Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan passes against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 11, 2016, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
It’s an embarrassment of riches in the Fantasy Universe this week with a ton of good teams playing against truly bottom-feeding defenses. Coming off a week in which we struggled to find “safe” value in spots, we have no such issue here. There are almost too many good plays. And did we mention that DFSR user Andrew Morris took down the Sunday Million last week? Yeah, life is good. Hope to see you inside the DFSR family some time soon.
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Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 25.59 DK - 26.27
Facing an upper level Seattle D on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field? No problem for Rodgers in just another game solidifying Discount Double Check as the top of the QB fantasy mountain. He only needed 23 passing attempts to put up a 246/3 line in a game that got well out of hand early. There’s some blowout concern here as well with the Packers coming in as -6.5 against an average Bears’ defense. But Rodgers is just so crucial to anything the Packers do on offense that I think he can weather a less-than-optimal game script if the Packers do get up early. They ran the ball a bit more than usual last week with Michael and Montgomery, though it’s tough to figure if that was more chicken or the egg. It helps Green Bay to establish a ground game, but it also opens up more efficient opportunities for Rodgers. He’s still the highest floor QB heading into Week 15.
Opponent NO
Proj Points FD - 24.31 DK - 25.47
Oh believe me, I know you don’t want to read this name. I completely get it especially if you watched any part of last week’s debacle against the Dolphins. Palmer looked absolutely horrendous. But so much of that had to do with the torrential downpour in Miami and lack of grip on the ball (a problem for everyone in that game). Look for him to bounce back at home against a Saints squad ranked in the bottom third against the pass this season. Palmer doesn’t run at all, relying completely on airing the ball out, but his price has come down significantly (especially on FanDuel). The Cardinals have the third highest team implied total on the main slate and pairing Palmer and DJ (we’ll get to him in a second) has a solid cash game floor. Palmer isn’t the same QB as last year (completion % and overall rating both down) but he isn’t priced in that elite tier anymore either.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 25.34 DK - 26.32
Ryan and the Falcons didn’t have to break much of a sweat last week against the Rams who turned in a bad enough performance to finally get Jeff Fisher fired. That’s no small feat. Ryan is in another fantastic matchup this week against a 49er defense getting shredded through the air. They rank 28th in DVOA against the pass and Ryan should have Julio Jones back in action. If the latter can’t go, I’d likely downgrade Ryan some simply because there are other solid options and no need to run out a QB who doesn’t have his elite WR1. That and Atlanta’s been a little more willing to run the ball this season, ranking 10th in run/ pass ratio. But the 49ers allow a ton of opposing volume and simply can’t stop the pass at all. The Falcons have, by far, the highest implied total on the week at a crazy 32.5 and you are going to want exposure to that game.
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 20.74 DK - 21.58
Speaking of terrible defenses who are completely hopeless at stopping anyone in any facet of the game, I give you the 2016 Cleveland Browns. Their hopelessness is well-documented and their defensive multipliers are so bad that we had to even adjust our projection system a bit to account for their ineptitude. This is all to say that any QB playing Cleveland is in play, especially one priced like Taylor. He won’t throw a ton, but he makes up for some of it by rushing for close to 40 yards per game. Cleveland ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and 29th against the run. So it isn’t like they are stopping any aspect of the game. Taylor is a fantastic value on DraftKings if looking to spend up everywhere else.
Opponent OAK
Proj Points FD - 16.14 DK - 18.22
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 17.2 DK - 19.06
Yes, there are a lot of great big money options at running back today that we'll get to in a second. But, you guys!!!!, we actually have some punts this week! Okay, we potentially have some punts this week. But in 2016, that's about as much as we can hope to get excited for. Still, both of these guys check all the boxes when it comes to excellent punt plays for the week. As of this writing Gordon looks less likely to play than Forte, but both of these guys should be on your radar regardless. The Jets and the Chargers are both prioritizing the run right now, and Oakland and Miami have allowed the 3rd and 2nd most yards per carry to opposing running backs, respectively. If both Forte and Gordon sit I'd suspect Powell will be the much bigger start, here, but don't sleep on Farrow - he touched the ball 22 times after Gordon's injury in the Carolina game, in spite of the fact that the Chargers were getting rolled over. Love both of these guys in either format if the opportunity is there.
Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 25.9 DK - 29.35
What is there left to say about Le'Veon Bell? With every game for the Steelers being a playoff game basically, the Steelers have thrown all injury caution to the wind and are playing Bell as much as physically possible. Bell put up a 50 fantasy point week on an astounding 42 touches, and while it might be remarkably reckless to give him the ball that many times from week to week, that's what the Steelers are doing right now. The match-up this week only sweetens the deal. The Bengals have allowed the 6th most yards per carry to opposing backs this season in spite of getting to play the Browns twice, and if you think they are going to stop Bell after getting shredded by Isaiah Crowell, I've got a bridge to sell you. The price is moving into untenable range here, but not in a plus-plus match-up.
Opponent CLE
Proj Points FD - 20.17 DK - 22.28
Another ridiculously good match-up for one of the league's decent running games. Cleveland combines everything you can possibly want in a running back match-up - they have allowed the 4th highest yards per carry in the league, sure, but they're also just so damned bad that opposing teams can't help themselves but to run the ball over and over again. Success begets more success, and pretty soon opposing backs are putting up huge totals. They've allowed 1,900 yards to opposing RBs this season, which would put them on pace for one of the worst performances in recent memory if not for San Francisco's legendary futility. McCoy never got going against Pittsburgh last weekend, but he's been very strong on a YPC basis all season long, and the combination of his skill and the projected game script makes him look like one of the highest floor options possible for you this weekend.
A quick note on David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott. Our projection system likes both of these guys this week, but it looks from here like you might wind up wanting to punt at least one running back slot this weekend. If that's the case I'd prefer Bell to Johnson and McCoy to Elliott, but wouldn't call you names if you felt otherwise.
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 19.73 DK - 23.49
Opponent SF
Proj Points FD - 13.52 DK - 15.51
Which of these guys you wind up rostering depends pretty clearly on whether Jones actually suits up here. If he doesn't, the 82 receiving yards Gabriel put up in a blowout of the Rams (that featured two defensive touch downs) looks almost certainly like his floor, and while a blowout is possible with San Francisco as well, I'd be happy to get a repeat performance from him on these paltry prices. As for Jones, San Francisco has been blistered by wide receivers of all stripes this season, and if he suits up it will likely because Atlanta has the intention to actually use him. He does present some risk if the game gets out of hand, though, and you might just be better served paying up elsewhere. If he's out, I simply love Gabriel in any format here.
Robbie Anderson FD 4700 DK 4200
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 12.58 DK - 15.5
You know we're going deep on obscure talent when we can't pull up a picture for a guy, but that's where we are right now. Anderson is DIRT cheap on FanDuel, and respectably cheap on DraftKings as well. And you may not have ever heard of him, so let's make an introduction, yeah? Anderson has 23 targets in his last two games after having just 2 in the game prior. Where did this all come from? A rather common occurrence, actually. When Bryce Petty took over the starting job in NY he brought his boy along with him, and the former practice squad pals have been connecting early and often. While you can only use him on slates involving involving Saturday's games, he's just a fantastic inclusion on those shorter slates. You aren't going to find receivers with this kind of volume at these prices often - so lets get while the getting is good.
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 13.33 DK - 16.26
Sanders is a case study in why paying attention to underlying opportunity so frequently beats big flashy weeks. While he hasn't been considered a big time fantasy option this year, he's 4th in targets, 8th in receiving yards, and 10th in catches on the year. And he's the 16th most expensive receiver on FanDuel. Why the big discount? Well, his performance has been a little bit up and down thanks to some shaky quarterback play. In the last 6 weeks he's averaged more than 10 targets a game and has topped 100 yards and a touchdown in 2 of his last 3 contests, and he hasn't really lost a step since he was an elite WR1 option. He'd be a value against most teams here, and New England being slightly below average at covering receivers of Sanders' relative position and profile according to our metrics makes him an excellent value play here.
