Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins (22) pushes the ball around Toronto Raptors guard Terrence Ross (31) in the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2016, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Stacy Bengs)
Monday's here! Here's how our Sunday went:
1) Football crushed across all sites.
2) My wife and 8 month old broke down in the snow and sleet before basketball.
3) The basketball line-ups missed for the second time in a week.
So, a sad way to go down. But the measure of a man ain't how many times he gets knocked down, but how many times he gets back up. Or something. Let's just talk basketball.
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Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 63.58 DK - 67.51
Russell Westbrook responded to the media's breathless concern about his lack of triple-doubles (over the course of three long games) admirably, I'd say, what with his 26/11/22 against the Suns. You read that correctly - twenty-two assists against the Suns. Oladipo's absence from the line-up has pushed Russ' time of possession to absurd heights, and it's not like there was a lot of room to grow considering he's already just .3 minutes per game behind Harden for the league lead. And today he'll get an even better match-up than he had against Phoenix. The Hawks have allowed the league's 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards thanks to Schroder's sloppy on-ball defense. Expect Westbrook to be a cash game and big tournament staple.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 48.11 DK - 51.42
Let's list our quality PGs by cost, shall we? Wall was less than fantastic against the Clippers (like a lot of people), but was coming off of 4 straight games against fairly tough competition where he paid 4.5x points per dollar on these now increased prices. He's trailed Harden and Westbrook by .1 minutes per game in time of possession in the month of December, and has really come into his own as an offensive player this season. He's added 1.5 shots per game on his already high totals, and has the best FG% and FT% of his career. The Pacers are the 9th best match-up for opposing point guards, and I don't mind Wall as a plan B if you can't pay up for Westbrook.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.23 DK - 36.47
Teague's a funny player, to me, because it sort of feels like we're witnessing a break-out season when in reality he's just doing what he's always done. He's a plus contributor for the position across the board, and slight ticks up in his already strong repertoire will cause excellent value spots. Teague's setting a career high pace for rebounding, and is challenging his career best in assists, and if the sites haven't quite caught up to what he's doing we'll happily benefit. Washington's not the great match-up it used to be, but it's still a league average spot that should yield a pretty high floor for the Pacers' PG.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 23.51 DK - 25.43
Not a whole lot to see here - just a classic daily fantasy basketball price/opportunity mismatch. Hardaway has started 5 straight games, and seems to have established a floor of just under 5x points per dollar. That is, quite simply, an excellent rate for any DFS basketball player. The only possible fly in the ointment here would be if we heard Hardaway was losing his starting job, but until then we'll be playing him pretty much regardless of match-up. It doesn't hurt that the Thunder have played the 6th fastest PACE this season, and that they are missing their ace wing defender in Oladipo. Easy play in any format.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 25.02 DK - 26.39
Gary Harris has quietly established himself as a returned from a long absence to establish himself as a rock solid cash game option on these prices. Harris' season line is a little bit deceptive because the per-game stats are almost identical to last season's, with 1 important difference - the minutes. He's played 7 fewer minutes per game this season, but has actually slightly improved on last year's per game stats. As he is eased back into his normal 30+ minute rotation we're seeing outsized gains on these prices, and they look quite sustainable to me. The Mavericks are a slightly below average match-up, but this is so much more about Harris' inaccurate price than it is the match-up. I'd be comfortable with him anywhere.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 31.02 DK - 33.71
LaVine will be a chalk 50/50 play tomorrow, and with good reason. He's topped 40 minutes in each of his last 3 games, and is paying 5x points per dollar on these prices handily thanks to Thibs' likely irresponsible deployment of him. The Suns have played the 2nd fastest PACE in the league this season, which plays perfectly into LaVine's upbeat style. I think we might have just a little too much value at the cheaper spots at this position, but I wouldn't be surprised to see LaVine find his way into optimal line-ups by tip-off tomorrow.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.34 DK - 35.32
Small forward is a little big messy today, but I love anchoring my first SF slot with Wiggins. The similarities between Wiggins and LaVine are similar, really. He's playing an absurd number of minutes, he's made incremental gains in every statistical category (except for steals) this season, and he's basically the same price. The Suns have taken a step forward defensively overall thsi season, but not at small forward - they've allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season. I like Wiggins quite a bit here.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 31.63 DK - 33.17
Um, it's sort of feeling like a cop-out, but Barnes is actually really similar to Wiggins here. Their prices on FanDuel are identical, and they are separated by just .4 fantasy points per game in terms of overall production this season. The difference between the two for me on any given night will often come down to match-up. And there, surprisingly, Wiggins gets the edge. Denver has shed some of their defensive woes this season, and has allowed the 5th fewest points to opposing small forwards this season. I'm not ready to rule Barnes out thanks to the occasionally unreliable nature of small sample sizes for positional stats here, particularly because Denver has played the 6th fastest pace with the 6th worst defensive efficiency this season. I believe they wind up worse against SF by the end of the season than they are now, and think Barnes will contribute to that tonight.
