Washington Wizards guard John Wall (2) goes to the basket against Los Angeles Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson (6) during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2015, in Washington. The Lakers won 108-104. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
After a crazy Wednesday we settle into a more manageable 6 game Thursday slate. We've got some nightmare matchups (SA, Utah, Memphis), but plenty of solid ones as well. Tougher slates mean our opponents can make more (and bigger) mistakes as well, so let's get to work breaking this thing down.
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Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 48.96 DK - 52.02
Wall was a feature in big tournament winning lineups in his last start, and on a slate with a lot of uncertainty and tough match-ups, he'll be hugely owned tonight. So what's going on with Wall's big break-out? First of all, the Wizards are doing their best Thibodeau impersonation by rolling their big names out for high 30s/low 40s minutes each game, and Wall has played 42+ minutes in 3 of his last 5 games. This has also coincided with Wall having the ball in his hands even more. He's third in the league in time of possession behind Harden and Westbrook, but you get him at a steep discount to either. He also has the best possible match-up in the Denver Nuggets. Pretty sure he's a lock for me everywhere.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 31.24 DK - 33.42
After Wall, though, things drop off pretty dramatically. Rondo was pretty bad in his return from suspension against the Pistons, but he still played 37 minutes of basketball. I'm not sure if he was just mad or unlucky but he seemed to run terribly in terms of both rebounds and assists, and since he is so excellent at both compared to his point guard peers I suspect a return to fantasy relevance here. It's obviously not a terrific match-up, but the Spurs' backcourt D is thinner than usual, and Nicolás Laprovittola has not looked comfortable against athletic point guards so far. I don't expect him to go off or anything, but he should be a solid cash game option.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 25.37 DK - 27.62
And now we're really on the bottom of the barrel. Rodriguez had looked excellent on these prices until his last game, but I'm concerned about more than just his play. Getting yanked in favor of TJ McConnell is not a fantastic sign, and the fact that it happened mid game means he carries more risk than other point guards. He also carries a bunch of upside. In the last game where Embiid played Rodriguez went for 17/4/7 with 3 steals. He also has a great match-up with New Orleans, who have injury issues raising question marks in their back court. I don't think you can call him super safe, but the upside is very real.
Consider: Shelvin Mack if you really just want to go cheap, and only if Rodney Hood is out again. He played 30 minutes when Hood exited last game early and the Jazz are short on shooters and ball handlers. I could see him easily paying his bargain prices on a tough slate tonight.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 34.8 DK - 37.32
I expect that both of the Wizards' starting guards will be hugely owned in cash games tonight. Beal's had a rather tough 3 game stretch, but the coaches haven't lost any confidence in him as evidenced by his 36 and 37 minutes in the last two. He ran bad from the field (making just 39% of his shots) but the fact that he's out there taking them is an excellent sign. The Nuggets are the league's most generous to opposing shooting guards as well, making Beal an easy play if you're looking for floor.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 30.1 DK - 32.15
You know who also has a sneaky floor? Will Barton. I'm writing this before Wednesday's game, but in the 3 games prior Barton supplied 5x+ points per dollar in each of them. On a night with so many match-ups, it's lovely to be able to get him at a discount against the Wizards, who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards on the back of their fast offensive pace. Looks like a great night to go midrange at the two guard spot.