Opponent NYG
Proj Points FD - 13.75 DK - 17.12
A lot of people thought Marvin Jones' return would be the end of Tate's daily fantasy relevance, and I am going to go ahead and disagree with that sentiment even if his overall total didn't impress last week. The Giants have been quite poor against WR2s this season, ranking 10th worst in the league against them, and it's not clear to me that the Lions even plan to use Tate less than they did when Jones was out. His target share increased from 16.6% to 17.4%, and the big difference in production seemed to come primarily from a variance based dip to 9.7 yards per catch (his career number is 12.1). Combine a good match-up with Tate's solid job security and pair that with solid prices and you've got another excellent mid-range value play.
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 13.9 DK - 17.55
I waffled a bit in this last slot, but ultimately landed on Edelman after a period of internal debate. I'm aware of all the red flags, here. Denver has been phenomenal against the pass this season, for one, and not as good against the run. Will the Patriots try and run the ball against them? Sure. But they ran the ball 25 times last week, and Edelman still saw fifteen targets. That brings his target total for the last 4 weeks to 55, and with Gronk on the IR, it doesn't totally seem like Brady has a lot of other options. Yes, Hogan put up the highest receiving yardage total last week, but given that Edelman more than doubled Hogan's target total I have to think that the plan remains to get him the football. When Edelman finally has a good match-up he'll be something like a must play, but even in a tough spot against Denver I think he's an excellent guy to roster in any type of format.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 12.64 DK - 15.76
The tight end situation has been pretty desperate all season, so when any appearance of safety comes about our system gobbles it up with abandon. Rudolph has averaged 10 targets per week over the last 3 weeks (and maintained his target share even with Diggs getting healthy), and even in chipped in a touch down last week. This week he'll get the Colts, who rank dead last in the league at defending the tight end position this season. He occupies such a specific role in the offense that it's hard to imagine him not getting his here.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 11.91 DK - 14.63
Brate was a bit of a disappointment against the Saints last week, but hey, everyone on the Bucs was a disappointment. So he's in good company. Or bad company. Or some kind of company. But there were some positive signs here. Brate was on the field for 56 snaps (up from 40 the prior week), and turned in 47 receiving yards even in a game where Winston looked completely lost. With Shorts done for the season and Humphries' status in continued doubt, Brate offers considerable upside for a guy that will not be highly owned in big tournaments this weekend. I like Rudolph quite a bit better at a similar price on FanDuel, but might consider Brate on DraftKings where he's $500 cheaper.
And that's kind of it. Tight End is down-right horrendous this week, to be honest with you. I suppose you could consider rolling it back with Zach Ertz, but I'm a little terrified to take any of the Eagles' young offense against that meat grinder of a Baltimore defense. After that you have some upside guys (like Eifert or Kelce) that don't provide enough reliability on their prices, or super cheap guys (like Jermaine Gresham) who just don't inspire any confidence on their track record. Buckle up, folks, this is your tight end situation for the rest of the season in all likelihood.
The Seattle Seahawks vs. the Los Angeles Rams
Likely your chalk defense of the week, in spite of the increasing prices. The Seahawks have allowed the 3rd fewest points per game this season, and the Rams have scored the least (at an incredible 14.9 per game). The Rams just allowed 2 defensive touchdowns to the Falcons thanks to sloppy play while playing catch-up, and Vegas sees the Seahawks beating the Rams by 15 points here. This has all the hallmarks of a super high upside, super high floor match-up - the perfect kind for any sort of daily fantasy football contest.
The Green Bay Packers vs. the Chicago Bears
This one isn't quite as obvious, but there's still a lot here to sink your teeth into. The Bears have been one of the worst offenses all season (scoring the 3rd worst 17.0 points per game), and have resorted to playing Matt Barkley at quarterback. While we think Barkley is better than most people, he's still been pretty underwhelming in each of his last two weeks. I don't know that this match-up has the same upside as the Seahawks match-up simply because the Bears haven't trusted Barkley to make a lot of aggressive throws, but if the Bears are playing catch-up (and Vegas has them as 6.5 point underdogs) we could see the Packers capitalize and take advantage. The real draw here, though, is the FanDuel price. At just $4,500 it allows you to pay up more easily for lots of big time value guys, and that might be enough to make you want to take the high floor here even if you don't get access to quite the same upside as you would with a team like Seattle.
Football, baby!
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