Daily Fantasy NBA Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 12/6/16

Wow is this a weird slate. We've got a ton of slow teams like the Grizz, Jazz, Magic, Pistons and Spurs who usually spell death for DFS lineups. But that's half the freaking schedule so what are we left with? It's going to be a tricky one so let's get into it.

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Point Guard

Goran Dragic FD - $7000 DK - $7300
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 35.64 DK - 37.88
With Miami so banged up, all of the usage belongs to Dragic. He's put up a ton of shots in the short term, averaging 20 looks per game over the last two good for a 22/7/7 line. He's most of what they are doing on offense and without a guy like Waiters in the lineup, more of the offensive burden falls on Goran. The Knicks have allowed less than league average scoring to opposing point guards this season, but that's basically the case with this whole slate. It's chocked full of slow and defensively-sound teams. That's going to make some plays we don't feel amazing about. But Dragic is controlling so much of the offense right now that I think you can roll him out in cash games.

John Wall FD - $9500 DK - $8700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 45.43 DK - 48.47
This is a little risky on the back-to-back and he ran 36 minutes last night. The Wiz have been somewhat careful with his minutes this year considering they don't have much to play for and I suppose he's their future. Wall is one of the few high priced guys on this slate and you'll need to roster these guys when possible. He's not a great scorer mostly thanks to his lack of jump shooting, but he does everything else on the court and is electric in transition. Keep an ear out if the Wiz are going to manage his minutes here because that will effect his upside.

Sergio Rodriguez FD - $4600 DK - $5000
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 24.39 DK - 26.47
With Bayless out, the Sixers have needed Sergio to play solid minutes at the point guard. He's getting up shots in the short term and actually gets a fantasy boost when Embiid doesn't play. Considering the latter played yesterday, he won't play tonight on the back-to-back and Sergio (along with the rest of Philly) is in line for a usage boost without their star. It isn't a great matchup against the slow Grizz, but he's a price play plain and simple.

Shooting Guard

Rodney McGruder FD - $3800 DK - $3600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 21.75 DK - 23.44
Wayne Ellington FD - $4300 DK - $4200
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 21.84 DK - 23.5
With Dion Waiters out and Josh Richardson looking questionable, there could be a lot of minutes for these two tonight. They've both been called into major minutes in the short term with the Heat incredibly understaffed and Miami employing a ton of three guard sets. Both guys need all of the available minutes to hit value at these salaries. Ellington needs to score and shoot a fair amount seeing as how does very little else on the court. McGruder can rebound a bit and will take a couple of threes per game. But neither of these guys has a tremendous amount of upside. Their floor is built in on the potential run and that's the key. Keep on eye on the Richardson news, though James Johnson sitting could also open up minutes on a really banged up team.

Gerald Henderson FD - $3700 DK - $3500
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 19.4 DK - 20.63
He only saw 26 minutes last night, but as you'll see a theme with these picks, the Sixers are missing a ton of bodies for this game. Henderson eats up some of Covington's minutes Philly can't spread his run down the line because guys like Saric and Ersan (see below) will be needed to fill the big man minutes. Henderson needs to knock down the three and get on it on the defensive end to hit his value. He doesn't do a ton more, but he's still nearly free on both sites and I think the minutes are there tonight.

Small Forward

Gordon Hayward FD - $8100 DK - $8200
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 40.48 DK - 42.95
His usage takes such a spike in this offense when George Hill and Derrick Favors are off the court. Yesterday's game aside, this is a guy getting up 16-19 shots per game on the regular with the periphery stats contributing enough to raise the floor. Hayward's a scorer first and faces a bottom third defensive efficiency team in Phoenix who also plays at the fastest pace in the league. It's only a minutes' issue that more Jazz aren't on this list tonight. I suspect he's another bigger money guy who ends up as the chalk.

Kawhi Leonard FD - $8300 DK - $7800
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 40.33 DK - 42.29
It isn't the usage of the role that's been an issue for Kawhi this season but rather the minutes. He's seen low 30's in run with even the game on the line and that's a concern for projecting his top line upside. Because otherwise, dude's been everything you want on the fantasy line with 24/6/3 on the season and that's even with a decreased shooting percentage off his career lines. Now some of that likely stems from taking slightly worse shots as a result of being "the man" for San Antonio. With more responsibility often comes slightly worse looks. But he should see his run against a fiesty-er Spur's squad.

Marcus Morris FD - $5000 DK - $5100
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 24.13 DK - 25.82
He's logging a ton of minutes for Detroit in the short term and has been good for more than 12 shots per game regardless. Morris needs to knock down his threes, hit the short jumpers off the back downs and post game while also chipping in a rebound and assist here or there. The latter two aren't a big part of his profile but matter when adjusting him for cash games. He has a solid opportunity against the Bulls tonight as he's versatile enough to stay on the court to cover guys like Butler. I like the minutes upside on Morris and understand folks don't like rostering him.

Power Forward

Dario Saric FD - $4100 DK - $4900
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 25.23 DK - 27.42
Ersan Ilyasova FD - $4600 DK - $4600
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 23.4 DK - 25.16
With Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor out tonight you should see major minutes from both of these guys. Ersan played major minutes last night and should something around the same run tonight with the Sixers almost totally devoid of big men. Look, I get the inherent problems with these picks tonight. Philly plays fast and loose with its player minutes and you can for sure catch the wrong end of a 25 minute night on the outside of value. But Philly is so short on big men tonight that I think you just can't help but see these guys out there on the court for major minutes. Both can hit threes and rebound enough for their respective price points that even pairing them together is fine. The issue is the matchup with the Grizz, but almost every team on this slate is slow. I don't mind double stacking Saric and Ersan in cash (and yes pigs are flying outside).

Markieff Morris FD - $4700 DK - $5200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 25.68 DK - 27.61
Well Markieff made us run the gamut of emotions last night with a first half that had folks standing on the ledge of sanity only to turn it around in the second and drive up and over value. This is the issue with dudes like "Kief who don't rebound especially well for the position, but rely a ton on scoring to hit their mark. He's only grabbing about 5 rebounds a game and doesn't do much else in the box score so he needs the jump shot to knock so you don't tilt off the planet with his performance. Orlando's a slow, sort of defensively sound team so you don't love the matchup. But again, that's the theme of the night.

Center

Hassan Whiteside FD - $9100 DK - $9600
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 49.7 DK - 51.63
He'll likely be one of the highest owned players on the slate and for good reason. Whiteside, for an under-staffed Miami team, has one of the highest floors of anyone on the slate. It feels nuts saying thart considering Hassan's make-up and skill set. But dude's locked into double digit rebounds on these minutes and sees a major usage bump when guys like Waiters are off the court. The Knicks have no one on the interior who can handle his game and Whiteside's the clear cash game play in this price tier. It doesn't take much (if any) finagling to afford his tag and his per minute numbers have him as an easy 20+-10+ in our system.

Andre Drummond FD - $7800 DK - $7500
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 41.33 DK - 43
Speaking of double-doubles, Drummond's a candidate for these on a nightly basis if only for one thing: the minutes. Dre's seen his fair share of buzzed off minutes in the past, and that's a concern. He isn't a great interior defender and can't shoot free throws. Those two negatives can, at times, combine to see him sit for extended periods. But the Bulls don't have a crazy great interior presence and I think Drummond's a candidate to stay on the court. He's a fantastic DraftKings' price where the bonus for the double-double comes into play and he's averaging an 11/11 this season.

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