Daily Fantasy NBA Basketball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/20/16

It took me a little longer than usual to write these picks mostly because I was congratulating DFSR user FortyOZNJ on his $25,000 win on DraftKings. He used our pro tools to absolute crush it. It was a banner night with another user and, AllDayLJ chopping up the FanDuel  100K tournament. Why haven't you signed up yet?

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Point Guards

Chris Paul FD - $9600 DK - $9200
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 44.66 DK - 47.18
With Blake Griffin on the shelf for the foreseeable future, the Clippers become all CP3's squad. Paul sees about a 10% usage bump when Blake is off the court and the Clips are much less likely to be involved in blowouts on the high end. In the last two games Blake missed Paul's averaged a 23/17/7 though it's worth mentioning that one of those games was a double OT loss against the Nets. So yes, the numbers are a little inflated, but Paul was far and away the team leader in shot volume and should be again tonight.

Darren Collison FD - $5500 DK - $4900
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.57 DK - 33.5
The key for Collison is the Kings need to avoid the blowout. That's an issue for them at times because they aren't that good a team. Collison's mostly a price play here against a Portland team allowing more than league average scoring to the opposing point guard. Considering Collison has an elite teammate in Boogie, the assist numbers don't come in bunches mostly because the latter trends toward iso-ball. But if Collison can hit the corner three and stay on the court in a close one then you are getting a deal on him for both sites.

Goran Dragic FD - $7500 DK - $7600
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 37.35 DK - 39.83
Point of honesty: I write the picks out of order sometimes as some guys lend themselves to easier fingers-to-keyboard than others. I was mostly done when I found out through our chat room that we had multiple DFSR users in sweats for top prizes on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I lost all concentration for the reasoning behind Dragic. He's great, been playing with a high usage rate, blah, blah, blah. I can't focus. System says play the guy and system been crushing.
Consider Kyrie Irving who should see an uptick in usage with Kevin Love out

Shooting Guards

Giannis Antetokounmpo FD - $10200 DK - $9800
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 51.82 DK - 54.11
I'm not one to use the sample size of one matchup as the basis for a projection (and our system certainly doesn't look at it even in the slightest). But it has to make you feel at least a little better that Giannis' first game against the Cavs this season saw him put up a 34/12/5 line in 34 minutes. It's an encouraging sign going up against Lebron and company and Vegas sees this as a close game with around 212 implied points. The Greek Freak's short term has been nothing short of amazing with the guy putting it all together in every facet of the game. The big news is the confidence in his shot and he put up a combined 50 shots in the home-and-home against the Bulls. That's somewhat of an outlier, but it speaks to him getting to the lane early and often. I can see a similar result tonight against the Cavs, or at least a shot volume well into the higher teens and the minutes pushing 40 if the game stays close.

Jamal Crawford FD - $3600 DK - $4100
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 20.42 DK - 21.89
J.J. Redick FD - $4100 DK - $4300
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 20.98 DK - 22.94
With Blake off the court now, so much more of the scoring load is going to fall on the rest of the Clippers. While Crawford likely won't start (they need his scoring on the second unit) he is aided, from a fantasy perspective, by not having to share the court with Blake. Crawford sees an 8% usage bump with no Griffin and I suspect he plays more minutes than usual if the Clippers run more three guard sets. Some of that might fall on Austin Rivers too, but I think these two guys see the biggest bump in either minutes and/or usage. Crawford especially could be staring down the barrel at a ton of shots and extended run. Reddick should see more minutes on the whole as they need to keep the core group together. Redick's minutes' increased in each of the last two games Griffin missed. Playing them together on FanDuel might not even be the worst idea considering the position is shallow and I think the combo covers a lot of your bases on the bigger slate.

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard FD - $8400 DK - $8600
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 42.76 DK - 44.77
This game's shaping up to be the appointment television for the night. It's tough to run the Rockets on the other side of the ball simply because the Spurs are so solid on defense and the implied total is much less than the Houston average. But not so going the other way with Kawhi and company. He hasn't had to play much in the short term with three of their last four games getting out of hand. Kawhi's price has stuck in this upper middle tier thanks to the aforementioned minutes' issues and some variable performances as well. But I love the potential pace of this matchup and in their previous two meeting this season he played 39 and 38 minutes respectively. I suspect Pop runs him the same way tonight, using his Leonard's shut down defense to deal with Harden here and there.

