaments.
From a tournament players point of view, ownership is going to be much more important on a full field event. I discuss this on my blog in the recap of the Sony Open. The first place I go to get a feel for this on a weekly basis is www.FanShareSports.com. They tally each player's tag count(mentions) on social media as well start/sit recommendations and sentiment rating. Bookmark it!
If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NFL/NBA talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!
High End Targets ($9,000+)
Francesco Molinari
World Golf Ranking (33rd)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($10,300)
FantasyAces ($5,800)
I start things off this week with what I feel will be a terrific GPP pivot, contrarian option. It feels like a very scary pick as Molinari hasn't played a professional round since late November but I am going to trust my cheatsheet this week where he sits in the #2 spot. He ranks so high for a few reasons starting with his stats. Looking at his rank inside this field he sits Top 10 in the following stats (SG:TOT, SG:T2G, SG:APP, Par 5 Scoring, Scoring Average). He also ranks #1 in current form on my sheet coming off a T4 at the DP World Challenge, T4 at the Shriners Open, and T6 at the HSBC Champions. He also won the Italian Open in September on the European Tour. I would have to go back and check but I don't think Molinari has ever seen a price greater than $9.5K before so it feels weird paying this much. With Bill Haas sitting right there as the most tagged golfer on FanShareSports, I think Molinari has similar, if not higher, upside at a much lower ownership level. Perfect for large field GPP's.
John Rahm
World Golf Ranking (137th)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,700)
FantasyAces ($5,550)
From a possible low owned, high tier GPP play to a very chalky play. When looking at the early field last weekend I thought for sure we would see John Rahm in the Top 3 in salary above $10K. Nope. He comes in under $10K which should almost guarantee a 25%+ ownership level in tournaments and possibly even higher in cash games. Normally, I would consider fading a player with this much hype but I think that would be a mistake with Rahm this week in a weaker field event. He has been tearing up the Tour since turning pro following the US Open last year making eight of nine cuts and tallying two Top 5's and six Top 25 finishes. Looking at the stats he als0 ranks #1 in the field with my weighted model. I mean seriously, his Birdie or Better % right now is sitting around 30% for the season while he is gaining just shy of two strokes tee to green to the field. With a 54 hole cut and three scoring courses, golfers will need a ton of birdies and when talking birdies Rahm is your guy!
Brendan Steele
World Golf Ranking (57th)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FantasyAces ($5,400)
With a price in the lower $9K range, I think Steele will be fairly popular this week for those who are going to avoid the $10K+ golfers. e is another guy I a not worried about ownership as he comes with excellent cash game value with upside for tournaments. After some shaky course history here on his first four trips(Cut, T6, T56, Cut) he came through in 2015 with a T2 followed by T34 last season. The T34 doesn't bother me as he was coming into this event with less than ideal form unlike 2015. This year looks more like 2015 as he is coming off a T6 at the SBS Tournament of Champions and also picked up his first win since 2011 at the Safeway Open back in October. Statistically, he ranks 5th on my model, highlighted by a 9th ranking in the field in Par 5 Scoring, 4th in Ball Striking and 10th in SG: T2G. With the amount of sand around these courses, it also helps that Steele ranks 13th in Sand Save % on my sheet. I will have a ton of exposure across all formats this week.
Bill Haas
World Golf Ranking (42nd)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($10,500)
FantasyAces ($5,750)
Another chalky play in the upper tier this weekend for good reason. e comes back to the CareerBuilder Challenge/Humana Challenge/Bob Hope Classic with incredible course history. He has played here 12 times in his career, making 11 cuts with five Top 10 finishes including three straight and a win in 2015. Even better, he is coming with top form with finishes of 20, T4, T13 and T13 in his four tournaments played in this new season. The only worry I have is his ranking of 7th in the field in Par 5 scoring but overall he ranks 4th inScoring Average so it doesn't raise too many concerns about his success this week. I don't think chalky plays are all that bad in tournaments as long as you fill in around the chalk with some low owned/high upside plays.
Ryan Palmer
World Golf Ranking (76th)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($8,000)
FantasyAces ($5,150)
I am ignoring my cheatsheet this week that has Palmer ranked 94th due to his form. Instead, I will go with my heart this week and roster Palmer who has gone through some tough times this offseason with health issues to his wife. He made his return to action last week at the Sony Open and opened with an excellent round of 66 but fell apart on Friday shooting 75 and missing the cut. There is a ton of opportunity in jumping back on board this week as he is obviously very comfortable here at La Quinta, recording four straight years with a Top 20 or better. Not only that, most people will avoid him after that 75 which should garner an ownership in GPP's in the range of 10% or less in my opinion. Totally just a hot take here but I also think the Pro-Am setup with tons of talking and communicating with fans and the celebs will help Ryan stay motivated with his head in the right spot. I am rooting for the Palmer family from much more than a fantasy perspective.
John Huh
World Golf Ranking (216th)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FantasyAces ($4,800)
Looking at all factors this week(form, history, stats), Huh is going to be a staple in my cash games. He has limited upside with just three Top 10 finishes all last season but has been a cut-making machine and ranks inside the Top 5 in my Cash Game Model. He hasn't missed a cut since the Traveler's Championship last August which is now up to 10 straight tournaments. While he only ranks 82nd in BoB%, the thing that has me drooling over his cash game prospects is the high ranking in Bogey Avoidance(20th), Scrambling(10th), Driving Accuracy(10th) and Sand Save %(16th). He has also played here twice finishing T30 in 2015 and T24 last season.
Also Consider: Chez Reavie
Cameron Tringale
World Golf Ranking (209th)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($6,700)
FantasyAces ($4,500)
There is only one golfer under $7K this week that has played here at least four of the last five years and not missed a cut. Yep, you guessed it. It's Cameron Tringale. He has actually played here six straight years now, making every cut and finishing with a career-high T14 last season. His form is also trending in the right direction after a Cut at the Safeway Open and 76th at the CIMB Classic. He has since recorded finishes of T31, T46, and T27. Nothing really stands out from a statistical standpoint besides his 12th rank in Strokes Gained Around the Green. The other thing I noticed is that his Vegas to DraftKings differential. While he ranks 60th in salary he ranks 41st in Vegas Odds.
Also Consider: Graham DeLaet
**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**
**Weather Update**
**Tee Times**
Here is the link to the Thursday through Saturday tee times.
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
What's up Chris? Couple questions. (1) Are Stone & Gay good lower % owned options. (2) Getting a bad feeling about Dufner, should I dump him for List. Thanks