The uncertain rest of them. Wilson Chandler looks kinda good, except when you consider that he's been really bad in 2 of his 3 starts since returning. Our system likes Thabo Sefolosha, but are his minutes long for this world with the return of Kent Bazemore? On the same subject, can we trust Bazemore to keep playing the same minutes off the bench? I'm not so sure. It's the same story with PJ Tucker and TJ Warren. Can we go back down the Butler well after two bad games? Things are crazy enough at the position tonight that I'll be happy to grab the safety of Wiggins and Barnes.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 27.47 DK - 29.6
Markieff stormed back into daily fantasy prominence in his last game, putting up 23/9/3/1/3 against the Clippers even as the Wizards struggled. He had pretty well established himself as having a floor at 4.6x+ points per dollar, and if he's going to flex upside like this he'll just be an excellent value as long as he remains underpriced. The Pacers, meanwhile, have been a great spot for opposing power forwards this season - allowing the 7th most fantasy points per game to opposing fours. I don't think you can rely on the 40+ fantasy points Morris put up the last time around, but I'd guess our projection for him here is spot on.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.69 DK - 32.24
Jokic has been an enigma these last two games, putting up 52 fantasy points in 39 minutes... but playing just 39 minutes. This is one of those situations where we have to decide if it's wiser to keep a steady hand and figure the minutes will work themselves out, or be concerned that Jokic's particular player profile just doesn't lend itself to playing a starter's set of minutes. To be honest, the picture is a little bit concerning. Only Alex Len has averaged more personal fouls than Jokic while playing fewer minutes than he has, and he averages as many fouls per game as guys like Dwight Howard and Rudy Gobert who play significantly more minutes. But it's not all darkness and despair. The fact is that Jokic is such a disruptive fantasy talent that he almost doesn't NEED 30 minutes per game to pay these prices, and the reality that he will occasionally top 30 minutes as a starter speaks more to his upside than it does cause concern about his floor. I believe his floor is the 4x points per dollar we saw recently, and the best is yet to come.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 38 DK - 40.26
Just a rather safe option if you think the above guys are too volatile. Millsap has averaged 5x points per dollar on these prices since returning from injury, and his role in the Atlanta offense has basically been exactly the same for the last 5 years. That makes the primary consideration for him on a night to night basis the match-up, and I think his spot here is better than it looks at first blush. The Thunder have exactly one excellent interior defender in Steven Adams, and are often able to cheat against other teams' big men by assigning Adams to whomever makes the most sense (since he can cover both positions). They won't be able to do that against the Hawks, especially with Dwight Howard presently in beast mode. I don't know that Millsap has huge upside, but a fast paced game should mean a high floor for him here.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 34.03 DK - 35.34
Turner was a rather chalk play his last time out, and was pretty disappointing all things considered. I think that was largely a function of game script, though. Turner lost both usage and minutes thanks to a game that was out of hand quickly, and his 7 shots were his 3rd lowest total of the season in spite of his recently increased role. I'm going to humbly suggest you flatly ignore his last game, and look more closely at the four games prior when Turner was basically killing it. Turner's price is now basically in line with his season long averages, and since his opportunity is higher now than it had been, I'm still very much a buyer. The Wiz are essentially a league average match-up, and in a game that Vegas sees as a close contest I think we see a return to greatness for Turner in a much more predictable game script.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 44.5 DK - 48.18
If you have the money left to spend by the time you get to center, I'm sure you'll already be considering Karl-Anthony Towns. The Wolves dynamic center just put up another trademark performance against the Rockets, supplying 41/15/5 against them in an overtime tilt a couple of days ago. While Tyson Chandler is a good defender, he's just not near enough to his prime to keep up here. Phoenix's fast pace should tell more of the story than Chandler's individual defense, and I think Towns will be well worth the investment.
For absurd points/$ upside, consider Tyson Chandler.
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View Comments
Yesterday was a close one for me. Finished in the top 1% in the NBA shot on FD last night, between the optimizer and players I liked, 30 points away from 20k. Ended up doubling up across the board yesterday in football. Great analysis, keep it up!!!!!!!!!!
Great article James!
Anybody have a favorite site for team injury news?
Hardaway is not starting. Baze is back
Why aren't my posts working...ugg?
My regards to your wife & daughter...
must have been quite alarming!
Great write-up!