Daily Fantasy Football Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 16 12/24/16

It's Christmas Week in the NFL and that means a total and complete shift in our football viewing habits. Namely, all of the games are on Saturday this week. Yup, it threw me off too. But hey, it's a great excuse to sit around and sweat football on the 24th. There are a bunch of interesting values heading into a weird week in the NFL.

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QUARTERBACKS

Drew Brees FD 8500 DK 7400
Opponent TB
Proj Points FD - 23.72 DK - 24.55
Nobody turns on a person faster than the DFS community. Drew Brees went from super-consistent industry darling to the WOAT with breathtaking speed, if two weeks ago Twitter was to be believed. And then he dropped 400 yards and 4 touches against the Cardinals last week. The truth about Drew Brees is that he's one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks in all of football, with just a small handful of performances this season that you'd be unhappy with on these prices. That two of those games happened to come recently is honestly neither here nor there. Brees leads the NFL in yards and touchdowns, and is 2nd in completion percentage. He's a stud's stud, and he isn't priced like one. He'll roll it back against Tampa Bay this week, and while one of his worst games of the season was against them, I'm not ready to look past the fact that they've allowed the 5th highest yards per attempt to opposing QBs this season. If anything this just drives down Brees' ownership percentage, making him an even juicier spot for us.

Andrew Luck FD 8300 DK 7000
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 22.92 DK - 24
Luck ran into some terrible... luck last week against Minnesota, as the game got out of hand quickly and his role was reduced to dude-who-hands-the-ball-to-Frank-Gore. And you know what? He still wasn't bad on his price here. Luck is basically a more consistent, lower ceiling version of Drew Brees, which makes him a very attractive cash game option this week. Oakland is just a fantastic match-up for opposing QBs as well - they've allowed 7.8 yards per attempt this season (worse even than Tampa Bay listed above) and Vegas has this as the highest total game of the week. No weather concerns is a big deal here as well - Luck could be a great option for any format frankly.

Jameis Winston FD 8000 DK 6500
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 22.37 DK - 23.56
Who's ready to go back down the Jameis Winston well with me? Anybody? Nobody? Okay, fair enough. The last time the Bucs and Saints met it was supposed to be a barn burner, and it wound up looking more like a barn that had already burnt down. The 16-11 final took everybody by surprise, and unsurprisingly Jameis was pretty bad in spite of his team winning the game. Still, Vegas sees this as the 2nd highest total game of the week, and Jameis is priced a tier below the other big names (particularly on DraftKings). I'm not sure you want to pay this price on FanDuel, but like Brees, I'm more willing to trust the general awfulness of the Saints' passing defense over the course of the season (they're tied with the Raiders in terms of overall futility) rather than over-weighting the one particular time where these two teams clashed. The upside here is real, and it's a great time to cash in on a guy that has a pretty low industry perception.

RUNNING BACKS

Lesean McCoy FD 9100 DK 9000
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 19.32 DK - 21.22
Shady’s coming off a huge week against the lowly Browns who continue to allow other teams to just run all the hell over them. McCoy averaged an insane 8.1 yards per carry on his way to a 19/153/2 line. He was just ripping off yards and though that YPC is an outlier, dude is still a 5.5 YPC on the season which is the highest in the league (by far) among running backs with anywhere close to his total carries. While not the Browns, Miami does rank 22nd in DVOA against the rush this season and the Bills come in as slight favorites (-3.5) at home. The one knock on Shady is he doesn’t get the goal line touches for Buffalo which means his touchdown upside comes from breaking off slightly longer runs. He’s still been able to find pay dirt, but it’s a concern for overall upside when you aren’t the feature back down and close. Still think he’s a clear cash game play this week with both Bell and DJ in touch matchups.

Ty Montgomery FD 6300 DK 5900
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 15.85 DK - 17.99
Minnesota is a top ten DVOA defense this season, though it should be noted that a big part of that comes from how much they handle the pass. They’re about league average against the run and Green Bay comes in with a -6.5 line implying a favorable game script for Montgomery. Ty entered last week as the RB1 and garnered 75% of the running back carries. He won’t replicate the 10+ YPC, but he doesn’t need to at these prices. If he’s in for mid-teens carries and 3-4 targets in the passing game then I think he’s cash game viable on FanDuel. It’s a little close on DraftKings where he’s no longer WR eligible. It can often feel weird playing a dude after a big price increase, but I think he’s a solid mid-tier RB whose price hasn’t fully caught up to the opportunity.

Jordan Howard FD 7200 DK 6300
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 16.97 DK - 18.08
One thing’s for certain: Howard is the RB1 in Chicago and no longer has anyone butting up against his opportunity in this offense. He handled 17 of the 19 Bear running plays last week in the loss to Green Bay and was effective against a stout Packer run D that ranks top ten in DVOA against the rush. He should have a much easier time here against a 27th-ranked Washington coming off Jonathan Stewart running wild on them. Howard’s usage on both the ground and through the air (4/23 in the passing game last week) puts him on the safer side even in a game the Bears enter as underdogs (+3).

