Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/22/16

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Point Guard

Goran Dragic FD - $7400 DK - $7400
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 37.17 DK - 39.71
Dragic is coming off a game where he played 45 minutes and scored just 27 fantasy points. Obviously not phenomenal, but not as bad as it seems at first blush. Dragic ran bad in essentially every conceivable category, from FG% (he went just 6/17), to assists, to defensive stats. In anything like an average performance he would have been terrific on that level of opportunity. Tonight he'll square off against the Lakers, who simply do not feature even an average defender at the point guard position. They've allowed the 5th most points per game to opposing point guards this season, and I think Dragic is a high floor, high ceiling option here.

Chris Paul FD - $9200 DK - $9400
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 46.08 DK - 48.51
We wrote this up the last time around, but CP3 has been an actual animal with Blake off the court in the last couple of seasons, and with Blake sidelined for 4-6 weeks he should slide right back into fantasy dominance. We are getting a discount on his price here for two reasons. The first is the Spurs - their defensive reputation certainly precedes them. The second is the fact that his price hasn't adjusted to Blake being out because it hasn't had enough time. He put up 5x points per dollar against the Nuggets on these prices in spite of playing just 26 minutes in a blowout. And the Spurs? They've basically been league average against opposing point guards thanks to Tony Parker's old legs. I love Paul for cash games tonight.

Jeff Teague FD - $7700 DK - $7100
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 38.08 DK - 40.59
Speaking of dudes whose price doesn't match their current opportunity, has anyone at FanDuel or DraftKings been paying attention to what he's been doing recently? He's maintained his solid scoring, but is posting career bests in assists, rebounds, and steals, and a 5 year low in turnovers per game. He's a classic case of incremental improvements across multiple categories leading to a better fantasy commodity that most people are sleeping on. He's topped 42 fantasy points per game in each of his last 4 contests, and I expect that streak to continue against a Boston team that plays the 3rd fastest pace in the league.

Shooting Guard

Josh Richardson FD - $4200 DK - $4800
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.31 DK - 24.89
Courtney Lee FD - $3900 DK - $3800
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 19.74 DK - 21.02
Point guard has a glut of great options, and shooting guard tonight has precious few. I'm lumping Richardson and Lee together here because they fall in the same category - cheap players who play a lot of minutes who tend to not do a ton with said minutes. But here's the thing about bad positions - our lineup optimizer will often pick out cheap guys with reasonable floors just to get away from a position cheaply. That's what you're seeing here. Both Richardson and Lee have excellent match-ups, and small improvements on their recent performances should be enough to get you home here.

Evan Fournier FD - $6000 DK - $6000
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 27.51 DK - 29.52
You don't have to go double cheap to find value at shooting guard today. I put Fournier below the above guys simply because the Magic are pretty erratic in terms of how they deploy guys, but I actually think there's more safety with Fournier than I first thought. The duds in his recent game logs were largely game script driven, and given that Vegas sees this as a 5.5 point game I think he gets his run here. This is also a dream match-up for opposing shooting guards. The Knicks have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards in spite of playing the league's 6th slowest pace. That's an abomination. I love Fournier in any format.

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard FD - $8000 DK - $7800
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 43.07 DK - 45.18
Leonard is as risky as any player in a bad match-up, but with the Spurs, bad match-ups tend to come more in the "we're gonna blow these guys out" category. The Spurs haven't been shy about playing Kawhi big minutes when there's something on the line, and in a game that Vegas sees as basically a pick 'em it stands to reason he'll be out there a while tonight. Kawhi's price is centered around a minutes workload based on the Spurs' frequent blowouts, and the increase in minutes expectation from a close match-up really means something. He's also just a terrible match-up for the Clips' defensive personnel, and particularly without Blake. With no one to size up with him, I think we're in for a treat here.

Carmelo Anthony FD - $7900 DK - $7700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 38.6 DK - 40.78
Melo might be handing over the reins of "best player on the team" to Porzingis, but that doesn't mean he won't go down shooting. He's quietly increased his shots per minute this season in spite of Rose's arrival, and while he's taken a step back in a couple of categories, he's still 95% of the fantasy player he was last season. And Rose's return didn't seem to bother him too much last game, when he launched 25 shots against the Pacers. The Magic have been basically a league average match-up, and on a shallow night at the position this might be enough to get there.

