Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns, left, is tied up by Denver Nuggets forward Joffrey Lauvergne, of France, during the first half of an NBA basketball game Friday, Oct. 30, 2015, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
TGIS! We have a huge slate of hoops to go through for a Saturday, Saturday Night football, and we're coming up on College Football Bowl Season! What could be better? Crushing the bad guys at DFS. Tonight's slate is an interesting blend of uncertain injury situations, big spreads, and super-fast paced offenses. Let's dive in.
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Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 34.13 DK - 36.43
Teague is a great way to start our cash game lineups tonight with Ellis still shelved with his groin injury. He's paid easy 5x+ points per dollar value in 2 of the 3 games since Ellis went out, and he only missed against the Heat due to foul trouble mucking up his minutes. Teague's usage has been 28% better (relatively) with Ellis off the floor this season, and the double digit assists he posted in both contests is very reassuring. If he has 18+ shot upside (like he did against New Orleans), he'll be a phenomenal value against a league average Detroit defense.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 32.41 DK - 34.9
Another slam dunk mid-range value guy, Schroder has averaged 5x points per dollar on these prices for since he inherited more minutes on November 27th. Schroder remains a tremendous value simply because his season long stats don't reflect his currently opportunity and usage whatsoever. In his new role he's averaging ~17 shots per game and ~8 assists, and his price just hasn't quite caught up. Like Teague, Schroder has a league average match-up with the Hornets, and he looks to have a very solid floor even if he doesn't have a huge points per dollar ceiling.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 42.15 DK - 45.31
Here's a riskier play for your big tournaments. Lillard is coming fresh off a 40/10 beasting of the Nuggets, and will ply his trade against one of the league's fastest teams in Golden State. Lillard presents a more difficult match-up than many PGs for the Warriors for a rather odd reason - his above average back-court running mate. The Dubs won't be able to stick Klay on Lillard because McCollum would outclass Curry by too much, and that will leave the lesser defender to chase Lillard around. This game has the highest total on the night thanks to the Warriors' 3rd fastest in the league PACE, and if the Trail Blazers manage to keep this close, it will be because Dame goes off. It's a big "if," though. Vegas has the Dubs favored by 13.5, and there's a reasonable chance this one gets out of hand. I can't recommend Lillard for your cash game purposes, but the opportunity for a monster performance is very real here.
Keep an eye on the Derrick Rose situation. If he sits again there is still absurd value across the various Knicks guards.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 25.52 DK - 26.91
Gary Harris was sidelined for about a month with a foot injury, but you would never know it the way he came thundering back to action Thursday night against the Blazers. While he was only supposed to see 28 minutes of action he ran for 32 and put up 18 points and 6 assists netting 37.8 FanDuel points. I expect Harris to be the chalk play of the night and a cash game must, and if this is the type performance we can look forward to on a nightly basis then there’s a lot of room for that salary to grow before I consider the fade.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 35.16 DK - 37.87
As of this writing, Batum has paid nearly 5x his salary Friday night against the Celtics with a little over a quarter still to go. This is just another chapter in the story of Nic Batum's December. A December in which he’s making 75% of his free throws, averaging 31 minutes per game and a fantasy point per minute. Saturday night the Hornets head to Atlanta to take on a fast paced Hawks team in the bottom ten against the position defensively. If Batum can continue doing what he’s been doing then the salary is poised to rise, so now is the time get in in while the value is real, even if Walker's return does cut into his usage.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 30.96 DK - 33.38
The Timberwolves are struggling as a team this year, but several of their young stars have put up impressive performances - none more impressive than Zach Lavine. In 7 games this month, Lavine's seen a tremendous run of minutes, going no less then 35 and upwards of 43 just this past Tuesday against the Bulls. During that run he dropped 24 points and 6 assists to go along with 6 rebounds and a block. If his shot isn’t falling he can run into trouble, but going against the Beard he should be able to manage enough open looks to easily surpass value. I like him in tournaments and I love him in cash games.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 33.61 DK - 35.83
Wilson Chandler is a poor man's Anthony Davis, as you’re always a little worried about his injury history when rostering him. But at least you’re not investing 20% of your salary in him. The Nuggets seem to be content going small for the time being and Wilson looks to be a key part of that. He ran the boards for 35 minutes against Portland to the tune of 33.1 fantasy points, so it doesn’t seem as if that hip is anything to be too concerned about. The Knicks are among the leagues worst against small forwards and I’m content locking Chandler in for all formats.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 33.67 DK - 35.49