Robert Covington FD - $5200 DK - $5700
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 26.04 DK - 28.69
Could the Sixers *gasp* being solidifying their rotations? Are we seeing the end of the forever 29 minutes or less from everyone on the team? I don't totally trust it, but Brett Brown does seem to have at least settled on running Covington consistently since he came back from injury. He's averaging north of 32 minutes per game and getting up more than five looks from beyond the arc. The rebounding's fine enough and he's always been able to pitch in on the defensive end. I see him as a higher floor guy against a weaker Pelicans' team.

LeBron James FD - $10400 DK - $9600
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 48.01 DK - 51.4
He's lower on the small forwards list because I don't exactly love the points per dollar you're seeing on this price, but more of the scoring burden should fall to Lebron tonight with Love out. On the season, James sees about a 5% usage bump with Love off the court and I suspect you see him try and get to the lane more in this one. The problem is the Bucks are a league average team in terms of pace and top ten in defensive efficiency. It isn't a fantastic spot overall for Lebron. But his floor's as high as anyone if you think he feels the need to control even more of the game, especially in the usage department.

Power Forwards

Kristaps Porzingis FD - $7800 DK - $7800
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 40.84 DK - 43.15
He's the Knicks' best player and is the one bright spot they can look to for the future with a roster full off aging/ over-the-hill big money guys. Jeff Hornacek has no issue running 'Staps major minutes, as well he should considering the versatility the second year pro brings to the game. He's increased his usage in the short term thanks in some part to Rose being off the court with Melo missing some time as well. Both will be back tonight, but I still like Zinger in this matchup. He's a mismatch for Thad Young (size) and Myles Turner (speed). The Pacers, as a team, are a league average defense but rank well below average against the opposing power forward. Without a bevy of high-priced guys to spend all the way up on, middling with upper tier guys like Kristaps might be the way to go.

Marvin Williams FD - $4600 DK - $4900
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.93 DK - 27.64
He's seen the minutes stabilize some in the short term thanks to a hot shooting hand over the last couple of games. Don't expect the 60% from three to continue, but it's encouraging to see Williams get his shots up from behind the arc. The Hornets need him to stretch opposing D's for Walker drive and kicks as well as the foul line extended pick and role. This is a fantastic matchup against the Lakers who rank second to last in the league in defensive efficiency. Williams is still coming cheap if you think he sees around thirty minutes.

Nikola Jokic FD - $5900 DK - $6400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.62 DK - 31.16
The Clippers are without Blake Griffin and you'd suspect this compromises their interior defense to some degree. Now Jokic will be matched up with DeAndre Jordan, which could cause some foul issue (a problem for Jokic) but if the Nuggets have him in the lineup and want to keep him on the court then he's still a bargain (especially on FanDuel) at these prices. He's coming off a monster game against the Mavs last night and I'm not concerned with the back-to-back. Jokic can do everything you'd want in a fantasy commodity with the only real question mark coming in the form of his projected court time.

Centers

Joel Embiid FD - $7200 DK - $7600
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 39.03 DK - 41.21
It’s really hard to roster a $7K+ player who’s absolute minutes’ upside is capped at 27. But Embiid isn’t your average player and few other guys in the league command as much attention, or get as many shots up on a per minute basis. Embiid, in only 27 minutes last game went 33/10/1/3/2 on 17 shots against the Nets. That’s just stupid. This matchup against the Pelicans is fairly choice as they’ve spent the season getting lit up by opposing centers on the boards. The price doesn’t leave tons of room for upside because of the minutes’ restriction, but Embiid does still have a solid floor in this matchup.

Hassan Whiteside FD - $9000 DK - $8700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 46.18 DK - 47.86
Keep the game close and stay out of foul trouble. That’s basically the recipe for Whiteside as long as he’s engaged in the actual play on the court (I suppose another piece of the puzzle). Whiteside’s rebounding totals in the short term (and really over the course of the season) are just absurd. Over the last four games he’s averaged 18 boards per and is at about 15 for the season. Those numbers give him such a high floor and he’s also been able to score, averaging around 18 points per game on the season. This matchup against Orlando is about league average all things considered, but if you think Whiteside plays minutes in the mid 30’s then he’s a cash game consideration for sure. I like him a bit more on DK where you get the prospect of the double-double bonus.

Myles Turner FD - $6300 DK - $6300
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 36 DK - 37.29
He went nuts last night against the Wiz with a 20/8/5 (blocks) line in 33 minutes before fouling out late in the 4th quarter. The minutes are encouraging for Turner as are the shots. With Monta Ellis off the court, Turner’s become more a part of the offense, running pick and rolls with Teage to open up the inside-out game. He’ll shoot the occassional three and does create mismatches with opposing D’s. He could give Noah fits in this one.

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