Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
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Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 62.17 DK - 66.01
One day the price will reach such a point that we simply won't be able to play him and honestly, we are probably getting close to that number now. Without at least a couple of punts he's so tough to roster on DraftKings and FanDuel you definitely need things to break right as well. But man, he's just about the toughest guy in DFS to fade when he's out on the court and this should be an up and down matchup. The Blazers allow more than average scoring to opposing point guards thanks to Lillard being more an offense-first PG. Westbrook is what he is at this point: a triple-double machine who scores fantasy points in nearly every imaginable way. Again, it's getting tougher and tougher to play him him as the price increases, but if some cheaper plays come in then he's the guy to buy.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 34.9 DK - 37.3
Uncle Drew's price just continues to drop, and drop and drop. And I (sort of) get why. He's barely hitting 5x on these prices on his best nights and significantly underperforming on his worst. One reason is he's because so scoring dependent to hit his value with most of the offense running through Lebron. Kyrie was never a big assist to begin with and the numbers have dropped even more this season. But again, so has the price and in a game against Memphis I do think he has a floor at these salaries. I don't suspect he's a popular play tonight because the matchup looks slow and the game could be a blowout. But I'm making a price call on Kyrie here.
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 29.55 DK - 31.98
Looking at Rondo's game log is the very definition of 'peaks and valleys'. He's put up some huge games only to come back only to throw in performances like his ones against Dallas and Detroit where he scored 18.5 total fantasy points combined. Maybe he was too busy thinking about throwing stuff at assistant coaches. Regardless, I think we snag him at a nice price here. Ricky Rubio's no defender and I think can operate somewhat freely against the Wolves' D. Rondo doesn't do any one thing well, but he chips in so across the line good for an average 8/7/6/1 on the season. That he can make up for a lack of scoring means when the ball is actually finding the bucket he has significant upside.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 28.66 DK - 30.76
The issue with Booker in the short term has been the minutes reduced significantly from the mid to high 30's all the way down the high 20's. But he played 33 in the regulation against the Pelicans on Sunday and that's what we need out of him. Booker's ceded much of the offensive burden to Eric Bledsoe in the first unit and the latter's been a high usage guy since taking over the point. But Booker's price is dropping relative his new lack of the same opportunity. This is a great matchup against the Knicks and the game has a 221 o/u to open. Booker needs to hit the three and shoot in higher volume to hit value.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 26.92 DK - 29.02
With Vucevic out of the lineup the other day the Magic had to redo a lot of their rotations and Fournier directly benefited. He played a team high 38 minutes mostly because he's able to shuttle between shooting guard and small forward on both ends of the court. I suspect Vuce sits again today and Fournier should be in line for significant minutes. He was great against the Nuggets putting up a 24/6/4 line that more than paid his prices. Again, I'm much more inclined to go here if no Vuce because the Magic do play loose with their minutes. But some of that has come at the hands of the blowout. I think he sees mid 30's minutes here and is viable Vuce or no but I'd prefer the latter.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 32.26 DK - 35.2
How close do you think the game stays? That's the real question. Right now Golden State is only -10 which implies they win handily and it's butting right up on the edge of the blowout. The Warriors showed they have some flaws for sure, coming off a weird blowout loss to the Grizz. I suspect they come out firing tonight against a defensively-inefficient Pelican squad. For all intents and purposes Klay is the same fantasy player this year as last year. His per minute stats are nearly identical and he's still (for the season) shooting a little worse than his career averages from three. The price climbed off the huge game last week, but he's still a fine cash game play if you think the game stays close.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 47.65 DK - 50.57
It's easy to look at Durant's recent game log and think he isn't quite the upper tier fantasy guy we saw earlier in the year. But in his last five games he's played three very slow teams in the Wolves, Grizz and Jazz and had blowouts against the Clippers and Pacers. That's a lot of grinding or buzzing of minutes which shouldn't be the case tonight. New Orleans is a top ten team in pace on the season and this is just the spot for a Durant bounce back game. His price has come down in the short term as well because of the lack of high ceiling games. I love him in cash tonight and on FanDuel don't think there'll be much issue fitting both him and Westbrook. He's still averaging a 26/8/5 line of the season and shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc. Great time to buy.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.86 DK - 32.76
Small forward might be my least favorite position today and that’s saying something because of how rough power forward usually is on a nightly basis. But the value pickings are really slim here and it might just make sense to roster a guy like Wiggins who’s in line for major minutes even if the matchup isn’t so great. He’ll likely have Jimmy Butler on him and that’s no great shakes. But Wiggins has seen the price drop below $6K on FanDuel. In close games he’ll push up towards 40 minutes while putting up shots in the high teens. He needs all the court time he can get too because he relies so much on scoring to hit his value marker. Again, I’m not enamored with the matchup, but do think the potential minutes give him a higher floor.
