Daily Fantasy MMA Picks for UFC on Fox 22 - 12/17/16

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This card is full of uncertainty, which is both awesome and terrifying. UFC on Fox 22 presents us with very few, if any, sure things or safe plays. There’s a lot of value in the mid and upper tiers and with so many razor thin fights, Saturday will be all about putting yourself in the best possible position. I expect more than a few finishes on this card so let’s get to the picks and try to build a solid core for both cash and GPP lineups.

Note – I’ll be checking the comments section right until lineup lockup, so let’s get the conversation going. I mean, what’s better than talking daily fantasy?

VEGAS FAVORITE ($8,500+)

Luis Henrique da Silva ($9,000)

Vegas Line: -225
Finish Prop: -160
Career Record: 12-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Record In Last 5: 5-0
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  6.61
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 0.00
Finishes: 11 KO / 1 Sub / 8 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: None
Last Time Out: W, 2^nd Round Submission (Armbar) – Joachim Christensen

In a battle of unbeaten Light Heavyweight fighters, Luis Henrique da Silva stands out as the clear favorite and has one of the highest ceilings on the card. da Silva is 2-0 in the UFC and impressed with his cardio last time out in a second round submission win. That hasn’t been “Frankenstein’s” normal path to victory though as he is also a power striker. da Silva is a -225 favorite and boasts the best Inside the Distance prop on the card at -160 to get a stoppage. He takes on Paul Craig, who is a UFC newcomer that has displayed plenty of holes in his game on the regional scene. Craig seems willing to work off his back and despite securing submission wins with that approach, it’s not likely to work against UFC caliber fighters. I think da Silva has the advantage wherever this fight goes and I expect an early finish from Frankenstein.

Prediction: da Silva – 1^st Round TKO

MID-RANGE TARGET ($7,600-$8,400)

James Moontasri ($7,800)

Vegas Line: -110
Finish Prop: +195
Career Record: 9-4
UFC Record: 2-3
Record In Last 5: 2-3
Strikes Landed Per Minute:  2.16
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 0.00
Finishes: 4 KO / 3 Sub / 2 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage: 1 Sub
Last Time Out: L, Unanimous Decision – Alex Oliveira

There are loads of options at this price range, I suspect balanced lineups will be at the top of the GPP leaderboards. James Moontasri offers immediate odds value as he has climbed to -110 as of Friday and I expect him to a slight favorite by fight time. He also has an inside the distance prop of +195 – which is hard to beat for $7,800 unless you’re talking about high risk heavyweights. Moontasri’s last two losses came against quality pressure fighters in Kevin Lee and Alex Oliveira. That seems to be Moontasri’s Achilles Heel – he needs space to be effective. However, I don’t think Alex Morono can follow that blueprint. Morono’s one UFC win was a split decision verdict over Kyle Noke….wait, are you impressed? Yeah, me either. Moontasri’s speed should be the X Factor in this fight and any kind of stoppage or even a dominant decision should be more than enough to pay off the price tag. The price is too good for me not to consider Moontasri in all formats.

Prediction: Moontasri – 3rd Round TKO

VALUE PLAY ($7,500 & UNDER)

Scott Holtzman ($7,500)

Vegas Line: +150
Finish Prop: +524
Career Record: 9-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Record In Last 5: 4-1
Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.8
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes: 2.11
Finishes: 3 KO / 2 Sub / 2 First-Round
Losses by Stoppage:  None
Last Time Out: W, Unanimous Decision – Cody Pfister

Ugh. I HATE this value range this week. And that may be an understatement. Scott Holtzman lands here as the least cringe worthy of my six options. Quite honestly, I’m probably fading this fight but I’ll have few shares of Holtzman in GPP because I think he’ll be low owned and he’s a very live underdog at +150 with a price tag of just $7,500. Emmett has power but from what I’ve seen on film he seems to struggle when under pressure and I expect Holtzman to come out and be aggressive. If he does that, Holtzman should dictate the fight and earn a decision victory. The struggle here is that Emmett is probably the better all-around fighter. I have the fight as a pick ‘em and that puts Holtzman in play at $7,500.

Full disclosure though, find the extra $200-500 in your lineup and play more fighters in the middle tier this week.

Prediction: Holtzman – Majority Decision

Want to get full statistical research and Shaun's top cash and GPP plays as well as fades and contrarian picks? Shaun is selling all of that info in a cheat sheet for only $5. Fill out the form below or click here to purchase using PayPal this is a separate service than our traditional monthly membership.