Welcome back DFSR family. I hope everyone had a merry Christmas and is ready to get back on the daily fantasy hockey train. We have nice 10 game slate tonight with four of the top five offenses on the ice.
As we start the second half of the season let's take a quick look back at some key strategy differences for cash games and tournaments. For cash
For cash games, it is best to target players who accumulate more than just points. For the forwards, I love to look at not just shots on goal but shot attempts per 60(iCorsi/60 on puckalytics.ca). For defense, I look at blocked shots along with the shot metrics to help find value. Stacking can be done in cash but I always limit them to just two players from a team(not including goalie),usually from separate lines who also play on the powerplay together. Don't get cute at the goalie position in cash games! Roster a top dog who is in a favorable situation. You can get a feel for this by scanning the Vegas odds and projected team totals.
For tournaments, I look at the same things as I do for cash games but also try and peg those players who have multi-point upside. Tournaments(GPP's) are also the best place to line stack a team that you feel will score a ton that night. You can run stacks in many different ways(2 man, 3 man, 4 man with D) but it is always best to make sure all your players get powerplay ice time to maximize their upside, even on Draftkings where PP points are not awarded. If you are playing larger field tournaments with multi-entries there are some ways to make your lineup more contrarian. If a team is a heavy favorite and projected to score it is very likely their top line will be the highest owed. To get some lower ownership you can pivot to that teams second or even third line to separate yourself from the field. you can also target a less popular team on a larger slate. Don't go crazy and target a heavy underdog but target a team like the Islanders or Hurricanes when they will be overlooked by the big dogs. Tournaments are also a great place to take a shot with a value goalie who will come at lower ownership.
Now that we looked at some strategy let's dig in and take a look at some top plays for Tuesday night.
Hockey is back and with it come our NHL projections which help inform these picks every night. When you purchase a DFSR NHL subscription to our base hockey projections you also get access to our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.
If you want to see the numbers behind our projections, create linueps with a single click, or research as deeply as your heart desires, click the button below to test out yourself.
Opponent - NAS
Proj Pts FD - 16.82 DK - 4.2
He went into the break as one of, if not the hottest goalie in the league. He has picked up 17 wins in 26 starts for the Wild while leading the league with a 1.57 GAA which is .3 goals per game better than Rask in second. Dubnyk also leads the league in a much more important stat with his .948 save % and five shutouts. From a PTS/$ perspective, there are better choices tonight as the Wild are small dogs on the road in Nashville but that doesn't worry me with Dubnyk.
Also Consider: Sergei Bobrovsky(CBJ)
Opponent - NJ
Proj Pts FD - 18.8 DK - 5.93
Opponent - NJ
Proj Pts FD - 15.48 DK - 4.83
Once again we are faced with the decision between Crosby and Malkin. If salary was of no concern the choice would be easy as Crosby is tearing up the league with 24 goals and 14 assists through his first 29 games this season. That kind of production comes with a price though and if you want a bit of discount, especially in cash games it is very easy to pivot to Malkin. He has been red hot lately, tallying 14 points over his last 10 games including five points on the powerplay. For tournaments, it makes sense to roster both as they occupy the top powerplay unit and come with a ton of upside. You may just have to deal wth a few punt plays.
Stack With: Phil Kessel, Patric Hornqvist
Opponent - ANA
Proj Pts FD - 9.66 DK - 3
It's been awhile since I have recommended my bearded brother from another mother. After an incredibly slow start to his season(13 points through first 24 games) he has picked up the pace and has averaged a point per game over his last 10 games in the month of December. He is an elite playmaker sitting 13th All-Time in assists(985) just 15 shy of the 1000 mark and 31 shy of Joe Sakic. He is a GPP play only for DFS tonight as he doesn't provide the safety with shot volume.
Stack with: Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski
Opponent - WPG
Proj Pts FD - 16.11 DK - 5.1
The Bread Man has quickly proven his Calder Trophy season was no fluke as he is averaging a point per game through 36 games in his sophomore season. He continues to skate on a line with the elite Patrick Kane and is now also skating with Jonathan Toews after Anisimov was placed on the injured reserve. Panarin was another player who went into the Christmas break red hot as he has tallied 14 points over his previous 10 games. The Blackhawks will be in a great spot tonight as they are big home favorites(-175) to the Jets who rank 23rd in defense and 28th on the penalty kill.
Stack with: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane
Opponent - COL
Proj Pts FD - 14.16 DK - 4.53
Johnny Hockey is another player who had a very slow start to the season who is now on fire and carrying his team offensively. He has tallied 12 points in his last 10 games including seven powerplay points(attentionFanDuel users). Speaking of the man advantage, the Flames have been filling the net with the powerplay, scoring 14 goals in their last 38 attempts for an elite 33% efficiency rate. Gaudreau doesn't come with elite shot volume(2.7 shots per game) but just enough for him to be considered in all formats, especially against the league's worst defensive team.
PP Stack with: Sean Monahan, Kris Versteeg, Alex Chiasson
Opponent - NAS
Proj Pts FD - 9.64 DK - 2.75
To fit some of the top players tonight, especially in stacks for tournaments, you are going to have to deal with some risky low-end options. Enter Jason Zucker who ranks very high from a PTS/$perspective despite not playing on the powerplay. He has been red hot leading into the break with nine points over his last 10 games while averaging 25 shots on goal per game.
Stack with: Mikko Koivu, Mikael Granlund
DEFENSEMEN
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 14.61 DK - 4.97
From a PTS/$ perspective, Ristolainen has been an elite fantasy D man this season. He provides a high floor for the $6K price tag with his balanced repertoire of shot blocking and shot volume. He was also red hot going into the break tallying 11 points in his last 10 games including three with the man advantage. He is safe in all formats.
Opponent - NJ
Proj Pts FD - 10.03 DK - 3.05
If you want to save even more at the position tonight, roll with Schultz. His salary on both sites continues to hover in the low mid range mostly due to him skating on the Penguins third defensive pairing. Don't let that discourage you as he also skates on the top powerplay unit with Crosby and Malkin where he has recorded seven of his 21 points.
Also Consider: Mark Giordano(CGY)
Hockey is back and with it comes our NHL projections which help inform these picks every night. When you purchase a DFSR NHL subscription to our base hockey projections you also get access to our brand new NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users *ahem* tackle the NFL season.
If you want to see the numbers behind our projections, create linueps with a single click, or research as deeply as your heart desires, click the button below to test out yourself.
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