Consider, well, I have to be honest this position is pretty gross tonight. Maybe a punt value will creep to the surface, but I’m not so sure. Aaron Gordon is kind of interesting were Vuce to sit again, but last game he still only played 22 minutes. Andre Roberson is a big minutes guy who doesn’t do a whole lot on the court. If Kent Bazemore sat out again Thabo Sefolosha is interesting. This is all to say: small forward is gross.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 39.16 DK - 41.44
He’s coming off a monster performance against the Lakers that saw him put up his best fantasy line of the season with a 26/12/2/7 (blocks). Don’t expect him to have those kind of defense numbers again so the overall totals are a little inflated. That being said, he’s coming into his own in his second season and able to play many more minutes on the regular. I’m actually surprised at much he’s seeing his own shot while sharing the court with Melo and Rose, but he’s averaging 17 shots per game and more than 5 looks from beyond the arc. The Suns are the fastest team in the league and play a bottom third defensive efficiency. Again, don’t expect the same kind of blocks, but everything else is there for Staps.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.69 DK - 30.2
Again, to reiterate something we’ve said many times, I don’t think I’ve ever played Dieng on the right night. And yes I know that’s the DFS guy in me talking because it clearly isn’t true, but I just always have it creeping in the back of my mind. But Dieng’s got a nice matchup against the Bulls who are worse than league average defending interior scoring and about average in protecting the glass. Dieng’s price also helps the FD double PF nightly nightmare as we can slot in a lower mid-tier guy with a solid minutes’ floor.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.19 DK - 36.12
I’m caveating this by saying Ibaka is really only in serious play if Vucevic sits again tonight. Last time we predicted, correctly, that Ibaka would see a significant minutes and usage bump were Vuce to sit. He went out and played 36 minutes, took 17 shots and finished with a 22/4 line with four steals and a block. The peripheral numbers were a little low considering the time on the court and I think that kind of performance is actual on the lower end of what we can expect from minutes in the high 30’s again. Remember to check Vuce’s status before lock.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 41.66 DK - 43.89
Much of the same reasoning applies to KAT as it Dieng in that Chicago isn’t particularly good at defending either the four or the five. That being said, Towns is a completely different player than Dieng and you need to pay for the upside. He’s been on a rebounding tear of late and over his last five games is averaging 14 boards per to go with 19 points. Those are closing in on elite numbers and he’s even shot a little off his averages from three. In a close game Towns is a favorite to see 37 minutes or more, which is above what we can expect from almost any other big man. He’s a slightly better deal on DraftKings especially considering the double-double bonus and extra points you get from the 3 pointer.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 23.74 DK - 25.07
Again in the caveat department, Biyombo is really only here were Vuce to sit again. It’s the same for a lot of these picks tonight. He played slightly injured last game without the fellow big out there, but you couldn’t really tell. He went 12/6/4 in 34 minutes and would be in line for similar run tonight. The DK price ticked up some, but you still get him at solid value for extended minutes on FanDuel.
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View Comments
Doug, dude, were you shit-face drunk when you wrote this up? LOL!!! Thanks for the insight, even if some of it was hard to understand.
So, after all that, does it matter if Vuce plays tomorrow??...thanks this was very helpful
yeesh, rough crowd!!!!
Great stuff. Keep it up.
Calling Davis on the rebound with 65
Instead of criticizing AND then complimenting, why not just say thanks for giving us some good insights on tonights games. You do realize these are written the night before, right? Some of the info may not be correct given thatguys end up sitting out or resting but these posts everyday give me a little something to base my daily picks off of. Keep up the great work Doug. Ill definitely let you know when I end up hitting for a few grand. Thanks.
Or....maybe a better idea, out of respect for the people paying $15 or (like me) $30 a month would be to do this "write up" the day of instead of the night before! I mean why bother when 30-60% of your "picks" are deemed irrelevant 12-16hrs later? As a long time DFS player I have finally, just recently signed up for DFSR Pro and while it's only been a little over a week, I'm sad to say so far it's been a huge disappointment! I kind of get the feeling that between the time and commitment spent counting the money he makes from his paying clients and preparing his own DFS Teams, his fans/payed users are just an afterthought. This feeling is made stronger each day I read another one of these outdated "picks" articles written the night before (after my line-ups are all done for the night)! I sincerely hope something happens to change my mind over the next few weeks but as of now I feel completely duped! Buyer Beware!
Thought this was a comment section not a forum to vent frustration when the ball doesn't bounce your way on a given night. Come on guys it's SPORTS anything can happen! Maybe find another hobby like knitting! By the way KYRIE is out so LEBRON!?!?!?