Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
Happy Thursday. I'm writing this after a ridiculously frantic Wednesday lock, which followed a ridiculously frantic Tuesday lock. I need a permanent cold shower at the moment. And unfortunately, Thursday doesn't offer the normal sanity of a shorter slate. Lots of question marks, a handful of big names who might sit, and a few huge spreads to keep us on our toes. Let's see if we can't make heads or tails of this thing.
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Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 42.67 DK - 45.79
The price is getting a little bit out of hand on Lillard, but there are still situations where it makes sense to roster him. Let's see what boxes we can check tonight. Short slate? Check. Top 5 match-up for his position? Check. A game that's projected to be close? Sure. Okay, those were really all the boxes I can think of. But those are some solid boxes. The big issue with Lillard from night to night is projecting his minutes. When the game stays close, he plays 36-40 minutes and puts together his usual package of points and assists. Lillard is 4th in the league in time of possession per game (per SportVU data), and I think he should provide you with a nice floor at the big money slot tonight.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 34.88 DK - 37.53
How about a little upside to go with your safety, eh? Holiday has played 40 and 30 minutes since returning from his turf-toe related absence, and put up about 5x points per dollar in those two games. As of this writing Tim Frazier is doubtful for Thursday's tilt with the Pacers, and that leads me to believe we'll see the higher end of Holiday's minutes here. The Pacers have allowed the 8th most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season, and have played a top 10 pace as well. We've seen Holiday top a fantasy point per minute in the past, and the combination of him rounding into form and Frazier likely being missing makes this something of the perfect storm.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 22.63 DK - 24.72
A much riskier, but much higher upside play. The Warriors could completely destroy the Knicks, yes, but who else do they really have to bounce the ball up the court? Jennings had been quite strong on a fantasy point per minute basis before no showing against the Suns, and with Derrick Rose likely missing this game, I think he actually has a higher floor than you might think. And if the Knicks luck-box their way into a close game here, Jennings could both play big minutes and provide a massive return on your investment for big tournaments. I wouldn't roster him in cash games with your money I don't think, but don't be surprised if he turns out to be in big tournament winning lineups tonight.
Consider: Matthew Dellavedova - He's unexciting, but the minutes have been reliable, and this position is riddled with uncertainty.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 46.98 DK - 49.19
Giannis played 40 minutes on Monday after being considered questionable with a right ankle sprain, and I can't say that I'm especially worried about his status for this one. If we throw out the bizarre game against the Hawks, Giannis has been topping 50 fantasy points with regularity, and his elite across-the-board contributions make him an incredibly safe option at a position that frequently lacks just that. It's hard to evaluate the match-up on some level because of Giannis' unique position. He's the size of a power forward, but runs the offense. It's hard to imagine Wade or Rondo covering him (if Rondo even plays), and while Butler is an excellent defender, Giannis' size could give him trouble. Vegas has pegged this game as a close one, and if we get high 30s/low 40s minutes out of the Greek Freak it's hard to believe we won't be satisfied with the result.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 37.39 DK - 40.06
After Giannis, things start to get quite a bit dicier. Like Lillard, McCollum is priced at the high end for what you'd like to pay for his production. Like Lillard, he's also playing in a game that rates to be both fast paced and close. He's also facing the same back-court, and they've somehow been worse against shooting guards than they have against point guards. Denver ranks dead last at defending twos this season, and McCollum should give them fits. I don't think he has the upside you're looking for for big tournaments, but I don't mind him at all in cash games.
The question-mark filled rest of them
There are a lot of reasonable options after the above guys, but they all come with a slew of question marks. Barton might lose his job to Gary Harris. Klay Thompson could go off, or he could lose his minutes in a blowout. Dwyane Wade would look great if Rondo sat, but there's a chance he'll come back as well. Langston Galloway is an interesting tourney punt, but not a guy you want to rely on. All in all it's a very tough night for the position.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 44.77 DK - 46.85
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 40.7 DK - 42.71
The small forward position is topped by two guys who have a lot going for them right now. Butler's usage climbs dramatically when Rondo's off the court this season (effectively a 20% bump), and he's topped 50 fantasy points in each of his last two games. If Rondo comes back he becomes merely a good play, but if he's absent Butler moves into must-play territory against a Bucks team that's allowed the third most fantasy points in the league to small forwards this year. As for Kawhi, he's been driving home a rock solid 40 fantasy points per game recently, and squaring off against the league's 2nd fastest team is a great spot for him to keep chipping in counting stats. I'm not sure you'll be able to pay up in the mid range in both small forward slots, but each of these guys makes for an excellent option.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 52.93 DK - 56.12
A huge stage, a huge talent, and a price that's starting to get just a little bit too cheap. Durant hasn't exactly been crushing on these prices recently, but there are some positive signs in play here. KD had taken a back seat shooting wise in their 5 straight blowout wins, but as things tightened up in the last two he's been back in the 20 shots a game range. He shot poorly, and his price has remained depressed as result. I expect this game won't be especially close, but the Knicks are just so bad (6th worst in the league) against small forwards that I think he makes an interesting spend-up option tonight. I can't call it safe based on what he's been up to, but I do think you can get him with nice separation from the field.