Justise Winslow FD - $4700 DK - $5100
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 23.18 DK - 24.5
Winslow seemed to be playing a bigger role before he went down for a bit, but it appears as though he's rounding back into form. Spoelstra trusted him for 46 minutes in a double overtime game against the Magic, and if he's going to go back to the minutes he was playing pre-injury, we might have a value on his hands. Winslow's doubled his shots per game this season, and while his field goal percentage has gone down, the increase in volume more than makes up the difference. The Lakers are a dream match-up for players of any position, and they're particularly awful against small forwards, ranking dead last in the entire league against them.

If Rodney McGruder is out again, I'd give strong consideration to James Johnson.

Power Forward

Thaddeus Young FD - $5000 DK - $5400
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.85 DK - 27.52
Thad was a DFS darling early in the season with Paul George out, but he had been largely disappointing for quite some time after that. Until recently! Young supplied the whole package of his talents in each of his last two games, averaging 30.5 fantasy points on 37 minutes per game. And while he got an outsized number of shots relative to expectation in his last game, I think the rest of it is pretty much sustainable. Here's the thing - Young doesn't need to pay 6x points per dollar for you to feel fine having him in your lineups. If he's going to play high 30s minutes per game, it'll be tough for him to duck under the 4x points per dollar floor that he's been at recently, especially if Ellis keeps missing time and Glenn Robinson keeps standing out there doing nothing. I mentioned Boston's PACE factor earlier, and that's still in play here - they've allowed the 7th most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. I'm going to regret saying this probably, but Thad looks plenty safe here.

LaMarcus Aldridge FD - $6500 DK - $6400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.2 DK - 30.64
Another Spur that's improperly priced for close games. Aldridge has averaged 30 fantasy points per game this season in just 32 minutes per game, but he plays a 36-37 minute rotation in close contests. If you're playing DFS you're hopefully at least passable at math, so adding 16% more minutes will often yield 16% more production. Some of that is offset by the Clippers solid interior defense, except missing Blake really hurts in that regard thanks to their lousy big man depth. I kind of love Aldridge here to be honest.

Kristaps Porzingis FD - $7800 DK - $7600
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 35.91 DK - 37.92
The Zinger isn't the safest way to invest just under $8,000 thanks to some minutes uncertainty, but the times to cash in on his upside are in these match-ups that rate to be fairly close. The Magic are tougher in the interior with Biyombo in the starting line-up, but Porzingis' unconventional inside outside game is actually a pretty bad match-up for them. I think he'll run above expectation in terms of points while giving away a little on the glass, leading to an overall line you'll be quite happy with.

If the Brooklyn/Warriors game stays close somehow, both Trevor Booker and Draymond Green have a great shot to pay off big.

Center

Hassan Whiteside FD - $9300 DK - $9200
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 47.13 DK - 48.95
We've talked at length on the podcast about Good Hassan and Bad Hassan, and we're currently riding the wave of Good Hassan to the max. We're on 5 straight games of 15+ rebounds per game, and his alertness on the glass is also helping generate more put-backs and blocks. The Lakers, meanwhile, play their center like 20 minutes per game at the most. This game is going to be a crime scene, and I'd be happy to lock him in in any format.

Al Horford FD - $8000 DK - $6800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 39.48 DK - 41.23
Horford's price has climbed dramatically recently, so hopefully you were along for the ride in the same way we were. It turns out going from a league average pace team to a top 3 pace team makes a difference, and like his ex-teammate Teague, he's added to his totals in several statistical categories this season. Indiana plays a top ten pace themselves, and Horford looks like a very solid bet to pay value tonight. With a gun to my head I'd take Whiteside over him in any format, but he is a solid way to get separation if Whiteside reverts back into Bad Hassan.

Nikola Vucevic FD - $7000 DK - $6400
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 37.21 DK - 38.67
Pretty much just a big upside play. He's paid 6x+ in 2 of the 3 games he's played in since returning from injury, and he's been so much better than Biyombo that I personally believe we'll see him go out there for mid-30s minutes at some point. The Knicks are an out of sight match-up for centers as well, allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to opposing 5s this season. I'm not playing a back-up in my 50/50s tonight, but in my tournaments... we'll see.

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