Miami Heats Hassan Whiteside, right, defends against Atlanta Hawks Kent Bazemore in the first quarter of an NBA basketball game Monday, Dec. 14, 2015, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/David Goldman)
Editor's note: Brad Holda joins us from VOK DFS, and we're glad to have him here! Enjoy the article, and we'll see you tonight around line-up lock in the chat! ~ James
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Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 47.37 DK - 50.16
Wall is simply underpriced relative to his established floor, especially on DraftKings where he would need to eclipse 44 points to reach his value threshold. And, he has honestly become a model of consistency, giving fantasy owners 50 burgers in 6 out of his last 8 games. On a big slate with a bunch of uncertainty, you can easily consider Wall a viable option in all formats. In a game with a healthy implied total of 212 in which Vegas figures to be the most competitive on the slate, look for Wall to get all the run he can handle. The micro match-up in and of itself is less than ideal with Charlotte ranking 5th against point guards. But, on the other side of the coin, consider that Wall is averaging 36.2 minutes per game and averaging 1.3 fantasy points a minute. This gives way to a healthy floor and ceiling which we saw plenty of versus Orlando four games ago where he went ballistic and dropped 75 fantasy points. He is definitely going to see some action in my cash game line-ups.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 34.81 DK - 37.21
He certainly has been heating up lately, pun intended. I rarely have an issue rostering a guy on a "heater" as opposed to a guy slumping. In the last 5 games, Dragic is averaging 39.8 fantasy points and returning value to the tune of 5.4x. I like him in this up-tempo match-up because despite the slow pace, the Heat often run their offense in and Dragic thrives in fast paced game environments. Add to this the fact that Indiana is one of the worst teams in the league against point guards (25th). This gives me another reason to strongly consider him in all formats as an elite mid-tier selection.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 22.16 DK - 24.14
In the absence of Mike Conley, Harrison is currently getting all the run he can handle in Memphis. And, minutes generally correlate with fantasy production. At his currently deflated price points, Harrison is definitely worth a look in tournaments. The best position to attack against the Cavs is their point guard. They are 21st in the league against opposing guards. Harrison, I feel, is best reserved for tournaments because there is imminent blowout risk and the young guard is only averaging about .6 fantasy points a minute. We've seen the upside with the kid and he makes for a nice contrarian pick given the context of the situation.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 40.55 DK - 42.3
On a large 10 game slate that features the likes of James Harden, DDR presents as a strong drop down option in cash games. DMmar has established a high floor. Even after cooling down, starting the season off leading the league in usage and points he is still averaging 42.2 DraftKings points a game. In the last 5 games DeRozan has delivered an average of 38 points a game, returning a 4.7 value on his price tag. Although his ceiling is relatively limited due to being a scoring dependent fantasy option he is still a safe bet to deliver value. He also represents as a viable source of cap relief if fading the Beard. Although the Sixers as a whole have a pretty terrible defense, it's worth noting that they are ranked 4th against shooting guards.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.66 DK - 28.26
Gordon has been consistently performing better since he started coming off the bench and running the 2nd unit. The offense has been flowing through him and he's been chucking up about 15 shots a game on average. He's rocking a healthy 24% usage rate while averaging around 29 to 30 minutes of run a game. Sacramento is pretty good against shooting guards (7th), but don't have the talent in their 2nd unit to adequately defend Gordon. The last 10 games have featured Gordon scoring 29 fantasy points and returning value 5.7x on average. He's definitely in my player pool when it comes to mid-tier shooting guards and I expect some nice returns on.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 21.03 DK - 23.13
I can't really say I've rostered Redick a whole lot, other than to grab a guy in a neutral to positive match-up to save some salary for a more expensive player. And, I think if viable value alternatives don't end up opening up throughout the day, this is just the case you have with J.J. He is a pick and roll sharpshooter that can get you 20-25 points if his shot is dropping. With the depth at shooting guard and the neutrality of the match-up, I would reserve Redick for tournament action if plugging him in.
Consider: James Harden, if the money works out in your favor. He's certainly expensive, but on a big slate it stands to reason that some punts might head our way. If they do, he's a reasonable place to invest against the Kings.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 41.39 DK - 43.42
Kawhi is just one of those guys that no matter the slate or game, you can always make a rational case to deploy him in any format. And, tomorrow is going to be no different for me. Kawhi is the focal point of the Spurs offense, leading the team in usage and fantasy points. He is priced pretty fair throughout the industry but is also a guy that has 50-60 point upside any given night. Boston rates pretty well against the small forward position but is also a team that is weak on the glass. Leonard is a safe bet for a double-double tomorrow and I like him to reach or surpass his season average of 41.8 fantasy points a game. He is definitely in the conversation as a cash play for me.