Keep an eye on the Pelicans situation. If Holiday and/or Moore sit again, Langston Galloway looks like a great punt option once again.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 39.46 DK - 41.78
With Hood looking likely to miss this one, I'm feeling great about Gordon Hayward's prospects. He already gets a huge bump from Favors and Hill being out, and Rodney Hood potentially missing this game Hayward might wind up taking every single shot for the Jazz. And the Jazz might lose by a million. But still, the Warriors have played the 3rd fastest PACE in the league this year, and have taken a slight step back defensively. And even if the Jazz are trailing, it only means they'll ask more from Hayward from deep. I love him here even at the higher price range.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 30.89 DK - 33.01
After Hayward, unfortunately, things take a dramatic turn for the worse. The Raptors are a below average match-up for small forwards, so the lineup optimizer is seeing Wiggins more as a high volume high floor guy here. He's locked in for high 30s minutes per game, and his disappearance against Kawhi and the Spurs shouldn't dissuade you too much here (since he was swallowed up by Kawhi). While Carroll is a solid defender, he's not on the same planet as Leonard, especially given his own little injury concerns. While I'm not thrilled about the potential pace of play here, I think Wiggins should pay off in the 5x range the way he had been before his last game.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.2 DK - 41.16
And what about Kawhi himself? He topped 40 fantasy points for the first time since November 25th in his last game, and returns to action here with a pretty favorable game script looming. The Spurs are just 3 point favorites here, and they tend to lean on Leonard much more in close games than when things get out of hand. He's scored 20+ points from the field in each of his last 5 games, and I expect that to continue tonight. The Bulls have been roughly a league average match-up for small forwards this season, and on a night with a lot of tough match-ups, that's worth more than usual.
If Rodney Hood sits, I'd expect Joe Johnson to be the primary beneficiary. He's essentially free, and learning that he was going to play 30 minutes again would put him in must play territory for me in all formats.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 59.3 DK - 61.13
Ahhh, a nice spot to sink in some big salary to get a payoff for the cheap guys. Holiday's increasing minutes haven't caused any issues for Davis, but the 59 shots he's taken in the last 2 games with Holiday banged up have certainly been a welcome sign. Davis has 59+ fantasy points in 8 of the last 10 games, and gets an excellent match-up with the Sixers rotating cast of big men. I'm supposed to be scared of Ersan Ilyasova here? GMAFB. LOL. ROFLCOPTER.
Hmm, maybe we should pretend that never happened. Still, I love Davis in your big money slot tonight.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 23.99 DK - 25.72
The battle for "better Morris" rages on, and at the moment it looks like Markieff is taking a back seat to his equally sized brother. He's still been very reliable on these prices, all things considered. Morris has changed his game recently, lowering his overall usage in favor of a more team-based approach. That's usually not a good thing for a daily fantasy NBA player, but in this case it's giving Markieff the most consistent minutes of his career. And that's excellent. He's averaged better than 5x points per dollar on these prices in his last 4 games, and while the Nuggets are tougher on PFs than they are on guards, Morris just looks like a good value play here.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.01 DK - 32.16
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 25.76 DK - 27.07
Both of these guys fall into a category where they could either go off or be a little bit absent, depending on one major factor - the return of a prominent big man into their lives. Z-Bo only played 22 minutes in his first game back, but if that number goes up, Green's playing time could be in trouble. Ilyasova has played huge minutes the last 2 games (and been great in them) but those sort of came out of nowhere, and Embiid sat one of those games. I consider both of these two huge upside plays with a low enough floor that I wouldn't feel great if they wound up in my cash game squads.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 40.86 DK - 42.84
Embiid Navidad! Or something. The price keeps climbing on Embiid, but it hasn't gotten to the point where we need to think about it very much. He shot a terrible 5/15 against the Nuggets, but still managed 4.5x points per dollar on the combination of his elite paint presence and his world class usage. The Pelicans are up to their old ones this year, ranking 9th worst in the league against opposing centers, and I suspect Embiid will eat them for lunch.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 39.02 DK - 40.68
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 43.62 DK - 45.8
Some options if you don't want to follow the chalk in a big tournament. I like Gasol better for a couple of reasons. He's been super consistent on these prices with the Grizzlies short handed, topping 40 fantasy points in each of his last 4 match-ups. The Trail Blazers don't really field a real post defender, and he should be in a very favorable spot here. As for Towns, he's more of a separation play thanks to his up and down track record recently, but he's the exact type of player that Valanciunas struggles to cover. He'll be breaking down Valanciunas from the foul line all night, and we could be in store for a big performance.
For cash games, though? I'll take the Process all night long.
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View Comments
Hayward Out
No hayward, No Hill, No Hood.... who are the best picks in this game??? Joe Johnson? Trey Lyles? Mack?