Wiggins took charge against Chicago on Tuesday, putting up 23 points and scoring 9 rebounds in 39 minutes to the tune of over 7x points per dollar for those who rostered him (including, ahem, users of our lineup optimizer). Wiggins is one of the safest guys at the position thanks to the fact that he's dipped below 35 minutes only twice in his last 10 games. Saturday night he draws a nice matchup against Houston, who are about league average against the position. On the 2nd half of a back to back, he should have no trouble hitting his shot against Trevor Ariza and his defensive indifference.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 50.34 DK - 53.59
A well rested Cavs team will host the Lakers tonight after coach Lue held James and company back from making the trip to Memphis. Vegas has this as one of the higher scoring affairs of the night and Cleveland, rightfully so, are 18 point favorites. This makes me like James as more of a tournament play, as even in games where the Cavs run away he is usually good for a minimum of 32 minutes and 5X points per dollar. Should the Lakers find a way to keep this one competitive Lebron could very well put up a monster fantasy performance.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 30.28 DK - 31.82
I'm legitimately distressed about Nikola Jokic's last performance. Like, almost therapy territory. Jokic was an every-lineup guy in our line-up optimizer in his last game. He's priced to his performances as a back-up, and he averaged 1.25 fantasy points per minute in a good match-up with the Blazers. So we're all happy, right? Wrong. Dead wrong. Jokic got in foul trouble and saw a dramatic minutes reduction, and put up just 24 fantasy points. In a weird way, though, it's almost reassuring. If he's going to get another crack at the starting gig, I think we can pretty safely say that that's his floor. The Knicks have been fairly tough on opposing power forwards in spite of their above average pace, but Jokic presents a bad match-up for them down low on account of his strength in the post and on the boards. I expect Jokic to top 30 minutes in this game, and believe our projection system is actually pretty low on him here.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 29.74 DK - 31.16
Power forward is kind of a zoo tonight. Lots of good players with bad match-ups like Randle or Paul Millsap, reasonable options in likely blowouts like Kevin Love and Draymond Green, and then there are plays like Gorgui Dieng. His recent game log isn't going to excite you, but there's a decent amount going in his favor. The first is the minutes. Thibs is going Thibs things in Minnesota, and when the game stays close you can rely on Gorgui for a 36+ minute rotation. And then there's the match-up. The twin towers in Minny present Houston with some pretty serious problems. They really only have one interior defender in Clint Capela, and he'll have his hands more than full with Karl-Anthony Towns. Look for the Wolves to capitalize on this mismatch, and I expect Dieng to have a significantly higher usage rate than he has recently.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 37.52 DK - 39.54
A juicy Lativian Gang-Banger spot? Don't mind if I do. Kristaps reinforced his well-earned reputation of being a swingy daily fantasy commodity in a fantastic match-up with the Dubs, where he disappeared completely en route to 12 fantasy points in 35 minutes on the court. And in the two games prior he averaged fifty seven fantasy points. Oy. The Nuggets haven't exactly been a fantastic match-up for opposing power forwards this season, but their big men aren't exactly specialists in taking on inside-outside threats like the Zinger. I'm not sure you can call him safe (ever), but the upside here is very real.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 32.22 DK - 33.41
Turner represents the exact kind of DFS play I like the best. He's put up 5x-6x points per dollar in each of his last 4 games, and he's been an easy bet for 5x points per dollar as a starter on these prices all season long. Monta Ellis' shots will still be available for re-distribution, and Turner is both playing more minutes and shooting more shots (almost 30% more shots) than his season averages. The sites haven't come close to accounting for Turner's day in, day out performances, and I believe he has a super high floor and a great ceiling even in a tough match-up with the Pistons.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 43.01 DK - 45.15
Things get a little dicier after Turner, for me. When things get dicey, I like to zero in on consistent minutes, and Towns has certainly been providing those. As long as the game stays close (and Vegas has this at just a 3.5 point spread), Towns has been locked into a 39 minute rotation. Towns has averaged better than a fantasy point per minute this season, and playing against the league's 9th fastest team should mean he exceeds his season-long averages proportionally. I'm not sure he has a through-the-roof ceiling, but the 43 point projection we have for him looks very safe if you wind up with his salary left over after filling the rest of your positions tonight.
For upside, we can consider Andre Drummond. He's put up 17 or more rebounds in 3 of his last 4 games (as of this writing), and that kind of rebounding upside can lead to insane fantasy totals from time to time. He can also disappear from time to time thanks to foul trouble or his inability to shoot free-throws, so I'm not sure this is a great cash game play. Still, he's a very reasonable option if you want to go against the grain a bit.
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View Comments
+1 for the Lativian Gang Banger reference.