Weekly NFL Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel - Week 15

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Week 15 NFL Stacks

Week 14 is in the books and oh boy, it was a great one. One of our Premium DFSR users, Andrew Morris, took down the DraftKings Milli Maker with one single entry. If you want to check out the breakdown of ANdrew's lineup be sure to go check out the article released earlier this week. Andrew also joined DFSR co-owner Doug Norrie on Thursday's NFL Value Plays Podcast to discuss his lineup construction and Sunday sweat while the games were on. Be sure to check those out.

Before jumping into Week 15 we will, as always, breakdown the stacks that were recommended in last week's article. Let's take a look.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Everything pointed to a big game from Jameis Winston and the Bucs. Things didn't go exactly as planned as the Bucs ended up relying on a run heavy(35 attempts) gameplan limiting Winston to just 26 pass attempts. My initial thought was that Drew Brees didn't have to be great but if he could do just enough against the Bucs defense Winston would be forced to throw 30 or more times. This did not happen as Brees has now gone back to back weeks without throwing a touchdown. This played a huge part in the F grade I am giving the stack but realize that it was the opponent and not a 100% failure by Winston. GRADE F 

New York Giants - The Sunday night game ended up being a boring, slow paced, defensive battle that was mostly a disappointment from a fantasy perspective. I should have seen it coming as it was the second game of the series between the division rivals this season which more time than not favors the defenses. The thought was that it would be a low owned, contrarian approach but what I missed was that these two teams have huge fan followings which ended up leading Eli to the third highest ownership(8%) at the position. If you did play the stack Odell Beckhm Jr. saved the day a bit with a 61 yard touchdown, ending up with four catches on a game high nine targets for 94 yards. GRADE C

Green Bay Packers - The one contrarian approach that did pay off last week was the Packers offense. The combination of the Seahawks highly rated defense and the Rodgers coming off his worst outing since Week 6 helped give the offense very low ownership. Depending on what level of tournaments you played, Rodgers was around the 10th most owned QB(4%) and paid off for owners. He only attempted 23 passes in the game but made the most of them throwing for 246 yards and three touchdowns. The best thing about the performance was that all three touchdowns went to my recommended wide receivers. Jordy Nelson continued to own the target share with a team high seven, catching six of them for just 41 yards but scored twice. Davante Adams has clearly surpassed Randall Cobb as the top secondary option in the offense and caught four of six targets for 104 yards and a touchdown. Continue to target the Packers throw heavy offense. GRADE A

Green Bay Packers
QB - Aaron Rodgers
Elite Option - Jordy Nelson
Secondary Option - Devante Adams

From reviewing how they made us money last week straight into how they can do it again in Week 15. The reason Rodgers shows up on the Player Lab week after week is pretty simple really. Plugging in the "High Team Passing TD & Yardage %" filters quickly narrows the field down to three options(Stafford, Manning, Rodgers). The risky part this week is that both the Lions/Giants and Packers/Bears games have very low Vegas totals. Embrace the risk as it will most likely lead to low ownership once again this week. So why Rodgers over the other two options? It's pretty clear actually. While Rodgers hasn't been putting up the yardage totals we would like, he has tallied 20+ fantasy points in seven of his last eight games while Stafford has only reached 20+ fantasy points four times all year and Eli three. He has a safer floor and clearly has more upside. And this coming from a die hard Vikings fan who has mixed feelings in real life football about Rodgers and the Packers in general. In fantasy, however, you can't let team biases blind you from the bankroll you are trying to build.

Jordy Nelson is the clear #1 option in the offense averaging just under 10 targets per game and making the most of them with 75 receptions on the season and has scored a touchdown in six of his last seven games. Looking at the target chart, it is clear that Adams has taken over as Rodgers favorite secondary option, receiving six or more targets in eight straight games while recording two 100+ yard games in the last three weeks and reachign the endzone three times. Load up on the Packers in a must win situation on Sunday.

Buffalo Bills
QB - Tyrod Taylor
Elite Option - Sammy Watkins
Secondary Option - Marquise Goodwin, Robert Woods

After the Packers things get a little cloudy when it comes to stacking. There are some good quarterbacks in questionable matchups(Brees vs. ARI, Luck vs. MIN, Big Ben vs. CIN) and then there are some struggling or weak fantasy quarterbacks in great situations(Palmer vs. NO, Kaepernick vs. ATL, Smith vs. TEN). Add to that list Tyrod Taylor who hasn't thrown for 300 yards once this year but has shown upside for tournaments with five games eclipsing 20 fantasy points. I probably won't play him on FanDuel with a mid $7K tag but on DraftKings he is a near slam dunk in an elite matchup against the Browns. As we seen last week with Andrew's Milli Maker winning lineup, you don't necessarily have to get the elite game from your quarterback but if he comes with a discount you can spend up at some other crucial positions. This will be the case this week with Taylor who is all but guaranteed to not give us the passing yard bonus but provides that added value with his legs and like James mentioned in the picks article, Cleveland ranks right near the bottom of the league in both Defense vs. the Pass(28th) and Defense vs. the Rush(32nd). The elite option to pair him with will be Sammy Watkins who is starting to look more healthy each week and is coming off his first touchdown of the season. The Bills are not a team you are going to want multiple receivers in your lineup but if you want to go even cheaper take a look at Marquise Goodwin who is a deep threat, home run play option while Robert woods will provide a little more safety as the #2 option in the passing game.

Oakland Raiders
QB - Derek Carr
Options - Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree

In daily fantasy when playing tournaments it is important to try and separate yourself from the field with some possible low ownership plays. The best way to do this is to roster high end players coming off a bad game. Another way is to target players with questionable tags going into the weekend. Enter the Oakland Raiders who cover both avenues. Derek Carr and the Raiders are coming off their worst game of the season, losing to the Chiefs last Thursday night. I don't take too much from it as Carr and the Raiders are a young team who were in a crazy atmosphere in Arrowhead. They return to California this week but still on the road as they travel to San Diego to face a Chargers team that has been crushed by injuries on both sides of the ball.  Looking at the Player Lab, they rank 24th in Defense vs. the Pass and average 261.4 passing yards against per week. Carr has twice gone under 10 fantasy points in a game this season but the upside is impossible to avoid as he has recorded eight games with 20+ fantasy points including a monster 39 points game on the road in Tampa Bay.

The risky part of the stack will be choosing which receiver to pair with Carr. Both have been limited in practice(so has 70% of the league this late in the season) but appear available to play on Sunday afternoon.

Cooper and Crabtree have shared the targets this season and have almost identical production. Cooper has 1,010 yards with four touchdowns(16.5 DK/12.7 FD Pt Avg) while Crabtree has 806 yards with seven touchdowns(15.7 DK/12.3 FD Pt Avg). This will be a scenario where I play multiple lineups with different variations of Carr/Cooper and Carr/Crabtree and even some with both in the lineup. If both are cleared and healthy it appears Crabtree will have the better matchup as the Chargers Casey Hayward is projected to shadow Cooper.

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