A Note on the San Diego Running Backs:
Look, anytime a team plays Cleveland you have to consider their running backs. It’s a nearly universal truth that opponents will run wild on the Browns who rank dead last against the run this season. The problem is knowing who it’ll be. As of right now Melvin Gordon is questionable to return to the lineup. He’d be an expensive/ risky play even if active for Week 16. Otherwise, I think going back to Kenneth Farrow would be a perfectly plausible move even with dude’s lack of performance in Week 15. I really can’t overstate just how bad the Browns are against the run and just 15 projected carries and 3 targets for Farrow would make him an excellent cash game play. We have to take a wait-and-see approach on this one.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Julian Edelman FD 6700 DK 6900
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 14.71 DK - 18.56
This will be Edelman's lowest price for the rest of the season, and I can almost guarantee it. He's flying somewhat under the radar thanks to a relatively harmless 13 catches and 148 yards over the last two weeks, but it's very unwise to analyze those performances without context. He was facing off against Denver and Baltimore - the 2nd and 5th worst match-ups in the league - and STILL performed reasonably well. The reason? His absurd target shared. With Gronk out for the season Edelman has been targeted twenty-seven times in the last two weeks, and that average could actually climb this week against the Jets. They've allowed the 7th most yards per attempt to opposing passers this season, and Revis himself has come out and said he's lost a step or two. I'm expecting a huge Edelman game here, and he'll be in all my lineups.

Cameron Meredith FD 5500 DK 4700
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 13.8 DK - 16.83
It's always dicey to try and figure out where a new quarterback will focus his attention, and our skepticism of Meredith's role with Jeffery returning got the better of us last week. Meredith hauled in 9 balls on 13 targets, putting up 104 yards against the Packers. And more importantly, he seemed to be Barkley's first read on many of those routes. Their 2nd unit relationship seems to have carried over on to the big stage, and if he's going to touch double digit targets he's just drastically under-priced relative to his performance. Josh Norman will likely chase Jeffery around in this one, leaving Meredith free to run wild over the middle and gobble up those short yardage chunks that add up to big time long term performance. I like him as a high floor cash game play with big tournament upside if he happens to get in the end zone.

Jordy Nelson FD 7800 DK 7000
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 15.48 DK - 18.38
For back to back weeks Jordy Nelson has wound up an odd man looking in on our optimal line-ups. First due to match-up and weather concerns with Seattle, and then due to weather concerns against the Bears. What we learned is that he and Rodgers have figured out how to connect regardless of the weather. The 165 yards and 2 touchdowns he scored in that time speak to both how the Packers prioritize him offensively in both the middle of the field and the Red Zone, and squaring off against Minnesota shouldn't change that much. I'm not sure this is a week where we really want to be paying up even in the upper-middle range for Nelson, but if you do, he looks like a pretty safe option.

Rishard Matthews FD 5700 DK 4900
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 14.51 DK - 17.19
We were worried that Matthews' run of big yardage totals would be unsustainable thanks to his relatively low target share, but he proved us wrong on both counts last Sunday - putting up 105 yards on just 4 catches while being targeted 10 times. It's clear now that Tennessee had no intention of trying to pass on Denver's ferocious pass rush, and in a more normal game script, Matthews looks to be an 8-10 target per game guy. Not to beat this drum again - but that kind of opportunity is worth more than these prices. I believe Meredith to be the safer cash game option, but if you want a guy who could provide big upside on a low cost, Matthews might be your guy.

Consider: Golden Tate for the short slates you can play him on.

TIGHT ENDS

Ryan Griffin FD 4500 DK 3300
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 11.35 DK - 14.5
We were able to sniff out some value on Griffin leading into Week 15 (hat tip to Casey Carruthers on that one) with his role set to expand considering C.J. Fiedorowicz was out for the season. It's always tough to evaluate replacements like Griffin but we were fairly confident in the projection because he'd been involved in the offense even in the back up tight end role. Moving him to TE1 seemed like a perfect time to punt the position and he turned in a fantastic 8/85 performance. He isn't a favorite to convert 100% of his targets again, but I still like the potential usage in the offense especially with Savage behind center now. He's still basically the minimum on FanDuel and cheap on DraftKings. Will likely be our top TE in cash this week because he gets away from the position cheap.

Cameron Brate FD 5600 DK 3900
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 11.36 DK - 13.9
I don't love paying roughly 20% for about the same projected target share, but Brate has a fantastic matchup against the Saints this week who are a bottom third team defending the pass and the opposing TE this season. Brate does get Red Zone usage with targets in each of the last three games and touchdowns in two of them. Again, I like the price on Griffin more for about the same implied targets, but Brate does have a potentially better game script and is playing a much worse defense.

DEFENSE/ SPECIAL TEAMS

New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
The Pats aren't a great defense (20th in DVOA) but are solid against the run (2nd) and the Jets come into this game with about the lowest implied total (13.5) you'll ever see in a professional football game. Honestly, that number made me chuckle out loud because it's so absurd. The Jets will trot Bryce Petty out there again after he took a hit from the Dolphins' DEs last week that would have killed most everyday humans. The game's in Foxboro and it's tough to imagine the Jets doing anything here. The sites did price correct the Patriots based on the matchup, so they aren't cheap. But this sure seems like one to pay up for because of how Vegas views the game as a whole.

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons
All right, hear me out on this one. First off, I'm taking price directly into consideration as Carolina comes in basically the cheapest defense on both sites this week (give or take $100 or the Jets). The rank first in the league in sacks (40T), second in interceptions (16T) and 12th in DVOA. That's the good news. The bad news is they face an efficient Falcons' squad projected to put up points. Hence the cheap price tag here. This is merely an upside play for the price if you think they can make up some of the scoring by getting to Matt Ryan. I actually don't mind it as a price play but I'm acknowledging the significant risk.

Strongly consider the Chargers and Packers

Football, baby!

Again, you can grab a free trial of our NFL DFS suite of tools including full projections, optimal NFL lineups and our Player Lab, which includes filters to help you create NFL lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings for any format. It’s a set of tools well beyond anything we’ve ever had, and something we feel will help our users crush it this daily fantasy NFL season.

You can grab a go test it out yourself.