Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
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Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 58.69 DK - 62.54
AKA the triple double machine fantasy monster will be featured in a game with a 225 implied total between two teams for the sake of professional courtesy are “below average” at defense. No matter the format you’re going to NEED to get some mild to moderate exposure to this shoot-out! He is currently rocking a 39% usage on the season and scoring almost 2 fantasy points a minute. Just writing that took me aback a little. Sooner or later his price is going to rise to a point where the floor and ceiling don’t converge in the nicest of ways. However it isn’t there just yet, so if you can find some high point per dollar value plays, enough to comfortably consider his incredibly high floor for cash you’re going to have to do what you probably have been doing all season. ROSTER HIM!
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 25.1 DK - 27.48
Well Derrick Rose is currently questionable and with his large injury history I think they play it safe and give him another games rest. If this in fact ends up becoming the case Jennings would instantly emerge as an industry wide value and chalk pick for cash. Jennings is a baller and a good one at that, in fact he used to start for the Pistons back in the day. Being one of the best back-up guards in the league I don’t think you really even think about plugging him in or not. It’s kind of automatic like the fact that if Rose is out of the picture Carmelo is gonna chuck up 25-30 shots. Although the context of playing without Rose on the court is different because he’s injured not alternating units his usage still rises 4.5 % points and there is ever the so slightest uptick of fantasy product. Last game against the Cavs before the blowout commenced he was well on his way to a 30 point outing and giving his fantasy owners a return on value to the tune of 7-8x. Expect Jennings to return value and more tomorrow if for some reason Rose doesn’t suit up in a game that scripts to be pretty competitive and relatively high scoring.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 41.61 DK - 44.11
While the Heat have been crippled with injuries, Dragic has led this team and made them competitive. I strongly agree that he hasn’t peaked at price until he become close to an 8k guard. His usage increased drastically when wade left and now with the slew of injuries that have piled up Goran has a projected usage of around 36.25%. Most people don’t realize how many of the offensive plays are directly attributed to him. As for tomorrow we will see the heat try and conquer the Cavs. Easier said than done but I like for him to grind his way to value and potentially even more if his three bombs are dropping. Dragic typically thrives in fast paced games because that’s the type of player He is. And we all know that the Cavs like to run the floor. The Cavaliers have an overall very efficient defense but their one weak spot you always want to attack is the point guard. Kyrie made be a sick point man but probably needs to borrow some of Chris Paul’s technique rocking a super ugly -1.7 dbpm (a defensive efficiency quantified) It’s hard to roster a guy in cash when the spread is 13 but I think that Dragic is a strong representation of the quintessential tournament play because if this game goes the distance I can see him with 40-45 fantasy points.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 29.79 DK - 31.42
Now we have talk about the other guy that’s come in to his own of late coming off the bench and getting plenty of run averaging 33 minutes and 33 points through the last 5 games. He generally defers to Dragic when on the floor if the Heat are currently running a 3 guard set but when he plays with the 2nd unit this guy is fearless, almost on an Isaiah Thomas level but hasn’t graduated. My models have both Dragic and Johnson as positive values. And in my mind Johnson rates as a real good contender to be fit into my cash lines. Because you really aren’t afraid of him losing playing time in a blowout because he already runs with the 2nd unit. If anything he cleans up in garbage time and hits his ceiling. Of course that was hypothetical game theory but I still think he is viable in all formats at an affordable price throughout the industry.
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Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 34.97 DK - 37.36
He saw a minutes' decrease last game when the Lakers were just annihilated by the Rockets, but expect to see the run tick back up here in a fantastic matchup against the Suns. Phoenix plays at the fastest pace in the league with a bottom third defensive efficiency. That's sweet spot territory for a guy like Sweet Lou who is such a crazy volume shooter when everything's clicking. He is actually the 13th highest usage guy in the NBA when on the court and it's evidenced the 27 and 20 shots he took in the two games before the blowout with Houston. It's always a little risky taking a guy off the bench, but the Lakers do have incentive to play him minutes for his scoring.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 23.33 DK - 25.15
The Heat still need him playing big minutes with their team so light in terms of personnel and he's been able to get shots up in this offense. The last three game have him averaging 14 shot attempts per game with the vast majority coming from behind the arc. He's been chucking up nine shots per game from three. That's a crazy number and if he can knock them down at his career averages then you are in great shape with him at these prices. Ellington needs to score to hit value with 80% of his fantasy production coming from putting the ball in the hoop. That's a lot of variance if the shot isn't falling, but it's built into his price.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 51.83 DK - 54.15
I have him listed under the cheaper guys above for a reason. While he's clearly a fantasy superstar, there are problems with this matchup tonight. The Hawks are a good defensive team (second in the league) though they do play at a faster pace. The pace helps some with Giannis' projection, but he could get put on lock here. The issue is more that shooting guard doesn't hold a ton of value and he qualifies there on FanDuel. I'm not looking too much at DraftKings where you can find much better point guard value. But having to roster two SGs on FD does cause some issues. I'm likely inclined to go double cheap here and pay up elsewhere, but Giannis does have upside even at these prices. It's the minutes you need to hit and if he sees run in the upper 30's then he's an interesting pivot off some of the other big salary players tonight.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.06 DK - 44.1
Well no matter what game or slate is being played, I’m always targeting the player(s) that are in the best position to chuck up 30 shots. There is a direct correlation between high usage players and fantasy production. Unless that said player is just having a horribly off night. All things align perfectly for you to consider Melo a lock , viable in all formats for tomorrow’s game against the Sacramento Kings. Derrick Rose is questionable for tomorrow night’s game after being officially ruled out on Wednesday due to significant back spasms. And if he ends up not playing all the Knicks get a boost but the offense will essentially run through Carmelo and his dominant iso attacks. Carmelo traditionally has a high usage running at the rate of 29.3% through the first 8 weeks of regulation play. However without Rose on the floor Carmelo boasts an insane 43.5% usage rate almost thirty percent higher than the 2nd on the list, Brandon Jennings. Yes I know you know what this means. He’s taking all the shots! Oh, and here’s the kicker. Without rose his fantasy points per minute rate jumps up nicely from 1.08 to 1.21. Not the best selling point but you will be able to raise his baseline floor by 3.5-4 points and that is huge for feeling confident when you’re locking in your cash game plays! In a good match-up against Rudy Gay who has a true defensive plus/minus of .56 and a dbpm of -3 indicative of a borderline average defender.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 35 DK - 36.55
Well Barnes certainly burned a bunch of fantasy players that rostered him, myself included dropping an 11 point fantasy dud last game. However this shouldn’t scare you off him. He’s as safe of a cash option as many on this slate as he is a player that clocks over 35 minutes a game and shoots on average 20 times. And he’s not scoring dependent either, Barnes can contribute quite nicely with assists, steals and boards. To me he is currently underpriced industry wide and the best way to leverage the field is always exploiting low price points. Last 4 games he’s scored 14, 42, 32 and 33 fantasy points respectively. And for the icing on the cake I’ll just tell you that Indiana is soft against the shooting forward position giving up on average 37.3 fanduel points a game to them. Also worth noting the Pacers have a horrendous defensive plus/minus of 1.35. I’m definitely going to have a lot of exposure to this guy and most likely in my cash line up!