If you can't pay up at both spots, PJ Tucker might suit your fancy. It seems crazy to play anyone against the Spurs these days, but he's been playing 40 minutes a game with TJ Warren out and handsomely returning value on his current prices. But man, if there were ever a game where his minutes could get jerked around, this would be it.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 58.91 DK - 61.06
It feels a little goofy to recommend every big money guy, but many of them just look like great plays tonight. Davis has been playing absurd 40+ minute rotations recently, and is coming off a game where he put up 50+ fantasy points on the back of 14 points on the defensive end. This rates to be a great spot against Thad Young, who is frankly undersized to deal with him. While I like the upside of Kevin Durant, the game script (a close game) and match-up here lead me to believe that Davis is probably your safest top-top tier money guy tonight.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 30.68 DK - 32.11
Mike Malone has come out and said that he hopes to play Jokic more, which is all at once great and a little maddening. It's great because Jokic has been handily paying 5-7x on these prices on his current minutes, and it's maddening because if Mike Malone hopes to play him more, shouldn't he just freaking play him more? Like, is he accidentally pulling him when he doesn't mean to? If Jokic ever plays 30+ minutes per game regularly he's going to be an easy $7,000 player, and the combination of the potential minutes increase and a terrific match-up with the Blazers (who rank dead last in the league against opposing PFs) makes Jokic a great option in all formats.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.86 DK - 33.34
You're not going to be able to pay up at every single position, and I think Jabari Parker is one of the more underrated DFS commodities right now. He was an abomination against the Wizards (and, surprise, I had a few shares of him that night), but other than that he's been reliably dropping 30+ fantasy points every night for two weeks. He's a little more scoring dependent than I tend to like my power forwards, but if he's going to top 20 shots a game (like he has in 2 of his last 4) then we can look past it I suppose. The Bulls are a league average match-up here, and Parker should turn in another steady performance.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 28.86 DK - 29.85
Speaking of underrated fantasy commodities, I present to you Robin Lopez. Sure, he hasn't been putting up electric totals recently, but there's a lot to be said for a guy whose minutes are secure and has easy 6x points per dollar upside when things are breaking his way. The other main factor here is that center is really tough tonight. Myles Turner is the most expensive guy going at $6,200. The Bucks are a top ten match-up for centers, and I'd be happy to get away from the position without much skin in the game.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 29.06 DK - 30.59
If we want big time upside? Let's look at Tyson Chandler. This one works better if Len is out of the lineup again, but my man has dropped 20+ rebounds in back to back game, and is just embarrassing people on the glass right now. Yes, the Spurs are a truly terrible match-up - but there's also some chance Pau doesn't even play on the 2nd half of this back to back. It's only a tournament play thanks to the match-up, but don't sleep on another huge performance from Chandler.
Strongly considered: Mason Plumlee, who misses this list because it was kind of hard to make the money work with him. Still, Plumlee has put up 18 and 7 in back to back games against tough competition, and he should have an easier time of it tonight against Denver. I definitely don't mind him if you can make his slightly more expensive price work.
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View Comments
That early evening nap last night killed me. Resting healthy players? This is getting outta hand.
One word = POPP
Read your picks every day. Since you have to hit at least 5X value to cash (300) Fan Duel pricing is not often equitable. Of your picks today only Giannis, Butler and Parker have hit value in 50% of their last 10 games. Durant one of last ten. McCollum two of his last ten. Holiday one of ten. No wonder you didn't recommend Steph Curry since he is one of his last ten. What is the basis of their pricing?
Noah plays for the Knicks! Please proof read your article before you post it.
oops wrong article...lol
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