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Basketball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice

01/14/2017
Jerry Vanderwoude

Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 1/14/17

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Point Guard

John WallJohn Wall FD - $9700 DK - $9500
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 47.14 DK - 50.23
There is certainly some concern over the right pinkie, I feel the pros far outweigh the cons here. This is a match up against the fast paced, not very good at basketball 76ers. Reports said Wall was practicing shooting with his pinkie adjusted off of the ball. While that could impact his offensive performance, I'd look for him to just focus on more close range shots. After his performance Wednesday against the Celtics, look for folks to be off of Wall, but if he is able to transfer his adjusted shot from practice to the game, while still piling up the assists, rebounds, and steals, Wall could very well prove to be the under the radar pick of the night.

Jrue HolidayJrue Holiday FD - $6800 DK - $7300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 34.9 DK - 37.57
Jrue had been going through a pretty rough spell there before Thursday nights win over the Nets. In that game he was good for 21 points to go along with 4 boards and 4 assists in 31 minutes. This was the first time he scored over 20 points since before Christmas. What we hope is that that Nets game was the start of Holiday bouncing back to the 30plus fantasy point player we saw throughout the end of December, which at this price point is perfect for our cash game needs. The Bulls haven't been great against opposing PGs this season, but have been the leagues worst defense against the position since benching Rajon Rondo just before New Years. If Jrue is going to have a resurgence, the time is now.

T.J. McConnellT.J. McConnell FD - $5400 DK - $5600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 25.84 DK - 27.85
There's a lot to like about this match up, and while most of it is on the Washington side, the Sixer's T.J. McConnell has been turning a lot of heads recently. Don't look now, but the Sixers are 4-1 in their last 5 games, (and quite possibly on their way to another win as I write this) and it's no coincidence that McConnell has been starting at the point during that stretch. While the Sixers ease Sergio Rodriguez back from his ankle injury, McConnell has taken full advantage of his opportunity to run with the starting squad paying over 5X points per dollar with flashes of 7X upside. Sure, Washington's a tough match to opposing SGs, but remember earlier when we were talking about John Wall and his pinkie? Well, if that has him relaxing his defensive game, this could be one of those games where McConnell reaches for the ceiling and takes us with him. I'm going to have exposure to T.J. across all formats, you may want to do the same.

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Shooting Guard

Dwyane WadeDwyane Wade FD - $7200 DK - $7100
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 35.16 DK - 36.85
Has the fountain of youth been found in Chicago? Dwayne Wade has certainly been playing like his younger self lately. In his last 3 games he's averaging over 20 points per game. While clearly not his younger self, today's Dwayne Wade performs better on rest, and will be coming in to the night fully rested after playing 33 minutes against the Knicks on Thursday. Jimmy Butler is currently considered questionable, but even if he does return, He may not be ready to take on the full work load, and the Bulls will again look to Wade to take control yet again against the Pelicans. If Buckets does play, it could hurt Wades ceiling, but definitely love him in cash games regardless.

Rodney HoodRodney Hood FD - $4200 DK - $4400
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 23.47 DK - 25.44
Rodney Hood's salary dipped to a season low across the industry on Tuesday against the Cavaliers. A 4 game run of single digit scoring will do that to a guy. He answered back with 18 points, hitting 4 from beyond the arc, while also nabbing a season high tying 2 steals. that added a couple hundred to the salary but not anything near enough to deter us from locking him in to our lineups. The thing about Hood is he has never been a guy you rely on for huge upside, though he certainly flashed some on Tuesday, but the primary focus here lies in the safety you get from a guy at this price. I don't love playing Jazz players, but Hoods price is just too good to resist.

J.J. RedickJ.J. Redick FD - $4800 DK - $5900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.96 DK - 28.46
Clearly J.J. Redicks New Years resolution was to turn up the heat. Since the ball dropped in Times Square, he has averaged nearly 30 fantasy points per game. His salary however, remains the salary of the player Redick was in December. A player that produced a mere 8.2 fantasy points on the 31st. Today Redick and the Clippers will face off with the Lakers, who are in the top 10 in pace played in the league, and the bottom 10 defensively against the position. Redick seems to be taking full advantage of Blake Griffin being off the court and until the price catches up to the current production, or less likely, the production falls off, this is the time to buy.

Small Forward

Kawhi LeonardKawhi Leonard FD - $8700 DK - $8500
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 39.73 DK - 41.83
Kawhi Leonard only saw 26 minutes on Thursday against the Lakers, but that was due primarily to the 40 point blow out. Even with the minutes reduction, Leonard still managed to pay nearly 5x value sinking over 30 points in back to back contests. This was the second time this season that Kawhi managed to score 30 or more in 29 minutes or less, proving his offensive prowess is unmatched. While this game does have potential for a blowout, the Suns fast pace should allow the Spurs enough posessions for Leonard to easily hit value, and if Phoenix finds a way to keep this one competitive, you have to like his upside. I definitely like Kawhi more for cash games, but given the lack of options for spending up today, may take some tournament exposure as well.