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Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 32.29 DK - 33.81
A lot of fantasy owners are probably going to be off of Barnes because he's burned us a couple of times in the last week. I've also noticed that Barnes fantasy production has taken a dive in lieu of Wesley Matthews increase in production. And, tomorrow Wesley Matthews draws a much harder match-up against KCP than Barnes does against Marcus Morris. At his current price point I don't like him for cash games but love his upside and match-up for tournaments. If this game stays close I like Barnes for 5-6x value.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 21.56 DK - 23.57
Due to the slew of injuries that have amassed in Utah, there has been an emergence of an awesome Aussie. He's been seeing plenty of minutes coupled with a flame-throwing three-point dagger, thrusting him into the realm of fantasy relevance. He is currently boasting a league leading 48.4% 3 point shooting percentage with 30 makes. In the last 2 games, he has seen 38 and 35 minutes scoring 26.5 and 43.3 fantasy points respectively. If Hood and Hill don't suit up tomorrow, I'll definitely be rostering me some Jingles. The match-up is neutral at best but opportunity cost makes it hard to pass this guy up.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.9 DK - 26.69
What once started as a risky punt play a few weeks ago has actually turned into a fairly decent cap exploitation play. If there isn't enough inherent value readily available, you can always plug in Carroll. He has a soft match-up against the Sixers who are ranked 22nd against forwards. Currently, he is seeing enough run and is also cheap enough to be considered a viable cash candidate. Devoid of any real upside I would limit tournament exposure and save him as a source of salary relief in cash formats. His salary is hovering right around 4k on both sites and his season average of fantasy points is 21.8. I'll take a 5x return on a low end player 8 days a week.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.26 DK - 32.83
Booker is one of those 'under the radar' types that has silently been killing it this year. He is constantly posting solid stat lines yet I never hear people talk about him that much. Through the season he is quietly averaging 10.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists and .5 blocks a game. Tomorrow we have a cake match-up against the Lakers who rank almost dead last against forwards. Booker's your guy if you're looking for a tournament sleeper with a modicum of upside who will also have low ownership.
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 32.66 DK - 34.52
Ibaka is another strong tournament target who will most likely be the biggest benefactor if we see Vucevic sit out again. Ibaka sees the second highest usage behind Fournier when playing without Vucevic at around 24.5%. The match-up isn't that great as the Clips are ranked 5th against forwards, but increased minutes and opportunity should bridge the gap in fantasy efficiency making him a strong candidate to grind his way to value.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 24.72 DK - 26.53
Morris picks up a nice match-up tomorrow against the Hornets who aren't very good at all when it comes to defending the forward spot. He should see a lot of easy looks tomorrow and pick up some nice fantasy production running with the 2nd unit. Morris is a volatile player who is relatively 'scoring dependent' but does possess a solid 40 point upside. Over the last 5 games, Morris has averaged 27.4 fp while delivering on value 5.3x.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 50.31 DK - 52.4
I'm definitely going to "trust the process" - and that process for me is plugging Embiid into some line-ups. This guy has been straight up incredible and posting fantasy stat lines that would not have you thinking he was on any sort of minutes restriction. Embiid gets to square up with Valanciunas and the Raptors tomorrow who rank 25th against centers. Val is no match for the monster that Embiid is slowly morphing into. Throughout the duration of the season, Embiid is averaging 1.5 fantasy points a minute and if he is going to see around 28 minutes of action. That will give him a super high floor for a guy that is still very much under-priced throughout the industry. I like Embiid in all formats and will definitely be plugging him into my cash line-ups.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 53.09 DK - 56.02
Boogie really needs no formal introduction. No matter the game or slate he will always be in contention as one of the days primary players to roster. Cousins is going up against an up-tempo Rocket's team that seem to have adopted Harden's defensive mentality as a unit. This is going to be a high scoring affair and Cousins will see a boost in usage and fantasy production if Gay is unable to go. If that is in fact the case, Boogie will then become a core cash play for me. The last two seasons have seen Cousins usage rising from 36 to 41% when playing without Gay, who is also averaging 1.6 fantasy points per minute. This raises the floor considerably and definitely warrants your attention.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 45.96 DK - 47.76
side from being a pretty volatile fantasy producer, Whiteside does offer an immense upside. After a couple of good outings in a row, I expect his little run of efficient performances to continue tomorrow against the Pacers. The pacers represent a rather neutral match-up for Whiteside, ranking 19th against centers. Whiteside will continue to see an uptick in usage due to all of of Miami's injuries. He has benefited to the tune of 44.5 and 40 points in the last couple of games. With the depth at center on this 10 game slate, Whiteside is best reserved for tournaments.
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View Comments
Cavs are packingoing up shop for the 2nd game against the Griz. Love the website. Such a great help. Avid reader since last nba season and mlb.
Love JR Smith tonight for Cavs with big 3 out
JR and Liggins had 58 points yesterday!! I'm all in on both of them for tonight and paying up at PG, SF and C. ?
All I know is that I never play Elfrid Payton on the right night. Still did good last night though. Ole Elfrid on the shelfrid.
Good stuff
What do the percentages% indicate on the lineup optimizer?
Im giving LEE from SA a shot tonight due to Alridge being out, Thought?
Not a bad play since he scored 31pts the last time they played BOS.
Boogie is out tonight
Lowry or Wall? I like the Toronto match up but John wall is just too good to not play.