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 23.23 DK - 25.52
He didn't start last game and yet still saw 33 minutes of run in the blowout to the hands of the Rockets. It's always tough to figure what the Lakers' plans are on any given night. While they are short on depth in the back court, they've also been content starting losers like Huertas. Ingram at low 30's minutes at these prices is worth it against a Suns' team playing at a breakneck pace this season. In plus matchups over the short term (TOR and HOU) he's seen the shot attempts trend in the right direction with looks from three to boot.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 39.67 DK - 41.88
Unlike maybe Melo, and definitely Jennings, I'm willing to play Porzingis regardless of Rose's status. He's seen reduced minutes over the last two games, but some extenuating circumstances led to that limited run. Last game was an epic blowout served to them by the Knicks and the game before against Miami had him in some foul trouble early. We are still seeing the maturation of Zinger as he gets more comfortable taking shots in this offense and, more importantly, gains the trust of the coaching staff. In close games he's nearly guaranteed run in the mid-to-high 30's which boosts his floor considerably. He's taking significantly more three pointers this seaso and knocking them down at a 38% rate. He might get matched up with Boogie tonight, not so good if you are worried about the fouls. But the matchup going the other way is fine and I think he's a chalkier play on FanDuel.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 39.36 DK - 41.51
Millsap can be a weird guy to roster because you need him tom contribute in a number of ways in order to hit value. He isn't great at any one thing from a fantasy perspective, but he does enough around the edges that he's always in play. He's come back from the injury playing well, but does need those steals and blocks to emerge in order to really hit his prices. He isn't an exciting DFS prospect in that you rarely hit crazy upside on his prices. But he can fit a need considering the power forward slot is generally tough with two slots on FanDuel. Millsap should be able to rebound here considering the Bucks allow more than league average boards to opposing bigs.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 26.51 DK - 27.58
He only played 25 minutes the other night, but I think he was in line for way more if the game hadn't gotten completely out of hand. He was pulled in the fourth for Hammons when the game was already way out of hand. With Andrew Bogut on the shelf for some time the Mavs will need Powell to add some (albeit not a ton of) size down low. He isn't starting, but Dallas can't really afford to run Salah Mejri out there for major minutes on a nightly basis. Plus, Dallas can go a little smaller against the Pacers and the game doesn't project to get out of hand with Dallas only five point dogs. Even in limited run Powell was fantastic at these prices putting up a 6/5/5/2/1 line which hit better than 6x value. If he pushes up towards 30 minutes tonight then all the better and I'm willing to take the risk off the bench.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 46.2 DK - 49.5
We can probably put "The Game" at around the 150 mark on Whiteside's personal list of places he wanted to be on Wednesday night against the Hawks. He played 36 minutes of completely disinterested basketball and just couldn't get anything going at either end of the court. It was a disappointing effort for sure, but one I see as an outlier coming on the back-to-back. He's still an elite talent which major double-double upside considering a very thin Heat team needs all the minutes they can get from their core group of remaining players. The issue tonight is the potential blowout to the Cavs who come in as -13 favorites. But the status of the Heat personnel mean that Whiteside could be in line for his minutes even if the game were to get a little out of hand. It's risky for sure, but I think we are still getting value on his price point.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 24.74 DK - 26.05
He was a chalk play on Wednesday night thanks to a cheap tag and the prospect of low 30's minutes now that he's the Magic starting center. He disappointed, coming off a huge game, and we saw the inherent issue with rostering a guy like Bismack. He can be such a zero on the offensive side of the ball that there will be times he totally disappears in the scoring. That is built into his price though and I'm fine going back to him tonight mostly because center is a tough position and I'll likely want to spend up elsewhere. He still has double digit rebounding potential against the Hornets who are below average against opposing centers on the glass.
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View Comments
This is awsome best data I've seen
Very good read! Keep up the great work!
Great read, great insight and a lot of info, thanks!
awesome read. info on some I never thought about.
Awesome info that really helps. Brad really does his research. Keep up the great work!!!
Best read and data yet great job
Phenomenal work! I cant wait for tonight's games to use this info! Thanks
Very nicely written, great research
Great read. nicely done on the research!
Great Content!