Gordon HaywardGordon Hayward FD - $7600 DK - $7200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 37.65 DK - 39.97
I know that I said earlier that I generally hate to roster Jazz players, but Gordon Hayward is the exception to that, I rarely have any concerns when I work him in to a lineup, especially on a short slate like we find ourselves with today. Hayward dropped 28 points to go with 9 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal and a block against the Cavs on Tuesday. Hayward's been extremely effective shooting lately, sinking 55% from beyond the arc in his last 6 games. The Magic give up 3% more rebounds and 6% more assists to opposing threes this year. Hayward isn't known for double doubles, but I can see one being in the cards for tonight's game.

Otto PorterOtto Porter FD - $6200 DK - $6600
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.23 DK - 31.02
I will most likely be targeting this game more than the others on the slate. Otto Porter could very well be an every lineup type of play as he's really been giving his all in the Wizards push to be a playoff contender. Porter's been very reliable this season, consistent with his scoring and stingy with the turnovers. If he could increase his rebounds, and pick up a few more assists, he could really round out his game. For what he brings to the court though, he's a great cash game play, averaging about a fantasy point per minute over his last 5 games. His 40.7 fantasy points against the Celtics on Wednesday was his second highest total on the season, and as I said before there is a lot to like about the Wizards in this match up with the Sixers. Consider Porter across all formats.

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Power Forward

Julius RandleJulius Randle FD - $6700 DK - $7100
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 31.81 DK - 33.62
Everyone is entitled to an off night from time to time, and for Julius Randle, that night was Tuesday against the Blazers. in 26 minutes he put up a forgettable 6/10/3 line. He bounced back to form quite nicely though on Thursday against the Spurs. He scored 22 points while picking up 6 rebounds and 5 assists in a 34 minute performance that more closely resembled the games we've come to expect from Randle in recent weeks. The Clippers are about average against opposing fours, but in the last 10 Griffinless games, they're in the bottom three in the league. This game could get out of hand, but Randle has been getting consistent run even in garbage time, so I wouldn't worry about his minutes getting buzzed. Go ahead and lock him in across all formats.

Derrick FavorsDerrick Favors FD - $4700 DK - $4800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 24.6 DK - 25.74
Anthony Davis is questionable, and if he doesn't go, then there just isn't a whole lot to love about power forward today. Derrick favors is just another case of price and opportunity not matching up. Favors has been seeing a consistent run of minutes in the mid to upper 20s but has been somewhat inconsistent in that time. When his shot is falling, he does enough in the other aspects of the game to get him to value. As of the time I'm writing this, Favors is on pace for about 20 fantasy points, which is enough to just barely get the job done. With this slate and the given options we may just have to bite the bullet and do something at PF that leaves us feeling a little nauseous, but if at the end of the night we're on the right side of the cash line then it's all worth it, and Favors may be one of the best bets to getting us there.

Markieff MorrisMarkieff Morris FD - $5700 DK - $6000
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.15 DK - 30.18
Here we find ourselves back in D.C. for the Sixers and the Wizards. Markieff Morris has seen minutes close to 40 in 4 of his last 6 games, with foul trouble getting him buzzed in the others. When he is able to get his full run he's been making the most of his opportunity. He put up a season high 21 shots on Wednesday against the Celtics, and managed his 10th straight game with double digit scoring. I really can't emphasize enough just how much I plan to target this game. At a weak PF position with 2 teams that run at a good clip, and most likely no Joel Embiid guarding the Philly net, Markieff is a no brainer.

Center

Marcin GortatMarcin Gortat FD - $6100 DK - $6400
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 29.79 DK - 31.21
Joel Embiid played last night or else he would probably occupy this spot. Since he's pretty much guaranteed to be resting tonight, we look to the opposing front court and Marcin Gortat. Marcin has been extremely hot lately, posting 6 double doubles in his last 8 games. Wednesday against the Celtics, he fell just 1 rebound shy of making it 7 in 8. The minutes have been locked in the mid thirties and reached upwards of the low 40s. The Sixers are bottom three against opposing 5s and that's due more to when Embiid is off the court than on. Facing some combination of Noel and Okafor sets Gortat up for a nice floor and an even nicer ceiling.

Robin LopezRobin Lopez FD - $4100 DK - $4200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.94 DK - 25.18
Robin, the less intriguing of the Lopez brothers, finds a spot here because the match up is just too good to pass up. The Pelicans are a bottom 10 team against centers this year, giving up 11% more rebounds, 15% more assists and 8% more steals to the position. RoLo may only be seeing about 25-30 minutes per game, but he's been able to manage double digit points in his last 2 and should be able to pick up enough production tonight to easily hit value. 20 points should be a lock, with potential upside for 25-28.

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image sources

  • Evan Turner, Kawhi Leonard: (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

6 Visitor Comments

  1. If you want to win, read his article and just fade every player he says to start. This guy is a legit idiot. You’ve been warned

    • Darn, I don’t feel so special anymore. Thought I was the only one who was getting reemed out by Joe LOL.

  2. Well Joe, if you would have followed that strategy last night, you would have missed on good cash game plays in I Thomas, Lowry, Favors, Love and Vucevic.

  3. They aleast narrow it down for us. They helped win more than not. Hey Joe, if you have a better plan, start a website!

  4. hahaahah STD joe joe joe would u like to suckme? i think we should make sweet love

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